Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company has significant resource and cost advantages, with ongoing projects such as the joint mining development and the scandium-vanadium new materials park [1][15]. - The earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered due to pressure on titanium dioxide prices, with EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.20, 1.59, and 1.93 RMB respectively [6][13]. - The target price is set at 22.22 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 18.48 for 2025 [6][13]. Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of 27.54 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.17 billion RMB, down 32.79% year-on-year [6][14]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.06 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.21% year-on-year, but a turnaround in net profit to 686 million RMB [6][14]. - The company’s titanium dioxide capacity stands at 1.51 million tons/year, and sponge titanium capacity at 80,000 tons/year, both leading globally [6][15]. Project Developments - Numerous projects are underway, including the joint mining projects and the planned scandium-vanadium new materials park, which will include various production capacities for vanadium and aluminum products [6][15]. - The company is also making progress in overseas exploration and base construction [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longbai Group (002601.SZ) with a current price of 16.42 CNY [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was under pressure due to increased asset impairment and financial expenses, but profitability is expected to improve in Q1 2025 as prices recover [1][5][6] - Longbai Group is the largest titanium dioxide producer globally, with a complete industrial chain from mining to processing [7] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards due to the decline in titanium dioxide prices and increased financial costs, but maintains a positive outlook for 2027 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Longbai Group achieved revenue of 27.51 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.80%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.79% to 2.17 billion CNY [4][5] - Q4 2024 saw a revenue of 6.65 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.20%, but a net loss of 395 million CNY, a significant decline compared to the previous year [4][5] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 7.06 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.21%, but net profit recovered to 686 million CNY, indicating a positive trend [4][6] Market Dynamics - The titanium dioxide business generated revenue of 18.98 billion CNY in 2024, with a sales volume of 1.254 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% and 8.3% respectively [5] - The average selling price of titanium dioxide in Q4 2024 decreased by 4.7% quarter-on-quarter and 10.3% year-on-year, impacting the company's gross margin [5][6] Cost Structure and Profitability - The gross margin for the titanium dioxide business was 31.4% in 2024, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, but the overall gross margin in Q4 2024 fell to 19.0% due to price declines [5][6] - Financial expenses surged by 195% year-on-year to 701 million CNY in 2024, with Q4 expenses reaching 399 million CNY [5][6] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.96 billion CNY, 3.37 billion CNY, and 3.75 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a recovery as market conditions improve [7][9] - The company is actively enhancing its upstream raw material supply to support its production capabilities [7]

Core Viewpoint - Longbai Group reported a revenue of 27.539 billion RMB for FY 2024, a 3% year-on-year increase, but a 33% decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.169 billion RMB, with a cash dividend of 6 RMB per 10 shares [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY 2024, the company achieved revenue of 19 billion RMB from titanium dioxide and 2.7 billion RMB from sponge titanium, with year-on-year growth of 7% and 17% respectively [2] - The gross margin for titanium dioxide was 31%, up 2.8 percentage points, while sponge titanium's gross margin was 3%, down 14.8 percentage points [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.060 billion RMB, a 3% year-on-year decrease, and a net profit of 686 million RMB, down 28% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - The company is experiencing a trend of increasing sales volume but decreasing prices, with titanium dioxide prices down 10% year-on-year and sponge titanium prices down 3% in Q1 2025 [2] - The company exported 500,000 tons of titanium dioxide from January to March, a 2% year-on-year increase [2] - The decline in prices is attributed to lower prices for sponge titanium and iron concentrate, as well as underperformance in the new energy sector [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its integrated supply chain strategy, focusing on upstream raw material security and developing key projects such as the joint development of the Hongge North Mine and the Xujia Gou Iron Mine [3] - Longbai Group is also expanding its overseas presence, planning to invest 100 million USD in its wholly-owned subsidiary, Baililian Hong Kong, to support international business expansion [3] - The company aims to establish a full-process internationalization from raw materials to sales, responding to trade challenges such as anti-dumping investigations in the EU, Brazil, and India [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.91 billion RMB, 3.76 billion RMB, and 4.29 billion RMB for 2025-2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company faced performance pressure due to a downturn in the chemical raw materials industry, particularly affecting its titanium dioxide and related products. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 27.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.80%, but net profit dropped by 32.79% to 2.169 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company continues to enhance its competitiveness through vertical integration and global expansion, which are expected to support long-term growth despite current market challenges [6][8]. - The company reported a significant increase in titanium sponge production and sales, with production rising by 34.56% to 69,700 tons and sales increasing by 42.57% to 66,900 tons in 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company generated a total revenue of 27.513 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.169 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 32.79% year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of 6.647 billion yuan, with a net loss of 395 million yuan [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 25.01%, down by 1.69 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin decreased by 3.99 percentage points to 8.14% [5][6]. Product Performance - The titanium dioxide segment showed resilience with a production of 1.2955 million tons, up 8.74%, and sales of 1.2545 million tons, up 8.25%, generating revenue of 18.980 billion yuan, a 6.82% increase [4][5]. - The titanium sponge segment also performed well, with revenue reaching 2.647 billion yuan, a 16.71% increase, driven by a production increase of 34.56% [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on vertical integration by extending its supply chain upstream, which has improved its cost competitiveness. In 2024, it produced 1.493 million tons of titanium concentrate, all for internal use [6][8]. - The company is actively expanding its global footprint to mitigate the impact of anti-dumping investigations in various regions, aiming to establish overseas production bases and enhance its market share [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Longbai Group [2][5]. Core Views - Longbai Group's performance is under short-term pressure, but it continues to enhance its industrial chain layout [3][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 27.539 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.79% to 2.169 billion yuan [3]. - The core business of titanium dioxide remains strong, with revenue from this segment growing by 6.82% to 18.980 billion yuan in 2024, and sales volume increasing by 8.25% to 1.2545 million tons [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.060 billion yuan, down 3.21% year-on-year, and a net profit of 686 million yuan, down 27.86% [3]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 25.01% due to falling iron ore prices and underperformance in the new energy sector [3][5]. - The company forecasts net profits of 2.778 billion, 3.105 billion, and 3.639 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.17, 1.30, and 1.53 yuan [5][6]. Industry Positioning - Longbai Group is a leading player in the titanium dioxide industry, with significant production capacities of 1.51 million tons for titanium dioxide and 80,000 tons for sponge titanium [4][7]. - The company is focusing on increasing the proportion of chlorinated titanium dioxide and upgrading its product offerings to higher-end markets [4]. - Longbai Group is actively developing upstream mineral resources to strengthen its supply chain and enhance resource utilization [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company faced performance pressure due to a downturn in the chemical raw materials industry, particularly in titanium dioxide and related products, leading to a 32.79% decline in net profit year-on-year [4][5]. - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on integrated and globalized operations to ensure long-term competitiveness [4][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 27.513 billion yuan in 2024, a 2.80% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 2.169 billion yuan, down 32.79% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 275.13 billion yuan, with a net profit of 21.69 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.79% [4]. - The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 66.47 billion yuan, with a net loss of 3.95 billion yuan [4]. - The company produced 1.2955 million tons of titanium dioxide in 2024, an increase of 8.74% year-on-year, with sales of 1.2545 million tons, up 8.25% [4][5]. Product Segmentation - Titanium dioxide business revenue reached 189.80 billion yuan, a 6.82% increase year-on-year, while sponge titanium production rose to 69,700 tons, a 34.56% increase [5]. - Other segments, including iron and zirconium products, saw revenue declines of 24.54% and 15.13%, respectively [5]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 25.01%, down 1.69 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 8.14%, a decrease of 3.99 percentage points [5]. - The gross margin for the titanium dioxide segment improved to 31.25%, up 2.83 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see earnings per share (EPS) of 1.21 yuan and 1.49 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.56 and 11.00 based on the closing price of 16.39 yuan on April 24, 2025 [8]. - The company is actively pursuing vertical integration and global expansion to enhance its competitive edge and mitigate risks associated with domestic market fluctuations [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Longbai Group (002601) has demonstrated a strong commitment to cash dividends, planning a cash distribution of 2.144 billion yuan for 2024 and an additional 1.186 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, despite fluctuations in profit performance [1][2]. Dividend Performance - The company's dividend payout ratio surged to 172.88% in the first quarter, with a net profit of only 686 million yuan, indicating a trend of distributing nearly all earnings [2]. - Longbai Group's dividend payout ratio reached 98.89% in 2024, retaining only 22 million yuan of undistributed profits at the end of the period [2]. - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 19.39 billion yuan in cash dividends since its listing, surpassing its total equity fundraising of 13.66 billion yuan, resulting in a payout-to-funding ratio of 141.97% [5]. Shareholder Structure - The company's high dividend performance is linked to its unique shareholder structure, which includes the founding family and key figures from the acquired Longmang Titanium Industry [3][8]. - Following the death of the former controlling shareholder Xu Gang, his daughter Xu Ran inherited 20.95% of the shares, making her the current actual controller of the company [8]. Financial Health and Borrowing - Despite high dividend payouts, Longbai Group's borrowing has increased significantly, with short-term loans rising from 4.1 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 9.7 billion yuan by the first quarter of 2024 [3][12]. - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at 61.04% at the end of 2024, remaining above 60% for three consecutive years [13]. Future Dividend Sustainability - The sustainability of high dividend payouts will depend on the company's ability to generate profits and manage funds effectively, especially as it ventures into new business areas like lithium iron phosphate [10][11]. - The company has set a shareholder return plan that may limit dividends if the audited asset-liability ratio exceeds 70% or if significant capital expenditures are anticipated [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Longbai Group [2][5]. Core Views - Longbai Group's performance is under short-term pressure, but it continues to enhance its industrial chain layout [3][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 27.539 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.79% to 2.169 billion yuan [3]. - The core business of titanium dioxide remains strong, with revenue from this segment growing by 6.82% to 18.980 billion yuan in 2024, and sales volume increasing by 8.25% to 1.2545 million tons [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.060 billion yuan, down 3.21% year-on-year, and a net profit of 686 million yuan, down 27.86% [3]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 25.01% due to falling iron ore prices and underperformance in the new energy sector [3][5]. - The company forecasts net profits of 2.778 billion, 3.105 billion, and 3.639 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.17, 1.30, and 1.53 yuan [5][6]. Industry Positioning - Longbai Group is a leading player in the titanium dioxide industry, with significant production capacities of 1.51 million tons for titanium dioxide and 80,000 tons for sponge titanium [4][7]. - The company is focusing on increasing the proportion of chlorinated titanium dioxide and upgrading its product offerings to higher-end markets [4]. - Longbai Group is actively developing upstream mineral resources to strengthen its supply chain and enhance resource utilization [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longbai Group is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on its performance in 2024 but is actively advancing its mining development and internationalization of titanium dioxide [1] - The company reported a revenue of 27.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.79% [5] - The report highlights the potential for capacity expansion in the mining sector, despite challenges such as increased impairment losses and financial expenses [5] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025: Net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, EPS of 1.48 yuan, PE ratio of 11.4 times - 2026: Net profit of 4.69 billion yuan, EPS of 1.96 yuan, PE ratio of 8.6 times - 2027: Net profit of 5.29 billion yuan, EPS of 2.21 yuan, PE ratio of 7.6 times [5][6] - The company’s titanium dioxide production in 2024 was 1.2955 million tons, an increase of 8.74% year-on-year, with sales of 1.2545 million tons, up 8.25% year-on-year [5] - The average prices for titanium concentrate and titanium dioxide in 2024 were 2,181 yuan/ton and 15,572 yuan/ton, respectively [5] Market Performance - The current stock price is 16.39 yuan, with a market capitalization of 39.111 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 32.580 billion yuan [2] - The stock has seen a turnover rate of 50.95% over the past three months [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longbai Group is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on its performance in 2024 but is actively advancing its mining development and internationalization of titanium dioxide [1] - The company reported a revenue of 27.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.79% [5] - The report highlights the potential for capacity expansion in the mining sector and the stability of profitability from titanium concentrate and titanium dioxide [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company produced 1.2955 million tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 8.74% year-on-year, and sold 1.2545 million tons, an increase of 8.25% year-on-year [5] - The average prices for titanium concentrate, titanium dioxide, and sponge titanium in 2024 were 2,181 yuan/ton, 15,572 yuan/ton, and 48,200 yuan/ton, respectively [5] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.52 billion yuan, 4.69 billion yuan, and 5.29 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.48 yuan, 1.96 yuan, and 2.21 yuan [5][6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its overseas market share and establishing overseas production bases to achieve a full-process internationalization from raw materials to sales [5] - Longbai Group is focusing on two key mining projects: the joint development of the Hongge North Mining Area and the development of the Xujia Gou Iron Mine, which are expected to sustain growth in mining capacity [5]