Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the real estate chain chemical products sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in the supply-demand structure of real estate chain chemical products is expected to drive a long-term upward trend. It recommends specific products such as MDI, titanium dioxide, PVC, soda ash, organic silicon, and refrigerants [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the concept of "high-quality development" in real estate, indicating that the supply-demand dynamics for chemical products related to real estate are set to improve, which will support a long-term upward trend in the market [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights key companies to invest in, including: - MDI leader Wanhua Chemical - Titanium dioxide leader Longbai Group - Soda ash leader Boyuan Chemical - Organic silicon leader Hesheng Silicon - Refrigerant leader Juhua Co. - PVC leader Zhongtai Chemical and Xinjiang Tianye [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that while China's housing demand has shifted from aggressive growth, there is still medium-term support for total demand, projected to stabilize at 700-800 million square meters during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans. Factors such as demand improvement, urban renewal, and urbanization are expected to stabilize the overall transaction scale in the industry [3]. Product Applications - The report details the applications of various chemical products in the real estate sector: - MDI is used in environmentally friendly board production and insulation materials for refrigerators - Titanium dioxide is a key white pigment in coatings - PVC is primarily used in the real estate sector, directly influenced by new housing starts and construction progress - Soda ash is essential for producing flat glass and glass products, benefiting from urban renewal projects - Organic silicon adhesives are used in construction for sealing and bonding [3]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report indicates that the demand side is expected to stabilize due to policy support and the stabilization of real estate companies, while the supply side is seeing an end to expansion in many sectors. This combination is anticipated to improve the supply structure and alleviate competitive pressures [3].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the Chemical ETF (516020) experiencing fluctuations before a significant increase, closing up 1.14% after reaching a peak intraday gain of 1.56% [1][6] - Key stocks in the sector include Zhongjian Technology, which surged by 7.54%, and Hebang Biology, which rose by 7%, along with other notable gains from Longbai Group, Luxi Chemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical [1][7] - Recent price increases in basic chemical products have been reported, with sulfur prices reaching a near ten-year high, prompting the phosphate fertilizer industry to take measures to stabilize supply and prices [9] Group 2 - According to Huafu Securities, the chemical industry has undergone a bottoming process in profitability and valuation, with expectations for a recovery in 2026 as the industry enters a new phase of supply-demand rebalancing [3][9] - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, covering stocks related to AI computing power, anti-involution policies, robotics, and new energy, providing a potentially efficient way to invest in the sector [3][9] - The ETF's performance is supported by the recent upward trends in the prices of key chemical products, indicating a favorable market environment for investors [9]

Group 1 - The chemical raw materials sector increased by 1.74% on January 22, with Xue Tian Salt Industry leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] - Notable gainers in the chemical raw materials sector included Xue Tian Salt Industry (+7.47%), Longbai Group (+6.38%), and Luxi Chemical (+5.08%) [1] Group 2 - The chemical raw materials sector experienced a net outflow of 233 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of approximately 11.85 million yuan [2] - The top individual stock in terms of net inflow from institutional investors was Baofeng Energy, with a net inflow of 141 million yuan [3] - Xue Tian Salt Industry had a net inflow of 57.98 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail investors [3]

1月22日，龙佰集团涨5.08%，截至发稿，报21.73元/股，成交5.95亿元，换手率1.41%，总市值518.10亿 元。龙佰集团股价已经连续3天上涨，区间累计涨幅4.66%。 资料显示，龙佰集团股份有限公司位于河南省焦作市中站区冯封办事处，成立日期1998年8月20日，上 市日期2011年7月15日，公司主营业务涉及从事钛白粉、锆制品和硫酸铝等产品的生产与销售。主营业 务收入构成为：钛白粉64.99%，海绵钛11.17%，铁系产品8.77%，其他(补充)4.59%，新能源材料 3.95%，锆系制品3.86%，其他2.66%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，信达澳亚基金旗下1只基金重仓龙佰集团。信澳鑫悦智选6个月持有期混合A（019692）三季 度持有股数2600股，占基金净值比例为0.39%，位居第五大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约2730 元。连续3天上涨期间浮盈赚取2392元。 信澳鑫悦智选6个月持有期混合A（019692）成立日期2023年12月22日，最新规模155.39万。今年以来收 益1.44%，同类排名7203/8843；近一年收益4.22%，同类排名7407/8096；成立以来收益1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 1.24% as of January 22, 2026, driven by significant gains in stocks such as Hebang Biotechnology and Zhongjian Technology [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) has seen a net inflow of over 870 million yuan in the last five days and nearly 1.2 billion yuan in the last ten days [3][10]. - Key stocks in the sector include Hebang Biotechnology, which surged over 9%, and Zhongjian Technology, which rose over 6% [1][8]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - Dongfang Securities is optimistic about the chemical industry, citing a collective shift in corporate strategies that could lead to improved market conditions [3][10]. - The report highlights five areas of focus: MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle chips [3][10]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Huaxin Securities notes that while the overall chemical industry remains weak, certain sub-sectors like lubricants have outperformed expectations [3][11]. - Investment opportunities are suggested in glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [3][11]. Group 4: ETF Structure - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [4][11]. - The remaining 50% is diversified across leading stocks in phosphate fertilizers, fluorine chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizers [4][11].

Summary of Conference Call on Chemical Materials in Commercial Aerospace Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace sector has a significant demand for specialty chemical materials, including carbon fiber, epoxy resin, ceramic shells, thermal insulation materials (PI, PET), and high-temperature alloys (containing chromium salts, tantalum, and niobium) due to their superior performance and adaptability to space environments [1][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Ceramic Shells**: The highest value chemical material in satellite manufacturing, with a single satellite requiring approximately 1 million yuan worth of ceramic shells. If 4,000 satellites are launched over three years, the market size could reach 4 billion yuan, presenting substantial opportunities for suppliers [1][4][6]. - **Carbon Fiber**: Used extensively in satellites, with each satellite utilizing tens to hundreds of kilograms. The price ranges from hundreds of thousands to millions per ton, indicating a broad market potential as a significant growth point in commercial aerospace chemical materials [1][4][6]. - **Tantalum and Niobium Alloys**: Although their overall usage is relatively low, they are crucial components in rockets. The sales volume may decrease due to advancements in rocket reusability technology [2][5]. Notable Companies and Market Opportunities - **Guocera Materials**: A core supplier of ceramic shells, holding a significant market share in domestic satellite launches. The company is expected to significantly enhance its performance in the commercial aerospace sector [1][6]. - **Zhenhua Co., Ltd.**: Produces specialized products benefiting from environmental regulations and military demand growth, showing continuous economic improvement and reasonable valuation, making it a company to watch in commercial aerospace applications [1][6]. - **Dongcai Technology**: Leading in the field of bismaleimide resin, indicating a strong position in the market [1][6]. - **Longbai Group**: Produces titanium materials and other additives for aerospace products, demonstrating significant advantages in its niche market [1][6]. Additional Important Points - The materials used in satellites must withstand extreme temperature variations and strong electronic radiation while maintaining high precision. Common materials include carbon fiber reinforced resin composites, epoxy resin, and bismaleimide resin [3]. - Thermal insulation materials such as PI, PET, and polyester short fibers are also essential for satellite applications [3][4].

Group 1 - The chemical raw materials sector increased by 0.17% on January 21, with Xinjinlu leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] - Notable gainers in the chemical raw materials sector included Xinjinlu, which rose by 10.03% to a closing price of 17.99, and Jinrui Mining, which increased by 10.00% to 15.18 [1] Group 2 - The chemical raw materials sector experienced a net outflow of 232 million yuan from institutional funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 306 million yuan [2] - Major stocks with significant net inflows included Xinjinlu with 177 million yuan and Baofeng Energy with 104 million yuan [3] - Conversely, stocks like Huarong Chemical and Xinjiang Tianye faced declines of 4.72% and 4.15%, respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In the previous two cyclical bull markets, alpha leading stocks significantly outperformed the basic chemical sector. These leaders possess both supply-demand improvements and cost advantages, leading to price elasticity and sustainable low-cost expansion. In cyclical bull markets, they exhibit performance drivers of volume and price increases, providing excess returns for investors [2][6][38]. - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, Yangnong Chemical, Huafeng Chemical, and Boyuan Chemical [2][6][38]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Why Focus on Leading Stocks in Cyclical Bull Markets? - The PPI (Producer Price Index) has shown a continuous narrowing of decline and is expected to turn positive by October 2025. This indicates a potential recovery in industrial product pricing and an improvement in market demand and supply conditions. The chemical industry, as a key industrial raw material, is likely to reflect these changes first, suggesting a transition from demand stagnation to a new round of inventory replenishment or capacity adjustment [4][14]. Performance of Alpha Leaders in Previous Cyclical Bull Markets - The report analyzes the stock selection and performance of alpha leaders during the last two cyclical bull markets (2016-2018 and 2020-2021). The selected stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, and Yangnong Chemical, with the addition of Huafeng Chemical and Boyuan Chemical in the second round. The performance data shows that these leaders significantly outperformed the basic chemical index [5][18]. - In the first cycle (2016-2018), the highest stock price increases for these leaders were 488.9% for Wanhua Chemical, 281.4% for Hualu Hengsheng, 147.7% for Longbai Group, and 247.5% for Yangnong Chemical, with an average increase of 291.4%. The basic chemical index saw a maximum increase of around 39% during the same period [18][19]. - In the second cycle (2020-2021), the highest increases were 311.0% for Wanhua Chemical, 276.5% for Hualu Hengsheng, 314.2% for Longbai Group, 188.0% for Yangnong Chemical, 290.1% for Huafeng Chemical, and 728.7% for Boyuan Chemical, with an average increase of 351.4% compared to a maximum of 136% for the basic chemical index [18][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality leading companies for investment opportunities, as they are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements and cost advantages. The overall chemical sector is currently at a low point, but with anticipated global economic growth, demand for chemical products is expected to increase. The report also highlights the potential for a recovery in PPI and chemical prices in 2026 [6][38][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience an upward cycle due to the implementation of "anti-involution" policies in China and the accelerated exit of some European facilities [29] - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitution of semiconductor materials from Japan due to rising geopolitical tensions, which could benefit various companies in the sector [5] - The chromium salt industry is undergoing a value reassessment driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with a projected supply-demand gap of 340,900 tons by 2028 [8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical industry has shown strong relative performance with a 1-month increase of 10.7%, 3-month increase of 9.6%, and a 12-month increase of 45.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] Price Trends - Key products such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon have seen significant price increases, supported by policy guidance and industry self-discipline [12] - The price of chromium salts has remained stable, with metal chromium priced at 82,000 CNY/ton as of January 9, 2026 [15] Investment Opportunities - Focus on companies with low-cost expansion capabilities, such as Wanhu Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as those in sectors with improving market conditions like chromium salts and phosphates [6][9] - High dividend yield opportunities are identified in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and China National Chemical [10] Key Company Tracking - Companies such as Dongfang Shenghong and Huabei Yihua are highlighted for their earnings potential, with projected EPS growth for 2026 [30] - The report tracks specific price movements for various chemicals, including a notable increase in the price of ammonium phosphate and a stable price for urea [17][19]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The basic chemical sector is likely at the bottom of its cycle, with no need to wait for significant improvements in fundamentals before investing. Stock prices often lead the market, indicating potential investment opportunities when future fundamental changes are anticipated [2][4]. Key Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2026 are concentrated in traditional cyclical industries and technology materials, particularly in AI-related sectors such as energy storage materials (e.g., lithium carbonate) and storage materials (e.g., Yake Technology) [1][6]. - Recommended leading companies in the chemical industry include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua Co., due to their low valuations and high profit elasticity [1][8]. Company-Specific Insights Wanhua Chemical - Strongly recommended as a top investment choice due to its outlier effect and continuous growth catalysts. Expected revenue for 2026 is projected to reach 400 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 16 billion yuan [1][12][14]. - The company has a significant profit increase potential with every 1,000 yuan increase in MDI and TDI prices, translating to a net profit increase of 3.4 billion yuan [12][14]. Hualu Hengsheng - The company is expected to achieve annualized quarterly performance exceeding 5 billion yuan in 2026, supported by multi-category layout and technological upgrades [1][17][18]. Dongcai Technology - Notable for its advantages in new energy materials, with expectations to turn losses into profits as the overall profitability in the new energy sector improves [1][13][15]. Baofeng Energy - Expected to maintain stable annual profits between 12 billion to 13 billion yuan following the release of new capacity at its Ningxia base. The company benefits from the cyclical changes in the coal chemical industry and has diversified its product offerings [3][19][20]. Industry Trends and Signals - The potassium fertilizer industry is expected to experience tight supply and demand in 2026, maintaining high prices, while the phosphate market outlook remains stable with manageable supply increases [3][22][23]. - The tire industry is impacted by EU anti-dumping policies, prompting leading companies to expand overseas to increase market share [3][27][28]. - The spandex industry is at a cyclical bottom, with potential supply-side clearing effects anticipated due to the bankruptcy of a major player, which could improve market conditions [3][34][35]. Additional Insights - Investment in underperforming sectors is justified as they have likely reflected most negative factors in their stock prices, presenting potential for positive marginal changes [11]. - The refrigerant industry, while considered an "old story," shows strong certainty and potential for long-term investment due to ongoing price support [24]. - The organic silicon industry is expected to see price increases driven by domestic demand and external supply constraints, with companies like Dongyue showing significant elasticity [25][26]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted a range of investment opportunities across various sectors within the chemical industry, emphasizing the importance of leading companies and emerging trends. Investors are encouraged to consider both cyclical recovery and technological advancements when making investment decisions.