牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 9 月 25 日召开的第 四届董事会第二十九次会议审议通过了《关于回购公司股份的议案》，公司拟使 用自有资金或自筹资金以集中竞价交易的方式回购公司发行的人民币普通股（A 股），回购总金额不低于人民币 30 亿元且不超过人民币 40 亿元（均含本数），回 购价格不超过人民币 58.60 元/股（含本数）。按回购金额上限人民币 40 亿元、回 购价格上限 58.60 元/股测算，预计可回购股数约为 6,825.94 万股，占公司目前总 股本的 1.25%；按回购金额下限人民币 30 亿元、回购价格上限 58.60 元/股测算， 预计可回购股数约为 5,119.45 万股，占公司目前总股本的 0.94%。具体回购股份 的数量以回购期满时实际回购的股份数量为准。公司本次回购的股份将全部用于 员工持股计划或股权激励计划，实施期限自公司董事会审议通过回购方案之日起 12 个月内。具体内容详见公司 2024 年 9 月 27 日披露的《第四届董事会第二十 九次会议决议公告》（公告编号：2024-061）、《关于回购公司股份方案的公告暨回 购报告书》（公告编号：202 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][4][10] Core Views - The company reported a significant turnaround in profitability, with a net profit of 9.652 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 930.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 200.85% [4][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.31 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.505 billion yuan, which accounts for 40.06% of the net profit for the first nine months of 2024 [4][10] - The company aims to reduce its breeding costs to 13 yuan/kg by the end of 2024, with the average cost in Q3 2024 being close to 13.7 yuan/kg [4][10] - The company's balance sheet is steadily improving, with a debt-to-asset ratio decreasing to 58.38% by the end of Q3 2024 [4][10] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic pig breeding industry, with a focus on cash flow generation and higher dividend returns compared to the industry [4][10] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total net profit of 10.481 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability compared to the previous year [4][10] - The company sold a total of 17.755 million pigs in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][10] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 15.26 billion yuan, 25.182 billion yuan, and 22.872 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.79 yuan, 4.61 yuan, and 4.18 yuan [4][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1][9]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated solid profitability, with a significant increase in net profit by 668.9% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 10.481 billion yuan [1]. - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns, proposing a total cash dividend of 4.505 billion yuan, which constitutes 40.06% of its net profit for the same period [1]. - The company has initiated a share repurchase plan amounting to 3-4 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in its fundamentals and supporting employee incentives and management operations [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 96.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.64% [1]. - The company sold 50.144 million pigs from January to September 2024, marking a 6.7% increase year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of pigs in September was 18.65 yuan/kg, up 17.9% year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 30.84%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.30 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 20.8 percentage points [1]. Shareholder Returns - The company has revised its dividend policy to distribute at least 40% of its distributable profits in cash annually, up from 20% [1]. - The proposed dividend distribution of 4.505 billion yuan is in response to national calls for increased cash dividends [1]. Management and Strategy - The company continues to optimize breeding management and cost control, with total costs in September dropping to slightly below 13.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of over 2 yuan/kg since the beginning of the year [1]. - The company is focused on maintaining a competitive edge in breeding management and cost advantages, which are expected to sustain profitability in the long term [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a significant turnaround in profitability, with revenue of 96.775 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.481 billion yuan, compared to a loss in the same period last year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 39.909 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.652 billion yuan, showing a substantial improvement in profitability [2] - The company's pig farming business saw stable growth, with 50.144 million pigs sold in the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [2] - The company's pig slaughtering and meat processing business processed 7.97 million pigs in the first nine months of 2024, with a capacity utilization rate of 37%, resulting in a loss of approximately 650 million yuan [2] - The company's pig farming costs have been continuously optimized, with the full cost of pig farming dropping to below 13.7 yuan/kg in September 2024, a decrease of over 2 yuan/kg compared to the beginning of the year [2] - The company announced a profit distribution plan for the first three quarters of 2024, proposing to distribute a cash dividend of 8.31 yuan per 10 shares (tax included), with a total dividend of 4.505 billion yuan (tax included), accounting for 40.06% of the company's net profit from January to September 2024 [2] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 133.371 billion yuan, 136.809 billion yuan, and 134.482 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 17.6 billion yuan, 15.577 billion yuan, and 16.304 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 14x, 15x, and 15x, respectively [3] - The company's ROE is expected to be 23%, 18%, and 17% for 2024-2026, respectively [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 19%, 17%, and 18% for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The company's net profit margin is expected to be 13%, 11%, and 12% for 2024-2026, respectively [8] Operational Performance - The company's pig farming production indicators have been continuously optimized, with a survival rate of nearly 85% in September 2024, a PSY of over 28, a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.87 during the fattening stage, and a daily weight gain of 783g for fattening pigs [2] - The company's total assets turnover rate is expected to be 0.68, 0.68, and 0.63 for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The company's inventory turnover rate is expected to be 2.57, 2.65, and 2.54 for 2024-2026, respectively [8] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/B ratio is expected to be 3.19, 2.77, and 2.44 for 2024-2026, respectively [6] - The company's P/S ratio is expected to be 1.80, 1.76, and 1.79 for 2024-2026, respectively [6] - The company's EV/EBITDA is expected to be 7.92, 7.79, and 7.05 for 2024-2026, respectively [6]

牧原股份（002714.SH）2024 年三季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] Q3 业绩持续释放，分红比例上调提振投资信心 2024 年 11 月 01 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 10 月 30 日发布 2024 年三季度报告，2024 年前季度实现营 业收入 967.8 亿元，同比+16.6%；实现归母净利润 104.8 亿元，同比 +668.9%。2024Q3 实现营收 399.1 亿元，同比+28.3%，环比+30.5%；实现 归母净利润 96.5 亿元，同比+930.2%，环比+200.9%。 ➢ 头均盈利大幅提升，养殖产能保持稳定。2024 年前三季度生猪养殖业务实 现营收 953.5 亿元，同比+18.1%；共计出栏生猪 5014.4 万头，同比+6.7%， 其中商品猪 4513.2 万头，仔猪 460.7 万头，种猪 40.5 万头；销售均价 16.3 元 /公斤，同比+10.9%。2024Q3 公司销售生猪 1775.7 万头，销售均价为 18.9 元/kg。公司养殖成本持续下降，2024 年前三季度公司肉猪养殖完全成本 15.2 元/kg，其中 2024Q3 已降至 ...

证券研究报告：农林牧渔 | 公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 股票投资评级 牧原股份(002714) 买入|维持 个股表现 -25% -19% -13% -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 2023-10 2024-01 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 牧原股份 农林牧渔 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------| | | | | 公司基本情况 | | | 最新收盘价（元） | 43.90 | | 总股本 / 流通股本（亿股） 总市值 / 流通市值（亿元） | 54.65 / 38.11 2,399 / 1,673 | | 52 周内最高 / 最低价 | 49.35 / 35.22 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 62.1% | | 市盈率 | -55.57 | | 第一大股东 | 秦英林 | 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 ...

农林牧渔/养殖业 公 司 研 究 牧原股份（002714.SZ） 2024 年 10 月 31 日 成本优势显著业绩高兑现，高分红彰显长期投资价值 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 陈雪丽（分析师） 王高展（联系人） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123060055 成本优势显著业绩高兑现，高分红彰显长期投资价值，维持"买入"评级 公司发布 2024 年三季报，2024Q1-Q3 营收 967.75 亿元(同比+16.64%)，归母净利 润 104.81 亿元(同比+668.90%)。其中单 Q3 营收 399.09 亿元(同比+28.33%)，归 母净利润 96.52 亿元(同比+930.20%)。预计后市生猪供给逐步恢复，猪价承压， 我们下调公司 2024-2026 年盈利预测，预计公司 2024-2026 年归母净利润为 188.31/158.28/137.99 亿元（原预测分别为 253.28/286.16/206.74 亿元），对应 EPS 分别为 3.45/2.90/2.52 ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|牧原股份（002714） 业绩表现亮眼，股东回报超预期 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月30日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司披露 2024 年三季度报告，第三季度实现营收 399.09 亿元，同比增长 28.33%；归母净利 润 96.52 亿元，同比增长 930.20%。公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 8.31 元(含税)， 分红总额 45.05 亿元(含税)。2024Q3 公司实现生猪出栏 1775.6 万头(同比+6.04%),其中商品 猪1615.0万头（同比-1.98%），仔猪151.3万头（同比+587.73%），种猪9.3万头（同比+102.17%）， 生猪销售均价 18.89 元/公斤(同比+23.30%)。养殖成本持续改善，9 月已降至略低于 13.7 元 /kg。 |分析师及联系人 王明琦 马鹏 SAC：S0590524040003 SAC：S0590524050001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月30日 牧原股份(002 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 30 年 月 日 牧原股份（002714.SZ） 周期景气兑现，分红比例上调 公司公告 2024 年三季度业绩和利润分配预案。2024 年前三季度，公司 实现营业收入 967.75 亿元，同比增长 16.64%；归母净利润 104.81 亿元， 同比增长 668.9%；2024 年第三季度，公司实现营业收入 399.09 亿元， 同比增长 28.33%；归母净利润 96.52 亿元，同比增长 930.2%。前三季 度利润分配方案，每 10 股派发现金红利 8.31 元（含税），分红总额约 45 亿元，占 2024 年前三季度净利润 40.06%。 第三季度出栏量增速加快，成本继续下降。2024 年前三季度，公司生猪出 栏量 5014.4 万头，同比增长 0.3%，其中仔猪 460.5 万头、种猪 40.3 万 头；第三季度，公司生猪出栏量 1775.5 万头，同比增长 6%，其中仔猪 151.2 万头、种猪 9.1 万头。第三季度，我们测算商品猪销售均价 18.9 元 /kg，完全成本 13.7 元/kg，较第二季度下降 0.7 元/kg。 ...

首先欢迎各位参加公司2024年三G报的业绩交流会出席本次交流会的公司领导还有董事会秘书秦军先生接下来我先对公司前三季度的经营情况做一个简单的介绍首先是财务情况2024年前三季度公司实现营业收入967.75亿元同比增长16.64% 实现规模金利润104.81亿元,同比增长668.9%。由于深度市场行情的好转和养殖成本的持续下降,公司在第三季度取得了良好的盈利,实现营业收入399.09亿元,规模金利润96.52亿元。 公司现金流情况及财务结构持续改善,前三季度经营活动产生的现金流金额为291.78亿元,同比增长336.27%。截至2024年3季度末,公司资产负债率为58.38%,较2季度末下降3.43个百分点,预计后续仍将稳步下降至合理的水平。第二是分红情况。 除了三季度的财务报告今天公司也公告了2024年前三季度利润分配方案综合考虑了实际的经营情况充分考虑到广大投资者的合理诉求在符合利润分配原则保证公司正常运营和长远发展的前提下公司拟向全体股东每十股派发现金红利8.3亿元含税分红总额合计45.05亿元含税 占公司2024年前三季度净利润的40.06%同时公司积极响应国家号召提高现金分红比例修订了牧原石井股份有限 ...