我们为什么看好国际航线？ 资本流动与跨境交往共振，国际航线增长迎来新篇章 航空机场 证券研究报告/行业深度报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：杜冲 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn 分析师：李鼎莹 执业证书编号：S0740524080001 Email：lidy@zts.com.cn 重点公司基本状况 简称 股价 EPS PE 评级 （元） 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 中国东航 5.73 -0.37 -0.19 0.03 0.22 0.37 / / 191.00 26.05 15.49 买入 吉祥航空 13.98 0.34 0.42 0.48 0.67 0.90 41.12 33.29 29.39 20.76 15.49 买入 南方航空 7.34 -0.23 -0.09 0.06 0.31 0.47 / / 122.33 23.68 15.62 买入 春秋航空 55.00 2.31 2.33 2.20 2.77 3.51 23 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《为何现阶段我们仍看好航空？——航空 迎来黄金时代之周期持续性探讨》 2026/01/30 《航空"反内卷"初见成效——航空迎来 黄金时代系列报告》 2026/01/20 证券分析师 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 24 日 节中航空量价超预期，飞机供应链 挑战依旧艰巨 看好 ——航空迎来黄金时代之 26 年春运点评 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：油汇大幅波动、经济增速不及预期、航空安全事故风险。 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the new flight route from Shihezi to Zhaosu and Kashgar marks a significant development in regional connectivity and transportation options for travelers [1] Group 1: Flight Operations - The new route is operated by Huaxia Airlines, featuring a daily flight schedule [1] - The outbound flight G52781 departs from Kashgar at 16:55 and arrives in Zhaosu at 18:35, then continues to Shihezi, arriving at 20:15 [1] - The return flight G52782 departs from Shihezi at 21:00, arrives in Zhaosu at 21:55, and then departs for Kashgar, arriving at 00:05 the next day [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [47]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel season has seen a record high in cross-regional personnel flow, with an estimated total of 5.08 billion trips in the first 20 days, averaging 250 million trips per day, which is a 5.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [9][10]. - The aviation sector has shown strong performance in both passenger volume and ticket prices, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume and a 3.3% increase in average ticket prices during the same period [10][11]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is characterized by two main trends: "secondary travel" and "concentrated return trips," driven by a later Spring Festival and longer holiday period [12][13]. Summary by Sections Passenger Volume and Pricing - In the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached 2.376 million, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, while the average ticket price was 1003 yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - The domestic average passenger load factor was 85.1%, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [11]. Market Dynamics - Six listed airlines collectively withdrew 5 aircraft in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply constraint in the industry [26]. - The report highlights that except for Spring Airlines, all other major airlines have shown negative year-on-year growth in capacity deployment, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth [26]. Demand and Future Outlook - The demand structure in the aviation industry is improving, with a rebound in business travel sentiment since September 2025 [34]. - The introduction of visa-free policies for Canada and the UK starting February 17, 2026, is expected to boost cross-border travel demand [34]. - High passenger load factors are anticipated to lead to increased price elasticity, with the potential for significant price increases in 2026 [35]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines for potential elasticity release, as well as low-cost carrier Spring Airlines for its core competitive advantages [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on oil transportation and shipbuilding sectors, recommending stocks such as ST Songfa and China Merchants Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in oil shipping, with VLCC TCE rates rising by 24% to $146,385 per day, and a significant increase in demand leading to higher freight rates [4]. - The global energy chain's valuation is on the rise, driven by long-term capacity utilization and mid-cycle profit expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for shipping rates [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the dry bulk market, with the BDI index recording a slight increase of 1.19% to 2,043 points, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index decreased by 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.77 percentage points, with the aviation sector experiencing the largest decline at -5.16% [5]. - The report notes that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China fell by 1.76%, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 1.19% [5]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates reached a new high of approximately $160,000 per day during the Spring Festival, with expectations for continued strength in the coming weeks [4]. - The report indicates that the average VLCC freight rate increased by 23% week-on-week, reaching $149,564 per day, reflecting tight capacity and strong demand [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The report mentions that the Capesize freight rate decreased by 4.1%, while the Panamax index showed resilience with a 3.5% increase [4]. - The report anticipates that post-holiday demand recovery will be crucial for the dry bulk market, particularly in iron ore shipments [4]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the airline industry is at a turning point, with potential for significant profit growth due to increased passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [4]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4]. Express Delivery - The report notes uncertainties in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and competitive pressures, but highlights the strong market position of leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are reported to be resilient, with the Ministry of Transport data showing a slight decrease in freight volume but overall stability [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season has begun, leading to increased demand in the aviation sector, with airlines showing improved performance and public funds benefiting from early investments [1][2]. Group 1: Spring Festival Travel Demand - The Spring Festival travel season started on February 2, 2026, with strong demand for air travel, expected to reach 95 million passengers during the period, with a daily average of 19,400 flights, a 5% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - On the first day of the Spring Festival, the Civil Aviation Administration of China reported 19,080 flights and 2.19 million passengers, marking a 3.8% increase compared to the same day in 2025 [2][6]. Group 2: Airline Performance Improvement - Major airlines are expected to report significant improvements in their financial performance, with China Eastern Airlines projecting a profit of 200 to 300 million yuan for 2025, and Southern Airlines also expected to turn a profit [3][6]. - China Eastern Airlines anticipates a 10.82% increase in total transport turnover and a 6.68% increase in passenger transport volume for 2025 [3]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Investment Strategy - Several public funds that invested in the aviation sector in Q4 2025 have seen substantial returns, with some funds reporting net value growth rates exceeding 8% since the beginning of the year [1][4]. - Fund managers have strategically increased their holdings in key airlines, with notable increases in shares of China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines [4][5]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for the Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from sustained demand recovery, supply-side optimization, and steady improvement in corporate profitability, supporting valuation recovery [6]. - The investment value of the aviation sector is highlighted by three factors: steady recovery in domestic travel demand, clear performance turning points for airlines, and reasonable historical valuation levels [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air cargo: The outbound air cargo price index at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - Shipping: VLCC freight rates increased by 2%, while the BDI decreased by 10% and SCFI decreased by 4% [7][48]. - The report highlights the expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% for aircraft imports over the next three years, indicating a supply constraint in the aviation sector [31][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends leading companies in express logistics, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the instant retail leader Shunfeng Tongcheng, which is expected to benefit from rapid growth and low valuation [7][31]. - The report also highlights the importance of dividend-paying assets, recommending Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for dividend increases [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from the high demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with a notable increase in passenger volume and airline ticket prices [3][11] - The logistics sector shows promising growth, particularly for companies like ZTO Express, which has reported an increase in market share and profitability [4][17] - The shipping market is experiencing high VLCC rates due to tight capacity and geopolitical premiums, while dry bulk rates have seen a decline [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - On February 2, 2026, the Spring Festival travel season commenced, with a total of 184.986 million people traveling, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same period in 2025. The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.234 million, up 7.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The transportation sector index rose by 1.90% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.17 percentage points [21] - The top-performing segments included air transportation, express delivery, and logistics, with respective increases of 8.15%, 3.76%, and 1.24% [21] Air Travel - The average ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival was 840 yuan, a 3.0% increase from 2025, with an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the aviation sector driven by demand recovery and supportive policies, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates, with the Middle East route commanding $119,447 per day and the West Africa route at $130,293 per day as of February 6 [2][13] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,923 points, indicating a decrease in dry bulk shipping rates [14] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the shipping market dynamics, particularly in relation to geopolitical factors and supply chain developments [15] Logistics - ZTO Express reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2025, with a slight increase in single-ticket revenue and gross profit [4][17] - The company is issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to finance share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [18] - The logistics sector is expected to see growth driven by overseas e-commerce and competitive dynamics among leading express companies [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting potential opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air freight rates at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - The VLCC freight rate rose by 2% week-on-week, while the BDI decreased by 10% [7][48]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the express logistics sector, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the promising outlook for instant retail leader SF Express [7][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends continued investment in the aviation sector due to expected low growth in aircraft supply and a projected 5% increase in passenger numbers [2][31]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of dividend assets, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for increased dividends [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the Spring Festival travel peak, leading to a positive outlook for airline stocks. The report highlights a significant increase in flight operations and passenger volumes during this period, indicating a recovery in demand [4][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for oil transportation to rise, driven by geopolitical factors and structural demand growth, suggesting a favorable investment environment in the shipping sector [6][7] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the aviation sector, particularly focusing on major airlines and low-cost carriers that are expected to benefit from rising ticket prices and improved operational performance [4][6] - It also highlights the logistics and express delivery sectors, noting the positive earnings forecast for companies like SF Express, which is capitalizing on the growth of instant delivery services [6] Aviation Data Tracking - Daily flight operations from February 2 to February 6 showed significant increases for major airlines, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines leading the growth [4] - The average aircraft utilization rates also improved, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency across the sector [4] Shipping Data Tracking - The report tracks various shipping indices, noting a mixed performance in container shipping but a positive trend in oil transportation indices, suggesting a potential upturn in the oil shipping market [6][7] - The report recommends focusing on companies in the oil shipping sector due to limited supply and structural demand growth [6][7] Logistics Data Tracking - The report provides data on logistics performance, indicating a substantial increase in express delivery volumes, which is expected to continue benefiting from the growth in e-commerce and instant delivery services [6] - It highlights the importance of addressing industry challenges such as competition and regulatory changes to maintain profitability [6] Company Performance Tracking - The report includes performance metrics for key companies in the aviation and logistics sectors, showcasing their earnings forecasts and operational improvements [4][6] - It emphasizes the strategic positioning of companies like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to leverage their market positions for growth [4][6]