Group 1 - Alcoa Corp's stock is experiencing a significant surge, reaching three-year highs with a 7.3% increase to $60.67, and has risen approximately 40% in the last month, attracting investor attention [1] - The recent rally occurs amid historically low implied volatility, with the current implied volatility at 45%, which is in the 13th percentile of its annual range [2] - Historical data indicates that after similar trading conditions, Alcoa's stock was higher 60% of the time one month later, averaging an 8% gain, which could position shares at $65.71 if the trend continues [3] Group 2 - The stock's underlying support is noted at the 10-day moving average, providing a buffer in case of a short-term pullback [3]

Core Insights - U.S. equities finished 2025 positively, with the S&P 500 increasing approximately 16%, but the outlook is complicated due to geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties [2][3] Economic Environment - Geopolitical risks have resurfaced, particularly following President Trump's announcement of temporary U.S. control over Venezuela, raising concerns about stability in a significant oil-producing country [2] - Investors are preparing for policy uncertainties, including a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, which may lead to increased market volatility [3] Investment Strategy - In a climate of policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, value investing is recommended for stability, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, reasonable valuations, and durable cash flows [4] - Earnings yield is highlighted as a valuable metric for identifying undervalued stocks, calculated as annual earnings per share divided by market price, providing insight into the anticipated return on investment [6][7] Stock Screening Criteria - A screening criterion of an earnings yield greater than 10% is established, alongside estimated EPS growth for the next 12 months being greater than or equal to the S&P 500, and an average daily trading volume of at least 100,000 [9][10] - Stocks must also have a current price of $5 or more to qualify for consideration [12] Selected Stocks - Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC): Expected 2026 sales growth of 45% and earnings growth of 323%, with EPS estimates rising by $0.85 [13] - Alcoa Corp. (AA): Anticipated 2026 sales growth of 7% and earnings growth of 29%, with EPS estimates increasing by $1.03 [14] - Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK): Projected 2026 sales growth of 19% and earnings growth of 224%, with EPS estimates up by $0.61 [15] - PHINIA Inc. (PHIN): Expected 2026 sales growth of 2% and earnings growth of 15%, with EPS estimates rising by $0.52 [16]

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation's Aluminum segment is experiencing strong demand in North America and Europe, particularly in the electrical and packaging markets, alongside progress on the San Ciprián smelter restart [1][8] Demand and Market Trends - The demand for aluminum has significantly increased due to the rising popularity of lighter and energy-efficient electric vehicles, recycled aluminum, and rechargeable batteries. Additionally, the growth in global air travel has led aircraft manufacturers to increase production, boosting demand for aluminum alloys [2] Production and Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Alcoa's aluminum production rose by 1% sequentially to 579,000 metric tons, with third-party revenues increasing by 4% due to higher average realized prices. The U.S. administration's decision to raise tariffs on imported aluminum to 50% has positively impacted domestic producers like Alcoa by increasing aluminum prices [3][8] - Alcoa anticipates aluminum production for 2025 to be between 2.3 million and 2.5 million tonnes, with shipments expected to range from 2.5 million to 2.6 million tonnes [4][8] Peer Comparison - Constellium SE's Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment saw shipments increase by 4% year-over-year to 820,000 metric tons in the first nine months of 2025, with revenues rising by 17% to $3.2 billion [5] - Olympic Steel, Inc.'s Specialty Metals Flat Products segment achieved its highest shipping volume in three years, with shipments up 6.1% year-over-year to 96,911 metric tons and revenues increasing by 5% to $405.1 million [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Alcoa's shares have increased by 27.2% over the past month, outperforming the industry's growth of 24.1% [7] - The company is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.28X, which is above the industry's average of 11.80X, and holds a Value Score of B [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alcoa's 2025 earnings has risen by 7.5% over the past 60 days, indicating positive sentiment [10]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a decline on December 31, with significant drops in companies such as Alcoa and Century Aluminum, both falling over 2%, while Kaiser Aluminum and Southern Copper saw declines exceeding 1% [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for precious metal futures for the second time this week, aiming to cool down the recently surging precious metals market [1] - As a result of the increased margin requirements, precious metals experienced a substantial drop, with New York silver futures falling over 9% and dropping below $71 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - The North American aluminum industry is facing opportunities from increased U.S. trade barriers on aluminum imports and challenges from data centers competing for limited power resources. The supply-demand gap for primary aluminum in North America is expected to widen over the next five years, with local U.S. aluminum maintaining a high premium [2]. Supply Overview - The supply of primary aluminum in North America is limited due to power constraints and uncertainties in trade policies. Since 2011, new primary aluminum capacity has stagnated, and cost pressures from aging power and equipment have led to many U.S. projects being idled or shut down. The U.S. local Mt Holly project has announced a restart of idle capacity, while new projects by Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum depend heavily on policy support. Canada currently has no expansion projects with net capacity increases planned. It is expected that North American primary aluminum production will slightly increase from 3.99 million tons in 2024 to 4.16 million tons by 2030, mainly from the restart of idle capacity [5][11][18]. Demand Overview - North American aluminum demand is expected to maintain rapid growth, with the regional supply-demand gap likely to widen further. The transportation sector is anticipated to see a recovery in automotive manufacturing capacity utilization under U.S. tariff protection, while strong orders in aerospace will support aircraft manufacturing demand. Residential construction aluminum demand may stabilize and rebound after new housing starts bottom out. The high investment in the power sector may continue to drive related aluminum demand [5][11][43]. Key Companies - The North American aluminum industry is dominated by three major companies: Alcoa, Century Aluminum, and Rio Tinto. Rio Tinto maintains a relatively stronger profitability due to its low-cost hydroelectric power and integrated bauxite resources. Century Aluminum benefits more from U.S. tariff protections due to its high domestic production ratio. Alcoa, with a higher proportion of alumina revenue, can better withstand cost pressures related to alumina prices, while its higher cash cost per ton of aluminum provides greater profit elasticity [6][45]. Trade and Policy Impact - U.S. aluminum net imports reached a historical high in 2017 but have since declined due to tariff policies. The U.S. aluminum dependency ratio rose from 3% in 2011 to 59% in 2017, then fell to 38% in 2020 due to tariff protections. However, the dependency ratio is expected to rise again to around 50% from 2021 to 2024. The recent increase in tariffs to 25% and 50% will significantly elevate trade barriers [25][26][30]. Price Dynamics - The Midwest premium for aluminum in the U.S. has been expanding due to tariff impacts. The premium has risen from below $0.10 per pound before 2012 to around $0.20 per pound after the introduction of tariffs in 2018, and further to $0.80-$0.90 per pound with the recent tariff increases, effectively covering additional costs imposed by tariffs [35][36]. Future Outlook - The supply of primary aluminum in North America is expected to remain limited due to power resource constraints and uncertainties in trade policies. The demand for aluminum is projected to grow rapidly, particularly in the transportation and packaging sectors. The supply-demand gap is likely to widen from 2025 to 2030, with the Midwest premium expected to remain at a high level sufficient to cover tariff costs [38][43].

Group 1 - Alcoa Corp. has seen a significant increase in its momentum score, rising from 84.25 to 92.28, indicating strong price strength and growing investor optimism amid an aluminum market recovery [1][2] - The company's momentum score reflects robust relative price performance and lower volatility compared to peers, confirmed across short, medium, and long timeframes [2] - Alcoa is a key supplier of lightweight aluminum alloys to major companies like Ford and RTX, which supports its strong market position [2] Group 2 - Recent analyst upgrades have positively impacted Alcoa's stock outlook, with Wells Fargo raising its price target to $58 and Citi to $54 [3][4] - The consensus rating for Alcoa remains "Buy," with an average target price around $49-50, supported by multiple firms reiterating positive views [4] - Aluminum prices have increased nearly 17% in 2025, nearing $2,970 per tonne, driven by tightening global supply, which positions Alcoa for significant EBITDA upside [5] Group 3 - Alcoa's stock has performed well in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 41.54%, 82.21% over the last six months, and 29.10% in the last month [6] - Despite a recent slight decline of 0.88% to $53.77, the stock showed a 1.04% increase in premarket trading [6]

Group 1 - Alcoa Corp. has entered the top 10th percentile of momentum-ranked stocks, with its momentum percentile increasing from 84.25 to 92.28, indicating strong price strength and growing investor optimism amid an aluminum market recovery [1][2] - The company's momentum score reflects robust relative price performance and lower volatility compared to peers, confirmed across short, medium, and long timeframes [2] - Alcoa is a key supplier of lightweight aluminum alloys to major companies like Ford Motor Co. for F-150 truck bodies and RTX Corp.'s Pratt & Whitney jet engine components [2] Group 2 - Recent analyst upgrades have strengthened the bullish outlook for Alcoa, with Wells Fargo raising its price target to $58 from $40 and Citi increasing its target to $54 from $42 [3][4] - The consensus rating for Alcoa remains "Buy," with an average target price around $49-50, supported by positive views from firms like UBS and BMO [4] Group 3 - The aluminum market has seen a recovery, with prices climbing nearly 17% in 2025, reaching approximately $2,970 per tonne, the highest since May 2022, due to tightening global supply [5] - Alcoa's vertical integration is expected to provide significant EBITDA upside during this cyclical recovery in the aluminum market [5] Group 4 - Alcoa's stock has performed strongly in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 41.54%, 82.21% over the last six months, and 29.10% in the last month [6] - Despite a recent closing drop of 0.88% to $53.77, the stock was up 1.04% in premarket trading [6]

Core Viewpoint - Credissential Inc. is currently under a Management Cease Trade Order (MCTO) due to delays in filing its audited annual financial statements for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, with the anticipated completion date set for December 31, 2025 [2][6][7]. Group 1: Management Cease Trade Order (MCTO) - The Alberta Securities Commission granted the MCTO due to delays in the filing of the Company's Annual Filings, which include audited financial statements and management discussions [2]. - The MCTO prohibits trading in the Company's securities by the CEO and CFO until the Annual Filings are completed [3]. - The general investing public can still trade the Company's shares freely despite the MCTO [3]. Group 2: Audit Delays - The audit process has been prolonged due to the complexity of the fiscal year, which involved consolidating two acquisitions and accounting for convertible note financings [4]. - The transition of day-to-day accounting work to Cavalry Advisory Group has resulted in additional reconciliatory work, contributing to the delay [5]. - The Company's auditor, Kenway Mack Slusarchuk Stewart LLP (KMSS), has committed to completing the audit by December 31, 2025, despite previous staffing and scheduling constraints [6]. Group 3: Compliance and Reporting - Credissential intends to comply with alternative information guidelines by issuing biweekly default status reports until the Annual Filings are made [8]. - There have been no material changes to the information disclosed in the default announcement from October 29, 2025, that would be expected to impact investors [8].

Core Viewpoint - Stearman Resources Inc. will change its name to UraniumX Discovery Corp. effective December 31, 2025, reflecting its strategic focus on uranium exploration and the evolving nuclear energy landscape [1][2][3] Company Overview - Stearman Resources Inc. is a Canadian junior mineral exploration company focused on uranium discovery in the Saskatchewan Athabasca Basin, which hosts 10 of the world's top 15 highest-grade uranium deposits [6] - The company's flagship property is the Murphy Lake Uranium Property, where it is earning up to 70% through an option with F4 Uranium [7] - The company also owns the Zoo Bay Uranium Project (15 claims; 19,850 ha) and the NeoCore Uranium Property (6 claims; 13,012 ha), both located in regions with historical uranium occurrences [8][9] Strategic Direction - The name change to UraniumX Discovery Corp. is intended to sharpen the company's focus and enhance its brand, aligning its identity with its long-term growth objectives in the energy sector [2][3] - The company emphasizes its ambition to build a high-quality exploration platform in commodities critical to global energy security [3] Operational Details - There will be no change to the company's share capital or consolidation of shares due to the name change, and existing shareholders will not need to take any action [4][5] - The company's trading symbol is expected to remain unchanged unless otherwise announced [3]

Core Viewpoint - A significant increase in aluminum prices is anticipated due to rising demand from data center construction and electricity costs, which will lead to inflationary pressures on various consumer goods. Industry Overview - Aluminum, once a rare and expensive metal, is now facing a resurgence in demand, particularly driven by technological advancements and infrastructure developments [2][7]. - The production of aluminum is energy-intensive, requiring approximately 14 megawatt-hours of electricity per metric ton, equivalent to powering an average American home for 18 months [3]. Market Dynamics - Analysts predict a shortfall of 16 million metric tons of aluminum within the next three years, representing about 23% of global annual demand, which will significantly impact prices [8]. - The current price of aluminum is around $1.15 per pound, a stark contrast to historical prices where it was once more expensive than gold [4][6]. Company Focus - Alcoa, a leading aluminum producer with a market cap of $12 billion, is highlighted as a key player to monitor in the aluminum market trend [10]. - Despite a substantial increase in Alcoa's stock price this year, it remains below its 2022 high, indicating potential for future growth as demand surges [10]. Investment Insights - The aluminum market is currently considered an "uncrowded trade," suggesting that early investments could yield significant returns as demand from data centers escalates [11].