Financial Performance - Revenue for Q4 2025 increased to $3.4 billion, a 15% sequential increase, and full year revenue reached $12.8 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year [5][8]. - Net income for Q4 2025 was $226 million, or $0.85 per share, compared to $1.2 billion, or $4.42 per share for the full year 2025, up from $60 million in FY24 [3][8]. - Adjusted net income for Q4 2025 was $335 million, or $1.26 per share, with full year adjusted net income at $1.0 billion, or $3.77 per share [3][8]. - Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items for Q4 2025 was $546 million, a sequential increase of $276 million, while full year adjusted EBITDA reached $2.0 billion, a 25% increase year-over-year [3][8]. - For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Alcoa reported sales of $3,449 million, an increase from $2,995 million in the previous quarter [25]. - The net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation for the quarter was $226 million, compared to $232 million in the prior quarter [25]. - For the year ended December 31, 2025, total sales reached $12,831 million, up from $11,895 million in 2024, representing a growth of approximately 7.9% [26]. - Alcoa Corporation reported a net income of $1,132 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, a significant increase from $24 million in 2024 [28]. - Cash provided from operations increased to $1,185 million in 2025, compared to $622 million in 2024, reflecting improved operational efficiency [28]. - Total segment adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $1,959 million, up from $910 million in 2024, indicating strong performance across segments [29]. - For the year ended December 31, 2025, Alcoa reported a net income of $1,170 million, a significant increase from $60 million in 2024 [34]. Production and Operations - Alumina production for Q4 2025 increased 1% sequentially to 2.48 million metric tons, while aluminum production increased 4% to 604,000 metric tons [7]. - The company expects 2026 alumina production to range between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons, and aluminum production to range between 2.4 and 2.6 million metric tons [12][13]. - Aluminum production for 2025 reached 2,319 kmt, while total aluminum shipments were 2,522 kmt, showing a robust output [29]. - Third-party alumina shipments totaled 8,829 kmt in 2025, a decrease from 9,005 kmt in 2024, suggesting a need for market adjustment [29]. Financial Position - Total assets increased to $16,212 million as of December 31, 2025, compared to $14,064 million a year earlier, reflecting a growth of approximately 15.3% [27]. - Current liabilities rose to $3,765 million in 2025 from $3,395 million in 2024, indicating an increase of about 10.9% [27]. - Alcoa's total equity increased to $6,133 million in 2025 from $5,157 million in 2024, representing a growth of about 18.9% [27]. - The total debt as of December 31, 2025, was $2,448 million, down from $2,595 million as of December 31, 2024, while net debt decreased to $851 million from $1,457 million [43]. - Alcoa's adjusted net debt as of December 31, 2025, was $1,462 million, down from $2,057 million as of December 31, 2024 [43]. Cash Flow and Investments - Cash from operations for Q4 2025 was $537 million, with a full year total of $1.2 billion, and free cash flow for the year was $567 million [5][8]. - Capital expenditures for 2025 were $618 million, slightly higher than $580 million in 2024, indicating ongoing investment in growth [28]. - The company experienced a net change in cash and cash equivalents of $458 million in 2025, up from $187 million in 2024, enhancing liquidity [28]. Market and Pricing - The average realized third-party price per metric ton of aluminum increased to $3,376 in 2025, compared to $3,006 in 2024, reflecting favorable market conditions [29]. - The average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina was $415 in 2025, down from $636 in 2024, indicating pricing pressures in the alumina market [29]. Restructuring and Charges - The company incurred a goodwill impairment of $144 million in 2025, while there was no such impairment in 2024 [26]. - Restructuring and other charges increased to $918 million in 2025 from $341 million in 2024, reflecting strategic changes within the company [28]. - The company incurred restructuring and other charges of $14 million in the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to $885 million in the previous quarter [40]. Working Capital Management - DWC working capital for Q4 2025 is $1,303 million, an increase from $1,289 million in Q4 2024 [45]. - Days working capital improved to 35 days in Q4 2025, down from 50 days in Q3 2025 [45]. - Receivables from customers increased to $1,064 million in Q4 2025, up from $1,096 million in Q4 2024 [45]. - Inventories decreased slightly to $2,177 million in Q4 2025 from $1,998 million in Q4 2024 [45]. - Accounts payable, trade rose to $1,938 million in Q4 2025, compared to $1,805 million in Q4 2024 [45]. - Management emphasizes the importance of DWC working capital as a measure of liquidity management efficiency [46].

Market Overview - The U.S. equity markets experienced a significant downturn due to geopolitical threats from President Donald Trump, particularly regarding the acquisition of Greenland, which has led to military support from several EU countries [1] - The U.S. government has threatened to impose substantial tariffs on EU nations, prompting discussions of a potential 'trade bazooka' as a deterrent [1][2] Earnings Season and Investment Strategies - The ongoing unrest in Iran has contributed to a decline in equity markets, which may negatively impact the earnings season that has started modestly with banking stocks [2] - Investors are turning to momentum stocks, such as Kohl's Corporation (KSS), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), and Alcoa Corporation (AA), as a strategy to achieve sustained profits amid market volatility [2] Momentum Investing - Momentum investing is characterized by the strategy of "buying high and selling higher," based on the belief that established trends are likely to continue [3] - This investment approach capitalizes on the human tendency to project current trends into the future before mean reversion occurs [3] Screening Parameters for Momentum Stocks - The screening process identifies the top 50 stocks with the best percentage price change over the last 52 weeks, ensuring selection of stocks that have appreciated steadily [5] - From these, the bottom 10 performers over a one-week period are chosen to identify those experiencing short-term pullbacks [6] - Stocks with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and a Momentum Style Score of B or better are prioritized, indicating a higher probability of success [7] Selected Stocks - Kohl's Corporation (KSS) has seen a price increase of 43.2% over the past year but experienced a 5.7% decline in the past week, holding a Momentum Score of A [10][11] - Albemarle Corporation (ALB) has risen by 67.2% in the last year but faced a 3.7% drop in the past week, also with a Momentum Score of A [11][12] - Alcoa Corporation (AA) has increased by 52% over the past year but saw an 8.5% decline in the past week, maintaining a Momentum Score of A [12]

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 22, with earnings estimates showing an 18.8% increase over the past 60 days, but a projected decline of 8.7% year-over-year in earnings and a 7% decline in revenues [1][7]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is currently at 95 cents per share, with revenues expected to be $3.24 billion [1]. - The earnings surprise history shows that Alcoa has consistently outperformed estimates, with an average surprise of 39.3% over the last four quarters [2]. Earnings Prediction - Alcoa has an Earnings ESP of +0.53%, with the Most Accurate Estimate at 96 cents per share, indicating a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [4][3]. Segment Performance - The Aluminum segment is projected to see total sales of $2.45 billion, reflecting a 29% increase year-over-year, driven by demand in electrical and packaging markets [5]. - Conversely, the Alumina segment is expected to report total sales of $1.32 billion, indicating a 46% decline from the previous year due to lower shipments and trading activity [6]. Strategic Developments - Recent partnerships and acquisitions, including a joint venture for the San Ciprián site and the acquisition of Alumina Limited, are expected to enhance Alcoa's production capacity and market position [8][5]. Market Performance - Alcoa's shares have increased by 54.2% over the past three months, outperforming both the Zacks Metal Products - Distribution industry and the S&P 500 [10]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 12.50X, slightly below the industry average of 12.82X, suggesting potential upside [13]. Investment Thesis - Alcoa's diversified product portfolio and strategic collaborations position it well for growth, particularly in the context of increasing demand for energy-efficient products and the impact of higher tariffs on aluminum imports [15][16].

Economic Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.29%, Nasdaq down 0.66%, and S&P 500 down 0.38% for the week [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.09%, Germany's DAX 30 up 0.14%, and France's CAC 40 down 1.23% [1] - The upcoming week will focus on U.S. GDP data, PCE inflation data, and consumer confidence index, which are expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3] Corporate Earnings - The second week of the U.S. earnings season will feature major tech companies like Netflix and Intel, along with industry leaders such as Johnson & Johnson, Abbott, and Halliburton reporting their earnings [4] Commodity Market - Oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude up 0.54% to $59.44 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions in Iran [5] - Gold futures for January delivery increased by 2.18% to $4588.40 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 11.69% to $88.09 per ounce, amid geopolitical tensions and market volatility [6] European Economic Outlook - The Eurogroup finance ministers' meeting and the EU finance ministers' meeting are set to discuss fiscal stimulus policies, particularly Germany's fiscal measures, which are crucial for the Eurozone's economic growth outlook [7] - The European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting minutes will be released, with expectations that there will be no interest rate changes this year, but discussions on potential future rate hikes may be of interest [7] Upcoming Economic Data - Key macroeconomic data releases next week include the Eurozone and Germany's January ZEW economic sentiment index, as well as manufacturing PMI data for France, Germany, and the Eurozone [7]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Alcoa (AA) will report quarterly earnings of $0.95 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8.7%, with revenues expected to be $3.24 billion, down 7% from the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, there has been a 7.3% upward revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial forecasts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue and Sales Projections - Analysts estimate 'Total sales- Alumina' at $1.32 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 46% [5]. - 'Total sales- Aluminum' is projected to reach $2.45 billion, reflecting a 28.9% increase from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Third-party sales- Bauxite' are expected to be $160.89 million, showing a 25.7% increase from the previous year [5]. Price and Cost Metrics - The estimated 'Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina' is projected at $334.30, down from $636.00 in the same quarter last year [6]. - The 'Average realized third-party price per metric ton of aluminum' is expected to be $3724.71, compared to $3006.00 in the same quarter of the previous year [7]. - Analysts forecast the 'Average cost per metric ton of aluminum shipped' to be $2679.38, slightly up from $2675.00 in the same quarter last year [7]. Production Estimates - 'Third-party alumina shipments' are expected to reach 2239 thousand metric tons, down from 2289 thousand metric tons reported in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Alumina production' is estimated at 2433 thousand metric tons, compared to 2390 thousand metric tons in the same quarter last year [9]. - 'Bauxite production' is projected at 10 million metric tons, up from 9 million metric tons reported in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - Alcoa shares have increased by 32.4% in the past month, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 2% increase, with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) indicating expected outperformance in the near term [11].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Resources (01205) experienced a significant stock price increase following the announcement of a major transaction involving the sale of American Aluminum shares, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company's strategic moves [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CITIC Resources resumed trading with a peak increase of over 21%, ultimately closing up 9.76% at HKD 0.45, with a trading volume of HKD 11.2468 million [1] Group 2: Transaction Details - The company announced the sale of 3.8166 million American Aluminum shares, equivalent to approximately 1.45% of the total issued shares, at an average price of USD 64.75 per share, resulting in a total transaction value of approximately USD 247 million [1] - The cumulative proceeds from the sold American Aluminum Depositary Receipts amounted to approximately USD 74.64 million [1] Group 3: Use of Proceeds - The company plans to utilize the proceeds from the sale for general working capital and as a reserve for potential future investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Resources (01205) announced the sale of 3.8166 million American depositary receipts (ADRs) of Alcoa Corporation, representing approximately 1.45% of Alcoa's total issued shares, for a total transaction amount of approximately $247 million [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The sale will occur through a series of on-market transactions on the New York Stock Exchange on January 14 and 15, 2026, at an average price of $64.75 per share [1] - Prior to the sale, CITIC Resources held approximately 3.03% equity in Alcoa, classified as financial assets through other comprehensive income [1] Group 2: Rationale and Use of Proceeds - The company believes this is an appropriate time to liquidate its stake in Alcoa, considering recent trading prices and to improve liquidity and balance its investment portfolio [1] - After the sale, the cumulative gain related to the sold Alcoa ADRs is approximately $74.64 million [1] - The proceeds from the sale are intended for general working capital and as a reserve for potential future investments [1]

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation (AA) is experiencing strong momentum in its Alumina segment, driven by increased production and favorable pricing [2][9] - The company has made strategic acquisitions and partnerships to enhance its growth and operational flexibility [3][4] - Alcoa has provided a positive outlook for alumina production and shipment volumes for 2025 [5][9] Group 1: Company Performance - The Alumina segment's production increased by 4% sequentially to 2,453 kilometric tons in Q3 2025 [2][9] - Alcoa's acquisition of Alumina Limited in August 2024 positions it as a leading bauxite and alumina producer, expected to create long-term value [3] - A joint venture with IGNIS EQT aims to improve production capacity at the San Ciprian site, with a restart anticipated by mid-2026 [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - For 2025, Alcoa expects alumina production to be between 9.5 million tonnes and 9.7 million tonnes, with shipments projected at 13.1 million tonnes to 13.3 million tonnes [5][9] - Alcoa's shares have surged by 73.9% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 36.2% [8] Group 3: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Alcoa is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.07X, slightly above the industry average of 13.69X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alcoa's 2025 earnings has increased by 3.5% over the past 60 days [13]

Group 1 - Wells Fargo raised the target price for Alcoa Corporation from $58 to $71 [1] - The rating for Alcoa was downgraded from "Outperform" to "Hold" [1]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 achieved a significant annual gain of approximately +17% in 2025, marking another year of double-digit growth [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500's performance reflects strong market conditions and investor confidence [1] - The index's growth indicates a positive trend in the overall economy and corporate earnings [1] - The +17% increase in 2025 continues the momentum from previous years, showcasing resilience in the market [1]