I wrote about KE Holdings (NYSE: BEKE ) with a hold rating, as I wanted to see more signs of growth acceleration and an improved macro environment. After waiting for a few months, reviewing 4Q24 earnings, and looking atI am an individual investor that is now fully focus on managing my own capital that I have saved up over the years. My investing background spreads across a wide spectrum as I believe there are merits to each approach, for instance: Fundamental investing [Bottoms-up etc.], Technical investing ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 93.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, while net profit decreased by 30.8% to 4.078 billion yuan [1] - The company reported a significant increase in Q4 performance, with revenue reaching 31.1 billion yuan, up 54.1% year-on-year, driven by total transaction volume growth and expansion in the rental business [1] - The company initiated a cash dividend plan, proposing a dividend of $0.12 per share, with an expected total payout of approximately $400 million [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company generated a total revenue of 93.5 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 24.6%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The adjusted net profit (non-GAAP) for 2024 was 7.211 billion yuan, down 26.4% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The existing housing business generated a net income of 28.2 billion yuan in 2024, remaining stable year-on-year, contributing a profit of 12.18 billion yuan with a profit margin of 43.2% [2] - The new housing segment reported a net income of 33.7 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 24.8% [3] - The non-housing business, including home decoration and rental services, showed significant growth, with home decoration revenue increasing by 36.1% to 14.8 billion yuan and rental income soaring by 135% to 14.3 billion yuan [4] Future Projections - The company expects revenue growth to continue, with projected revenues of 106.7 billion yuan in 2025 and 126.4 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 14.21% and 18.39% respectively [5] - The forecasted non-GAAP net profit for 2025 is 8.221 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -8.82% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 93.5 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.2%, while net profit decreased by 30.8% to 4.078 billion RMB [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant revenue increase of 54.1% year-on-year, reaching 31.1 billion RMB, driven by total transaction volume growth and expansion in the rental business [1][2]. - The company's "One Body Three Wings" strategy is progressing steadily, with notable growth in both existing and new housing transaction businesses [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a non-GAAP adjusted net profit of 7.211 billion RMB, down 26.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.6%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a gross profit of 7.2 billion RMB, a 39.4% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23%, down 2.5 percentage points from the same period last year [1]. Existing Housing Business - By the end of 2024, the number of active stores increased by 18.3% year-on-year to 49,700, and the number of active agents reached 445,000, up 12.1% year-on-year [2]. - The net income from existing housing for the entire year was 28.2 billion RMB, remaining stable year-on-year, contributing a profit of 12.18 billion RMB with a profit margin of 43.2%, down 4.0 percentage points from the previous year [2]. New Housing Business - The new housing segment generated a net income of 33.7 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, contributing a profit of 8.35 billion RMB with a profit margin of 24.8%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous year [3]. - In the fourth quarter of 2024, new housing net income reached 13.1 billion RMB, a 72.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross transaction volume (GTV) of 355.3 billion RMB, up 49.3% year-on-year [3]. Non-Housing Growth Engines - The home decoration business generated 14.8 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, a 36.1% increase year-on-year, with a profit margin of 30.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - The rental business saw a revenue increase of 135% year-on-year to 14.3 billion RMB, with a profit margin of 5%, turning positive from a negative margin in the previous year [4]. - Emerging businesses and others contributed 2.5 billion RMB in revenue, an 8.8% increase year-on-year, primarily due to increased net income from financial services [4].

Core Insights - The investment thesis on KE Holdings (NYSE: BEKE) was published in June 2024, leading to a stock rally of nearly 50% in under six months, prompting a downgrade to 'hold' in November [1] Company Overview - KE Holdings operates in the real estate sector, focusing on both U.S. and Asia markets, with a multi-family office investment strategy [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has extensive experience, including a background in a multi-billion dollar value fund, covering equities without market capitalization restrictions [1] - The analyst holds a bachelor's and master's degree in accounting and finance and is a CFA Charterholder [1] Investment Approach - The investment style is influenced by notable investors such as Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and Charlie Munger, with a flexible approach encompassing growth, GARP, deep value, turnaround, cyclical, and special situations [1] - The research methodology includes gathering information from public filings, industry periodicals, conferences, company visits, analyst calls, and management meetings [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $25.12, down from a previous $27.88, reflecting a 27x PE for 2025, which is higher than the global comparable company's average of 22.7x [4][28]. Core Insights - The company reported a 54.1% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, reaching 31.13 billion RMB, exceeding consensus expectations by 7% [1]. - The Gross Transaction Value (GTV) increased by 55.5% year-on-year to 1.14 trillion RMB, also surpassing expectations by 9% [1]. - The revenue growth across different segments includes existing homes (47.5%), new homes (72.7%), home decoration (12.8%), and rental services (108.7%) [1]. - Adjusted net profit decreased by 21.6% year-on-year to 1.34 billion RMB, falling short of expectations by 40%, primarily due to one-time expenses [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the company expects revenue to reach 110.04 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 17.74% [6][22]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is 8.12 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 29.6% from previous estimates due to rising personnel costs and a declining take rate [4][22]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in market share in the existing home segment, projecting a 5-7 percentage point increase in market share in first-tier cities [2][13]. Segment Performance - The existing home business outperformed expectations with a 47.5% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, and GTV growth of 59.1%, particularly strong in first-tier cities [2]. - The new home business also exceeded expectations with a 72.7% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, and GTV growth of 49.3% [2]. - The home decoration segment showed a 12.8% year-on-year revenue growth, with a significant increase in contract amounts [3]. Operational Efficiency and Innovations - The company is leveraging AI tools to enhance operational efficiency, including AI-driven customer service and property management systems, which have shown improvements in operational metrics [15][18]. - The home decoration business is expected to achieve quarterly breakeven due to improved supply chain management and the introduction of new product offerings [3][16][17]. Market Context - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, particularly in existing homes, driven by favorable policies and a significant increase in transaction volumes [13]. - The rental business has seen a substantial increase in managed properties, with operational efficiencies improving customer satisfaction and reducing vacancy periods [14].

KE Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BEKE) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call March 18, 2025 8:00 AM ET Company Participants Siting Li - IR Director Stanley Peng - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO Tao Xu - Executive Director & CFO Conference Call Participants Jizhou Dong - Nomura Timothy Zhao - Goldman Sachs Griffin Chan - Citi Eddy Wang - Morgan Stanley Sophie Zhang - CICC [Transcript Provided to Seeking Alpha by the Company] Operator Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by for KE Holdings Inc.’s Fourth Quarter a ...

KE (BEKE) Q4 2024 Earnings Call March 18, 2025 08:00 AM ET Company Participants Siting Li - Investor RelationsYongdong Peng - CEO, Co-Founder, Chairman & Executive DirectorTao Xu - CFO & Executive DirectorJizhou Dong - Head of China Consumer & Property Conference Call Participants Timothy Zhao - Equity Research AnalystGriffin Chan - AnalystEddy Wang - AnalystXiaodan Zhang - Equity Research Analyst Operator Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by for KE Holdings Inc. Fourth Quarter and Fiscal ...

Core Viewpoint - KE Holdings Inc. ("Beike") reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, highlighting a significant increase in net revenues and gross transaction value (GTV), despite a decrease in net income and adjusted net income year-over-year. The company emphasizes its commitment to technology-driven and human-centric services in the evolving real estate market in China [1][4][23]. Financial Highlights for Q4 and FY 2024 - In Q4 2024, net income was RMB577 million (US$79 million), a decrease of 13.9% year-over-year, while adjusted net income was RMB1,344 million (US$184 million), down 21.6% year-over-year [3][17]. - The total GTV for 2024 was RMB3,349.4 billion (US$458.9 billion), an increase of 6.6% year-over-year, with net revenues reaching RMB93.5 billion (US$12.8 billion), a 20.2% increase year-over-year [5][23]. - The number of active stores on the platform grew to nearly 49,700, an 18.3% increase year-over-year, and the number of active agents surpassed 445,000, a 12.1% increase year-over-year [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - GTV of existing home transactions in 2024 was RMB2,246.5 billion (US$307.8 billion), up 10.8% year-over-year, while GTV of new home transactions decreased by 3.3% to RMB970.0 billion (US$132.9 billion) [5][25]. - Net revenues from home renovation and furnishing services increased by 36.1% to RMB14.8 billion (US$2.0 billion) in 2024, and net revenues from home rental services surged by 135.0% to RMB14.3 billion (US$2.0 billion) [23][25]. Cost and Profitability - Total cost of revenues increased by 25.8% to RMB70.5 billion (US$9.7 billion) in 2024, with gross profit rising by 5.6% to RMB22.9 billion (US$3.1 billion) [24][26]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 24.6%, down from 27.9% in 2023, primarily due to increased fixed compensation costs [26]. Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased shares totaling approximately US$716 million in 2024, representing about 3.9% of total issued shares at the end of 2023 [8]. - A final cash dividend of US$0.12 per ordinary share, or US$0.36 per ADS, was declared, amounting to approximately US$0.4 billion [37][38]. Strategic Outlook - The company aims to enhance its technology-driven and human-centric approach, leveraging AI to better understand customer needs and improve service efficiency [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - KE Holdings Inc. has announced the inclusion of its Class A ordinary shares in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect programs, effective March 10, 2025, which is expected to enhance its investor base and trading liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - KE Holdings Inc. is a leading integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services in China, operating under the brand Lianjia, which has over 23 years of experience in the real estate brokerage sector [4]. - The company aims to reinvent housing transactions by building infrastructure and standards that facilitate efficient navigation and completion of services related to home sales, rentals, renovations, and furnishings [4]. Group 2: Market Access and Investor Impact - The inclusion in the stock connect programs allows eligible investors in Mainland China to directly trade the company's Class A ordinary shares, which is anticipated to diversify the investor base and improve trading liquidity [2][3]. - This move enables the company to share its growth and future success with a broader range of investors in Mainland China through the financial market [2].

Core Viewpoint - KE Holdings Inc. will report its unaudited financial results for Q4 and fiscal year 2024 on March 18, 2025, before the U.S. market opens [1] Company Overview - KE Holdings Inc. is a leading integrated online and offline platform for housing transactions and services in China, operating under the brand Lianjia [3] - The company has over 23 years of experience since Lianjia's inception in 2001, which supports its infrastructure and standards for housing transactions [3] Earnings Conference Call - The management will hold an earnings conference call on March 18, 2025, at 8:00 A.M. Eastern Time [2] - Participants can register online to join the call, and a replay will be available until March 25, 2025 [2]