Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media sector [3] Core Insights - The media sector outperformed the market in January, with the Shenwan Media Index rising by 17.94%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 16.29 percentage points, ranking second among 31 sectors [4][22] - The number of game approvals remains high, with 177 domestic games and 5 imported games approved in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [4][31] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the gaming market, projecting a revenue of CNY 350.79 billion in 2025, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [35] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost box office revenues, with seven films scheduled for release, including "Fast Life 3," which has generated significant interest [66][72] Summary by Sections 1. Media Sector Market Review - In January, the media sector ranked second among 31 sectors, with a TTM-PE of 49.9x, placing it in the 98.8th percentile over the past five years [22][27] 2. Gaming - The report notes a sustained high level of game approvals, with 182 game licenses issued in January 2026, marking a 33.8% year-on-year increase [31] - The gaming market is projected to generate CNY 350.79 billion in 2025, with mobile and client games expected to see revenues of CNY 257.1 billion and CNY 78.2 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 7.9% and 15.0% [35][41] 3. Film and Television - January's total box office was CNY 1.964 billion, down 69.2% year-on-year, primarily due to fewer new releases [55] - The Spring Festival is anticipated to drive box office recovery, with a nine-day holiday expected to boost ticket sales [66][67] 4. AI Applications - The report emphasizes the rapid development of AI applications, particularly with the introduction of Seedance 2.0, which enhances video generation capabilities [86][100] - The competition for AI application traffic during the Spring Festival is expected to intensify, with major players launching promotional campaigns [6][86]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with spot gold dropping over 3% and spot silver's intraday decline reaching 11% [1][3] - Major U.S. tech stocks saw widespread declines, with Apple down 5%, Broadcom down over 3%, and Amazon, Meta, and Tesla down over 2%. Nvidia fell over 1%, while Google's A shares saw a slight decrease [3] - Concerns have arisen among investors regarding the impact of newly launched AI tools on various sectors, including software companies, publishers, and financial services, as these tools may replicate business models or erode profit margins [3] Group 2 - As of the latest update, gold prices rebounded, with spot gold reported at $4,979.69 per ounce and spot silver at $76.65 per ounce [4] - The London gold price showed fluctuations, with a recent buy price of $4,912.80 and a sell price of $4,980.36, indicating a 1.25% change [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival Gala has transformed into a technology showcase, integrating social media and AI applications, reflecting the competitive landscape among major tech companies [1][42] - Major platforms like Douyin, Xiaohongshu, Bilibili, Weibo, and Kuaishou are enhancing user interaction, shifting from passive viewing to multi-dimensional engagement [2][20] Group 2: Company Contributions - Douyin secured exclusive rights for the vertical screen viewing experience, enhancing immersion and accessibility for users, including features for the visually and hearing impaired [3][6] - Xiaohongshu is acting as the exclusive interactive community, allowing users to share real-time experiences and participate in various interactive activities during the gala [7][10] - Bilibili continues to be the exclusive platform for bullet comments, improving user experience with new features like interest rooms for discussions [12][16] - Weibo is leveraging its social media presence to create innovative interactions, including a "digital New Year's Eve" experience and various engaging activities [17][19] - Kuaishou focuses on live interactions and community engagement, promoting a festive atmosphere through various content formats [21][24] Group 3: AI Applications and Innovations - Tencent's Yuanbao app launched a 1 billion yuan cash red envelope campaign, aiming to engage users and promote its ecosystem [25] - Alibaba's Qianwen introduced a 3 billion yuan plan to enhance consumer experiences across multiple platforms, integrating various services [27][31] - Baidu's Wenxin assistant is offering 500 million yuan in red envelopes, encouraging user interaction through task completion [32][35] - ByteDance's Doubao assistant is providing tech gifts and interactive features during the gala, enhancing user engagement with AI [36][39] Group 4: Technological Showcases - Multiple robotics companies are collaborating with the gala to showcase advanced technologies, marking a significant moment for China's intelligent manufacturing [41] - The gala serves as a platform for technology demonstration, highlighting innovations in robotics and AI, and reinforcing confidence in China's technological capabilities [41][42]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence (AI) have led to a decline in major stock indices, with the Nasdaq falling by 2% and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also experiencing significant drops [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones index closed down 1.34% at 49,451.98 points, the S&P 500 index fell 1.57% to 6,832.76 points, and the Nasdaq index dropped 2.03% to 22,597.15 points [4]. - Major technology stocks saw declines, with Apple down 5%, erasing its gains for the year, and Nvidia down 1.64% [9]. Group 2: Sector Impact - The introduction of AI tools has negatively impacted various sectors, including software companies, publishers, and financial services, raising concerns about potential business model replication and profit margin erosion [5]. - Financial stocks, such as Morgan Stanley, faced pressure due to fears that AI could disrupt wealth management services [5]. - Trucking and logistics companies, like C.H. Robinson, saw a 14% drop in stock price as AI is expected to optimize freight operations, potentially reducing revenue sources [5]. Group 3: Real Estate and Defensive Sectors - The real estate sector is also affected, with concerns that higher unemployment rates will reduce demand for office space, leading to declines in stocks like CBRE and SL Green Realty [6]. - Investors are shifting towards more defensive sectors, with Walmart and Coca-Cola seeing stock price increases of 3.8% and 0.5%, respectively [7]. - In the S&P 500, the consumer staples and utilities sectors outperformed, both rising over 1%, with the consumer staples sector reaching a historical closing high [8].

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili is expected to capture more advertising budgets from the gaming and AI application sectors in 2026, leading to revenue and profit growth [1][3] Gaming Industry - The number of game licenses in 2025 is projected to increase by nearly 60% year-on-year, excluding casual games, according to the National Press and Publication Administration [2] - In 2026, competition for promotional traffic among leading game developers is expected to intensify, resulting in an overall increase in industry budgets [2] - Bilibili's gaming advertising growth is estimated to exceed 30% year-on-year in 2026 [2][3] AI Applications - Advertising budgets from AI application advertisers are anticipated to significantly increase in 2026, with a high overlap between Bilibili users and the core audience of AI applications [2] - In 2025, AI application advertisers are expected to invest between 100 million to 200 million in Bilibili, with a potential to acquire 3 million activated users based on a budget allocation of 50% for performance ads [2][3] - The total advertising budget for AI applications on Bilibili in 2026 is projected to be between 500 million to 600 million, allowing for the acquisition of approximately 12 million activated users [2][3] Traffic Supply - Bilibili's Daily Active Users (DAU) is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in 2026, with improvements in AI technology enhancing ad matching accuracy [4] - The ad load is projected to increase from 6.7% to 7.1%, and ECPM is expected to grow by 5% [4] - Native and brand advertising revenues are anticipated to be more affected by macroeconomic conditions, with revenue growth expected to be in single digits for 2026 [4] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Bilibili from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 30.2 billion, 32.6 billion, and 36.5 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.5 billion, 3.4 billion, and 4.6 billion [3][4] - The rating for Bilibili is maintained at "outperform the market" [3][4]

Market Overview - The three major indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.34% at 49,451.98 points, the S&P 500 down 1.57% at 6,832.76 points, and the Nasdaq down 2.03% at 22,597.15 points [2] - Concerns over AI tools disrupting various sectors, including software companies, publishers, and financial services, have led to significant market volatility [2] Sector Performance - Financial stocks, including Morgan Stanley, faced pressure due to fears that AI could disrupt wealth management [2] - Trucking and logistics companies, such as C.H. Robinson, saw a 14% drop in stock price amid concerns that AI could optimize freight operations and reduce revenue sources [2] - The real estate sector is also affected, with stocks like CBRE and SL Green Realty declining due to anticipated higher unemployment impacting office space demand [3] - Defensive sectors saw gains, with Walmart and Coca-Cola rising 3.8% and 0.5%, respectively [3] Stock Movements - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 1.64%, Apple down 5.00%, and Microsoft down 0.63% [5] - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. also fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.00% [5] Company News - The European Union has initiated another antitrust investigation into Google, focusing on potential illegal manipulation of search engine advertising pricing [6][7] - OpenAI launched its first AI model based on Cerebras Systems chips, aiming to compete in the AI programming assistant market [8] - AI company Anthropic raised $30 billion in funding, reaching a valuation of $380 billion, with investments from Coatue and GIC among others [9][10] - Google released an updated version of its Gemini 3 model, targeting applications in science and engineering [11] - Intel was fined 273.8 million rupees by India's Competition Commission for violating competition laws [12]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index experienced a decline of 2.97% on February 12 [1] - Tencent Music saw a drop of over 10% [1] - Beike fell nearly 6% [1] - iQIYI decreased by more than 5% [1] - Bilibili dropped close to 5% [1] - Century Internet increased by over 3% [1] - Kingsoft Cloud rose by more than 2% [1]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index (HXC) fell by 3% on February 13, indicating a general decline in popular Chinese concept stocks [1][8] - Among the stocks that rose, Chunghwa Telecom increased by 0.82% and Huazhu Hotels Group rose by 0.23% [2][8] - Notable declines included TSMC down 1.60%, Alibaba down 3.40%, Pinduoduo down 4.16%, and Baidu down 4.64% [2][8] Group 2 - The US stock market closed lower on Thursday, with technology stocks leading the decline; the Nasdaq dropped over 2% [2][8] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 669.42 points, a decrease of 1.34%, closing at 49,451.98 points [2][8] - The S&P 500 index declined for the third consecutive trading day, dropping by 108.71 points or 1.57%, to close at 6,832.76 points [2][8] Group 3 - The list of top gainers included companies like Wu Xin Holdings, which surged by 36.29%, and Jiuzi New Energy, which rose by 31.93% [3][9] - Conversely, significant losers included Tencent Music down 10.57% and GMM down 17.43% [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili's fourth-quarter performance is projected to show revenue between 7.874 billion to 8.958 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% to 15.8%, and net profit expected to range from 120 million to 556 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 33.7% to 517.9% [1][7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenue for Q4 2026 is between 78.74 billion to 89.58 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% to 15.8% [1][7]. - Expected net profit is between 1.20 billion to 5.56 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 33.7% to 517.9% [1][7]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be between 3.52 billion to 8.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -22.3% to 97.9% [1][7]. Business Performance Insights - As of Q3 2025, Bilibili's monthly active users (MAU) reached 376 million, a year-on-year increase of 8%, with a retention rate of 80% for official members [4][11]. - The gaming segment saw significant success with the release of "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World," which became the fastest game to reach 1 billion yuan in revenue [4][11]. - Advertising revenue in Q3 2025 grew by 23% to 2.57 billion yuan, driven by brand, performance, and native advertising [5][13]. Financial Highlights - In Q3 2025, Bilibili achieved revenue of 76.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with an adjusted net profit of 7.86 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 233% [5][13]. - The gross margin increased by 1.8 percentage points to 36.7% [5][13]. - Revenue from mobile games decreased by 17.1%, while value-added services grew by 7.1%, and advertising revenue exceeded expectations with a growth of 22.7% [5][13]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue and adjusted net profit growth over the next three years, supported by a strong core user base and innovative content offerings [5][13].

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili-W (09626.HK) announced that its board of directors will hold a meeting on March 5, 2026, to approve the unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending December 31, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The board meeting is scheduled for March 5, 2026, at 6 PM Hong Kong time [1] - The financial performance announcement will be published on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website [1]