Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast to $6,000, reflecting a 28% increase from its previous estimate, aligning with other major financial institutions like Societe Generale, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's new target for gold matches the forecasts of other Wall Street firms, indicating a broader consensus on the rising value of gold [1] - The increase in the gold price forecast is attributed to a rally in the yellow metal, suggesting strong market demand and potential investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank expects copper prices to peak at $13,000 per ton in Q2, followed by a decline in the second half of the year as production from major mines is likely to recover [2] - The threat of tariffs on refined copper from the U.S. is expected to lead to continued metal inflow into the U.S. during the first half of the year [2] - Aluminum prices are also anticipated to decline from current levels in the second half of the year, with an average forecast of $2,925 per ton for 2026 and a peak of $3,100 per ton in Q2 [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources in the upstream, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [2]

同时，邓智杰指出，去年开始，对于中国的投资氛围就已经在变好；从近期路演情况来看，外资投资者 对于中国股市的关注度进一步增加，其中，"十五五"规划建议提及的战略性行业等将是未来侧重配置的 板块。邓智杰表示，提振消费仍然是今年中国宏观政策的重点发力方向，预计一季度将会降准降息，同 时，医疗、教育等服务消费板块也将成为今年投资看好的行业。 国际现货黄金价格1月26日站上5100美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高，年内涨幅已超18%。 对于全年投资趋势的把握，邓智杰提到，今年全球经济的基本面较为乐观，预计全球经济能实现3%— 3.1%的增长。在此基础上，全球股票预计能实现8%-10%的收益率，其中，新兴市场的表现预计将更好 一些。 邓智杰指出，之所以给出这一收益预期，首先是因为全球主要经济体，如美国、欧洲等，都做出了相对 宽松的货币政策。预计美联储今年将降息两次，每次降息25个基点，年内首次降息预计将在5月份以 后，全年目标利率约为3%—3.25%。 "最近我们在做全球路演，我们问不同的投资人：最关心或赚钱最多的（资产）是哪一个？回答都是黄 金。"德意志银行私人银行部新兴市场首席投资官邓智杰日前接受证券时报记者采访时笑称。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank upgraded Applied Materials' stock rating from "Hold" to "Buy" and raised the target price from $275 to $390, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) environment for 2026 and 2027 [1][2]. Group 1 - Applied Materials' stock rose by 1.1% in after-hours trading following the rating upgrade by Deutsche Bank [1][2]. - The upgrade indicates Deutsche Bank's positive sentiment regarding the future of the semiconductor manufacturing sector, particularly in the context of WFE [1][2].

Core Insights - The current landscape for OpenAI and the broader AI industry is characterized by a shift from initial optimism to a more realistic assessment of capabilities and competition [2][3][15] - OpenAI faces significant challenges as it competes with established players like Google, which have vast resources and user bases [4][11] - The narrative surrounding OpenAI has been strong, but the reality of its business model and competition is becoming clearer, indicating that incumbents may continue to dominate the market [8][13][14] Company Analysis - OpenAI has 800 million weekly users, but its subscription revenue has stagnated since mid-2022, indicating a need for new revenue models [5] - The company is struggling to secure funding for its data center operations, which is a critical challenge compared to competitors who have substantial financial backing [4][5] - The rise of competitors like Google's Gemini is impacting OpenAI's market position and valuation, suggesting a shift in the competitive dynamics of the AI sector [12][13] Industry Trends - The AI market is witnessing increased competition, with major tech companies leveraging their existing business models to integrate AI capabilities [9][14] - The initial belief that OpenAI would disrupt incumbents is being reassessed, as established companies are adapting and thriving in the AI landscape [13][15] - The narrative of achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) first is being challenged, with the realization that multiple players can catch up and compete effectively [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are evaluating Deutsche Bank (DB) and HDFC Bank (HDB) to determine which stock offers better value opportunities at present [1] Valuation Metrics - Deutsche Bank has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a more favorable earnings estimate revision activity compared to HDFC Bank, which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - DB's forward P/E ratio is 9.45, significantly lower than HDB's forward P/E of 20.10, suggesting that DB may be undervalued [5] - The PEG ratio for DB is 0.36, while HDB's PEG ratio is 1.29, indicating that DB's expected earnings growth is more favorable relative to its price [5] - DB's P/B ratio stands at 0.82, compared to HDB's P/B of 2.49, further supporting the notion that DB is more attractively valued [6] Value Grades - Based on various valuation metrics, DB holds a Value grade of B, while HDB has a Value grade of D, indicating that DB is perceived as a better value investment [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese central bank is likely to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.75% in the upcoming decision, as inflation is approaching the 2% target, providing support for policy stability [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Japanese central bank is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.75% due to inflation nearing the 2% target [1] - The decision is influenced by the need for policy stability amid current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Currency Concerns - The central bank is cautious about the recent depreciation of the yen, which has been driven by domestic political risks, including the Prime Minister's announcement of early elections [1] - There is a market expectation for potential "verbal intervention" or actual market intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - The wording of the policy statement, comments on the exchange rate, and hints about future interest rate paths will be critical in influencing the short-term movement of the yen [1] - The central bank may adopt a slightly firmer stance to prevent further pressure on the yen [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing culture of self-censorship among executives in the financial industry due to the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration, highlighting concerns about potential repercussions for speaking out against the government [1][2][3]. Group 1: Executive Concerns - Executives from major investment firms are expressing concerns about the impact of rapidly changing U.S. policies on global markets, particularly in light of Trump's controversial actions [1]. - There is a notable reluctance among executives to publicly address sensitive topics related to U.S. policies, with some advising teams to avoid controversial comments regarding U.S.-Europe relations [2][3]. - The fear of backlash from the Trump administration is leading to a culture of caution, where analysts worry that critical reports could hinder their firms' ability to operate in the U.S. [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Research and Reporting - Deutsche Bank's recent report predicting a decline in European willingness to hold U.S. assets due to Trump's actions has led to attempts by the bank's CEO to distance the firm from the report [1][4]. - Analysts are increasingly modifying their reports to avoid potential criticism from the Trump administration, with some even redacting parts of their analyses to mitigate risks [4]. - The emphasis on producing independent and impactful research is being overshadowed by the need to avoid unnecessary provocations that could embarrass the government [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Danish and Swedish pension funds are withdrawing from U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over U.S. policies, budget deficits, and national debt unpredictability [5]. - The actions of these funds reflect a broader trend of caution among international investors regarding U.S. assets amid the current political climate [5].

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that Asian currencies may remain "relatively stable or slightly stronger than the dollar" by 2026, supported by good foreign exchange reserves and optimistic macroeconomic conditions in the region [1] - Analysts note that there are no extreme imbalances in trade and fiscal policies, and Asian policymakers are unlikely to encourage significant appreciation of their currencies against the dollar due to ongoing geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Gold Demand and Market Trends - T. Rowe Price analysts highlight that central bank demand for gold remains strong and largely insensitive to price changes, providing "durable support" for gold as a strategic diversification tool [2] - The macro environment for gold remains favorable, with ongoing policy uncertainty and pressure on the dollar, benefiting gold as an asset outside the fiat currency system [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury and Market Dynamics - The "Sell America" trade is identified as a key driver behind recent market movements, as investors seek to reduce exposure to perceived risks associated with U.S. policies [2] - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields reached a peak of 4.313%, the highest since August of the previous year, with a closing yield of 4.287% [2] - Factors contributing to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields include the decline in Japanese bonds, tariff threats from Trump, and the momentum from breaking the critical 4.20% technical level [2] Group 4: Japanese Bond Market - Following significant sell-offs, Japan's 30-year bond yields fell by about 20 basis points to 3.71%, although they still increased by 22 basis points for the week [3] - Japanese policymakers are urged to respond quickly as market volatility shows no signs of easing, and recent price rebounds may not be sustainable [3] Group 5: UK Inflation and Economic Projections - The UK inflation rate for December 2025 rose to 3.4%, exceeding the expected 3.3%, while the Bank of England is set to make a decision on interest rates next month [3] - Despite sluggish economic growth, the UK maintains the highest inflation rate among G7 countries, although a significant slowdown in price increases is anticipated in the coming months [3] - Financial markets expect the Bank of England to potentially lower interest rates once or twice in 2026, each by 25 basis points [3]

已抛售其持有的绝大部分美国国债 1月21日晚间，据瑞典《工业日报》报道，瑞典养老基金Alecta因美国政治与金融环境的不稳定出售其 持有的大部分美国国债， 以应对美国政治中不断上升的风险与不确定性。 此次减持规模估计为700亿至 800亿瑞典克朗。类似地，丹麦的Akademiker Pension也计划在本月抛售价值1亿美元的美国国债。 减持细节显示，出售规模估计约77亿至88亿美元。 德银CEO紧急致电美财长 为"抛售美债"报告"灭火" 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，德意志银行首席执行官克里斯蒂安·泽温曾致电他，否认该行一名分 析师发布的一份报告——该报告称欧洲投资者可能会抛售美国资产。 贝森特在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛上说："所谓'欧洲人会卖出美国资产'的说法，来自德意志银行的一 名分析师。德意志银行的CEO打电话来说，德意志银行并不认可那份分析报告。" 该分析师——外汇研究全球主管乔治·萨拉韦洛斯——周日发布报告称，在美国总统特朗普就格陵兰问 题发出威胁后，欧洲可能会降低持有美国资产的意愿。他认为，这种"美元再平衡"可能会限制欧元所受 的负面影响。 【导读】继续卖出美国资产 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好 ...