Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which has influenced market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant rebound in gold prices after a period of volatility [3][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On February 14, 2026, gold prices in China saw significant increases, with Chow Sang Sang's price rising to 1551 RMB per gram, up 27 RMB from the previous day, and Lao Miao Gold increasing to 1565 RMB per gram, up 36 RMB [5]. - The international futures market reacted sharply, with April gold futures closing at $5063.80 per ounce, a 2.33% increase, and March silver futures at $77.27 per ounce, up 2.10% [4]. - The fluctuations in gold prices are closely tied to the movements in the international market, with domestic pricing reflecting changes in global gold prices almost immediately [4][5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The primary factors influencing gold prices include geopolitical risks, market expectations regarding central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve, and speculative trading activities [7][8]. - Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, providing a solid support base for prices [7]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts, particularly following the soft CPI data, has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors [7][8]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Major investment banks, including JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank, have increased their holdings in gold ETFs, indicating a bullish outlook on gold despite recent volatility [8][9]. - Research reports from various banks have raised their price targets for gold by the end of 2026, with Deutsche Bank setting a target of $6000 per ounce and JPMorgan raising it to $6150 per ounce, citing ongoing demand from central banks and geopolitical risks [9]. - UBS has provided a scenario analysis suggesting that if geopolitical risks escalate, gold prices could reach $7200 per ounce, while maintaining current monetary policies could see prices drop to around $4600 [9]. Group 4: Changing Valuation Logic - The traditional correlation between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields is weakening, with a growing emphasis on gold's monetary attributes as a store of value amid changing geopolitical dynamics [10][11]. - The total value of global gold reserves is now comparable to that of U.S. Treasury debt, indicating a significant shift in gold's role within the global financial system [11].

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank plans to hire up to 50 relationship managers in its emerging markets private banking unit in 2024, aiming to increase its wealth footprint in the Gulf region and North Asia [1] - The private bank intends to grow its emerging markets front office headcount by 50% over the next three years, with a significant portion of the 250 bankers to be hired focusing on this franchise [1] - Global financial wealth reached an all-time high of $305 trillion in 2024, indicating a growing market for private banking services [1] Group 2 - There is a rising trend among wealthy clients for diversification in asset allocation, with increased interest in wealth centers like Switzerland, Luxembourg, and the UK, as geopolitical risks influence investment decisions [1] - Lombard lending, where clients borrow against their investment portfolios, is gaining traction, with a global market size of approximately $4.3 trillion as of 2024 [1] - The private bank is focusing on Lombard lending as a means to expand its assets under management, reflecting a growing appetite for leveraging among clients [1]

【德银全球CIO：AI不是泡沫，中国资产吸引力上升】德银全球首席投资官(CIO)克里斯蒂安.诺尔廷(Christian Nolting)表示，围绕AI的投资是一场正在展开的"结构性变革"，尚不足以称之为泡沫；相关投资不应仅聚焦芯片， 而应放眼更完整的价值链；在这一过程中，数据中心、电力与基础设施等领域将同样受益。 【德银全球CIO：AI不是泡沫，中国资产吸引力上升】德银全球首席投资官(CIO)克里斯蒂安.诺尔廷(Christian Nolting)表示，围绕AI的投资是一场正在展开的"结构性变革"，尚不足以称之为泡沫；相关投资不应仅聚焦芯片， 而应放眼更完整的价值链；在这一过程中，数据中心、电力与基础设施等领域将同样受益。 谈及中国及新兴市场，诺尔廷认为，中国资产的吸引力有所增强，来自欧洲和美国的投资兴趣正在回升。 谈及中国及新兴市场，诺尔廷认为，中国资产的吸引力有所增强，来自欧洲和美国的投资兴趣正在回升。 在他看来，在美元走势、通胀风险与地缘政治不确定性并存的环境下，坚持投资纪律、进行多元化配置，将是 2026年应对市场波动的关键。 ...

Regulatory Situation - Deutsche Bank is currently under legal scrutiny, with a raid conducted by the Frankfurt public prosecutor's office on January 28, 2026, investigating transactions related to sanctioned clients from 2013 to 2018, focusing on the alleged late filing of suspicious activity reports [2] - The European Central Bank is also reviewing claims that the bank may have underestimated balance sheet risks and provided misleading impressions regarding capital rule applications, which could impact the bank's reputation and operations [2] Performance and Financials - Despite regulatory pressures, Deutsche Bank reported a record net profit of €1.3 billion in Q4 2025 and announced a new €1 billion share buyback plan [3] - The management plans to propose a €1 annual dividend per share at the 2026 shareholder meeting, representing an approximately 50% increase from 2024 [3] - The financial guidance for 2026 anticipates revenues to rise to around €33 billion, with investment banking revenues expected to be slightly above the previous year's levels [3] Strategic Developments - The corporate banking segment has shown a strong rebound in cash management and trade financing [4] - Improvements in retail operations and the strategic details disclosed by the new CFO Raja Akram, who officially took office in October 2025, are noteworthy [4] - CEO Christian Sewing raised key return targets in November 2025, committing to distribute 60% of profits to shareholders, with the market closely monitoring the progress of these strategic objectives [4]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 如何抓住黄金波段机会？聪明钱的选择，黄金+股票一键搞定>> 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：何俊熹 德意志银行全球外汇策略师萨拉维洛斯（George Saravelos）上个月曾引发财政部长贝森特的愤怒，现 在他进一步表示，美元作为避险资产的地位纯属神话。 今年1月，萨拉维洛斯曾暗示在特朗普对欧洲征收惩罚性关税后，欧洲人可能会抛售持有的美国国债， 这一言论随即激怒了贝森特。据贝森特称，德意志银行首席执行官已表示不同意萨拉维洛斯的观点。然 而，萨拉维洛斯现在正直接挑战美元的强势地位。 根据萨拉维洛斯的观察，美元指数与标普500指数的关系显示，美元在风险规避时期并未如预期般反 弹。他指出，过去一年美元与标普指数已经脱钩，并深入探讨了这一趋势背后的解释及其影响。 萨拉维洛斯的核心论点是，美国股市已变得更加危险——这主要归因于人工智能领域的过度集中以及对 行业"自我蚕食"的担忧。 ...

Core Insights - Deutsche Bank achieved a record net profit of €1.3 billion in Q4 2025, representing a significant year-on-year increase, with revenues reaching €7.73 billion, up 7.1% [1] - The strong performance was primarily driven by robust results in the fixed income and foreign exchange trading sectors [1] Recent Events - On January 27, 2026, Frankfurt prosecutors conducted a raid at Deutsche Bank's headquarters as part of an investigation into transactions related to money laundering from 2013 to 2018, which has put short-term pressure on the bank's stock price [2] Performance and Operations - Management plans to propose a dividend of €1 per share for the fiscal year 2025 at the annual shareholders' meeting in May 2026, marking an approximate 50% increase from 2024 [3] - The bank also announced a €1 billion share buyback program, bringing total shareholder returns to 50% of 2025 profits [3] Future Development - Deutsche Bank anticipates revenues to rise to approximately €33 billion in 2026, primarily driven by growth in loan and fee income, with expected increases in advisory and capital markets within the investment banking sector [4] - Non-interest expenses are projected to be slightly above €21 billion, while the bank's CET1 capital ratio stood at 14.2% in Q4, indicating a solid capital position [4] - CFO James von Moltke noted a "very strong" start to 2026 and plans for additional dividends in the second half of the year [4]

2026.02. 12 本文字数：2093，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈玺宇 封图 | 德银全球CIO诺尔廷 进入2026年，全球市场不确定性依旧显著，针对人工智能（AI）投资风险的争论日益升温，资产配 置正面临新的考验。 德意志银行在最新发布的"2026年年度投资展望"中提出，"纪律胜过戏剧性波动"（discipline beats drama）将成为贯穿全年市场的重要原则。 在接受第一财经独家专访时，德银全球首席投资官（CIO）克里斯蒂安·诺尔廷（Christian Nolting）表示，围绕AI的投资是一场正在展开的"结构性变革"，尚不足以称之为泡沫；相关投资不 应仅聚焦芯片，而应放眼更完整的价值链；在这一过程中，数据中心、电力与基础设施等领域将同样 受益。 谈及中国及新兴市场，诺尔廷认为，中国资产的吸引力有所增强，来自欧洲和美国的投资兴趣正在回 升。 在他看来，在美元走势、通胀风险与地缘政治不确定性并存的环境下，坚持投资纪律、进行多 元化配置，将是2026年应对市场波动的关键。 第一财经：人工智能仍是市场关注焦点。你如何看待AI在2026年对投资决策的影响？ 诺尔廷： 人工智能在2025 ...

Group 1: Investment Environment in 2026 - The core principle for the investment landscape in 2026 is "discipline beats drama," emphasizing the need for disciplined investment strategies amidst market volatility [1][3] - Investors are encouraged to view market corrections as opportunities for positioning rather than engaging in cyclical trading behaviors [3] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Investment - AI remains a focal point for investment decisions in 2026, with a broader perspective on the entire AI value chain rather than just chips [4][5] - The ongoing structural transformation in the AI sector is viewed as a significant opportunity for growth, efficiency, and productivity, rather than a bubble [5] Group 3: Emerging Markets and China - Emerging markets, particularly Asia, South America, and Eastern Europe, are expected to perform positively in 2026, supported by a weaker dollar and a global economic environment that has not entered recession [6] - China's attractiveness as an investment destination is increasing, with rising interest from European and American investors, particularly outside the real estate sector [6] Group 4: Currency and Dollar Outlook - While there is discussion about reevaluating exposure to dollar assets, the U.S. market, especially AI-related companies, remains attractive, with equity returns exceeding 20% [7] - The dollar is expected to maintain its importance in investment strategies, despite potential diversification in currency exposure [7] Group 5: Inflation Risks - Inflation risk is identified as a significant concern for 2026, with potential implications for central banks' ability to lower interest rates if inflation exceeds expectations [8] - Factors such as geopolitical events, tariffs, and wage increases due to low unemployment rates are highlighted as drivers of inflation [8] Group 6: Geopolitical Risks and Market Volatility - Geopolitical events are acknowledged as potential sources of market volatility, with a focus on their impact on energy prices and inflation [9] Group 7: European Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth outlook for Europe in 2026 is relatively optimistic, driven by fiscal spending, particularly in Germany, while acknowledging the need for further structural reforms [10]

进入2026年，全球市场不确定性依旧显著，针对人工智能（AI）投资风险的争论日益升温，资产配置 正面临新的考验。 德意志银行在最新发布的"2026年年度投资展望"中提出，"纪律胜过戏剧性波动"（discipline beats drama）将成为贯穿全年市场的重要原则。 在接受第一财经独家专访时，德银全球首席投资官（CIO）克里斯蒂安·诺尔廷（Christian Nolting）表 示，围绕AI的投资是一场正在展开的"结构性变革"，尚不足以称之为泡沫；相关投资不应仅聚焦芯 片，而应放眼更完整的价值链；在这一过程中，数据中心、电力与基础设施等领域将同样受益。 诺尔廷：人工智能在2025年是最重要的主题之一，我认为在2026年仍将如此。当然，地缘政治风险同样 需要关注。对投资者而言，关键并不只是芯片，而是要放眼整个AI价值链。建设数据中心需要大量冷 却系统和电力供应，这意味着公用事业等相关领域同样会受益。这类资产通常更稳定，也具备分红特 征，有助于平衡投资组合。 第一财经：目前关于AI是否存在泡沫的争论不断，你怎么看？ 诺尔廷：尽管当前AI领域的投资规模很大，市场也在讨论资金是否能够被有效配置，但我们仍然认 为， ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes that European companies are losing global competitiveness and require significant reforms to enhance their position in the market [1] - A coalition of over 100 companies and investors, including Siemens and Deutsche Bank, has called for the EU to prioritize economic growth and reduce excessive regulation to strengthen capital markets and expedite free trade agreements [1] - The CEOs of Siemens and Deutsche Bank highlighted the need for Europe to master key technologies that support industry, energy supply, and security, indicating a failure to leverage its advantages [1] Group 2 - To boost the economy and enhance competitiveness, the German government, along with Siemens and Deutsche Bank, has initiated a large-scale investment initiative called "Made in Germany," committing to invest several hundred billion euros by 2028 for new factories, research and development, and infrastructure [1]