Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( HOG ) is an iconic motorcycle manufacturer facing tariff impact, secular decline, an aging customer-base and declining market shares. The company's stock is heavily shorted and, based on our analysis, extremely undervalued, even for a company inWe write about all kinds of investments, as long as their price is reasonable. Long-only equity and sometimes debt. We focus on value names with strong down-side protection, as we are making heavily concentrated investments without much care f ...

Webcast Conference Call Scheduled for 8 a.m. CST MILWAUKEE, Jan. 26, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) will release its fourth quarter and year-end 2025 financial results before market hours Tuesday, February 10, 2026. The public is invited to attend an audio webcast from 8-9 a.m. CST. Harley-Davidson, Inc. senior management will discuss financial results, developments in the business, and the Company's outlook. A slide presentation supporting the discussion will be available prior to ...

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) is included among the 14 Best Mid-Cap Dividend Stocks to Buy Now. Morgan Stanley Sees Muted Demand Trends Weighing on Harley-Davidson (HOG) On January 16, Morgan Stanley cut its price target on Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) to $18 from $21, while keeping an Underweight rating on the stock. In its 2026 outlook note, the firm said gaming, lodging, and leisure trends were “muted” in 2025, with the few pockets of stronger momentum mostly tied to companies serving older and ...

Core Insights - Harley-Davidson (HOG) is focusing on high-potential markets in North America, Europe, and select Asia-Pacific regions while facing challenges from rising tariffs, cost inflation, and poor operating leverage [1] Financial Strategies - Long-term strategic partnerships with KKR and PIMCO are expected to enhance Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) and improve capital structure, with projected discretionary cash of $1.2-$1.25 billion to be unlocked by Q1 2026 [2] - The significant cash inflow could be utilized for debt reduction (targeting $450 million), accelerating buybacks ($200 million ASR under a $1 billion repurchase program through 2026), or funding targeted product and dealer initiatives [3] Operational Efficiency - The revamped operating model and streamlined organizational structure have improved efficiency across all functions, with a focus on high-potential regions after exiting unprofitable markets [4] - The company aims to strengthen market position while driving productivity and reducing supply-chain costs, emphasizing sportier bikes and modern marketing techniques [5] - Cost regulation is a key component of the multi-year productivity cost program, aiming for $400 million in improvements by 2025, with $257 million in unlevered productivity savings realized from 2022 to 2024 [6] Debt Management - As of September 30, 2025, Harley-Davidson's long-term debt was $3.1 billion, down from $4.5 billion at the end of 2024, with a long-term debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 0.46, providing greater financial flexibility [7] Market Challenges - Tariffs are compressing gross margins, with HDMC's gross margin declining to 26.4% in Q3 from 30.1% the previous year, costing $27 million in the quarter and projected to reach $55-$75 million for full-year 2025 [8] - Unfavorable operating leverage and cost inflation pressures are expected to continue affecting profitability, leading to withheld 2025 guidance due to tariff and trade-policy uncertainty [9] Inventory Issues - Global dealer motorcycle inventories are down 13% year-over-year, with concerns primarily in Touring and CVO inventories, prompting targeted promotions to move stock [11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The consumer discretionary sector has several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1] - An asset is considered oversold when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 30, which helps traders gauge short-term performance [1] Group 2: Company Highlights - Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) reported better-than-expected third-quarter results with a 2.7% growth in comparable sales, despite a stock decline of around 12% over the past month and an RSI of 24.4 [6][3] - Harley-Davidson announced new executive appointments aimed at enhancing engagement with riders and dealers, with a stock decline of approximately 14% over the past month and an RSI of 27.9 [6][4] - Advance Auto Parts Inc (NYSE:AAP) saw a significant stock drop of about 25% in the last month, with an RSI of 29.2, following a price target reduction by an analyst [6][5]

Core Insights - The consumer discretionary sector has several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1] Company Summaries - **Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY)**: Reported better-than-expected Q3 financial results with a 2.7% growth in comparable sales. The stock has fallen approximately 12% in the past month, with a 52-week low of $54.99. Current RSI value is 24.4, and shares closed at $67.84, down 2.5% [6][3] - **Harley-Davidson**: Recently appointed new executives to enhance operations and engagement with customers. The stock has decreased around 14% over the past month, reaching a 52-week low of $20.45. Current RSI value is 27.9, and shares closed at $20.82, down 0.9% [6][4] - **Advance Auto Parts Inc (NYSE:AAP)**: Analyst Greg Melich maintained an In-Line rating but lowered the price target from $58 to $56. The stock has dropped about 25% in the last month, with a 52-week low of $28.89. Current RSI value is 29.2, and shares closed at $39.87, down 3.4% [6][5]

Core Thesis - Harley-Davidson, Inc. is viewed as a deep-value investment opportunity, trading below tangible book value, indicating that the market assigns little value to its strong brand presence in the motorcycle industry [2][3]. Company Overview - Founded in 1903, Harley-Davidson is a key player in American motorcycling culture, known for its strong brand loyalty [3]. - The company's stock is currently trading at $21.25, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 5.09 and 6.76 respectively [1]. Valuation Insights - The current market valuation suggests that Harley-Davidson's intangible assets, including its brand and financing arm, are being valued at nearly zero, reflecting investor pessimism rather than the company's intrinsic worth [3]. - A sum-of-the-parts analysis indicates that the intrinsic value of Harley-Davidson could approach the low-$30s per share, suggesting a potential upside of over 50% [7]. Challenges Faced - The company's valuation discount is attributed to both self-inflicted challenges, such as past management decisions and a shift in focus towards younger demographics, and external macroeconomic pressures like high interest rates and weak consumer sentiment [4][5]. - Recent leadership changes are aimed at refocusing on core operations and profitability, which may help address these challenges [5]. Strategic Moves - Harley-Davidson's decision to sell a 10% stake in Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) has raised investor concerns, but this move is seen as a way to de-risk the business while maintaining operational control [6]. - The transaction, which transfers $4 billion of loans off the balance sheet, is expected to bring in institutional investors like KKR and PIMCO, validating the value of HDFS [6].

Imagine at Harley-Davidson it must have been uh unique to have a woman as CFO, right. >> I've had the good fortune in all of the stops I've had along the way where my bosses have prioritized that diversity of of of thought. >> Noticed also that a lot of [music] people who work here seem to also play the games.You know, they live in this culture. And I must that must have been the same at Harley, right. >> At Harley, you're right.I wasn't a rider, but I'm from [music] Milwaukee. Uh, I learned how to ride. An ...

Group 1 - Harley-Davidson (HOG) shares have underperformed over the past year, losing approximately one-third of their value [1] - Despite the overall market reaching record highs, Harley-Davidson shares are currently near a 52-week low, which was observed during the peak of tariff concerns [1]

Core Insights - The motorcycle maker is enhancing the responsibilities of its finance chief and reintroducing a company veteran as chief operating officer, solidifying the leadership team under new CEO Artie Starrs [1] Group 1 - The company is expanding the role of its finance chief, indicating a strategic shift in financial management [1] - A veteran from within the company is being brought back to take on the role of chief operating officer, suggesting a focus on experienced leadership [1] - These changes are part of a broader effort to strengthen the top ranks of the company under the new leadership of CEO Artie Starrs [1]