UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended: December 31, 2025 WASHINGTON, D. C. 20549 ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to FORM 10-K Commission file number 1-9183 Harley-Davidson, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Wisconsin 39-1382325 (State of organization) (I.R.S. Employer Ide ...

Group 1 - Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) has received multiple price target adjustments from various analysts, indicating a consensus that the company's fiscal Q4 and fiscal year 2026 guidance fell below expectations [1][3][4] - DA Davidson lowered its price target to $25 from $30 while maintaining a Buy rating, highlighting management's commitment to a turnaround and inventory cleanup [1] - BMO Capital revised its price target to $24 from $30, citing pressures from "reset" actions affecting the company's initial 2026 guidance [3] - Baird adjusted its price target to $22 from $28 while maintaining a Neutral rating following the fiscal Q4 results [4] Group 2 - Harley-Davidson operates Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) and Harley-Davidson Financial Services, manufacturing luxury motorcycles, parts, apparel, and accessories globally [5]

Core Viewpoint - Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) is facing challenges with its fourth-quarter results and fiscal 2026 guidance, prompting analysts to lower their price targets while maintaining positive ratings, indicating a potential turnaround strategy in place [2][3]. Financial Performance - Harley-Davidson reported fourth-quarter revenue of $496 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $479.83 million [4]. - The company is taking steps to stabilize operations and align wholesale shipments with retail demand, reflecting a commitment to long-term earnings and cash-flow potential [4]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - DA Davidson lowered its price target on Harley-Davidson to $25 from $30 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing fourth-quarter results and fiscal 2026 guidance below expectations [2]. - BMO Capital also reduced its price target to $24 from $30, keeping an Outperform rating, and noted that initial 2026 guidance was disappointing due to various strategic adjustments [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Management is focused on inventory cleanup and rebuilding dealer confidence as part of a turnaround strategy for 2026 [2][4]. - The company is undergoing "reset" actions, including channel right-sizing and strengthening the dealer network, which are seen as reasonable steps to improve performance [3].

Core Insights - Harley-Davidson reported a loss of $2.44 per share in Q4 2025, a significant increase from a loss of 93 cents per share in the same quarter last year, with consolidated revenues of $496 million, down 28% year-over-year [1][9] Financial Performance - The company experienced a decline in gross margins, with HDMC's gross margin falling to 24.2% in 2025 from 28% in 2024, impacted by tariffs costing $67 million in 2025 [3] - Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) operating income is projected to drop to $45-$60 million in 2026, down from $490 million in 2025, due to lower volumes and reduced dealer inventory [6][10] Market Conditions - Global retail sales fell by 12% in 2025, with North America down 13% and EMEA down 11%, attributed to weak consumer confidence, high interest rates, and inflation concerns [4] - The company faces challenges in the EV market, with a lack of consumer incentives and a less supportive regulatory environment expected to hinder the growth of its LiveWire segment, projecting an operating loss of $70-$80 million in 2026 [5][10] Inventory and Sales Dynamics - Dealer inventory imbalances are evident, particularly with Touring models, which are above desired levels despite a 17% year-over-year decline in global dealer motorcycle inventories [7] - The company is implementing targeted promotions to manage inventory but faces risks of pricing pressure and uneven shipments due to macroeconomic uncertainties [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy focused on identifying mispriced securities through understanding the financial drivers of companies, often revealed by DCF model valuation [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach is centered on small cap companies across US, Canadian, and European markets [1]. - The methodology allows for flexibility beyond traditional investment styles, incorporating value, dividend, and growth investing to assess a stock's risk-to-reward profile [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy focused on identifying mispriced securities through understanding the financial drivers of companies, often revealed by DCF model valuation [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach is centered on small cap companies across US, Canadian, and European markets [1]. - The methodology allows for flexibility beyond traditional investment styles, incorporating value, dividend, and growth investing to assess a stock's risk-to-reward profile [1]. Group 2: Market Focus - The focus is primarily on small cap companies, indicating a niche investment strategy that may offer unique opportunities [1].

Core Insights - Harley-Davidson reported weaker quarterly earnings, indicating potential financial struggles for the company [1] - The motorcycle maker received a warning that its debt ratings may be downgraded to junk status by spring, which could impact its borrowing costs and investor confidence [1] Financial Performance - The company’s quarterly earnings were below expectations, suggesting a decline in profitability [1] Debt Ratings - A warning has been issued regarding the potential downgrade of Harley-Davidson's debt ratings to junk status, which typically signifies higher risk for investors [1]

Core Insights - Harley-Davidson's total revenue for fiscal year 2025 was $4.473 billion, a year-over-year decline of 13.76%, with net profit at $339 million, down 25.61% [1][2] - The third quarter of 2025 showed strong performance, with revenue increasing by 16.51% to $1.341 billion and net profit soaring by 217.01% to $377 million [1][3] Financial Performance - For the full fiscal year 2025, the diluted earnings per share were $2.78, with an operating profit margin of 8.64% and a gross margin of 30.24% [2] - The return on equity (ROE) was reported at 10.71%, with operating cash flow at $569 million and free cash flow at $415 million [2] Recent Events - The third quarter results were highlighted by a 16.51% increase in revenue, driven by a 23% rise in motorcycle sales [3] - The significant profit increase was partly due to a one-time credit loss provision benefit from a transaction involving Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) [3] Business Developments - Despite a 6% decline in global motorcycle retail sales, the Softail series saw a 9% growth in the U.S., increasing market share in the large cruiser segment from 61% to 68% [4] - The electric motorcycle segment, under the LiveWire brand, reported a sales increase to 184 units, an 86% year-over-year growth, with revenue up 16% and operating losses narrowing by 30% [4] Executive Changes - Artie Starrs took over as CEO on October 1, 2025, emphasizing the importance of dealer network health and inventory management during the third-quarter earnings call [5] Company Status - In early November 2025, the company launched the 2026 model lineup, featuring new paint options and the Solo kit, aiming to penetrate more niche markets with price adjustments [6] - The company maintained cost control, reducing the capital expenditure to sales ratio to 3.44% for the year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Harley-Davidson (HOG) shares rose by 2.8% in after-hours trading following the release of better-than-expected Q4 earnings, despite a weak outlook for 2026 [1][2] Financial Performance - The company reported Q4 earnings that exceeded market expectations [1][2] Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 is described as weak, indicating potential challenges ahead for the company [1][2]

Group 1 - The article does not provide any relevant content regarding the company or industry [1]