Feb 4 (Reuters) - Eli Lilly forecast 2026 profit above Wall Street estimates on ​Wednesday, betting on surging demand for ‌its obesity drugs as the world's most valuable ‌drugmaker prepares to launch its oral weight-loss pill later this year. Shares of the company rose nearly 7% in premarket trading. Lilly last ⁠year became the ‌first pharmaceutical company to hit a $1 trillion valuation, driven by the ‍popularity of its blockbuster weight-loss drug, Zepbound, and a rapidly expanding obesity market tha ...

Eli Lilly forecast 2026 profit above Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, as it expects strong demand for its blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, to offset pricing pressures in the U.S., its largest market. ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 礼来第四季度营收为192.9亿美元，同比增长43%。预计全年营收为800亿至830亿美元，市场预期为 777.1亿美元。 ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company reported significant financial growth in Q4 2025, with a 43% increase in revenue to $19.3 billion compared to Q4 2024, driven by strong volume growth from key products like Mounjaro and Zepbound [3][4][8] - The company provided optimistic financial guidance for 2026, projecting revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $33.50 to $35.00 [25][26] Financial Results - Q4 2025 revenue reached $19.3 billion, a 43% increase from $13.5 billion in Q4 2024, with a 46% increase in volume offset by a 5% decrease in realized prices [4][8] - Net income for Q4 2025 was $6.6 billion, up 50% from $4.4 billion in Q4 2024, with reported EPS increasing by 51% to $7.39 [11][15] - Non-GAAP net income for Q4 2025 was $6.8 billion, a 41% increase from $4.8 billion in Q4 2024, with non-GAAP EPS rising by 42% to $7.54 [14][37] Revenue Breakdown - U.S. revenue increased by 43% to $12.9 billion, driven by a 50% increase in volume, primarily from Zepbound and Mounjaro [5][8] - International revenue also rose by 43% to $6.4 billion, with a 38% increase in volume, largely attributed to Mounjaro [6][8] Key Product Performance - Mounjaro revenue surged by 110% to $7.4 billion in Q4 2025, with U.S. revenue at $4.1 billion, reflecting strong demand [18] - Zepbound revenue increased by 123% to $4.3 billion in Q4 2025, driven by heightened demand [19] - Verzenio revenue saw a modest increase of 3% to $1.6 billion, with U.S. revenue declining by 4% [20] Regulatory and Pipeline Developments - Regulatory advancements included FDA approvals for Kwikpen for tirzepatide and expanded indications for Jaypirca, along with submissions for orforglipron for obesity [8][21] - Positive Phase 3 trial results were reported for Taltz and Zepbound in treating psoriatic arthritis and obesity [23] Operational Expenses - Research and development expenses rose by 26% to $3.8 billion, representing 20% of revenue, reflecting ongoing investments in the product pipeline [9] - Marketing, selling, and administrative expenses increased by 29% to $3.1 billion, driven by promotional efforts for product launches [10] Gross Margin and Tax Rate - Gross margin for Q4 2025 was $15.9 billion, a 43% increase, with a gross margin percentage of 82.5% [9][12] - The effective tax rate for Q4 2025 was 19.7%, up from 12.5% in Q4 2024, influenced by a less favorable jurisdictional mix of earnings [10][13]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed mixed performance following a negative close on Tuesday, with major benchmark indices fluctuating [1] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.27%, while the two-year bond was at 3.58%, indicating market expectations for interest rates [2] Index Performance - Dow Jones increased by 0.12%, S&P 500 by 0.061%, while Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.093% and Russell 2000 rose by 0.38% [3] Stocks in Focus - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw a premarket decline of 7.63% despite better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, maintaining a strong price trend overall [6] - Enphase Energy (ENPH) surged by 23.39% after beating earnings estimates, with a strong price trend across all time frames [7] - Eli Lilly (LLY) was down by 0.046% ahead of its earnings report, with analysts expecting earnings of $6.93 per share on revenue of $17.93 billion [7] Sector Performance - Information technology, communication services, and health care sectors led losses in the S&P 500, while materials and energy shares finished higher [8] Analyst Insights - Jeremy Siegel expressed a positive outlook on the economy and stock market, citing reduced political uncertainties and the nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair as beneficial [9] - Siegel noted that fourth-quarter GDP estimates have moderated but growth remains solid, and he is not concerned about recent inflation related to tariffs [10] - He predicts a shift in the AI narrative, emphasizing that 2023 will favor firms that utilize AI for productivity over those that merely sell AI tools [11] Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are anticipating Fed Governor Lisa Cook's speech and the release of January's ADP Employment data [12] Commodities and Global Markets - Crude oil futures rose by 0.49% to approximately $63.53 per barrel, while Gold Spot increased by 2.12% to around $5,052.03 per ounce [13] - Asian markets closed higher, with notable gains in indices across India, Hong Kong, China, Australia, Japan, and South Korea [14]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly is positioned to potentially overtake Novo Nordisk in the weight-loss drug market following disappointing results from Novo, with investor confidence in Lilly's GLP-1 treatments growing significantly [1][2][3] Group 1: Eli Lilly's Performance - Eli Lilly's GLP-1 treatments for diabetes and weight loss saw accelerated sales growth in 2025, leading to a 39% increase in share prices [2] - Analysts forecasted Eli Lilly to achieve approximately $17.9 billion in revenue for the most recent quarter, reflecting a 32% increase year-over-year [2] - The company is expected to introduce a new weight-loss pill, orforglipron, to compete with Novo's offerings [6] Group 2: Novo Nordisk's Challenges - Novo Nordisk reported a decline in sales and operating profit expectations for the year, projecting a fall between 5% and 13% due to increased competition and lower US prices [3] - The company's shares dropped over 14.6% following the announcement of its disappointing results [3] - Novo's exclusivity for its drugs in key markets like Brazil, Canada, and China has ended, further impacting its sales outlook [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The weight-loss drug market is facing downward pressure from the proliferation of cheaper generic drugs and increased competition, leading to revised revenue forecasts [4] - Jefferies reduced its weight-loss market forecast by 20%, estimating a peak of $80 billion by 2030, down from over $100 billion [4] - Goldman Sachs also lowered its market estimate from $130 billion to $105 billion [4] Group 4: Future Prospects - Eli Lilly's pipeline includes seven phase 3 trials for its next-generation obesity drug, retatrutide, expected to conclude in 2026, targeting weight management, Type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular issues [6] - Analysts from UBS have identified Lilly as "the best growth story for 2026-2030" based on its trajectory and pipeline developments [6]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, the Nasdaq down 1.43%, and the S&P 500 down 0.83% [1] - Popular technology stocks experienced declines, with Broadcom falling over 3%, and Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta each dropping over 2% [1] Sector Performance - The rare earth, non-ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors saw significant gains, with gold resources rising over 20%, Southern Copper up over 11%, Americas Silver up over 8%, and Pan American Silver up over 5% [1] - Conversely, application software, cryptocurrency, and weight loss drug stocks faced notable declines, with Novo Nordisk down over 14%, Coinbase and Circle each down over 4%, and Eli Lilly and Pfizer each down over 3% [1] Notable Company Movements - Walmart's stock increased by 2.94%, marking its market capitalization surpassing the $1 trillion milestone for the first time [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.94%, with significant declines in popular Chinese stocks such as Daqo New Energy down 5.6%, Bilibili down 4%, and Kingsoft Cloud down 3.5% [1] - Alibaba dropped 2.9%, while NIO rose 0.8%, Pony.ai increased by 2%, Huazhu up 2.2%, New Oriental up 2.3%, Li Auto up 2.7%, Canadian Solar up 4.1%, and Xpeng up 4.3% [1]

Group 1 - The Chinese central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported a significant increase in new A-share accounts, with 4.9158 million new accounts opened in January 2026, a month-on-month increase of approximately 89% and a year-on-year increase of about 213% [2] - The Paris prosecutor's office conducted a search of the office of the social media platform X, owned by Elon Musk, as part of an investigation into cybercrime [3] Group 2 - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, S&P 500 down 0.84%, and Nasdaq down 1.43%, nearly erasing gains made since the beginning of the year [3][4] - Large technology stocks faced pressure, with Nvidia down 2.84%, Microsoft down 2.87%, and Amazon down 1.79% [4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.94%, with Alibaba down 2.81% and Tencent Holdings ADR down 3.33% [4] Group 3 - Commodity markets saw a rebound in gold and silver prices after two days of significant declines, with spot gold rising 5.2% to $4,906.82 per ounce [5] - Crude oil prices slightly rebounded, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by 1.72% to $63.21 per barrel [5] - Several companies announced significant developments, including a change in controlling shareholder for Jiatang and a fundraising plan for Xuguang Electronics [5]

Market Overview - Stocks declined on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 falling over 1% and the Nasdaq dropping approximately 2% due to a selloff in technology stocks [1] - Financial stocks, including Blue Owl Capital, KKR, Apollo Global Management, and BlackRock, also experienced declines as the market reacted to potential software losers from AI [1] Company-Specific Updates - Nvidia's stock fell more than 3% on Tuesday, maintaining a flat performance over the past six months; CEO Jensen Huang denied rumors of a fraying relationship with OpenAI during an interview with Jim Cramer [1] - Eli Lilly's shares dropped nearly 4% ahead of its earnings report, influenced by Novo Nordisk's disappointing guidance for 2026, which included a projected sales decline of 5% to 13% year over year [1] - Novo Nordisk's stock fell over 15% after announcing it expects lower sales in the U.S. due to price pressures and increasing competition, suggesting a potential loss of market share to Eli Lilly [1] Housing Market Insights - Housing-related stocks saw a rally following a report indicating efforts to make entry-level home buying more affordable, involving companies like Lennar and Taylor Morrison Home [1] - Despite the broader market decline, Home Depot's shares rose nearly 1%, indicating potential benefits from a revived housing market [1] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Key earnings reports expected after Tuesday's close include Advanced Micro Devices, Super Micro, Chipotle, Enphase Energy, Amgen, Amcor, Prudential Financial, Mondelez, and Corteva [1] - Notable reports before Wednesday's opening bell include GE Healthcare, Uber, Boston Scientific, Johnson Controls, AbbVie, Bunge, and Fortive [1]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has a market capitalization of $980.5 billion and is recognized for its diverse product lineup, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector [1] Stock Performance - LLY shares have increased by 28.7% over the past 52 weeks but have seen a decline of 2.8% year-to-date in 2026, underperforming compared to the S&P 500 Index, which returned 15.5% over the past year and increased by 1.9% in 2026 [2] - Compared to the Healthcare Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV), which rose by 6% over the past year, LLY has outperformed but has lagged in 2026 [3] Growth Drivers - LLY became the first healthcare company to reach a $1 trillion market cap on November 21, primarily driven by its success in the weight-loss drug market, competing with Novo Nordisk [5] - The popularity of LLY's drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, along with promising results from a new oral weight-loss medication, have contributed to its growth [5] Earnings Expectations - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, analysts project an 82.8% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS to $23.74, although LLY has a mixed earnings surprise history, surpassing estimates in three of the last four quarters [6] Analyst Ratings - LLY holds a consensus "Strong Buy" rating, with 22 out of 28 analysts recommending "Strong Buy," two "Moderate Buy," and four "Holds," indicating a positive shift in Wall Street's sentiment towards the stock [7] - Guggenheim analyst Seamus Fernandez maintained a "Buy" rating while slightly reducing the price target from $1163 to $1161, with a mean price target suggesting an 11.5% premium and a Street-high target indicating a 43.7% upside potential [8]