Company Overview - Morgan Stanley (MS) is currently positioned as an intriguing investment choice due to solid earnings estimate revisions and a favorable industry ranking [1][3]. - The firm has seen a rise in earnings estimates, with current quarter estimates increasing from $1.55 to $1.65 per share, and current year estimates rising from $7.33 to $7.42 per share [4]. Industry Analysis - The Financial - Investment Bank sector has a Zacks Industry Rank of 11 out of over 250 industries, indicating strong positioning compared to other segments [2]. - The positive trends in the industry suggest that a rising tide may benefit all companies within this sector, including Morgan Stanley [2]. Investment Potential - Morgan Stanley's recent earnings estimate revisions indicate a more bullish outlook from analysts for both short and long-term prospects [3]. - The company's Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) further emphasizes its solid position within the industry, making it a compelling option for investors [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Morgan Stanley (MS US) [1][2][3][4] Core Views - Morgan Stanley's Q4 2024 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with significant outperformance across key business segments [2][3][4] - The company's deposit and loan growth also surpassed market expectations, indicating strong financial performance [2][3][4] Business Performance - Revenue growth was +25.8% YoY, significantly higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of +16.4% [3][4] - Net interest income increased by +34.5% YoY, outperforming the expected +5.2% [3][4] - Non-interest income grew by +24.3% YoY, above the consensus forecast of +21.8% [3][4] - Efficiency ratio improved by -15.0 percentage points to 69.0%, better than the expected 74.7% [3][4] - Net profit attributable to common shareholders surged by +157.7% YoY, far exceeding the forecast of +97.0% [3][4] Segment Performance - Institutional Securities revenue grew by +47.1% YoY, outperforming the expected +26.4% [3][4] - Wealth Management revenue increased by +12.5% YoY, above the consensus forecast of +10.2% [3][4] - Investment Management revenue rose by +12.2% YoY, surpassing the expected +6.3% [3][4] Balance Sheet Metrics - Total loans grew by +8.8% YoY, higher than the expected +3.6% [3][4] - Total deposits increased by +6.9% YoY, above the consensus forecast of +3.8% [3][4] - Credit loss provisions were $115 million, higher than the expected $74 million [3][4] Capital and Profitability Metrics - CET1 ratio increased by +0.7 percentage points to 15.9%, above the expected 15.1% [3][4] - ROTCE (Return on Tangible Common Equity) improved by +11.8 percentage points to 20.2%, significantly higher than the expected 15.2% [3][4] - ROE (Return on Equity) increased by +9.0 percentage points to 15.20%, above the consensus forecast of 11.44% [3][4] Summary - Morgan Stanley's Q4 2024 performance was strong across all key metrics, with revenue, profit, and balance sheet growth exceeding market expectations [2][3][4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The firm reported total revenues of $61.8 billion for 2024, with fourth-quarter revenues reaching a record $16.2 billion [39] - Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) for the full year was 18.8%, while fourth-quarter ROTCE was 20.2% [39] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the full year was $7.95, with fourth-quarter EPS at $2.22 [39] - The efficiency ratio for the full year improved to 71.1%, indicating better revenue growth management [40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Institutional Securities generated full-year revenues of $28.1 billion, with fourth-quarter revenues of $7.3 billion [43] - Wealth Management achieved record revenues of $28.4 billion for the year, with a pre-tax profit of $7.7 billion and a margin of 27.2% [57] - Investment Management reported annual revenues of $5.9 billion, with quarterly revenues of $1.6 billion [68] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Each region in Institutional Securities grew revenues by approximately 20% in 2024, reflecting a strong global performance [22] - Wealth Management added net new assets of over $250 billion in each of the past two years, aiming for over $10 trillion in total client assets [25] - The firm ended 2024 with total client assets at $7.9 trillion [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on an integrated firm strategy supported by four pillars: strategy, culture, financial strength, and growth [11] - Investments will continue in talent, technology, and infrastructure to support growth across all business segments [18] - The firm aims to enhance its wealth management and investment management platforms through strategic partnerships and technology investments [67][70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the end of financial repression and geopolitical uncertainty as key themes impacting the business environment [6] - The firm is well-positioned for growth, with a strong capital position and healthy pipelines across all business segments [74] - There is optimism regarding M&A activity, with the strongest pipeline in years, driven by improving CEO and boardroom confidence [48][132] Other Important Information - The firm accreted over $5.5 billion of Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital in 2024, ending the year with a CET1 ratio of 15.9% [73] - The quarterly tax rate was 24.1%, with expectations for a similar rate in 2025 [73] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on trading environment and durable gains - Management emphasized the importance of a well-organized approach to client relationships and the integrated investment bank model to achieve durable gains in trading [81][84] Question: Status of AML and BSA compliance in wealth management - Management confirmed ongoing investments in processes and systems to ensure robust compliance infrastructure, which supports growth objectives [95][96] Question: Integration status of the bank and growth opportunities - Management acknowledged that integration is ongoing, with significant potential for deposit growth from wealth management clients [99][100] Question: Insights on loan growth trends - Management noted a decline in paydowns and an increase in the use of lines, indicating a positive shift in loan growth dynamics [116][119] Question: Expectations for cash trends and market investments - Management expressed optimism about the transition of client cash from sweep accounts into market-oriented products, reflecting a more transactional approach [123][128] Question: Backlog status in investment banking - Management reported the highest M&A pipeline in seven years, indicating strong demand for corporate finance activities [132][138]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reported a revenue of $16.22 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, marking a 25.8% increase year-over-year and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.88 billion by 9.05% [1] - The company's EPS was $2.22, significantly higher than the $1.13 reported in the same quarter last year, and surpassed the consensus estimate of $1.65 by 34.55% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Book value per common share was $58.98, exceeding the five-analyst average estimate of $58.18 [4] - Return on average common equity stood at 15.2%, compared to the estimated 11.1% by four analysts [4] - Total client assets in Wealth Management reached $6,194 billion, surpassing the estimated $5,764.14 billion [4] - Total assets under management were $1,666 billion, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of $1,541.39 billion [4] Revenue Breakdown - Investment banking revenues were reported at $1.79 billion, matching the average estimate and reflecting a 26.6% year-over-year increase [4] - Commissions and fees generated $1.39 billion, exceeding the estimated $1.22 billion and representing a 25.2% increase from the previous year [4] - Net revenues from Investment Management were $1.64 billion, surpassing the estimated $1.51 billion and showing a 12.2% year-over-year growth [4] - Institutional Securities net revenues reached $7.27 billion, exceeding the estimated $6.18 billion and reflecting a 47.1% increase year-over-year [4] - Net interest revenue was $2.55 billion, above the estimated $2.10 billion, marking a 34.5% increase from the prior year [4] - Other revenues were reported at $438 million, below the estimated $501.05 million, indicating a decline [4] - Asset management revenues totaled $6.06 billion, exceeding the estimated $5.77 billion and representing a 20.2% year-over-year increase [4] - Total non-interest revenues were $13.67 billion, surpassing the average estimate of $12.70 billion and reflecting a 24.3% increase year-over-year [4] Stock Performance - Morgan Stanley's shares returned +7.9% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a -1.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for outperformance in the near term [3]

Financial Performance - Morgan Stanley reported quarterly earnings of $2.22 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65 per share, and up from $1.13 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 34.55% [1] - The company posted revenues of $16.22 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.05%, compared to year-ago revenues of $12.9 billion [2] - Over the last four quarters, Morgan Stanley has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates and revenue estimates [2] Stock Performance - Morgan Stanley shares have increased approximately 3.8% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.2% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.18 on revenues of $16.26 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $8.04 on revenues of $63.52 billion [7] Industry Outlook - The Financial - Investment Bank industry, to which Morgan Stanley belongs, is currently ranked in the top 6% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that the stock is expected to outperform the market in the near future [5][6]

Financial Performance - Net revenues for Q4 2024 reached $16,223 million, a 5% increase from Q3 2024 and a 26% increase from Q4 2023[3] - Net income applicable to Morgan Stanley for Q4 2024 was $3,714 million, a 16% increase from Q3 2024 and 145% increase from Q4 2023[3] - Earnings per diluted share for Q4 2024 were $2.22, an 18% increase from Q3 2024 and 161% increase from Q4 2023[6] - Consolidated net revenues for Q4 2024 were $16,223 million, a 5% increase from $15,383 million in Q3 2024 and a 26% increase from $12,896 million in Q4 2023[8] - Net income applicable to Morgan Stanley for Q4 2024 was $1,891 million, a 32% increase from $1,436 million in Q3 2024 and a 93% increase from $304 million in Q4 2023[12] - The pre-tax margin for Wealth Management was 27% in Q4 2024, consistent with Q4 2023[14] - Total non-interest expenses for Q4 2024 were $11,202 million, compared to $11,083 million in Q3 2024 and $10,797 million in Q4 2023, with total non-interest expenses year-to-date at $43,901 million[36] Revenue Breakdown - Institutional Securities net revenues were $7,267 million, up 7% from Q3 2024 and 47% from Q4 2023[3] - Wealth Management net revenues increased to $7,478 million, a 3% rise from Q3 2024 and 13% from Q4 2023[3] - Investment Management net revenues rose to $1,643 million, reflecting a 13% increase from Q3 2024 and 12% from Q4 2023[3] - Investment banking revenues for Q4 2024 reached $1,641 million, a 12% increase from $1,463 million in Q3 2024 and a 25% increase from $1,318 million in Q4 2023[12] - Wealth Management net revenues for Q4 2024 were $7,478 million, a 3% increase from Q3 2024 and a 13% increase from Q4 2023[14] - Adjusted net revenues (non-GAAP) for Q4 2024 were $7,504 million, compared to $6,403 million in Q4 2023, reflecting a 17.3% increase[42] Asset and Capital Management - The firm’s total assets as of December 31, 2024, were reported at $1,000 billion, reflecting a strategic focus on asset growth and management[3] - Total assets decreased by 3% from $1,258,027 million in Q3 2024 to $1,215,071 million in Q4 2024, but increased by 2% compared to $1,193,693 million in Q4 2023[8] - The Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio improved to 15.9% in Q4 2024 from 15.1% in Q3 2024 and 15.2% in Q4 2023[10] - The Tier 1 capital ratio was 17.9% in Q4 2024, up from 17.1% in Q3 2024 and consistent with 17.1% in Q4 2023[10] - The allowance for credit losses (ACL) for loans and lending commitments at the end of Q4 2024 was $1,722 million, down from $1,723 million at the end of Q3 2024[46] Loans and Deposits - Loans increased by 3% from $239,760 million in Q3 2024 to $246,814 million in Q4 2024, and by 9% compared to $226,828 million in Q4 2023[8] - Deposits rose by 3% from $363,722 million in Q3 2024 to $376,007 million in Q4 2024, and by 7% compared to $351,804 million in Q4 2023[8] - Consolidated Loans totaled $422.8 billion, a 3% increase from $409.6 billion in the previous quarter and a 12% increase from $376.3 billion year-over-year[23] - Wealth Management Loans increased to $159.5 billion, up 3% from $155.3 billion in the previous quarter and up 9% from $146.5 billion year-over-year[23] Client Assets and Flows - Total client assets in Wealth Management reached $6,194 billion, reflecting a 4% increase from Q3 2024 and a 21% increase from Q4 2023[17] - Net new assets for Q4 2024 were $56.5 billion, down 12% from Q3 2024 but up 19% from Q4 2023[17] - Total Net Flows reached $71.1 billion, a significant increase from $16.6 billion in the previous quarter, while year-over-year flows improved from $7.5 billion[21] - Long-Term Net Flows were $4.3 billion, down 41% from $7.3 billion in the previous quarter, and down from $18.0 billion year-over-year[21] Expenses and Compensation - Compensation expenses for Q4 2024 were $6,197 million, a decrease from $6,457 million in Q3 2024 and an increase from $5,597 million in Q4 2023[4] - Compensation and benefits for Q4 2024 amounted to $6,289 million, a decrease from $6,733 million in Q3 2024 and an increase from $5,951 million in Q4 2023[36] - Total non-interest expenses for Wealth Management were $5,388 million in Q4 2024, a 4% increase from Q3 2024 and a 3% increase from Q4 2023[14] Performance Metrics - Return on average common equity improved to 15.2% in Q4 2024, compared to 13.1% in Q3 2024 and 6.2% in Q4 2023[6] - The return on average common equity for Q4 2024 was 16%, up from 12% in Q3 2024 and 2% in Q4 2023[12] - Return on Average Common Equity for Wealth Management was 20% for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to 17% for the previous year[14] Risk and Regulatory Compliance - The firm continues to evaluate its Required Capital framework in light of evolving regulatory requirements to ensure adequate capital is maintained[30] - The average liquidity resources for the three months ended December 31, 2024, were actively managed considering various components including unsecured debt maturity profile and regulatory requirements[30] - The firm’s risk-based capital ratios are computed under standardized and advanced approaches for calculating credit risk and market risk risk-weighted assets[30]

Core Insights - Analysts expect Morgan Stanley (MS) to report quarterly earnings of $1.62 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 43.4% [1] - Revenue projections stand at $14.8 billion, indicating a 14.7% increase from the previous year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 1.1% over the past 30 days, showing analysts' reappraisal of initial projections [1] Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Revenues- Investment banking' is $1.72 billion, representing a year-over-year change of +21.5% [4] - 'Net revenues- Investment Management' are projected to reach $1.52 billion, indicating a +3.8% change from the year-ago quarter [4] - 'Revenues- Asset management' are estimated at $5.77 billion, reflecting a +14.6% year-over-year change [4] Non-Interest Revenues and Book Value - Analysts forecast 'Total non-interest revenues' to be $12.58 billion, suggesting a +14.4% year-over-year change [5] - The 'Book value per common share' is expected to be $58.14, up from $55.50 in the same quarter last year [5] Return on Equity and Client Assets - The consensus for 'Return on average common equity' is 10.7%, compared to 6.2% reported in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Wealth Management - Total client assets' is projected to reach $5,779.08 billion, up from $5,129 billion in the previous year [6] Assets Under Management - 'Total assets under management' is expected to be $1,545.39 billion, compared to $1,459 billion in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Assets under management - Liquidity and Overlay Services' is estimated at $490.87 billion, slightly up from $485 billion year-over-year [7] - 'Assets under management - Fixed income' is projected to reach $181.04 billion, compared to $171 billion in the previous year [8] Market Performance - Over the past month, Morgan Stanley shares have recorded a return of -3.1%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -2.2% change [9]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's trading business is expected to perform well in Q4 2024, driven by increased client activity and market volatility, which will likely support its quarterly results to be announced on January 16 [1][2]. Trading Revenues - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for equity trading revenues is $2.38 billion, reflecting an 8.2% increase year-over-year, while fixed-income trading revenues are estimated at $1.78 billion, indicating a 24% growth [3]. - The company's own estimates for Q4 equity trading revenues and fixed-income trading revenues are $2.78 billion and $1.93 billion, respectively [3]. Investment Banking Income - Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) showed significant improvement in Q4 2024, with robust deal value and volume, supported by strong financial performance and interest rate cuts [4]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for advisory fees is $593.2 million, suggesting a 15.5% decline from last year, while the company's estimate is $613.1 million [5]. - The IPO market is showing cautious optimism, with increased activity in follow-up equity issuances and decent bond issuance volume, leading to expected growth in underwriting fees [6]. - The consensus estimate for fixed-income underwriting fees is $515.2 million (31.8% increase), and for equity underwriting fees, it is $360.6 million (60.3% increase), with total underwriting fees estimated at $875.8 million (42.2% rise) [7]. - Total Investment Banking income is expected to rise significantly, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $1.62 billion (22.8% increase) [8]. Net Interest Income - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are anticipated to support Morgan Stanley's Net Interest Income (NII) growth, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII at $2.09 billion (10.1% increase) [9][10]. Expenses - Overall costs are expected to be elevated due to investments in franchises, with total non-interest expenses estimated at $11.04 billion (2.2% year-over-year increase) [11]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has been revised to $1.60, indicating a 41.6% rise from the previous year, with sales estimated at $14.71 billion (14.1% increase) [14]. Earnings Prediction - The likelihood of Morgan Stanley beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is high, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [12][13].

The latest trading session saw Morgan Stanley (MS) ending at $126.88, denoting a -1.37% adjustment from its last day's close. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.11%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.42%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 1.89%.Coming into today, shares of the investment bank had gained 0.05% in the past month. In that same time, the Finance sector lost 3.95%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.7%.Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Morgan ...

The Finance group has plenty of great stocks, but investors should always be looking for companies that are outperforming their peers. Has Morgan Stanley (MS) been one of those stocks this year? Let's take a closer look at the stock's year-to-date performance to find out.Morgan Stanley is one of 871 companies in the Finance group. The Finance group currently sits at #1 within the Zacks Sector Rank. The Zacks Sector Rank considers 16 different groups, measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks ...