高市早苗内阁于2月25日向国会提交两位日本央行政策委员会新候选人，分别为中央大学名誉教授浅田 统一郎与青山学院大学教授佐藤绫野，拟接替任期将于3月底届满的野口旭及6月底卸任的中川顺子。 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利MUFG团队与高盛认为，两位被提名人均持有鲜明的通胀鸽派立场，与高市 早苗的经济政策理念高度契合。此次人事安排可能改变日本央行内部的政策倾向构成，进而影响加息节 奏。 短期来看，两位鸽派委员的加入显著降低了日本央行在今年4月或6月提前加息的概率。候选人之一的佐 藤绫野更是曾明确主张"弱日元对日本经济有利"，这一立场可能在短期内为日元汇率带来下行压力。机 构普遍认为短期内加息条件尚不成熟，摩根士丹利维持6月加息的基准预测并将7月视为风险情境，而高 盛则坚守7月加息的判断，夏季已成为市场共识的加息窗口，这意味着加息节点预计将推迟至2026年中 后期。 就此次人事变动的落地前景而言，摩根士丹利指出，两位候选人的名字此前并未在市场上广泛流传，具 有一定的"突袭"意味，显示出现任政府严密的信息管理意图。高盛补充称，尽管执政联盟在参议院缺乏 多数席位，但只要有任何反对党投赞成票，提名就不太可能被否决。若提名顺利获批 ...

当全球投资者将目光聚焦于人形机器人的"大脑"——大模型、芯片与算法——摩根士丹利却将视线投向了一个更为基础、却同样关键的零部件： 轴承（Bearings）。 2月26日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利明星分析师Adam Jonas等在最新研报中称，轴承是所有机器人形态的必需品，无法被替代、难以被内部 化生产，且随着机器人复杂度提升，单机轴承用量与价值将同步放大。 摩根士丹利预测，全球机器人领域的轴承市场规模将从2025年的约8.27亿美元，增长至2050年的约2550亿美元，增幅约300倍。这一数字仅计算原 始设备需求，尚未纳入替换与售后市场。 轴承是大宗商品，但这次不一样 报告坦承：轴承本质上是大宗商品（Commodity）。但摩根士丹利随即给出了反驳： "但随着AI向物理机器人世界扩散，我们将需要数以百亿计的轴承。在多个国家和地区建立和维护机器人经济，需要可靠、冗余且安全 的轴承供应来源。" 换言之，即便是大宗商品属性的轴承，在机器人经济的宏观叙事下，也将面临供应安全、产能冗余与本土化制造等战略性需求，这将为优质轴承 制造商带来超越传统周期的溢价空间。 轴承101：机器人世界里无处不在的"润滑剂" 研报指出 ...

Core Insights - The investment landscape in the energy storage sector is shifting significantly, driven by the dual forces of energy transition and the explosion of AI computing power. This has led to a fundamental change in the investment logic of the energy storage industry [1][4][16]. Group 1: Institutional Holdings - Major foreign institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have recently entered the top shareholder lists of several companies, indicating a strong collective interest in the energy storage sector [2][8]. - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have made significant new investments in companies like Kosen Technology and Highlan, reflecting a trend of foreign capital focusing on key players in the energy storage supply chain [2][8]. Group 2: Policy Changes - A milestone policy was introduced in January 2026, integrating new energy storage into the capacity pricing system, allowing independent storage stations to earn fixed capacity fees, thus transforming the business model of energy storage [4][16]. - This policy change positions energy storage as an independent profit-generating entity rather than merely a cost component associated with renewable energy [4][16]. Group 3: Market Demand - The demand for energy storage is being propelled by the increasing electricity consumption of global data centers, particularly those driven by AI, which is expected to reach 800-1100 TWh by 2026, a significant increase from 2022 [5][6]. - The energy storage industry is projected to see a 62% year-on-year growth in new installations globally, with China expected to reach 250 GWh in new installations, marking a 67% growth [6][16]. Group 4: Company Profiles - Kosen Technology is recognized for its leading solid-state battery packaging technology, which significantly reduces thermal runaway risks and is expected to capture a substantial share of the solid-state battery packaging market [8][12]. - Highlan is a key supplier in the liquid cooling temperature control sector for energy storage, with a market share of approximately 15%, and is positioned to benefit from the shift towards liquid cooling technologies in AI data centers [10][12]. - Hande Electric is involved in both pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage, providing critical components for energy transmission and battery materials [10][12]. - Zhongdian Xinlong focuses on energy storage system integration and liquid cooling solutions, with a strong emphasis on long-duration energy storage technologies [12][16]. - Leshan Electric operates energy storage assets directly, showcasing a stable business model that encompasses the entire lifecycle from investment to operation [12][16]. - Huazi Technology specializes in energy storage system integration and core equipment development, covering various market segments [12][16]. - Changyang Technology is a key supplier of membrane materials for energy storage and power batteries, with a focus on solid-state battery materials [14][16]. - Yangdian Technology provides specialized transformers and energy conversion equipment for energy storage systems, ensuring stable demand regardless of technological changes [14][16]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The energy storage sector is rapidly evolving, with large-capacity battery cells becoming mainstream and the average discharge duration of storage systems increasing from 2.3 hours to 2.58 hours by the end of 2025 [16]. - Liquid cooling technology is replacing traditional air cooling methods, indicating a shift towards more efficient thermal management solutions in energy storage systems [16].

Valued at a market cap of $264.9 billion, Morgan Stanley (MS) is an investment bank and financial services company based in New York. It provides investment banking, wealth management, investment management, and sales & trading services to corporations, governments, institutions, and individual clients. Companies worth $200 billion or more are typically classified as “mega-cap stocks,” and MS fits the label perfectly, with its market cap exceeding this threshold, underscoring its size, influence, and dom ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley (MS) has a robust liquidity position with average liquidity resources of $385.9 billion as of December 31, 2025, and long-term debt of $341.7 billion, of which $26.2 billion is due within the next 12 months [1][10] - The company maintains strong investment-grade long-term credit ratings (A1, A-, A+) from major rating agencies, indicating low credit risk and a solid financial position [2] - Morgan Stanley has successfully passed the 2025 stress test and has increased its quarterly dividend by 8% to $1.00 per share, with a historical annualized growth rate of 17.16% over the past five years [3][10] - The company has reauthorized a share repurchase program of up to $20 billion, with $17.4 billion remaining as of December 31, 2025, positioning it well for sustained capital returns [4] Capital Returns Comparison - Compared to peers, Goldman Sachs has raised its dividend by 12.5% to $4.50 per share and has a share repurchase program of up to $40 billion, with nearly $32 billion remaining [5] - JPMorgan has also increased its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.50 per share and authorized a new share repurchase program worth $50 billion, with $33.8 billion remaining [6][7] Price Performance and Valuation - Morgan Stanley's shares have appreciated by 30.2% over the past year [8] - The company trades at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 3.34X, which is above the industry average [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts an 8.6% year-over-year increase in Morgan Stanley's earnings for 2026, with a further growth rate of 7% expected for 2027 [13]

摩根士丹利交易部门认为，市场对人工智能颠覆传统行业的恐慌情绪可能已经见顶，而对于担忧AI冲 击仍将持续的投资者而言，具有高进入壁垒且不易被技术淘汰的实体资产（即"HALO"交易）构成了当 前最佳的对冲策略。 最新的市场情绪催化剂来自人工智能公司Anthropic的企业代理（Enterprise Agents）简报会。与市场此 前担忧AI将完全取代现有软件供应商的悲观预期相反，该事件释放出两者更倾向于"合作"而非"替代"的 信号。这一预期的快速修正，直接引发了此前被严重做空的软件类股票出现释然性反弹。 然而，大盘指数之所以能够维持震荡格局，是因为资金迅速流向了防御性及周期性板块。在此期间，工 业板块上涨13%，日常消费品板块上涨16%，材料板块上涨22%，能源板块更是大涨25%。从2021年以 来的季度回报率来看，当前季度标普500指数表现最好与最差板块之间的收益率差，已达到自2021年以 来的第三高水平。 资金流向极值与"AI恐惧"的转折 对冲基金的资金流向进一步加剧了市场的极端头寸分布。据摩根士丹利主经纪商业务（PB）的数据显 示，今年以来，对冲基金净买入半导体和从电力到AI受益股的全栈AI资产，将这些板块 ...

2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济步入新发展阶段。 展望2026年，权益市场整体走向如何？A股突破关键点位后动能是否充足？外资何时回流超配？还有哪 些方向值得投资者去挖掘？ 2026年伊始，6家外资机构做客智通财经"春水向东流——《首席连线》2026年市场展望"专题把脉马年 投资，多家外资机构人士普遍认为，A股已进入"慢牛"阶段，投资逻辑正从"估值修复"转向"盈利主 导"，人工智能成为一致看好的核心赛道。 A股从估值修复转向盈利主导 对于2026年A股市场的整体判断，接受采访的外资机构普遍持乐观态度，认为A股已进入"慢牛"新阶 段，市场驱动逻辑正在发生深刻转变。 摩根士丹利预计2026年沪深300指数盈利增长率将达6%-7%，支撑这一判断的关键因素包括：上市公司 持续加大研发创新与资本开支投入，在 人工智能、高端制造等领域保持全球竞争优势；房地产市场企稳与消费增长加速的拐点有望出现，带动 相关行业盈利改善；财政政策与货币政策的多重支持，将进一步助力盈利增速攀升等。 富达基金股票部负责人周文群则预判，2026年下半年可能出现风格切换，"宏观基本面在经历了过去两 到三年的消化之后，我们可能会看到一些传统板块 ...

标准普尔500银行指数下跌2.2%，摩根士丹利股价下跌0.9%，富国银行股价下跌2.8%，花旗集团股价下 跌2.2%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley's IB fees jumped 23% in 2025 and 35% in 2024 as deal activity recovered.Evercore's IB & Equities business posted a 10.7% CAGR from 2020-2025, aided by recovery.Morgan Stanley's 12-month forward P/E is 14.89X versus Evercore's 15.88X, shows former trading at a discount.Morgan Stanley (MS) and Evercore Inc. (EVR) represent two distinct, top-tier investment banking (IB) models. Morgan Stanley pairs advisory and capital markets strength with sizable wealth and asset management platf ...

2026年，我国创新药出海延续高景气度，最近两天先为达、前沿生物及和铂医药接连达成三笔BD（商 务拓展）交易。 医药魔方NextPharma数据库显示，截至2月15日（春节假期期间暂未新增交易事件），中国创新药已发 生39起license-out（对外授权）交易事件，首付款约29.53亿美元，总金额超490亿美元。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，这一金额已超过 2025年全年总额的1/3，中国创新药的全球价值正快速 兑现。与此同时，国际顶级投行摩根士丹利（大摩）也在近期发布报告，明确看多中国医药行业长期创 新能力，行业分化与全球化成为核心关键词。 大摩持续看好中国创新药 在这份报告中，摩根士丹利提炼的关键词是"催化"。报告提到，根据管理层表述，2026年1月行业会议 后，中国本土医药资产的对外授权合作交易热度依旧高涨。此外，合作方对现有合作的执行情况及期权 行使行为，是评估资产质量和全球化价值的关键——2026年将迎来大量催化因素。 与前两年的侧重"性价比"高的后期管线项目不同，今年的BD交易更集中在早期研发阶段。以阿斯利康 与石药集团最高金额高达185亿美元的多项目合作为例，双方覆盖4个处于临床前至1期准备阶 ...