Core Viewpoint - The price-to-earnings multiple (referred to as "M") is crucial in determining stock prices and investor sentiment, particularly in the enterprise software sector, which is currently facing significant challenges due to concerns over AI replacing human employees [1][2][3]. Company Analysis - Service Now is highlighted as a strong company with a respected CEO, known for its ability to automate and digitize business processes, thereby improving efficiency [4][5]. - Despite Service Now's strong earnings and growth, its stock has declined over 50% in the past year, with a notable drop in its price-to-earnings multiple from 65 times forward earnings at the end of 2024 to just under 28 times earnings currently [6][8]. - The market is skeptical about Service Now's future profitability, believing that AI advancements will lead to reduced demand for user-based pricing, which poses an existential threat to the company [7][10]. Industry Context - The enterprise software industry, particularly companies like Service Now and Salesforce, is experiencing multiple compression, indicating that even with strong earnings, investor confidence is waning [10][12]. - The market's perception of growth potential is critical, as it currently views these companies as no longer being growth names despite their ongoing strong performance [11][12]. - There is an expectation that the price-to-earnings multiple may continue to shrink before it stabilizes, suggesting a potential buying opportunity in the future once the bottom is reached [13].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are fleeing from enterprise software stocks due to concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting traditional business models, making it difficult to assess future earnings potential [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is crucial for understanding stock valuations, reflecting how much investors are willing to pay for future profits [2]. - Current market conditions show a compression of P/E multiples across software stocks, indicating reduced investor confidence in future growth [2][3]. - ServiceNow exemplifies this trend, experiencing a significant drop in its stock price despite reporting better-than-expected earnings and a substantial buyback [3]. Group 2: ServiceNow's Performance - ServiceNow's stock has decreased approximately 49% over the past year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of about 15% during the same period [3]. - The company's P/E multiple has dramatically declined from the upper 60s in January 2025 to just under 28 times forward earnings after recent market reactions [4]. - Despite the market's harsh judgment, there is a belief that ServiceNow will continue to deliver earnings, although this does not currently influence its stock price [5].

Company Performance - Microsoft shares dropped by 10.0 percent, reaching their lowest closing level in nine months due to slowing cloud computing growth and disappointing third quarter operating margin guidance [2][3] - Meta Platforms saw a significant increase of 10.4 percent after reporting better than expected fourth quarter results and forecasting first quarter revenues above analyst estimates [5] - IBM Corp. shares surged after exceeding expectations on both top and bottom lines in its fourth quarter results [5] Sector Performance - The Dow Jones U.S. Software Index fell by 7.7 percent, marking a nine-month closing low, largely influenced by Microsoft’s decline and a 9.9 percent drop in ServiceNow shares despite its better than expected fourth quarter earnings [5][6] - Airline stocks increased significantly, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index rising by 2.3 percent, contributing to the overall market recovery [7] - Gold stocks experienced continued weakness, as indicated by a 3.8 percent slump in the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index, despite a recovery in gold prices [6] Market Overview - The major averages showed a recovery attempt after an early nosedive, with the Dow ending up 55.96 points or 0.1 percent at 49,071.56, while the S&P 500 closed down just 9.02 points or 0.1 percent at 6,969.01 [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 172.33 points or 0.7 percent at 23,685.12, having previously tumbled by as much as 2.6 percent [2] - Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region mostly moved higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index closing marginally higher and China's Shanghai Composite Index edging up by 0.2 percent [8] Economic Indicators - The yield on the benchmark ten-year note fell by 2.4 basis points to 4.227 percent, indicating a recovery in the bond market following previous pullbacks [9] - Upcoming earnings news from Apple may influence trading, with the tech giant set to report its fiscal first quarter results [10]

Software Sector Performance - The software sector is experiencing a significant sell-off, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) down over 5%, marking a decline not seen since tariff Liberation Day [6] - Major tech indices, including the Nasdaq, are also affected, alongside declines in bitcoin, gold, and silver [6] Microsoft and ServiceNow - Microsoft (MSFT) shares have dropped approximately 12%, potentially marking the seventh-worst decline in its history, despite reporting solid quarterly results [7] - Analysts indicate that the focus has shifted from demand to capacity timing and allocation, with a 66% year-over-year increase in capital expenditures raising investor concerns about the effectiveness of this investment in driving Azure growth [7] - ServiceNow (NOW) has seen a decline of over 10% despite reporting a 21.5% growth in subscription revenue, which analysts believe does not indicate acceleration [8] Other Software Companies - Other companies such as Atlassian (TEAM), Salesforce (CRM), Workday (WDAY), and DataDog (DOG) are also experiencing significant declines [8] Caterpillar's Performance - Caterpillar (CAT) reported fourth-quarter sales of $19.1 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $17.76 billion, with adjusted EPS of $5.16, surpassing the expected $4.71 [9] - The power and energy sales segment increased by 23% to $9.4 billion, with power generation revenue rising 44% to $3.24 billion, driven by demand related to data centers and AI applications [10] Altria and Joby Aviation - Altria (MO) is facing pressure after slightly missing profit estimates in Q4, while targeting mid-single-digit annual dividend-per-share growth through 2028 [11] - Joby Aviation (JOBY) is declining after announcing a $600 million offering of convertible senior notes and selling approximately 52.9 million shares of common stock at $11.35 per share [11] Barry Diller's Interest in CNN - Barry Diller has expressed interest in acquiring CNN and approached Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) regarding a deal last year, although no serious action was taken on his approach [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The market is shifting as rate pressures ease and earnings visibility improves, creating opportunities for fundamentally sound investments that were previously overlooked [1][14]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A narrow group of mega-cap companies dominated the market in the past two years, particularly in AI and cloud sectors, while other sectors were neglected [1]. - As 2026 begins, sectors that faced challenges in 2025 are gaining renewed interest from investors [1][14]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article highlights three companies that are undervalued and poised for recovery: Verizon Communications Inc., Crown Castle Inc., and ServiceNow Inc. [3][14]. Verizon Communications Inc. - Verizon is seen as a dividend giant that has been overlooked due to its perceived slow growth and sensitivity to rising rates [4]. - The company is stabilizing subscriber growth, increasing free cash flow, and improving its dividend outlook as rate pressures ease [4][6]. - Verizon has focused on tightening its balance sheet and reducing unnecessary spending, which positions it well for a market that rewards discipline [5][6]. Crown Castle Inc. - Crown Castle, a major player in wireless towers and fiber infrastructure, suffered in 2025 due to rising interest rates and a slowdown in 5G buildouts [7][8]. - The sell-off was excessive, as Crown Castle owns critical infrastructure that supports the wireless system, which is expected to see increased demand due to AI applications [8][9]. - The company is streamlining operations and focusing on high-return segments, setting the stage for improved margins and cash flow visibility [10]. ServiceNow Inc. - ServiceNow faced a slump in 2025 as it was overshadowed by the AI hype, despite having strong fundamentals and a focus on automation [11][12]. - The company is well-positioned for growth in 2026, with recurring revenue and expanding product offerings, making it a candidate for a significant breakout [13]. Group 3: Broader Market Trends - The current market reset is characterized by cooling inflation and the end of aggressive rate hikes, allowing for a broader range of companies to gain attention beyond the mega-cap tech giants [14][15]. - Companies like Verizon, Crown Castle, and ServiceNow are not merely rebound plays but represent a shift back to fundamental investing, as they were mispriced rather than fundamentally broken [15].

Core Insights - ServiceNow (NOW) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 92 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.75% and reflecting a 26% year-over-year increase. Revenues reached $3.57 billion, surpassing the consensus mark by 1.25% and increasing by 20.7% year over year [1][8]. Revenue Performance - Subscription revenues improved by 20.9% year over year to $3.47 billion, while on a constant currency basis, revenues increased by 19.5% to $3.41 billion. Professional services and other revenues rose by 12.1% year over year to $102 million, with a constant currency increase of 11% to $101 million [2]. - The current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) stood at $12.85 billion, marking a 25% year-over-year increase on a reported basis and a 21% increase on a constant currency basis. Remaining performance obligations on a constant currency basis rose 22.5% year over year to $28.2 billion [3]. Client Growth and Product Performance - The company recorded 244 transactions exceeding $1 million in net new annual contract value (ACV) in Q4 2025, representing nearly 40% year-over-year growth. ServiceNow ended the quarter with 603 customers with over $5 million in ACV, reflecting approximately 20% year-over-year growth [4]. - AI-powered products such as Now Assist and Raptor significantly contributed to the growth in net new ACV, with RaptorDB Pro tripling its net new ACV year over year. The number of workflows and transactions grew over 33%, increasing from $60 billion to $80 billion and from $4.8 trillion to $6.4 trillion, respectively [5][6]. Operating Metrics - In Q4 2025, the non-GAAP gross margin was 80.3%, down 160 basis points year over year. The subscription gross margin was 82.7%, also contracting by 160 basis points year over year. Professional services reported a gross loss of $2 million compared to a gross income of $7 million in the previous year [7]. - Operating expenses as a percentage of revenues decreased by 180 basis points year over year to 64.2%, while the non-GAAP operating margin expanded by 140 basis points year over year to 30.9% [9]. Cash Flow and Share Repurchase - As of December 31, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities totaling $6.28 billion, up from $5.41 billion as of September 30, 2025. Cash from operations was $2.24 billion, compared to $813 million in the previous quarter, with free cash flow reaching $2.03 billion, up from $592 million in the prior quarter [10]. - The company repurchased 3.6 million shares in Q4 2025 and announced a new share repurchase authorization worth $5 billion, along with plans for a $2 billion accelerated share repurchase program [11]. Guidance for 2026 - For 2026, ServiceNow expects subscription revenues to be between $15.53 billion and $15.57 billion, indicating a rise of 20.5% to 21% from 2025. The guidance includes a 1% contribution from Moveworks. The non-GAAP subscription gross margin is anticipated to be 82%, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 32% and a free cash flow margin expected to be 36% [12]. - For Q1 2026, subscription revenues are projected to be between $3.65 billion and $3.67 billion, suggesting year-over-year growth of 21.5% on a GAAP basis [13][14].

Group 1 - ServiceNow reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that exceeded Wall Street estimates, but the magnitude of the beats may have disappointed some investors [1] - Following the earnings report, ServiceNow's stock experienced a decline, contributing to a broader sell-off in the software sector alongside SAP's earnings [1] - The ongoing negative sentiment in the software industry is evident, as reflected in the market reaction to ServiceNow's results [1] Group 2 - ServiceNow announced a 5-to-1 stock split, which is part of its strategy to enhance shareholder value [1] - The company is set to acquire Armis for $7.75 billion, a move that has raised concerns among investors and analysts [1] - Morgan Stanley upgraded ServiceNow's stock based on a positive outlook regarding artificial intelligence, indicating potential growth opportunities in this area [1]

Industry Overview - Software stocks are experiencing a significant sell-off, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) dropping approximately 5% in morning trading, marking its largest one-day decline since last April [2] - The ETF is now down about 21% from its recent high, indicating that the software industry has entered bear-market territory [2] Company Performance - ServiceNow reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, yet its shares fell more than 11% on the day of the announcement [2] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley commented that while ServiceNow's performance was good, it was not sufficient to change the negative narrative surrounding incumbent application vendors [3] Market Sentiment - Investor concerns regarding the potential impact of artificial intelligence on traditional software business models are overshadowing positive earnings reports [3] - The sell-off has also affected major tech companies, with Microsoft experiencing a 10% decline after reporting a slowdown in cloud growth and providing softer-than-expected guidance for operating margins [4]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. software stocks experienced a decline due to SAP's cautious outlook on cloud services and a drop in ServiceNow shares following their earnings report, highlighting investor concerns over increasing competition from artificial intelligence [1] Group 1: Company Performance - SAP provided a cautious outlook for its cloud services, which contributed to the negative sentiment in the software sector [1] - ServiceNow shares fell post-earnings, further exacerbating investor worries about competition in the software industry [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The decline in U.S. software stocks reflects growing investor concerns regarding the competitive landscape, particularly the impact of artificial intelligence on traditional software companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - ServiceNow's stock experienced a significant decline, dropping over 11% to a low of $115.01, marking an eight-year low, despite reporting strong fourth-quarter subscription revenue growth and earnings that exceeded market expectations [1] Financial Performance - In Q4, ServiceNow's subscription revenue grew by 21% year-over-year to $3.47 billion [1] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $0.92, surpassing market forecasts [1] - The number of customers with annual contract values exceeding $5 million increased from 553 to 603 compared to the previous quarter [1] Market Sentiment - Investor concerns are rising regarding the impact of generative AI on the industry, which may threaten ServiceNow's market position [1] - Analyst Matthew Hedberg from RBC Capital Markets noted that despite the financial results being in line with or better than expectations, the stock price decline was unexpected, indicating a significant divergence in market valuation logic for the software industry [1]