Core Insights - The White Falcon Capital Q4 and FY 2025 Partner Letter highlights the top five positions in its portfolio, which include precious metal royalty companies, AMD, NFI Group, EPAM, and Nu Holdings [2] Group 1: Portfolio Composition - The portfolio is heavily weighted towards precious metal royalty companies, indicating a strategic focus on this sector [2] - AMD is included in the top positions, reflecting confidence in its growth potential within the semiconductor industry [2] - NFI Group, a player in the transportation sector, is also among the top holdings, suggesting a belief in its operational resilience and market opportunities [2] - EPAM, a global provider of software engineering and IT services, is recognized for its strong performance and growth prospects [2] - Nu Holdings, a fintech company, is part of the portfolio, indicating a focus on innovative financial solutions and digital banking [2]

Nu Holdings will invest almost half a billion dollars in office space in Brazil over the next five years as the banking fintech prepares to bring workers back to the office more frequently starting in July https://t.co/umC6ADCTgC ...

Company Overview - Nu Holdings is a digital banking platform that emerged to provide financial services to underserved consumers in Brazil, addressing high barriers to entry in traditional banking [4] - The company has expanded its services into Mexico and Colombia, targeting the largest populations in Latin America [5] Market Position and Growth - Nu has captured over 60% of the Brazilian population as customers, with significant growth potential in cross-selling and monetizing its existing consumer base [5][6] - In the third quarter, Nu added 4.3 million new members, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6] - The company is also exploring expansion into global markets, including the U.S., which presents further growth opportunities [7] Financial Performance - Nu's market capitalization stands at $86 billion, with a current stock price of $18.02 [9] - The stock has shown significant appreciation, gaining 62% in the previous year despite Berkshire Hathaway selling its stake in 2024 [10]

Core Viewpoint - Investing in fintech enterprises, particularly Nu Holdings, presents a compelling opportunity due to its strong growth and profitability, disrupting the traditional banking sector [1]. Company Overview - Nu Holdings operates a significant digital banking platform in Latin America, boasting 110 million customers in Brazil, 13 million in Mexico, and 4 million in Colombia [2]. - The company has demonstrated remarkable growth, with a 42% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3, and a net profit margin of 18.8% for that quarter [3]. Financial Performance - Analysts project that Nu's sales and earnings per share will grow at compound annual rates of 30% and 37%, respectively, from 2025 to 2027 [3]. - As of January 20, Nu shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7, which is lower than the S&P 500 index's multiple of 22.3, indicating a favorable valuation for investors [5]. Market Data - Current market capitalization of Nu Holdings is $81 billion [6]. - The stock's price range for the day is between $17.07 and $17.54, with a 52-week range of $9.01 to $18.37 [4].

Group 1 - Brazilian equities are entering 2026 with a more nuanced but still constructive outlook after a strong rally in 2025 driven by flows [1] - The investment thesis for the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) has shifted away from distressed valuations [1] Group 2 - The analyst covers stocks primarily in Brazil and Latin America, with occasional insights on global large caps [2]

Core Insights - Nu Holdings is rapidly growing in the Latin American banking sector, with over 100 million customers, surpassing all U.S. banks by customer count [1][3] - The company has seen significant financial growth, with net income increasing from breakeven to $2.5 billion in three years [5] - Nu Holdings is expanding its market presence, with plans to enter new countries and apply for a banking license in the U.S. [7][8] Customer Growth and Financial Performance - Nu Holdings has 110 million customers in Brazil and 13 million in Mexico, with the latter experiencing exponential growth [3] - Average revenue per active customer in Mexico has risen to $12.50 from $5.20 in 2021, while the cost per customer has decreased from $3 to $1 [4] - The company's market cap is currently $81 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.4 based on trailing net income [11] Market Expansion Potential - Nu Holdings operates in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, but has opportunities to expand into other Latin American markets, with a total regional population exceeding 600 million [6][8] - Management has indicated potential entry into markets such as Chile, Argentina, or Peru, which could further enhance growth [7] - The company is expected to layer additional financial services, such as credit cards, to increase revenue streams [12] Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that Nu Holdings could generate $10 billion in annual net income within five years, leading to a significantly lower P/E ratio of 8 based on current stock price [13] - Despite a nearly 50% rise in stock price over the past year, shares are still considered attractive for long-term investors at $18 or below [13]

Core Insights - Nu Holdings (NU) and Dave (DAVE) are both active in the fintech and digital banking sectors, focusing on the underbanked population, with NU primarily in Latin America and DAVE in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Nu Holdings (NU) - NU has demonstrated strong revenue growth, achieving a 14% sequential increase in Q3 2025, driven by its transformation into an AI-native super app [2][10] - The company reported a 19% increase in net income during the same quarter, leading to a 200 basis points improvement in margins, while maintaining a low cost to serve per active customer below $1 [3][10] - NU added 4.3 million customers in Q3 2025, bringing the total to 127 million, with a monthly average revenue per active customer (ARPAC) of $13.4 and a monthly activity rate of 83% [4][10] - The company has successfully expanded its market presence in Mexico, serving 14% of the population and achieving an ARPAC of $12.5 while keeping costs low [5] Group 2: Dave (DAVE) - DAVE's new pricing model and growth in ExtraCash originations contributed to a 15% revenue increase from the previous quarter and a 63% year-over-year growth in Q3 2025 [6][10] - The company achieved a significant 193% year-over-year increase in adjusted net income, despite rising operating expenses, indicating improved operational efficiency [7][10] - DAVE's average 28-day delinquency rate decreased to 2.33% in Q3 2025, showcasing effective credit risk management [8] - The new fee model, which includes a flat 5% fee on ExtraCash transactions, is designed to be more accessible for the underbanked demographic [9] Group 3: Financial Estimates and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NU's 2026 sales is $20.2 billion, reflecting a 29.5% year-over-year growth, with earnings expected to rise by 42.5% to 85 cents per share [12] - For DAVE, the 2026 sales estimate is $656.4 million, indicating a 20.2% year-over-year growth, with earnings projected to increase by 8% to $14 per share [13] - NU is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 19.53X, while DAVE is at 12.99X, indicating that DAVE is significantly cheaper compared to its historical valuations [14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - NU is recommended for portfolio inclusion due to its scale, customer base, and efficient AI-driven cost structure, positioning it as a strong player in the fintech sector [16] - DAVE is advised to be retained for now, as it shows growth potential but faces competitive pressures that may impact its profitability [17] - NU's growth trajectory and market presence provide a more attractive risk-reward profile compared to DAVE [18]

Core Insights - Nu has established a multi-year partnership with the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team, becoming the Official Team Partner ahead of the 2026 FIA Formula One World Championship Season [1] - The partnership aims to enhance Nu's global brand awareness and cultural relevance, targeting a digital-first audience of over 827 million fans, particularly in Latin America, the United States, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia [2][3] Company Overview - Nu is one of the largest digital financial services platforms globally, serving over 127 million customers and challenging traditional banking through a digital-first model and AI-driven technology [3][8] - The company focuses on providing innovative financial products and services while promoting financial access and transparency [8][9] Partnership Objectives - The partnership will include dynamic branding and activations both on and off the track, aimed at creating memorable experiences for fans and showcasing team drivers [5] - Both Nu and the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team share a commitment to innovation and performance, with plans to leverage technology to enhance fan engagement [6][11] Team Background - The Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team is one of the most successful teams in Formula 1 history, with eight Constructors' Championships and nine Drivers' Championships [4][12] - The team emphasizes a commitment to sustainability and positive impact, aligning with modern values in sports [13]

Core Insights - Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) has established a significant presence in Brazil, serving 60% of the adult population, and is now applying its successful model to expand in Mexico, where it has reached approximately 14% of the population as of Q3 2025, surpassing Brazil's 10% at a similar stage in 2019 [1][8] Financial Performance - The company reported record revenues of $4.2 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a 39% year-over-year increase on a foreign exchange-neutral basis, while maintaining a cost to serve in Mexico under $1, indicating strong operational efficiency [3][8] - The average revenue per active customer (ARPAC) in Mexico reached $12.5 in Q3 2025, which is close to Brazil's levels, supported by a higher income per capita in Mexico, which is 40% greater than that of Brazil [2][8] Market Position and Valuation - NU's stock has increased by 28.8% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average growth of 27.2%, while its peers, BNP Paribas and Bank of Montreal, saw gains of 14.6% and 21% respectively [5] - From a valuation perspective, NU trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.14X, which is significantly higher than the industry average of 11.38X and also above BNP Paribas and Bank of Montreal's ratios of 7.47X and 13.63X respectively [9] Growth Strategy - The company's robust ARPAC and operational efficiency underscore its potential for sustained growth in Mexico, with a focus on long-term investment and scaling rather than short-term profits [4]

Summary of the Americas Thematic Focus List Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Industry**: The thematic focus is on various sectors across North America and Latin America, particularly in technology, energy, healthcare, and education. - **Companies Featured**: The focus list includes notable companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Eli Lilly, and Walmart, among others. Key Themes for 2026 1. **Tech Diffusion**: Emphasizes the rapid adoption of AI technologies across various sectors, with significant implications for productivity and competitive dynamics [12][14]. 2. **The Future of Energy**: Focuses on the increasing demand for energy driven by AI infrastructure and the transition to renewable energy sources [12][17]. 3. **The Multipolar World**: Highlights the shift towards localized supply chains and national economic security, impacting multinational corporations [12][13]. 4. **Societal Shifts**: Explores the implications of demographic changes, AI-driven employment disruption, and evolving consumer preferences [12][18]. Americas Thematic Focus List - **List Composition**: The focus list includes 18 high-conviction stock ideas, with a target holding period of 12-18 months [9][20]. - **Key Companies on the List**: - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Positioned as a leader in AI infrastructure, with a projected 32% upside to a price target of $238.18 [23]. - **Microsoft (MSFT)**: Expected to capture significant AI spending, with a 42% upside to a price target of $456.66 [23]. - **Eli Lilly (LLY)**: A leader in the GLP-1 market, with a 25% upside to a price target of $1,032.97 [23]. - **Walmart (WMT)**: Leveraging AI for operational efficiency, with a 13% upside to a price target of $119.20 [23]. Methodology and Specifications - **Focus List Size**: 15-20 stocks, with equal weighting upon construction [21]. - **Sector Weights**: No fixed sector weights, aiming for diversification [21][22]. - **Regional Weights**: Targeting 80-85% in the USA and 15-20% in Latin America [28]. Important Insights and Data - **Amazon's Growth**: Amazon's custom silicon strategy has grown 150% sequentially, indicating strong demand for its AI capabilities [29]. - **Eli Lilly's Market Potential**: The global diabesity market is projected to exceed $150 billion by the early 2030s, with significant growth opportunities for Eli Lilly [39]. - **NVIDIA's Dominance**: NVIDIA is positioned to capture a significant share of the projected $3-4 trillion in annual AI infrastructure spending by the end of the decade [53]. - **Walmart's AI Strategy**: Walmart's AI initiatives have led to a 50% automation rate in its supply chain, significantly reducing delivery costs [68]. Conclusion The Americas Thematic Focus List presents a strategic overview of high-conviction investment opportunities across key sectors, driven by transformative themes such as technology diffusion and energy transition. The insights provided highlight the potential for significant growth and the evolving landscape of investment in the Americas.