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Philip Morris International Shares Surge as Transformation Continues. Is It Too Late to Buy the Stock?
The Motley Fool· 2025-02-12 23:23
Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris International has transformed into a strong growth company driven by its smoke-free business, with significant stock performance improvements over the past year [1][10]. Financial Performance - The company's organic revenue rose 7.2% year over year to $9.7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbing 14% to $1.55 [5][6]. - Gross profits increased 12.6% organically, with Zyn and IQOS having higher gross margins than traditional cigarettes [7]. Growth Drivers - Zyn, a nicotine pouch brand, saw volumes surge 46.2% in Q4 to 183.8 million cans, and is expected to grow between 34% to 41% in 2025 [3][11]. - Heated tobacco units (HTUs) volumes rose 5.1% to 35.7 billion units, with a 13% increase when excluding inventory effects, driven by markets in Japan and Europe [4][11]. - Traditional cigarette volumes increased by 1.1% to 152.8 billion units, with a slight market share decline outside the U.S. and China [5]. Future Guidance - The company anticipates organic revenue growth of 6% to 8% and adjusted EPS between $7.04 to $7.17, indicating growth of 10.5% to 12.5% in constant currency [8][9]. - Expected operating cash flow is about $11 billion, with $1.5 billion allocated for capital expenditures to expand Zyn capacity in the U.S. [9]. Valuation - The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just over 20 times for 2025, with a PEG ratio under 0.4, indicating it is undervalued [13]. - The company offers a robust quarterly dividend of $1.35, translating to a forward dividend yield of 3.7% [10][14].
Philip Morris: No Margin Of Safety
Seeking Alpha· 2025-02-10 02:13
Core Insights - Philip Morris International reported strong financial results for its fourth quarter, leading to an 11% surge in its share price and reaching a new all-time high [1] Financial Performance - The company exceeded analyst expectations regarding its earnings per share (EPS) [1]
Philip Morris Q4 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates, Stock Rallies
ZACKS· 2025-02-06 18:46
Core Insights - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) shares increased by 9.4% in pre-market trading following strong fourth-quarter 2024 results, with both revenue and earnings surpassing expectations [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter reached $1.55, a 14% increase year over year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.51 [2] - Net revenues totaled $9,706 million, reflecting a 7.3% increase on a reported and organic basis, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9,362.4 million [3] - The adjusted operating income rose 15.3% to $3,519 million, driven by improved pricing and volume/mix, despite increased marketing and administrative costs [6] Product Performance - Revenues from combustible products grew by 6% due to high single-digit pricing and strong industry volumes [4] - Smoke-free business revenues increased by 9.2%, accounting for 40% of total revenues, with significant contributions from IQOS and ZYN [5] - Total shipment volumes rose by 2.3% to 193.1 billion units in the fourth quarter [5] Regional Performance - European net revenues grew 5.5% organically to $4,056 million, with shipment volumes remaining flat at 53.6 billion units [7] - In the SSEA, CIS & MEA regions, net revenues increased 6.6% to $2,868 million, with a 4.1% rise in shipment volumes [8] - The Americas saw a 21% organic revenue surge to $1,261 million, although shipment volumes dipped by 2% [9] Future Outlook - For 2025, adjusted EPS is projected to be in the range of $7.04-$7.17, indicating a growth of 7.2-9.1% [13] - PM anticipates net revenues to increase by 6-8% on an organic basis and operating income to rise by 10.5-12.5% [15] - The company expects operating cash flow of around $11 billion in 2025, with capital expenditures estimated at nearly $1.5 billion [15]
PMI(PM) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-06 18:34
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an organic net revenue growth of 9.8% and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 15.6% in currency neutral terms, reflecting strong performance despite currency headwinds [19][20][24] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 9.3% in dollar terms, achieving record operating cash flow of $12.2 billion, significantly above forecasts [20][21] - The total smoke-free net revenues reached almost $15 billion in 2024, accounting for 40% of total net revenues in Q4 [12][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The smoke-free business saw a 17% net revenue growth and a 23% gross profit growth, reaching close to $10 billion in gross profit [25] - The combustible business experienced a 6% net revenue growth and a 7% gross profit growth, contributing positively despite significant input cost headwinds [25][26] - IQOS shipments grew by 13% in adjusted IMS, with total smoke-free volume growth of 13.5% [28][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the US, ZYN's growth was notable, with a 51% increase in shipment volumes, while international nicotine pouch shipments grew by 75% [9][57] - The company expanded its smoke-free product presence to 37 markets, with a significant increase in adult users [12][57] - The combustible market showed a 0.6% growth, primarily driven by markets where smoke-free products are not permitted [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue its transformation towards smoke-free products, with a focus on brand building and innovation [11][15] - The management emphasized the importance of regulatory support for smoke-free products and the need for continued education on tobacco harm reduction [15][54] - The company is confident in achieving its 2025 growth targets, expecting strong growth in smoke-free products [61][80] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the ongoing transformation and the potential for sustainable growth and returns in 2025 and beyond [11][24] - The company acknowledged challenges from regulatory environments but remains committed to driving growth through innovation and market expansion [15][54] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for continued strong growth across all categories, particularly in smoke-free products [61][80] Other Important Information - The company achieved significant cost efficiencies, delivering over $750 million in gross cost savings for the year [33] - The FDA's recent authorization for nicotine pouches was highlighted as a significant milestone for the industry [54] - The company plans to invest in its successful smoke-free product lines while returning cash to shareholders through dividends [80] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the composition of growth in 2025 and any progress in new markets? - Management indicated that growth will primarily be organic, with strong performance expected in Japan and parts of Europe, despite challenges in Italy and the Czech Republic due to regulatory issues [87][89] Question: What are the key drivers behind margin improvements? - Management highlighted pricing contributions, positive mix effects from smoke-free products, and easing cost headwinds as key drivers for margin expansion [92][95] Question: How does the company plan to manage retail prices amid supply constraints? - Management acknowledged that managing retail prices is challenging during supply shortages but expects normalization as supply improves [132][135]
Philip Morris Tops Q4 Revenue Forecast
The Motley Fool· 2025-02-06 16:54
Core Insights - Philip Morris International exceeded earnings expectations for Q4 2024, driven by its expanding smoke-free product lineup [2][3] - The company reported adjusted EPS of $1.55, surpassing the estimated $1.50, and revenue of $9.71 billion, exceeding the forecasted $9.44 billion [2][4] Financial Performance - Q4 2024 metrics include: - EPS: $1.55 (14% increase YOY from $1.36) [4] - Revenue: $9.71 billion (7.3% increase YOY from $9.05 billion) [4] - Adjusted operating income: $3.52 billion (15.3% increase YOY from $3.05 billion) [4] - Smoke-free revenue: $3.9 billion (9.2% increase YOY from $3.6 billion) [4] - Combustibles revenue: $5.8 billion (6% increase YOY from $5.4 billion) [4] Strategic Shift - The company is strategically shifting towards smoke-free products, which now account for 40% of overall revenue and approximately 42% of gross profit [2][3] - The focus on smoke-free growth is highlighted by the investment in Swedish Match, enhancing its portfolio with the ZYN brand [6] Product Segment Growth - Revenue from smoke-free products grew by 40% in Q4 2024, with Heated Tobacco Units (HTUs) shipments increasing by 5.1% and cigarette shipments rising by 1.1% [7] - The company aims to transition consumers from traditional smoking to healthier alternatives [7] Regulatory and Geographic Expansion - Regulatory successes include U.S. FDA authorization of ZYN nicotine pouches and IQOS devices as Modified Risk Tobacco Products, enhancing credibility for smoke-free alternatives [8] - Adjusted International Market Share (IMS) grew significantly in Japan and Europe, with smoke-free products gaining traction in Italy and Spain [9] Challenges and Outlook - The company faces challenges such as ongoing litigation, including a non-cash impairment charge of $2.3 billion related to the Canadian affiliate RBH [10] - Despite challenges, traditional products remain significant, with Marlboro accounting for 39% of cigarette shipment volume [10] - For 2025, the company projects adjusted EPS between $7.04 and $7.17, indicating a potential increase of up to 9.1% from 2024 [11][12]
Philip Morris (PM) Q4 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-02-06 16:31
Core Insights - Philip Morris reported revenue of $9.71 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, reflecting a 7.3% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +3.67% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.36 billion [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) was $1.55, up from $1.36 in the same quarter last year, with an EPS surprise of +2.65% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.51 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Shipment Volume for PMI Cigarettes and Heated Tobacco Units (HTUs) was 35.72 billion, slightly below the average estimate of 36.16 billion [4] - In Europe, the shipment volume for cigarettes was 38.39 billion, exceeding the estimate of 38.21 billion [4] - Total net revenues by geography showed significant growth, with Europe at $4.06 billion (+12.2% year-over-year), Americas at $1.26 billion (+131.4% year-over-year), and SSEA, CIS & MEA at $2.87 billion (+6% year-over-year) [4] - Net revenues from smoke-free products excluding Wellness and Healthcare reached $410 million, a +9.6% increase year-over-year, while revenues from Wellness and Healthcare were $87 million, up +26.1% year-over-year [4] - Total combustible tobacco revenues were $5.82 billion, reflecting a +6% year-over-year change, while total smoke-free revenues excluding Wellness and Healthcare were $3.80 billion, showing an +8.9% year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - Philip Morris shares have returned +7.5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.1% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]
Philip Morris Stock Hits All-Time High on Demand for Smoke-Free Options
Investopedia· 2025-02-06 15:40
Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) shares reached an all-time high following better-than-expected results and guidance driven by strong demand for non-smoking alternatives [1][5] - The company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.55, with revenue increasing 7% year-over-year to $9.7 billion, surpassing Visible Alpha forecasts [1][5] Sales Performance - Sales of smoke-free products rose 9% to $3.9 billion, while sales of combustibles increased 6% to $5.8 billion [2] - Shipment volume grew 2% to 193.1 billion, with oral smoke-free products up 22% to 4.6 billion, heated tobacco products rising 5% to 35.7 billion, and cigarette sales increasing 1% to 152.8 billion [2] Management Commentary - CEO Jacek Olczak stated that the company has "strong momentum across all categories" and expressed confidence in its smoke-free transformation and brand portfolio to deliver value for shareholders [3] - The company anticipates full-year adjusted EPS between $7.04 and $7.17, exceeding the Visible Alpha estimate of $7.01 [3] Stock Performance - Shares of Philip Morris International increased by 7% to $140.16, previously reaching a record high of $146.77, and have gained over 50% in value over the past year [4]
PMI(PM) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-02-06 15:12
2024 Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results February 6, 2025 Introduction • A glossary of terms as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated February 6, 2025 and on our Investor Relations website with additional non- GAAP reconciliations available at the end of this presentation 2 Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements ...
Philip Morris Q4: Earnings Beat, Smoke-Free Sales Gain Ground & More
Benzinga· 2025-02-06 14:32
Philip Morris International Inc. PM shares are trading higher on Thursday after fourth-quarter FY24 earnings result.The company reported revenue growth of 7.3% year-on-year to $9.71 billion, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $9.44 billion.The smoke-free business accounted for 40% of the company’s total net revenues, up by 0.7pp versus the fourth quarter last year.Cigarette and Heated Tobacco unit (HTU) shipment volume in fourth-quarter grew by 1.9% Y/Y, reflecting growth of 5.1% and 1.1% for HTUs an ...
Philip Morris (PM) Beats Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-02-06 14:16
Core Insights - Philip Morris reported quarterly earnings of $1.55 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.51 per share, and up from $1.36 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 2.65% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $9.71 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.67% and increasing from $9.05 billion year-over-year [2] - Philip Morris shares have increased approximately 8.8% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 3.1% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.60 on revenues of $8.9 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $7.04 on revenues of $39.34 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Philip Morris is mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Tobacco industry is currently ranked in the top 21% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Turning Point Brands, another company in the Tobacco industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.65 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 17.7% [9]