Core Viewpoint - High valuations and uncertain business conditions are expected to negatively impact certain AI stocks over the next year, despite significant returns since the end of the 2022 bear market [1] Group 1: Palantir Technologies - Palantir Technologies has seen its stock rise nearly 33-fold from its 2022 low, driven by its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) which has delivered substantial productivity gains for clients [4] - The stock is currently trading at a market cap of $450 billion, with a trailing P/E ratio just above 450 and a forward P/E of around 270, indicating potential bubble territory [5][7] - Revenue for the first nine months of 2025 increased by 51% year over year, but the stock is priced beyond perfection, raising questions about its near-term upside [8] Group 2: C3.ai - C3.ai has developed over 130 software applications for AI adoption, but has faced significant challenges, including the departure of its founder and CEO due to health issues [9][10] - The company reduced its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance from $448 million-$485 million to $290 million-$310 million, with a 20% year-over-year revenue decline in the first half of fiscal 2026 [11][12] - The stock has fallen over 60% from a year ago, trading at a P/S ratio of 5, but deteriorating financials and uncertain management direction raise concerns about its investment viability [14] Group 3: Rigetti Computing - Rigetti Computing operates in the quantum computing sector, which is crucial for next-generation AI, but faces competition from larger companies like Alphabet and IBM [15][16] - The company reported a revenue of just $5.2 million in the first nine months of 2025, a 39% decline from the previous year, and incurred a net loss of $198 million [18][19] - The stock has decreased nearly 60% from its October 2025 high, and with a price-to-book ratio of 22, it presents more risk than reward for investors [19]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing is making significant advancements in quantum computing through new chiplet-based architectures and improved hardware fidelity, which may present a substantial investment opportunity if execution and competition are managed effectively [1] Company Developments - The company is enhancing its hardware capabilities and forming partnerships with both government and industry, indicating a strategic approach to expand its market presence [1] Market Potential - As quantum computing progresses towards practical applications, Rigetti could potentially unlock considerable upside for investors, contingent on its ability to navigate competitive challenges [1]

Core Insights - Quantum computing is emerging as a significant technological advancement, with Rigetti Computing gaining notable attention in the market [1] - Rigetti's stock has increased by 61% year-to-date as of December 24, indicating strong investor interest [1] Investment Activity - Multiple asset managers have made substantial investments in Rigetti, with Vanguard Group acquiring 22.8 million shares on June 30, 2025, and an additional 9.2 million shares on September 30 [3] - Blackrock purchased 15 million shares on March 30, 2025, and added 5.7 million more on June 30 [3] - Billionaire-led hedge funds, including Millennium Management, Citadel Advisors, and Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, have also increased their holdings in Rigetti during the third quarter [4] Company Financials - Rigetti Computing has a current market capitalization of $8.1 billion, with a stock price of $22.41 [5] - The company's 52-week stock price range is between $5.95 and $58.15, indicating significant volatility [6] - Rigetti reported trailing revenue of $7.5 million and a net loss of $351 million, highlighting its struggle towards profitability despite its high market valuation [7]

Group 1: Company Achievements - Rigetti Computing achieved significant hardware milestones in 2025, including the demonstration of the industry's largest multichip quantum computer and the introduction of a 100+-qubit chiplet system with 99.5% fidelity [1] - The company secured commercial success with two orders totaling $5.7 million for its Novera quantum computing systems, to be delivered in the first half of 2026, and a three-year $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory for developing a superconducting quantum network [2] - Rigetti became one of the first companies to join Nvidia's NVQLink platform, which integrates quantum computers with artificial intelligence supercomputers [2] Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - Rigetti was not selected as one of the first 11 companies by the U.S. government's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency for the second phase of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, which aims to assess the progress towards building a fault-tolerant quantum computer [3] - Despite having fast superconducting qubits, Rigetti's 99.5% fidelity is considered error-prone, with data scientists recommending that error-reducing techniques should not be introduced until hardware reaches 99.9% fidelity [4] - The company is experiencing cash burn and has minimal revenue, making it a highly speculative stock with significant risks [5][6] Group 3: Industry Comparison - IBM is transforming into a quantum-computing-first company, supported by its legacy business, and is not treating quantum computing as a side project like some competitors [8]

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks, particularly Rigetti Computing, have seen significant interest in 2025, driven by the potential of quantum technology to solve complex problems in various fields [1][3] - Despite the excitement, many quantum computers, including those from Rigetti, still face high error rates, hindering their practical application [2] - Rigetti's stock has more than doubled in the past year, reaching a market capitalization of $8.5 billion, but concerns about its revenue and valuation suggest a potential decline in 2026 [3][14] Company Overview - Rigetti Computing, founded in 2013, has developed a vertically integrated supply chain, including its own fabrication facility for quantum chips and a proprietary quantum programming language called Quil [5] - The company has created a cloud computing platform for businesses to access quantum computing resources, which enhances its competitive edge [5] - Rigetti's Cepheus-1-36Q multichip quantum computer boasts a high fidelity of 99.5%, indicating its potential for practical applications [6][8] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Rigetti generated only $5.2 million in revenue, a 39% decrease from the same period in 2024, raising concerns about its financial sustainability [9] - The company reported a net loss of $198 million during the same period, with ongoing increases in operating expenses despite declining revenues [11] - Rigetti has secured purchase orders that could generate $5.7 million in revenue in the first half of 2026, providing a potential for growth [10] Valuation Concerns - Rigetti's stock is currently trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1,010, which is deemed unsustainable compared to industry peers like Nvidia and Palantir Technologies [14][16] - The significant premium on Rigetti's valuation, combined with its minimal revenue and substantial losses, raises red flags for investors [16] - The stock has already decreased by 53% from its peak in October, and further declines are anticipated if the company fails to scale its quantum systems [16]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with a notable decline of around 60% from its October high, despite being up approximately 50% year-to-date [1][2]. Company Performance - Rigetti Computing's stock price is currently at $24.50, with a market capitalization of $8.1 billion [6]. - The stock has a 52-week range of $5.95 to $58.15, indicating substantial fluctuations in value [6]. - The company has a gross margin of -6849.48%, highlighting financial challenges [6]. Industry Context - The quantum computing industry is still in its early stages, with significant potential for growth, projected to exceed $100 billion by 2035 according to McKinsey & Company [7]. - The market is crowded with various players, including private companies and established tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft [4]. Funding and Contracts - Rigetti relies heavily on external funding and must secure research contracts to maintain operations, as it lacks a legacy business to support its financial needs [8]. - A critical contract opportunity is with DARPA, which Rigetti did not advance in, unlike competitors such as IonQ and IBM [9][10]. Future Outlook - The potential for Rigetti's stock to rebound in 2026 is contingent on the broader market's risk appetite and the company's ability to secure significant contracts [12]. - Investors are advised to focus on the best-performing quantum computing startups, as the complexities of the industry make it challenging to identify winners without expert guidance [11].

Industry Overview - Quantum computing is attracting investor interest due to its potential for significant commercial disruption and long-term technological ambition [1] - The industry is in early stages, but progress in optimization, simulation, and advanced analytics is becoming clearer [1] Company Strategies - Rigetti Computing focuses on superconducting, gate-based quantum processors and aims for fault-tolerant systems through a modular "chiplet" approach [5][10] - IonQ utilizes trapped-ion technology, emphasizing qubit quality and customer traction, with a clearer commercialization narrative [6][12] Price Performance - Rigetti's stock has increased by 118.3% over the past six months, while IonQ's stock has risen by 25.7% during the same period [3] Business Models - Rigetti's revenue model is heavily reliant on research-driven customers, including government agencies and early enterprise pilots, which may not stabilize revenue [8] - IonQ is focusing on commercialization by making its systems accessible through cloud platforms, allowing for a monetization strategy based on customer usage [9] Growth Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year decline of 26.88%, with a projected loss per share of 68 cents [14] - In contrast, IonQ's 2025 sales are expected to grow by 151.78%, with a projected loss per share of $5.08 [17] Investment Considerations - Rigetti is seen as a longer-term investment focused on hardware scalability, while IonQ offers a more immediate path to usability and customer adoption [13][22] - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a Value Score of F, indicating that their stocks are priced based on future potential rather than current fundamentals [20]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is leveraging a vertically integrated superconducting quantum computing stack, which includes in-house chip design, fabrication, packaging, and full-system deployment through Quantum Cloud Services, allowing for faster iterations and reduced reliance on third-party foundries [1][7] - The company's roadmap emphasizes modular scaling and integration with government labs, universities, and early enterprise customers, enhancing the relevance of its systems as use cases mature [2][7] - Rigetti's strategy indicates improved survivability and adaptability in the pre-scale phase of quantum computing, suggesting that vertical integration can provide a tangible scaling advantage over time [3] Peers Updates - Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) reported a significant third-quarter 2025 performance with revenue increasing approximately 280% year over year, indicating early commercial traction for its photonics-based quantum machines [4] - Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) focuses on quantum cybersecurity through its QuantumCloud platform, recently expanding customer contracts and updating revenue guidance to indicate meaningful growth [5] Financial Performance - Rigetti's shares have increased by 133.7% over the past six months, contrasting with a 5.1% decline in the industry [6] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 23.52, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 earnings suggests an 88.9% decline from the previous year, with current estimates indicating a loss of $0.68 per share for the current year [10][11]

Group 1 - Rigetti Computing Inc. (NASDAQ:RGTI) experienced a share price increase of 13.13% on Monday, closing at $26.88, driven by a broader market rally and quarterly window-dressing activities [1][3] - The company is part of a positive trend in the quantum computing sector, alongside peers such as Quantum Computing Inc., D-Wave Quantum, and IonQ [3] - Wedbush has given Rigetti an "outperform" rating with a price target of $35, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from its latest closing price [3][4] Group 2 - Wedbush's coverage highlights Rigetti's extensive experience in research and development within the quantum computing industry, positioning it as a leader in superconducting qubit technology [4] - The company is expected to benefit from anticipated growth in the quantum hardware addressable market in the long term [4]

Core Viewpoint - Citron Research emphasizes that Infleqtion has transitioned from a conceptual science project to a commercially viable entity, highlighting its partnership with Safran SA for GPS-independent timing solutions [2]. Company Analysis - Infleqtion is identified as a neutral atom quantum technology company that has gone public through a SPAC merger earlier this year, marking its shift to a commercially viable phase [2]. - Rigetti Computing Inc. is contrasted with Infleqtion, as it struggles to meet benchmarks set by DARPA, indicating a lag in its development compared to Infleqtion [3]. - The market capitalization of Rigetti is noted at $7.84 billion, while Infleqtion's market cap is just over $720 million, with expectations that their valuations will converge by early 2026 [4]. Investment Strategy - Citron has adopted a long position on Infleqtion while shorting Rigetti, aiming to capitalize on the divergence in their valuations, as the market has not yet recognized the execution gap between the two companies [5]. - Since the initiation of this trade, Rigetti has seen a decline of 35.50%, while Infleqtion has only decreased by 1.68%, amidst broader skepticism in the quantum computing sector [6]. Market Performance - On a recent trading day, Infleqtion's shares rose by 13.50% to close at $15.72, while Rigetti's shares increased by 13.24% to $26.90, reflecting a positive trend in quantum stocks [7]. - The year 2025 has been successful for quantum stocks, with analysts and investors anticipating continued momentum into the new year [8]. - Year-to-date performance for quantum stocks shows Infleqtion up 53.82%, while Rigetti is up 34.53%, indicating strong performance relative to the sector [9].