Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks gained significant attention in 2025, with Rigetti Computing set to outperform IonQ, achieving a year-to-date gain of nearly 50% compared to IonQ's 15% [1] Company Analysis: IonQ - IonQ's potential advantage lies in its trapped-ion technology, utilizing actual ytterbium and barium atoms, which are more stable and can lead to fewer errors in quantum computing [4] - The company aims to build a comprehensive quantum computing ecosystem, similar to Nvidia's approach in AI infrastructure, by making aggressive acquisitions in quantum sensing, interconnect, satellite, and semiconductor technology [5] - IonQ has a strong financial position with a significant cash reserve to fund research and development, and its revenue grew over 200% in Q3, reaching nearly $40 million [6] Company Analysis: Rigetti Computing - Rigetti's technology is noted for being faster than IonQ's but is also more error-prone, indicating a trade-off between speed and reliability in their quantum computing solutions [7]

Group 1 - Pure-play quantum computing stocks gained significant attention from Wall Street in 2025 as major financial institutions initiated coverage on several companies [1] - Heading into 2026, IonQ (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) received the most buy ratings and the highest average price targets from Wall Street analysts [1] - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is receiving mixed reviews from analysts, indicating a less favorable outlook compared to its peers [1]

Core Insights - The quantum computing investment landscape has experienced significant volatility, with stocks initially selling off in early 2025 but later showing upward momentum before declining again in October due to reduced market risk appetite [2][16] - IonQ and Rigetti Computing have both seen substantial declines from their October highs, with IonQ down approximately 43% and Rigetti down about 60% [3] - The success of quantum computing stocks in 2026 will largely depend on the market's risk appetite rather than the companies' actual technological advancements [15][16] Company Analysis - IonQ utilizes trapped ion qubits, which offer high fidelity and accuracy, achieving a notable 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity, significantly surpassing competitors using superconducting qubits [9][7] - Rigetti Computing employs superconducting qubits but has struggled to close the gap with IonQ, facing challenges in securing research contracts that are crucial for long-term viability [11][12] - IonQ's leadership in the trapped ion approach positions it favorably, but it must establish a strong market foothold before competitors potentially catch up in accuracy and speed [10][17] Market Dynamics - The Quantum Benchmarking Initiative by DARPA aims to identify quantum technologies that can operate cost-effectively at a commercial scale, with IonQ selected for Stage B while Rigetti was not [12][14] - The current market for quantum computers is limited, primarily consisting of research contracts, which makes winning these contracts essential for companies like IonQ and Rigetti [11] - The volatility of quantum computing stocks is influenced by broader market conditions, with speculative valuations making them sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment [15][16]

Core Insights - Wedbush predicts a significant rise in technology stocks, with an expected increase of over 20% by 2026, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence [1][2] Group 1: AI and Technology Predictions - The second, third, and fourth derivative applications of artificial intelligence will take shape in software, chips, and infrastructure, contributing to the anticipated rise in tech stocks [2] - Apple and Google are set to formalize their AI partnership around the Gemini project, which is expected to bolster Apple's AI strategy and help achieve a market valuation of $5 trillion by 2026 [2][3] - Microsoft is projected to experience its best growth period by 2026, becoming the top-performing cloud software company as more enterprises accelerate their AI strategies using Azure [3][4] Group 2: Company-Specific Forecasts - Tesla is expected to successfully launch autonomous taxis in over 30 cities by 2026, with a base stock price target of $600 and an optimistic target of $800 [2] - Crowdstrike and Palo Alto Networks are highlighted as top picks in the cybersecurity sector, which is anticipated to see mergers and acquisitions [3] - Oracle is expected to reach a stock price target of $250 by 2026, despite current market pessimism [3] - Nvidia remains a leader in the AI chip sector, with an optimistic stock price target of $275 by 2026, as it expands its market in China [4] - Palantir Technologies is expected to become a key player in the AI revolution with its AI platform, aiming for a valuation of $1 trillion within the next 2 to 3 years [4] Group 3: Acquisition and Investment Opportunities - Nebius is identified as a potential acquisition target for a major data center by 2026, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon as possible buyers [2] - Quantum technology companies like IonQ and Rigetti Computing are seen as candidates for investment due to their national security implications [3]

Core Insights - Wedbush predicts that technology stocks will rise over 20% by 2026, driven by the ongoing AI revolution and significant investments required for its advancement [1][2] Group 1: AI and Technology Stocks - The second, third, and fourth derivative applications of the AI revolution will take shape in software, chips, and infrastructure, contributing to the projected rise in tech stocks [2] - Apple and Google are expected to announce a formal AI partnership around the Gemini project, which will solidify Apple's AI strategy and potentially help achieve a market cap of $5 trillion by 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Key Company Predictions - Tesla is anticipated to successfully launch autonomous taxis in over 30 cities by 2026, with a basic stock price expectation of $600 and an optimistic target of $800 [2] - Crowdstrike and Palo Alto Networks are highlighted as top cybersecurity companies, with the sector expected to perform well and see mergers and acquisitions [3] - Oracle is projected to reach a target price of $250 per share by 2026, despite current market pessimism [3] Group 3: Emerging Technologies - Nebius is identified as a potential acquisition target for major data center companies, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon as possible buyers [2] - Quantum technology companies IonQ and Rigetti Computing are noted for their potential national security significance and investment interest from the Trump administration [3] Group 4: Major Players in AI - Nvidia remains a leader in the global AI chip market, with an optimistic price target of $275 by 2026, as demand factors are believed to be underestimated [4] - Palantir Technologies is expected to expand its commercial AI success with its AI platform, aiming for a valuation of $1 trillion within the next 2 to 3 years [4]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) has experienced significant stock price volatility, moving from $22 to $56 and then retracing to approximately $23, attributed to a broader risk-off sentiment in high-duration assets rather than any negative developments in the company's roadmap or financial health [1]. Group 1 - Rigetti's stock price increased significantly before experiencing a retracement, indicating potential market volatility and investor sentiment shifts [1]. - The company's financial roadmap and balance sheet remain intact despite the stock price fluctuations, suggesting underlying stability [1]. - The investment strategy focuses on identifying high-potential opportunities with significant upside potential, emphasizing the importance of risk management and long-term compounding [1].

Core Thesis - Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) is facing significant near-term downside due to forced selling pressure from multiple ETF rebalances occurring on December 19th, which includes a $30 million liquidation of RGTI shares from the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) [2][4] Company Fundamentals - RGTI has a market capitalization of $10 billion but generated less than $2 million in revenue last quarter while burning through $43.6 million in cash over nine months, primarily funded through retail share sales [4] - The company has not seen any insider purchases since June 2022, with recent insider sales occurring as recently as December 10th, and the CEO holding no shares, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future [3][4] Market Dynamics - The convergence of ETF-driven selling, ongoing insider exits, and weak operational performance creates a high-risk environment for existing shareholders, suggesting a potential sharp market correction for RGTI [4][5] - The stock has experienced a run-up over the quarter despite negative earnings and an unreasonably high price relative to its fundamentals, making it particularly vulnerable to the upcoming selling pressure [3][4]

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks have recently experienced a decline, with Rigetti Computing (RGTI) down approximately 6%, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) down 7%, IonQ (IONQ) down 8%, and Quantum Computing (QUBT) down 9%, amid concerns over an AI bubble [1][6] - Analysts at Wedbush have initiated coverage on these stocks with "outperform" ratings, viewing quantum computing as a transformational technology with significant growth potential in the coming years [2][3] - By the end of the decade, quantum computing companies are expected to represent a larger share of total computing expenditure, despite currently being a small segment [3] Market Significance - Quantum computing stocks have benefited from the AI boom, with expectations that rising AI demand will increase computing needs [4] - Wedbush analysts have set a target price of $60 for IonQ, indicating nearly 30% upside, a $12 target for Quantum Computing suggesting a 16% gain, and $35 targets for Rigetti and D-Wave, implying they could add roughly half their value in the next 12 months [4] - Despite recent declines, D-Wave shares have nearly tripled in value this year, Rigetti has increased by close to 50%, and IonQ has added 10%, while Quantum Computing is down nearly 40% year-to-date [5]

Industry Overview - Quantum computing is transitioning from speculative research and development to commercial pathways, with significant market growth expected by 2025 and beyond [1][2] - The quantum computing market is projected to grow from approximately $3.52 billion in 2025 to $20.2 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.8% [1] - By 2035, the combined market for quantum computing, communication, and sensing could reach around $97 billion under current scenarios [1] Federal Investment and Support - The U.S. Department of Energy announced $625 million in funding to renew five National Quantum Information Science Research Centers, supporting advancements in quantum technology [4] - This funding is part of the National Quantum Initiative framework, aimed at fostering collaboration among national labs, universities, and industry to accelerate innovation [4][5] Monetary Policy Impact - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the target federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%, marking a shift towards a more neutral monetary policy, which is expected to support longer investment horizons in deep-tech development [6][7] - Easing financial conditions are anticipated to facilitate the transition of quantum hardware programs from R&D to early commercialization [7] Company-Specific Insights IonQ (IONQ) - IonQ achieved a significant milestone in October 2025 with two-qubit gate fidelities above 99.99%, enhancing its commercial viability [8][9] - The company is expected to see earnings growth of 66.2% in 2026, with revenue growth projected at 68.9% [10] - IonQ's average price target suggests a potential increase of 61.9% from its last closing price of $46.07 [10] Rigetti Computing (RGTI) - Rigetti plans to deploy a 150-qubit system by the end of 2026, following the delivery of a 100-qubit system in 2025, with a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.7% [13] - The company is expected to experience earnings growth of 75.9% in 2026, with revenue growth of 185.6% [14] - Rigetti's average price target indicates a potential increase of 65.8% from its last closing price of $23.53 [14] Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) - QUBT faces challenges with widening losses and minimal revenues, making it less attractive heading into 2026 [3][16] - The company is expected to report no earnings growth in 2026 and relies heavily on capital market activity for funding [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Rigetti Computing's stock price raises questions about whether it presents a buying opportunity or indicates a larger downturn for the company [1][2]. Company Performance - Rigetti's stock has seen a significant drop, finishing last week at less than $26, which is a 55% decline from its 52-week high of $58.15 [2]. - The company reported total sales of $7.5 million over the trailing 12 months, while operating expenses were just under $83 million during the same period, indicating a substantial loss [3]. Market Sentiment - Interest in Rigetti's stock has been waning, as evidenced by a decrease in trading volumes from over 100 million shares earlier in the year to often less than half of that level [6][8]. - Despite a 70% rise in stock price earlier this year, the speculative nature of Rigetti's business model and the associated risks have led to a cooling of investor excitement [5][6]. Industry Outlook - Quantum computing remains a promising but uncertain field, with questions about when it will become mainstream and whether Rigetti will be a leading player when that occurs [4]. - The market capitalization of Rigetti reached over $18 billion due to initial investor enthusiasm, but the recent pullback and declining trading volumes suggest a shift in market sentiment [7].