Core Insights - Quantum computing is gaining investor interest as a transformative technology, with practical applications emerging in various fields such as optimization and logistics, despite the industry's early stage and uncertain timelines [1] Group 1: Company Approaches - Rigetti Computing focuses on gate-based superconducting quantum processors, aiming for fault-tolerant quantum computing through improvements in chip design and architecture [2][5] - D-Wave Quantum adopts a commercially oriented strategy with quantum annealing systems, emphasizing immediate customer adoption and recurring revenue [2][7] Group 2: Price Performance - Rigetti's shares have increased by 47.2%, while D-Wave's stock has risen by 41.6% over the past six months, indicating strong investor interest in both companies [3][6] Group 3: Technology Strategy - Rigetti is committed to a chiplet-based architecture to enhance manufacturing efficiency and scalability, focusing on long-term fault tolerance [5][10] - D-Wave's annealing systems are designed for specific optimization tasks, allowing for practical applications and generating recurring revenue through cloud services [7][9] Group 4: Business Models - Rigetti's revenue primarily comes from government contracts and research collaborations, leading to unpredictable revenue streams [8] - D-Wave's business model is centered around quantum computing as a service, with a focus on subscriptions and long-term customer relationships, providing clearer visibility into revenue trends [9] Group 5: Growth Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Rigetti's 2026 sales to grow by 197.6%, with a loss per share of 18 cents [13] - D-Wave's 2026 sales are estimated to grow by 61.1%, with a projected loss per share of 19 cents [16] Group 6: Investment Profiles - Both Rigetti and D-Wave currently hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating that neither stock is seen as a value play at this time [18] - Rigetti has a Growth Score of C and a Momentum Score of F, while D-Wave has a Growth Score of F and a Momentum Score of B, reflecting differing investor sentiments [19] Group 7: Investor Considerations - Investors seeking near-term momentum may prefer D-Wave due to its clearer commercialization narrative, while those with a long-term perspective may favor Rigetti for its focus on technological execution [20]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing is a significant player in the quantum computing industry, focusing on the development of quantum integrated circuits and software, with the market projected to generate up to $1 trillion in global economic value by 2035 [1] Stock Performance - On January 22, 2026, B. Riley upgraded Rigetti's stock from Neutral to Buy, with the stock priced at $23.67, reflecting growing investor confidence in the company's potential [2] - Despite the upgrade, Rigetti's stock price has decreased by 5.28%, or $1.32, from its previous value, indicating market volatility [3] - The stock has fluctuated between $22.41 and $26.27 today, with a significant yearly volatility range of a high of $58.15 and a low of $6.86 [3] Market Capitalization and Trading Activity - Rigetti's market capitalization is approximately $7.81 billion, highlighting its substantial presence in the quantum computing industry [4][5] - The trading volume today is 47.47 million shares, suggesting active investor interest in the stock [4]

Core Insights - The first-mover advantage for pure-play quantum computing stocks may be more precarious than investors realize, with significant risks associated with this emerging technology [1] - Quantum computing stocks have seen dramatic gains, with IonQ up 670% and Rigetti Computing soaring over 6,200% over the trailing 12 months as of mid-October 2025, indicating the long-term potential of quantum computers [2] - Despite the excitement, quantum computing faces monumental headwinds that could disrupt the current rally for stocks like IonQ and Rigetti [3] Market Opportunity - Quantum computing is viewed as a $450 billion to $850 billion addressable opportunity by 2040, with The Quantum Insider projecting a global value of $1 trillion by 2035 [5] - The technology can be applied in various fields, including drug development, cybersecurity, AI algorithm enhancement, and weather modeling [6][7] - Significant future investments are anticipated, exemplified by JPMorgan Chase's $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative, which includes quantum computing [6] Adoption and Competition - Early-stage adoption of quantum computing is being observed among major companies like Amazon and Microsoft, which offer access to quantum computers through their cloud services [8] - However, quantum computing has not yet achieved broad-based commercialization, and current players like IonQ and Rigetti are still years away from solving practical problems more cost-effectively than classical computers [11] - The barrier to entry in quantum computing is minimal, posing a risk to early-stage innovators [12] Competitive Landscape - Companies like Alphabet and Microsoft are making significant advancements in quantum computing, with Alphabet's Willow quantum processing unit achieving a quantum algorithm performance approximately 13,000 times faster than the fastest supercomputer [14] - Alphabet has substantial financial resources, with $98.5 billion in cash and marketable securities, allowing aggressive investment in quantum computing initiatives [15] - Microsoft also has a strong financial position and has introduced its Majorana 1 QPU, which can scale to 1 million qubits [17] Sustainability Concerns - IonQ and Rigetti have not yet demonstrated sustainable operating models or sufficient cash flow to achieve recurring profitability, raising concerns about their long-term viability [18] - The competitive landscape suggests that larger companies could easily overshadow IonQ and Rigetti, making their current high valuations risky [18]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is confident in achieving a 1,000-plus qubit system by 2027, primarily due to its chiplet-based architecture, which is now delivering measurable results rather than being a theoretical concept [1][8] Company Progress - The company is advancing from 9-qubit chiplets to 36-qubit chiplets, which serve as the foundational building block for larger systems, allowing for scaling qubit counts while mitigating yield and complexity risks associated with monolithic chips [2][8] - Current 36-qubit chiplet systems exhibit nearly 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity, which bolsters management's confidence in expanding to 150 qubits by 2026 and beyond [2][8] Modularity and Execution Risk - Rigetti is utilizing repeatable, modular units that can be manufactured, tested, and improved independently, which lowers execution risk and maintains flexibility as the company aims to enhance fidelity [3] - The approach to reaching 1,000 qubits is characterized as a series of controlled steps rather than a speculative leap, making the timeline appear increasingly achievable [3] Industry Peers Updates - IonQ (IONQ) has expanded its collaboration with the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information to deploy a next-generation 100-qubit IonQ Tempo quantum system, integrating it into South Korea's National Quantum Computing Center of Excellence [4][5] - D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) has achieved a significant milestone with scalable on-chip cryogenic control for gate-model quantum computers, addressing major barriers to large-scale quantum systems and enhancing the practicality of gate-model architectures [6] Price Performance and Valuation - Rigetti's shares have increased by 59.3% over the last six months, contrasting with a 13.8% decline in the industry [7] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 22.74, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 earnings indicates a significant 88.9% decline from the previous year [11]

Industry Overview - The quantum computing market is projected to grow from $3.52 billion in 2025 to $20.20 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 41.8% [1] - Key drivers of this growth include advancements in hardware, increased cloud-based accessibility, and rising investments from both private and public sectors [1][2] Government Initiatives - Government agencies are crucial in driving R&D funding and industry collaboration through initiatives like the US National Quantum Initiative Act and the EU Quantum Flagship Program [2] Key Players - Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) are identified as significant players in the quantum computing market [2] Technological Challenges - The quantum computing market faces technological hurdles such as qubit interconnection, decoherence, and external noise, which limit applications and scalability [3] Company Performance: QUBT - QUBT reported third-quarter revenues of $384,000, driven by R&D contracts and initial cloud access revenues [8] - The company raised $500 million in gross proceeds during the third quarter and an additional $750 million post-quarter, ending with $352 million in cash and cash equivalents [10] - QUBT's manufacturing strategy involves phased production through Fab 1 and Fab 2, aimed at scaling operations and improving margins [7] Company Performance: RGTI - Rigetti reported total revenues of $1.9 million in the third quarter, supported by government contracts and cloud-based services [12] - The company ended the quarter with $446.9 million in cash and no debt, indicating a strong financial position [13] - Rigetti's Fab-1 facility allows for end-to-end control over manufacturing, enhancing its ability to innovate and capture market opportunities [11] Financial Projections - For 2025, QUBT's loss per share is projected to be 15 cents, an improvement from a loss of 73 cents per share the previous year [14] - RGTI's loss per share is projected to be 68 cents, compared to a loss of 36 cents the prior year [17] Price Targets - The average price target for QUBT is $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 39.6% from the last closing price [20] - Rigetti's average price target is $37.56, suggesting a 52.1% upside from the last close [22] Conclusion - QUBT's integrated manufacturing strategy and early commercial traction position it well for growth in the quantum computing market [24] - Rigetti's full-stack approach and strong government contracts highlight its potential for innovation and long-term value [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing has secured an $8.4 million purchase order to deliver a 108-qubit quantum computer to the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) in India, highlighting the increasing demand for on-premises quantum computing systems as governments prioritize quantum technology [1][3]. Company Overview - Rigetti Computing is a pioneer in full-stack quantum computing, utilizing superconducting qubits, which are recognized for their scalability and fast gate speeds, achieving 50-70 nanoseconds, significantly faster than other modalities [5]. - The company operates quantum computers through its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services (QCS) platform, providing high-performance integration with public and private clouds for practical quantum computing [7]. - Rigetti's systems range from 9-qubit to 180-qubit quantum computing systems, designed to support national laboratories and quantum computing centers [6]. Partnership and Development - The order from C-DAC builds on an existing partnership, with a memorandum of understanding signed in September 2025 to co-develop hybrid quantum computing systems for government laboratories and academic research [4]. - Rigetti's proprietary chiplet-based architecture is central to its strategy for scaling to high qubit count systems necessary for error correction and fault-tolerant quantum computing [2]. C-DAC Overview - The Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) is a premier R&D institution under the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology in India, focusing on enhancing national technological capabilities and responding to market needs in information technology [9][10]. - C-DAC is engaged in significant projects in quantum technologies, including the development of quantum accelerators and a national quantum computing reference facility [12].

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing's stock experienced significant gains in 2025, rising 45.2%, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite [1] Stock Performance - Despite a volatile trading environment, Rigetti's stock closed 2025 with substantial gains, significantly exceeding the broader market indices [1] - The stock initially faced a sell-off due to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's comments on quantum computing commercialization but rebounded later in the year [2] Key Partnerships and Contracts - A major valuation boost occurred in September 2025 when Rigetti signed a three-year contract worth $5.8 million with the Air Force Research Laboratory to develop quantum networking technologies in collaboration with QphoX [4] - Another surge in stock price followed the announcement of a collaboration with Nvidia to support the NVQLink platform, integrating AI supercomputers with quantum technology [5] Recent Trends and Analyst Coverage - Rigetti's stock continued to rise in early 2026, gaining 15.7%, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite [6] - Rosenblatt initiated coverage on Rigetti with a buy rating and set a one-year price target of $40 per share, indicating a potential upside of 56% based on the company's strengths in qubit scaling and partnerships [7]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing is a key player in the quantum computing sector, offering various models including the Ankaa-3 and Cepheus-1-36Q systems, with a focus on modular quantum computing [1][2] - The global quantum computing market is projected to grow from $3.52 billion in 2022 to $20.2 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.8% [4] - Rigetti's revenue for Q3 2025 was reported at $1.9 million, down nearly 19% year-over-year, indicating challenges in revenue generation despite the potential for future growth [8][9] Company Overview - Rigetti Computing, headquartered in Berkeley, California, specializes in superconducting quantum integrated circuits and the necessary supercooling systems for quantum operations [2] - The company is recognized for its modular approach to quantum computing, which allows for scalability and enhanced performance [10] - Rigetti's upcoming Cepheus-1-108Q system is expected to be generally available by the end of Q1 2026, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation [7] Market Dynamics - The demand for quantum computing is increasing across various industries, including biopharma and finance, as traditional computing systems reach their limits [5][6] - Major tech companies like Amazon, IBM, and Microsoft are launching quantum cloud platforms, which are anticipated to significantly influence market development [5] Analyst Insights - Analyst John McPeake projects a potential upside of over 50% for Rigetti and Quantum Computing stocks over the next 12 months, indicating strong investor interest [3] - McPeake forecasts a top-line CAGR of 83% for Rigetti through 2030, with a revenue breakdown expected to shift significantly towards quantum hardware and services [11][12] - Rigetti's stock is currently rated as a Buy with a price target of $40, suggesting a 56% upside potential from its current price of $25.62 [12] Competitive Landscape - Quantum Computing, or QCi, is another notable company in the sector, focusing on quantum photonics technology and planning to acquire Luminar Technologies to enhance its capabilities [13][16] - QCi has a strong financial position with $1.6 billion in cash and no debt, which supports its growth initiatives in quantum computing [18] - QCi's stock is also rated as a Moderate Buy, with a price target of $22, indicating a potential 73% gain over the next year [19]

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks have surged significantly, with some companies experiencing gains of up to 6,200% in 2025, highlighting both excitement and inherent risks in next-big-thing technology investments [2][10] - The potential economic value of quantum computing is estimated to be between $450 billion and $1 trillion by 2040 and 2035 respectively, indicating a substantial market opportunity for investors [6] - Major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan Chase, are recognizing quantum computing as a critical area for investment, further driving interest in the sector [7] Company Performance - Companies like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. have shown high double-digit or triple-digit annual sales growth potential, but are expected to continue losing money for the foreseeable future [14] - In 2025, these companies collectively raised $4.15 billion through various share offerings, indicating a reliance on external capital to fund operations and development [15][17] - The financial performance of these companies is contrasted with larger tech firms, which have more robust financial resources and established operating segments [19] Market Dynamics - Quantum computing technology is positioned to enhance AI algorithms and optimize drug development processes, showcasing its real-world applications [4][5] - The market for quantum computing is still in its infancy, with analysts suggesting it will take several years for these technologies to become commercially viable compared to classical computing [12] - The competitive landscape includes significant players like Microsoft and Alphabet, which have the financial strength to invest in quantum technologies, posing challenges for smaller pure-play companies [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing is experiencing significant stock price growth, with a 184% increase over the past year, driven by technological advancements, a $5.8 million research contract with the U.S. Air Force, and a partnership with Nvidia [1][2]. Company Performance - Rigetti's current market capitalization is approximately $8.4 billion, with a valuation of about 409 times this year's expected sales [2]. - The company's sales performance has been declining, with Q3 sales at roughly $1.95 million, down from $2.38 million in the same quarter the previous year. Total sales for the first three quarters of last year were $5.22 million, down from $8.52 million in the same period in 2024 [3][4]. Market Position and Comparisons - As a young company in the quantum computing sector, Rigetti's recent sales decline may not be indicative of its long-term potential, as some customers may be waiting for more advanced systems [4]. - There are potentially better investment opportunities in the quantum computing space, such as D-Wave Quantum, which may offer better near-term commercialization prospects, and Alphabet, which has a diversified tech portfolio with less risk [5][6].