Core Viewpoint - Shopify Inc. is positioned as a leading e-commerce platform with a strong potential for growth, as indicated by analysts' price targets and earnings projections [1][5]. Group 1: Price Target and Stock Performance - Thanos Moschopoulos from BMO Capital has set a price target of $150 for Shopify, suggesting a potential increase of 33.87% from its current price of $112.05 [1][5]. - Shopify's current stock price of $112.05 reflects a slight increase of 0.73% from the previous trading session, with a trading range today between $109.78 and $115.04 [4]. Group 2: Earnings and Revenue Projections - Shopify is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.50 per share for the quarter ending December 2025, representing a 13.6% increase from the previous year [2][5]. - The projected revenue for the same quarter is $3.58 billion, marking a 27.3% increase from the previous year [2][5]. Group 3: Analyst Confidence - The stability in earnings projections, with no revisions over the past 30 days, indicates analysts' confidence in their forecasts, which can influence investor behavior and stock price performance [3].

Core Viewpoint - Shopify's stock has faced significant pressure ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings release, declining approximately 31% in the past month due to valuation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty [1] Group 1: Business Performance - Despite the stock selloff, Shopify's underlying business remains strong, with a 32% growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) and revenue in the third quarter, alongside a free cash flow margin of 18% [2] - Revenue growth has been consistent throughout the year, with increases of 27% in Q1, 31% in Q2, and 32% in Q3, while free cash flow margins improved from 15% in Q1 to 18% in Q3 [3] Group 2: Valuation and Technical Indicators - The recent decline in Shopify's stock has alleviated some valuation concerns, with the stock's 14-day Relative Strength Index at 22.6, indicating potential oversold conditions [4] - Options traders anticipate a post-earnings move of about 11.1%, higher than the average move of 8.6% observed in the past four quarters [5] Group 3: Q4 Outlook - Shopify is expected to deliver strong quarterly results, but growth rates may moderate due to tougher year-over-year comparisons, with management guiding for Q4 revenue growth in the mid-to-high 20% range [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that high uncertainty has significantly impacted software valuation multiples, which have declined by approximately 33% since October 2025 [2] Group 1: Software Valuation - The average software valuation multiple has returned to around 4.4 times enterprise value/sales, reflecting levels seen during previous periods of high uncertainty in the public cloud sector [3] - Investors are underestimating the ability of existing vendors to benefit from AI adoption [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that pessimistic views on generative AI have led to a lack of trust in the ability of existing software vendors to participate in this innovation cycle [4] - Morgan Stanley identifies Microsoft, ServiceNow, Salesforce, Atlassian, Snowflake, Cloudflare, Shopify, and Palo Alto Networks as attractive investment opportunities due to their strong product cycles, improved financial metrics, and discounted valuations [4] - Microsoft is noted as a key player in significant innovation cycles, while the valuation of ServiceNow is described as "very attractive" [4] - Salesforce's AI-related annual recurring revenue has increased by 114% year-over-year [4] - Shopify is viewed as highly capable of capturing a larger share of the expanding online commerce market [4] Group 3: Long-term Opportunities - Generative AI represents a significant long-term opportunity, with an estimated potential to add approximately $400 billion to the broader enterprise software total addressable market by 2028 [5] - The key issue is not whether software will ultimately monetize in this innovation cycle, but rather which companies will participate [6]

Earnings Reports - A significant week for earnings with major companies such as Robinhood Markets, Coinbase, Cisco Systems, Applovin, Shopify, Arista Networks, Cloudflare, Spotify, Airbnb, and McDonald's scheduled to report [1] Implied Volatility - Implied volatility tends to be high before earnings reports due to market uncertainty, leading to increased demand for options [2] - After earnings announcements, implied volatility typically decreases to normal levels [3] Expected Price Movements - The expected price range for stocks can be estimated by adding the prices of at-the-money put and call options from the option chain [3] Daily Earnings Expectations - Tuesday: HOOD (11.7%), F (6.5%), KO (2.9%), NET (13.4%), SPOT (10.4%), GILD (5.5%) [4] - Wednesday: CSCO (5.5%), VRT (10.5%), APP (15.5%), SHOP (12.8%), MCD (3.3%) [5] - Thursday: COIN (11.1%), ANET (10.7%), ABNB (8.6%), AEM (6.9%) [5] Trading Strategies - Traders can utilize expected moves to structure trades, with bearish traders selling bear call spreads and bullish traders selling bull put spreads or looking at naked puts [6] - Neutral traders may consider iron condors, ideally keeping short strikes outside the expected range [6] Risk Management - It is advisable to use risk-defined strategies and maintain small position sizes when trading options over earnings [7] - A full loss from a trade should ideally not impact the portfolio by more than 1-3% [7] High Implied Volatility Stocks - Barchart's Stock Screener can identify stocks with high implied volatility, using filters such as total call volume greater than 5,000, market cap greater than 40 billion, and IV Rank greater than 50% [8]

Economic Data - The People's Bank of China will release January CPI and PPI on February 11 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will publish the monthly report on January commodity residential sales price index on February 13 [1] - Financial data including January social financing and new RMB loans will also be released next week [1] - In the US, December retail sales month-on-month will be announced on February 10, followed by January unemployment rate and non-farm employment data on February 11 [1] Earnings Reports - The US earnings season continues with several notable companies reporting next week, including BP, Barclays, Marriott, Coca-Cola, and AstraZeneca on February 10 [2] - Other companies such as NetEase, Youdao, and Total will report on February 11, while TripAdvisor and Hyatt will report on February 12 [2] - In Hong Kong, SMIC will report earnings on February 10, followed by Budweiser APAC and NetEase Cloud Music on February 11 [2] New Stock Issuance - One new stock, Tongbao Optoelectronics, will be available for subscription on February 9, with Ai De Technology listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange on February 10 [2] - Several new stocks will list in Hong Kong, including Lanke Technology on February 9 and Aixin Yuanzhi on February 10 [2] Stock Unlocking - A total of 33 restricted stocks will be unlocked next week, with a total market value exceeding 36 billion yuan, led by Hunan YN with 24.096 billion yuan [3][10] Central Bank Operations - The central bank will have 4.055 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [3][10] Government Bonds - The Ministry of Finance will issue the first phase of RMB government bonds in Hong Kong on February 11, with a scale of 14 billion yuan [13]

Core Insights - Analysts project Shopify (SHOP) will report quarterly earnings of $0.50 per share, reflecting a 13.6% year-over-year increase, with revenues expected to reach $3.58 billion, a 27.3% increase from the same quarter last year [1] Revenue Estimates - 'Revenues- Merchant solutions' are estimated to be $2.80 billion, indicating a 30.5% increase from the prior-year quarter [4] - 'Revenues- Subscription solutions' are projected to reach $777.54 million, reflecting a 16.8% increase from the same quarter last year [4] Gross Merchandise Volume and Recurring Revenue - Analysts estimate 'Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV)' will be $119.96 billion, compared to $94.46 billion a year ago [5] - The estimated 'Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)' is $199.05 million, up from $178.00 million in the same quarter last year [5] Gross Profit Estimates - 'Gross Profit- Merchant solutions' is forecasted at $1.03 billion, compared to $820.00 million from the previous year [6] - 'Gross Profit- Subscription solutions' is expected to reach $633.57 million, up from $532.00 million in the same quarter last year [6] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Shopify shares have decreased by 33.9%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has only decreased by 1.5% [6] - Currently, Shopify holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [6]

Group 1 - Major earnings reports are scheduled for next Tuesday from AstraZeneca PLC, Coca-Cola Company, and S&P Global Inc., with a focus on healthcare and technology sectors [1] - Wednesday will feature earnings from McDonald's Corporation, T-Mobile US Inc., and Shopify Inc. pre-market, followed by Cisco Systems Inc. after market close [1] - The week will conclude on Friday with significant energy reports from Enbridge Inc and TC Energy Corporation [1]

Core Insights - By 2026, artificial intelligence (AI) has transformed from a tech trend to a core force reshaping the cross-border e-commerce industry, driven by platforms like Amazon, TikTok, and Shopify [1][3] - The introduction of "AI + cross-border e-commerce" as a new model has marked the beginning of a new phase in the industry, emphasizing the importance of intelligent technology [1] Group 1: Platform Innovations - Major platforms have fully embraced AI, redefining competition rules; Amazon highlighted AI as the "next-generation cross-border chain" at the 2025 summit, integrating conversational AI shopping assistant Rufus into the search box, changing the shopping path from "keyword search" to "demand description" [3] - Shopify enhanced its AI assistant Sidekick with around 150 updates in 2025, enabling it to understand business issues deeply and generate actionable plans, significantly shortening the path from analysis to action [3] - TikTok Shop introduced an AIGC short video tool, allowing sellers to automatically generate and publish promotional videos at a low cost, reducing the barriers to content creation and customer acquisition [3] Group 2: Seller Adaptation - Leading sellers have built competitive barriers through comprehensive AI integration; however, many small and medium-sized sellers face high costs and risks in developing their own AI systems, necessitating quick-deployment AI solutions [5] - Yicang Technology's Maido AI focuses on automating advertising, inventory, and competitor monitoring, helping sellers reduce ACOS by 15%-30% through its "No Word Intelligent Agent" and providing dynamic collaboration between inventory and traffic [5] - Maido AI's "Operational Eye" monitors ASINs for price changes and negative reviews, offering real-time alerts to help sellers respond effectively [5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - AI has significantly altered shopping habits, with Salesforce reporting that AI and agent-recommended traffic drove 21% of global online orders during the 2025 holiday season, leading consumers to rely on AI as a "shopping advisor" [7] - Sellers are required to provide higher quality product information and smarter shopping experiences to meet consumer expectations; Maido AI's "Image and Text Assistant" helps sellers generate high-conversion visual materials effortlessly [7] - Maido AI's capabilities in analyzing user needs and competitive landscapes assist sellers in creating products and listings that align with market expectations, positioning them advantageously in the AI-driven e-commerce ecosystem [7] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The widespread adoption of AI brings challenges such as content homogenization, fake reviews, and organizational changes due to job displacement; Maido AI aims to empower sellers with data-driven insights rather than merely replacing roles [9] - The 2026 cross-border e-commerce landscape sees platforms like Amazon, TikTok, and Shopify rewriting the rules through AI, while specialized solutions like Maido AI become crucial for sellers to adapt and build new competitive advantages [9]

Core Viewpoint - The software industry is experiencing significant stock declines due to fears that AI will disrupt traditional software, although some industry leaders believe this concern is exaggerated [1][2][3]. Group 1: Software Industry Overview - Software stocks have dropped sharply, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF down 21% year-to-date, primarily in the last week [2]. - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argues that AI will enhance rather than replace existing software, suggesting that the software industry is not in decline [3]. Group 2: Company Analysis Microsoft - Microsoft has a strong presence in enterprise software and its Azure cloud infrastructure is growing rapidly, with a 39% revenue increase in the latest quarter [5]. - Despite its financial strength, Microsoft stock has fallen 25% from its peak in the last three months due to concerns over rising capital expenditures for AI initiatives [6][8]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings discount compared to the S&P 500, presenting a potential buying opportunity [8]. Shopify - Shopify has seen a 38% decline from its peak at the end of October, but it remains a leader in e-commerce software [9]. - The company reported a 32% revenue increase to $2.8 billion in its most recent quarter, indicating strong growth potential [12]. - Shopify is integrating AI into its platform, which may help it maintain its competitive edge [10]. Figma - Figma's stock has dropped about 85% from its peak, despite being a leader in design software and having a history of GAAP profitability [13][15]. - The company is actively incorporating AI into its product offerings, which may enhance its market position [15]. - Figma's skills are in high demand, indicating a competitive advantage in the job market [15].

Core Viewpoint - AI application software stocks experienced a significant decline following the announcement of Google's "Project Genie," which allows users to create and interact with virtual worlds [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Shopify (SHOP.US), Cloudflare (NET.US), and ServiceNow (NOW.US) all fell over 7% [1] - SAP SE (SAP.US) and Salesforce (CRM.US) dropped more than 5% [1] - Applovin (APP.US) decreased by over 3% [1] Group 2: Google's Announcement - Google introduced "Project Genie," a product that supports the creation and interaction of virtual worlds [1] - The company stated that even in its early version, trusted testers can create diverse and engaging virtual worlds and experiences [1] - Google has launched a prototype version of "Project Genie" for AI Ultra paid subscribers in the U.S. [1]