Shopify , projected quarterly revenue above market estimates on Wednesday, as the e-commerce platform expects consumer spending to be resilient against a backdrop of U.S. tariffs and rising prices. ...

Registrant's Telephone Number, Including Area Code: (613) 241-2828 x 1045 ______________________________________________ SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 ___________________________ Form 10-K ___________________________ ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from ___________ ...

Shopify's Standout 2025: The Launchpad for a New Era of Commerce in 2026 $11.6B in revenue, $2B in free cash flow and the launch of a $2B share repurchase program Internet, Everywhere - February 11, 2026 - Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ, TSX: SHOP) announced today financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. Shopify achieved Q4 revenue growth of 31% and a 19% free cash flow margin, marking ten consecutive quarters of double-digit free cash flow margins. "2025 was Shopify at full throttle - driv ...

Core Insights - Shopify reported a Q4 revenue growth of 31% year-over-year and a free cash flow margin of 19%, marking ten consecutive quarters of double-digit free cash flow margins [1][2] - For the full year 2025, Shopify achieved a revenue growth of 30%, which is 4 percentage points higher than 2024, and a free cash flow margin of 17% [2][3] - The company is focusing on AI commerce and expects 2026 to be a year of building and scaling for its merchants [2] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 GMV reached $123.841 billion, up from $94.460 billion in Q4 2024, representing a growth of 31% [3][4] - Q4 2025 revenue was $3.672 billion, compared to $2.812 billion in Q4 2024, also reflecting a 31% increase [3][4] - Gross profit for Q4 2025 was $1.693 billion, up from $1.352 billion in Q4 2024, indicating a growth of 25% [3][4] - Operating income for Q4 2025 was $631 million, compared to $465 million in Q4 2024, showing a growth of 36% [3][4] Growth Drivers - International revenue grew by 36% year-over-year, while offline revenue increased by 27% [5] - B2B GMV saw a significant growth of 96%, and Gross Payments Volume grew by 37% [5] - Shop Pay GMV experienced a growth of 62% [5] 2026 Outlook - For Q1 2026, Shopify expects revenue growth to be in the low-thirties percentage range year-over-year, similar to Q4 2025 [8] - Gross profit dollars are anticipated to grow at a high-twenties percentage rate year-over-year [8] - Free cash flow margin is expected to be in the low-to-mid teens, slightly below Q1 of 2025 [8] Share Repurchase Program - Shopify's Board of Directors has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $2 billion, which will commence on February 17, 2026 [9][28] - The program aims to execute repurchases through various means, including open-market purchases and privately negotiated transactions [9][28]

Employment and Economic Outlook - The employment report is anticipated to show an increase in U.S. job growth despite a sluggish labor market, influenced by tariff uncertainty and tighter immigration enforcement [1][8] - Retail sales have stalled unexpectedly, raising the probability of an interest-rate reduction in April to 35.5% from 32.2% [1][8] - Markets are pricing in the first interest rate cut to occur in June, coinciding with the expected Senate approval of President Trump's Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh [2][8] Corporate Earnings and Market Reactions - Cloudflare's shares surged by 14% following a better-than-expected forecast for annual and first-quarter sales [5][8] - Robinhood's shares fell by 7.2% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue below Wall Street expectations [6][8] - Lyft's shares dropped 17% due to a quarterly profit forecast and annual ride volumes that did not meet Wall Street expectations [9][8] Legislative and Regulatory Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives rejected a Republican bid to block challenges to Trump's tariffs, potentially allowing Democrats to reverse tariffs imposed on Canada [7][8] - A Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the tariffs is expected in the coming months [7][9]

Economic Indicators - Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +68,000 in January, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4% [1] - Average hourly earnings are projected to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.7% year-over-year in January [1] - Initial weekly unemployment claims are anticipated to decrease by -7,000 to 224,000 [1] - Existing home sales in January are expected to decline by -4.3% month-over-month to 4.16 million [1] - January CPI is expected to rise by +2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI also expected to increase by +2.5% year-over-year [1] Retail Sales and Employment Costs - US December retail sales were unchanged month-over-month, falling short of expectations of +0.4% [2] - The employment cost index for Q4 rose by +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, which is the smallest increase in 4.5 years and below the expected +0.8% [2] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes experienced mixed trading, with the Dow Jones reaching a new all-time high while the S&P 500 closed down -0.33% and the Nasdaq down -0.56% [6][5] - The broader market initially found support from weaker-than-expected retail sales and employment cost index reports, which lowered bond yields [5] Earnings Season Insights - Over half of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 78% beating expectations [7] - S&P earnings growth is expected to rise by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [7] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, Q4 earnings are projected to increase by +4.6% [7] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The markets are pricing in a 23% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting [8] - The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3.5-week low of 4.13%, supported by weaker-than-expected economic reports [9] Sector Performance - AI-infrastructure stocks faced pressure, with Western Digital down more than -7% and other tech stocks also declining [12] - Wealth-management stocks dropped significantly, with Raymond James Financial down more than -8% due to concerns over AI disruption [13] - Homebuilding stocks rose after the drop in mortgage rates, with Toll Brothers up more than +6% [14] Company-Specific Developments - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, below the consensus of 49 cents, leading to a decline of more than -14% [15] - Incyte forecasted dull-year total net product revenue of $4.77 billion to $4.94 billion, causing a drop of more than -8% [16] - Spotify reported a record 38 million monthly active users in Q4, leading to a rise of more than +17% [17]

Core Viewpoint - Shopify is experiencing significant stock movement ahead of its Q4 earnings report, with analysts projecting a year-over-year earnings growth of over 20% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Shopify shares have increased notably as the company approaches its Q4 earnings on February 11 [1] - Despite the recent surge, Shopify stock is still down approximately 25% from its December high [2] - Options traders are anticipating a 9.68% price movement in either direction post-earnings, with potential stock prices ranging from $114 to $139 [5] Group 2: Earnings Expectations and Volatility - Analysts expect Shopify to report earnings of $0.41 per share for Q4, reflecting a growth of over 20% year-over-year [1] - The elevated volatility in stock prices is attributed to uncertainty regarding Shopify's shift towards AI-enabled shopping through partnerships with Google and OpenAI [5][6] Group 3: Analyst Recommendations and Future Outlook - MoffettNathanson analysts recommend buying Shopify shares, citing that they are trading at a rare discount following a downturn in software stocks [7] - The firm highlights Shopify's aggressive adoption of AI, which is reportedly driving more traffic to its merchants compared to competitors like Amazon and eBay [7] - MoffettNathanson has upgraded Shopify to "Buy" with a price target of $150, indicating a potential upside of 17% [8]

A MoffettNathanson analyst thinks AI could be a benefit to Shopify's business, rather than a hinderance. ...

JP Morgan analyst Reginald L. Smith reiterated the Overweight rating on the stock, with a price forecast of $180.Smith said key watch items include first-quarter volume, profit, cash-flow guidance, and commentary on growth and expenses.The analyst also flagged agentic commerce adoption and European Shop Pay growth as important areas to monitor.Smith said e-commerce payment volumes slowed due to tough comparisons, with Street estimates implying further GMV and GPV deceleration.JP Morgan projects Shopify to p ...

Shopify stock price has suffered a sharp reversal this year, moving from a high of $182 in October last year to the current $118. This article explores what to expect as the company prepares to publis... ...