Trip.com (TCOM) could be a solid choice for investors given the company's remarkably improving earnings outlook. While the stock has been a strong performer lately, this trend might continue since analysts are still raising their earnings estimates for the company.Analysts' growing optimism on the earnings prospects of this travel services company is driving estimates higher, which should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings es ...

作者/庆福 编辑/嘉嘉 日前，携程发布2023年第四季度及全年未经审计的财务业绩：2023年携程全年净营业收入达到445亿元，同比增长122%。携程集团联合创始人、董事局主席梁建章表示：有信心在2023年成功的基础上更上一层楼，进一步探索未来的机遇。 在中国互联网行业普遍低迷的大背景下，携程三位数的高速增长大放异彩，但携程也存在依靠“搭售”、“大数据杀熟”等不道德手段追求业绩的情况，这背后反映出携程急功近利，不是一个合格的行业领导者的现实。 【1】不稳的行业老大，携程的焦虑 据易观数据显示：2023年1月，携程旗下携程旅行App、去哪网月活规模分别为5989.03万、3486.61万，远超第三名飞猪旅行App1824.36万的月活规模。 但携程看似稳固的江湖地位却面临抖音、美团“新势力”的冲击，而凭借流量优势，新势力在流量入口、供应商资源等方面对携程构成了潜在威胁。 2023年上半年，抖音在酒旅领域重点布局，上线日历房功能、将酒旅升级为一级部门和到店业务平行。这代表着抖音为酒旅商家在抖音平台上入驻经营、订单转化提供了充足的保障。而这些措施效果显著：2022年抖音平台酒旅行业支付GM ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2023, Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB 10.3 billion, representing a 105% year-over-year increase and a 25% decrease quarter-over-quarter, but still 24% higher than the 2019 level [27] - For the full year of 2023, net revenue reached RMB 44.5 billion, marking a 122% increase year-over-year and a 25% increase from 2019 [27] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was RMB 2.9 billion, reflecting a growth of 899% year-over-year and a 117% increase compared to 2019, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28% [32] - For the full year of 2023, adjusted EBITDA was RMB 14 billion, representing a growth of 550% year-over-year and an increase of 78% compared to 2019, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31% [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Accommodation reservation revenue for Q4 reached RMB 3.9 billion, a 131% increase year-over-year and a 32% growth compared to 2019 [27] - Transportation ticketing revenue for Q4 was RMB 4.1 billion, representing an 86% increase year-over-year and an 18% growth compared to 2019 [28] - Package tour revenue for Q4 was RMB 704 million, a 329% increase year-over-year, recovering to 88% of the 2019 level [29] - Corporate travel revenue for Q4 was RMB 634 million, a 129% increase year-over-year, which is 70% higher than the 2019 level [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, the China domestic market saw hotel bookings grow over 130% year-over-year and more than 60% compared to 2019 [9] - Outbound air ticket and hotel bookings recovered to more than 80% of pre-pandemic levels, surpassing the market overall recovery rate of 60% [12] - In the APAC region, total GMV of overseas OTA brands grew by more than 70% year-over-year and increased by over 100% compared to 2019 [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become a leading player in the Asian market and globally within three to five years, focusing on globalization and enhancing product offerings [7][14] - The integration of AI technology, such as the TripGenie assistant, is a key part of the digital strategy to improve user experience and operational efficiency [18] - The company is committed to sustainability and corporate responsibility, focusing on community-friendly, environmental-friendly, and family-friendly initiatives [20][22] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the travel market, driven by strong consumer demand and the easing of travel restrictions [35] - The company anticipates stronger year-over-year growth in the first half of Q1 2024, followed by a softer second half due to seasonal factors [42] - The inbound travel market in China is seen as an untapped opportunity, with significant potential for growth as visa policies become more favorable [15][16] Other Important Information - The company has initiated a stock buyback program and approved a capital return program for 2024, reflecting confidence in long-term value [6][34] - The balance of cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2023, was RMB 77 billion, or USD 10.9 billion [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on Trip.com's globalization strategy and achievements? - Management highlighted that the digital strategy focuses on building global products and services, leveraging strong supply chains and technology to enhance user experience [36][38] Question: How has the business performed during the Chinese New Year? - Management noted that domestic hotel and air reservations increased by more than 60% and 50% year-over-year, respectively, with outbound reservations surpassing 2019 levels [40][42] Question: What factors might contribute to the slow recovery of outbound travel? - Management expressed confidence in the recovery, citing strong demand and improving market supply conditions, with expectations for significant growth in outbound travel [44][46] Question: What are the key competitive advantages of Trip.com in international markets? - Management emphasized the user-friendly mobile app, AI-driven personalized recommendations, and strong customer service as key competitive advantages [56][58]

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Trip.com (TCOM) reports results for the quarter ended December 2023. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on February 21, 2024, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than ex ...

Trip.com (TCOM) closed the last trading session at $39.65, gaining 8.5% over the past four weeks, but there could be plenty of upside left in the stock if short-term price targets set by Wall Street analysts are any guide. The mean price target of $49.67 indicates a 25.3% upside potential.The mean estimate comprises 15 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $4.39. While the lowest estimate of $43 indicates an 8.5% increase from the current price level, the most optimistic analyst expects the ...

Group 1 - Trip.com Group Limited Sponsored ADR (TCOM) has reached a significant support level, indicating a potential investment opportunity from a technical perspective [1] - TCOM's 50-day simple moving average has recently broken above its 200-day moving average, forming a "golden cross," which is a bullish signal [1] - A golden cross consists of three stages: a downtrend that bottoms out, a crossover of the short-term moving average above the long-term moving average, and continued upward momentum [1] Group 2 - TCOM has experienced a 6% rally over the past four weeks, and it currently holds a 1 (Strong Buy) rating on the Zacks Rank, suggesting a potential breakout [2] - The positive earnings outlook for TCOM supports the bullish case, with no earnings estimates decreasing in the past two months and one revision higher [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TCOM has increased, further indicating potential gains for investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited will announce its fourth quarter and full year results for 2023 on February 21, 2024, after market close [1] Group 1: Financial Announcement - The results announcement will be followed by a conference call hosted by the management team at 7:00 PM U.S. Eastern Time on the same day [1] - The conference call will be available via live webcast and will be archived for twelve months [1] Group 2: Registration and Participation - Participants must pre-register to join the conference call, receiving details including dial-in numbers and a unique access PIN upon registration [2] Group 3: Company Overview - Trip.com Group Limited is a leading global one-stop travel platform, offering a comprehensive suite of travel products and services [3] - The company operates under various brands, including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, and aims to provide travelers with an inspiring and cost-effective booking experience [3]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com (TCOM) is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its improving earnings outlook and analysts' increasing earnings estimates [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - Current-quarter earnings estimate is $0.34 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of +209.09% [3]. - For the full year, the expected earnings are $2.36 per share, indicating a remarkable year-over-year change of +713.79% [4]. - Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trip.com has risen by 13.33% for the current quarter and 8.51% for the full year, with no negative revisions reported [3][4]. Zacks Rank - Trip.com has achieved a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong potential for outperformance based on favorable earnings estimate revisions [5]. - Research indicates that stocks with Zacks Rank 1 and 2 significantly outperform the S&P 500 [5]. Stock Performance - Trip.com shares have increased by 5.5% over the past four weeks, suggesting positive investor sentiment driven by the company's earnings growth prospects [6].

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com (TCOM) shares have increased by 4.1% recently, with a mean price target of $49.73 suggesting a potential upside of 32.7% from the current price of $37.49 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Consensus - The mean estimate consists of 15 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $4.48, indicating a relatively high agreement among analysts [1] - The lowest estimate of $43 indicates a 14.7% increase, while the highest estimate suggests a 49.4% surge to $56 [1] - Analysts' price targets can often mislead investors, as they may set overly optimistic targets due to business incentives [3][4] Earnings Estimates and Market Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about TCOM's earnings prospects, with a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions indicating potential stock upside [5] - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for TCOM has increased by 8.5%, with no negative revisions reported [5] - TCOM holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [5]

Economic Outlook - Investor confidence in China has declined, but there is a belief that the investing landscape will improve in the future [1] - The current equity environment in China remains challenging, yet opportunities persist for traders who can identify key price levels [1] Company Analysis: NetEase (NTES) - A recent Black Swan event negatively impacted NetEase's stock, but traders found opportunities to profit from long-dated calls, achieving a 30% intraday gain [1] - The trading environment for NetEase requires a focus on price action due to unpredictable macro policies [1][4] Company Analysis: Trip.com (TCOM) - Trip.com is the leading online travel agency in China, with over 1.4 million hotels listed, significantly ahead of competitors like Meituan and Fliggy [5] - The company reported 13.74 billion Yuan in revenue with a 29% operating margin, exceeding expectations in a tough spending environment [6] - Trip.com's international travel business has recovered approximately 80% of pre-pandemic revenue, although visa wait times and geopolitical factors remain challenges [6][10] Market Trends and Projections - Domestic tourism in China has shown strong growth, with 3.67 billion visits and 3.7 trillion Yuan in tourism-related revenue in the first nine months of 2023 [7] - The China Tourism Academy projects a 114% increase in tourism-related revenue compared to the previous year, nearing pre-pandemic levels [6][7] - Analysts expect Trip.com’s revenue and EBITDA to grow by 10-20% from 2023 to 2025, driven by improved cost management and market positioning [8] Geopolitical Considerations - The U.S. Travel Association highlights that resolving visa wait times could significantly boost U.S. tourism revenue from Chinese visitors, who typically spend over $5,000 per trip [6] - Current visa wait times from China to the U.S. are approximately 164 days, and flight capacity is less than 10% of pre-pandemic levels, indicating potential for future growth [6][10] Investment Sentiment - The travel industry is viewed as more insulated from regulatory changes compared to other sectors, with a potential for recovery in both domestic and international travel segments [10] - Trip.com is expected to gradually ascend in investment value as the travel market stabilizes and grows [10]