In this articleRIVNUBERAMZNTSLAGOOGLThe Texas flag flies outside TDECU Stadium in Houston, Oct. 21, 2023.Tim Warner | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesTesla's long-awaited entry into the robotaxi market — expected later this month — is coming to Austin, Texas, which has emerged as a key battleground for self-driving technology.CEO Elon Musk wrote in a post on X last week that the company has been testing Model Y vehicles with no safety drivers on board in the Texas capital for several days.Tesla's Austin ro ...

Key Takeaways TSLA car sales fell in multiple European markets in May, marking five consecutive months of declines. TSLA's steep drops in Sweden, Portugal and France came despite rising EV sales overall in those countries. New Model Y variants boosted TSLA sales 213% in Norway, aided by incentives and refreshed offerings.Tesla’s (TSLA) car sales dropped significantly in several European countries in May, which marks the fifth straight month of declines. This downturn has been attributed to CEO Elon Musk’ ...

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Group 1 - Piper Sandler maintains a bullish outlook on Tesla, reaffirming an 'Overweight' rating and setting a price target of $400 per share, indicating a potential upside of about 17% from the last closing price of $342 [1] - Analyst Alexander Potter highlights Tesla's aggressive vertical integration strategy in its battery supply chain, distinguishing it from competitors [3][5] - Tesla is the only major automaker pursuing large-scale battery production independently of China, a strategic move amid global supply chain instability [4][6] Group 2 - Tesla's in-house production of 4680 battery cells shows minimal reliance on Chinese inputs, with plans to produce cathode active materials, refine lithium, manufacture anodes, and integrate these components into its electric vehicles [5] - Despite mixed sales performance in key markets, Piper Sandler views Tesla's strategy as a compelling long-term value proposition [5] - In May 2025, Tesla's new car sales in Spain dropped 29% year-over-year, while sales in Norway surged 213%, driven by strong demand for the Model Y [7][8] Group 3 - Tesla is regaining attention on Wall Street following CEO Elon Musk's return after a government role, with some recent challenges linked to his political views [9]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is actively pursuing trademark applications for "Tesla Robotaxi" to support its planned autonomous ride-hailing service, following previous challenges in securing trademarks for similar terms [1][2]. Group 1: Trademark Applications - The company initially applied for the trademarks "Robotaxi" and "Cybercab" in October 2024, but faced obstacles from the USPTO requiring more details for "Robotaxi" and outright halting the "Cybercab" application due to competing claims [2][3]. - Tesla has submitted three new applications for the specific term "Tesla Robotaxi" as it prepares to begin testing its autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas later this month [2]. Group 2: Related Trademark Efforts - In addition to "Tesla Robotaxi," Tesla has pending applications for trademarks on "Robobus," "Robus," and "Cyberbus," which are presumably linked to a van-like concept vehicle introduced last October [3]. - The term "Robovan," used by CEO Elon Musk during the Cybercab prototype reveal, is already trademarked by Estonian robotic delivery company Starship, indicating potential challenges for Tesla in branding [3].

Core Insights - Tesla is set to launch its first robotaxi service in Austin, TX, with a tentative start date of June 12, marking a significant step into the autonomous vehicle market [1][2] - The robotaxi service will utilize Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, with CEO Elon Musk stating that Model Y vehicles are already being tested on public roads without a driver [2] - Despite the excitement, there are concerns regarding the lack of detailed information about the service's operational aspects, including vehicle deployment and safety measures [3][11] Tesla's Competitive Position - Tesla faces stiff competition from Waymo, which currently leads the U.S. robotaxi market, operating commercial services in four cities and providing over 250,000 paid rides weekly [6] - Waymo has adopted a cautious approach, focusing on data collection and safety studies, while Tesla has relied on bold claims from its CEO without substantial public data [7][20] - Tesla's robotaxis are expected to have a cost advantage, with production costs estimated at $50,000 compared to Waymo's $180,000 due to Tesla's reliance on cameras instead of high-end sensors [9] Market Challenges - Tesla is experiencing declining deliveries and increased competition from both legacy automakers and new entrants like BYD, which has surpassed Tesla in EV deliveries for two consecutive quarters [12][13] - The company has been offering deep discounts to boost demand, which is negatively impacting profit margins, leading to a reduction in growth targets for 2025 [14] - Tesla's stock has seen a 23% increase recently, likely due to optimism surrounding the robotaxi launch, but much of this may already be priced into the stock [4][22] Valuation Concerns - Tesla's forward price/sales ratio stands at 10.69, significantly higher than the industry average of 2.77, raising concerns about overvaluation [16] - The market appears to be pricing in expectations for breakthroughs in high-risk areas like autonomous driving, which remain unproven [18][21] - Given the current challenges in Tesla's core EV business and the uncertainties surrounding the robotaxi launch, the investment case appears weaker [21][22]

Group 1 - The investor has a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares, with a portfolio split of approximately 50%-50% [1] - The investment strategy involves buying stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, especially when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, their leverage, and to compare financial ratios with sector and industry averages [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, primarily using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] - The investor conducts professional background checks on insiders who purchase shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] - The investment timeframe typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, indicating a medium-term investment horizon [1]

Core Insights - Tesla's car sales in Norway surged by 213% in May, reaching 2,600 units compared to 832 units a year earlier, primarily driven by the revamped Model Y [2][5][10] - Despite this success in Norway, Tesla's overall European sales have faced significant declines, with a reported 49% drop in April due to rising competition and reputational damage linked to CEO Elon Musk's political activities [5][12] Sales Performance - The increase in Tesla's sales in Norway is attributed to the popularity of the Model Y, which offers good value for money and meets local consumer needs such as luggage space and all-wheel drive [4][10] - In contrast, other European markets like Spain, Portugal, Denmark, and Sweden reported lower sales for Tesla vehicles in May [3] Market Dynamics - A survey indicated that 43% of Norwegian EV drivers would avoid purchasing a Tesla due to political reasons, suggesting that Musk's political affiliations may impact brand perception [5][4] - The Norwegian market benefits from strong EV incentives, including VAT exemptions and access to bus lanes, which have contributed to the high adoption rates of electric vehicles [9][8] Competitive Landscape - Tesla faces increasing competition from traditional automakers and Chinese brands, with BYD recently surpassing Tesla in pure electric car sales in Europe [12] - Norway has the highest battery electric vehicle adoption rate and a significant share of Chinese vehicles, indicating a growing market demand for electric cars [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns have been raised regarding Tesla's growth potential and valuation sustainability, leading to a significant exit from the company's stock by The Future Fund [1][2]. Valuation Concerns - Tesla currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 180x based on projected 2025 earnings, which is deemed unprecedented for a $1 trillion company [4]. - Future P/E ratios for 2026 and 2029 are estimated at 120x and 45x, respectively, indicating a perceived valuation imbalance [4]. - The projected slowdown in earnings has led Wall Street to reduce Tesla's earnings estimates for 2026 and 2028 by 25% to 40% [5]. Growth Prospects - The integration of emerging technologies like Robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot may contribute to a slowdown in Tesla's growth rate [2][3]. - Analysts predict that as forecasts extend to 2029 and beyond, Tesla's forward growth rate will decline [3]. Investment Strategy - The Future Fund's exit from Tesla stock is based on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term market sentiment, emphasizing a disciplined investment strategy focused on intrinsic value [2][6]. - True valuation should consider the present value of all future cash flows, rather than just short-term results [6]. Market Performance - Tesla's stock has recently lost momentum, closing down over 3% at $346.46, with a year-to-date decline of nearly 9% [7]. - Broader challenges include declining sales and backlash related to CEO Elon Musk's political views, although Musk's recent exit from a government advisory role may be seen as a potential catalyst for renewed growth [9].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with shares fluctuating between $220 and $430, yet the company's growth narrative remains strong, supported by two key factors that suggest potential investment before the upcoming earnings call in late July [1] Group 1: Capital Advantage - Tesla possesses a substantial capital advantage, which is critical in the electric vehicle (EV) sector where many competitors have failed due to financial constraints [2] - The capital and time required to bring an EV to market are often underestimated; Tesla's journey from inception to market was relatively swift compared to competitors like Rivian and Lucid Motors [3] - Currently, Tesla is the largest pure-play EV company in North America, with a market capitalization of approximately $1 trillion, while Rivian and Lucid Group together are valued at only $30 billion [4] - Tesla's ability to raise $30 billion in new cash by diluting shareholders by just 2.5% enhances its financial stability and lowers its cost of debt, providing a significant competitive edge [4][5] Group 2: Robotaxi Growth Opportunity - The introduction of Tesla's robotaxi service, starting with the Cybercab and initially utilizing Model Ys, is seen as a major growth opportunity, with expectations of dominating the U.S. ride-hailing market [7] - Investor Cathie Wood predicts that the robotaxi service could significantly increase Tesla's stock price and contribute over 90% of the company's revenues in the long term, potentially reaching $1.7 trillion by 2040 [7][9] - Despite skepticism regarding the timelines for the robotaxi service's rollout, Tesla's capital advantages provide the necessary resources to develop and scale this initiative over the coming years [8][9]