Core Viewpoint - The stock market is expected to achieve another double-digit percentage gain in 2025, with the S&P 500 index showing a year-to-date gain of 16.81% as of December 5, despite significant declines in several individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Worst-Performing Stocks - Fiserv (FISV) has seen a decline of approximately 70%, attributed to a drastic cut in its full-year revenue forecast and slowing growth in its merchant-services segment [3]. - The Trade Desk (TTD) is down approximately 67%, facing decreased revenues due to competition from major players like Amazon, leading investors to view the stock as overvalued [4]. - Deckers Outdoor (DECK) has dropped around 57%, with slowing growth expectations and pressure on discretionary consumer spending impacting its well-known brands, UGG and Hoka [5]. - Gartner (IT) is down approximately 52%, with its valuation at $17 billion, facing cyclical pressure as companies reduce spending on advisory services during economic uncertainty [6].

Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is a technology company with a market cap of $17.7 billion, providing a self-service cloud-based ad-buying platform for digital advertising campaigns [1][2] - TTD has experienced significant stock price declines, with a 74.4% drop from its 52-week high of $141.53, and a 20.5% decline over the past three months [3][4] - Despite recent challenges, TTD's Q3 results showed an adjusted EPS of $0.45 and revenue of $739.4 million, both exceeding Wall Street expectations [5] Company Performance - TTD's stock has underperformed compared to the Nasdaq Composite, with a 46.8% dip over six months and a 72.7% decline over the past year [4] - The company has been trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [4] - Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating for TTD, with a mean price target of $62.38, suggesting a potential upside of 72.4% [6] Competitive Landscape - TTD faces increasing competition, particularly from Magnite, Inc. (MGNI), which has shown more resilience in the market [6]

Core Insights - The Trade Desk enters 2026 with a strong business foundation but faces increased scrutiny regarding future performance and competitive pressures [2][14] - The company has experienced a shift in competitive dynamics, particularly due to Amazon's growing influence in the digital advertising space [8][11] Company Performance - The Trade Desk has maintained a strong track record with over 30 consecutive quarters of revenue beats and customer retention above 95% [4][5] - However, the company reported its first revenue miss in years by the end of 2024, which altered investor sentiment despite a rebound in growth [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Amazon Ads surpassed $50 billion in annual revenue, reshaping the competitive landscape, especially with partnerships with Netflix, Disney, and Roku [8][9][10] - Google and Meta have also strengthened their ecosystems, leveraging AI-driven personalization and first-party data, which poses challenges for independent platforms like The Trade Desk [11] Strategic Positioning - The Trade Desk's commitment to the open internet remains its key advantage, focusing on neutrality and cross-platform reach [12] - However, the fragility of the open internet was highlighted in 2025, as more consumption shifts to streaming platforms, potentially limiting The Trade Desk's supply access [13] Future Outlook - The company heads into 2026 with a robust product roadmap and loyal customer base, but must navigate a more competitive environment and maintain execution excellence [14][16] - Investors are advised to approach 2026 with heightened expectations and a clearer understanding of the evolving landscape [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk has experienced a significant decline in 2025, losing 66.2% of its value, making it one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 Index, raising questions about its future performance and potential recovery in 2026 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Trade Desk's market capitalization is currently $18 billion, with a current stock price of $36.63, down from a 52-week high of $136.42 [3]. - The company missed revenue estimates for Q4 2024, marking its first miss in 33 quarters, despite a revenue growth of over 22% in that quarter [3][4]. - For 2025, revenue is projected to be $2.89 billion, reflecting an 18.2% growth rate, which is an 8-percentage-point deceleration from 2024 [4]. - Adjusted earnings per share are expected to grow by only 7.2% in 2025, indicating margin compression [4][5]. Challenges Faced - The Trade Desk's performance has been impacted by tough comparisons to the 2024 election year, which typically sees increased ad spending [8]. - The company has invested heavily in overhauling its digital ad data marketplace, introducing new services like Audience Unlimited, which may have contributed to the financial strain [9]. - High executive turnover, including the replacement of key positions such as CFO, COO, and CRO, has raised investor concerns [10]. - Increased competition from larger tech companies, particularly Amazon, poses a significant threat, as Amazon has been aggressively undercutting The Trade Desk's pricing [12][13]. Competitive Landscape - Amazon's demand-side platform (DSP) is seen as a major competitor, leveraging its e-commerce data to enhance ad offerings while offering lower fees compared to The Trade Desk [12][13]. - The Trade Desk's CEO has argued that Amazon's DSP primarily serves its own inventory, suggesting that Amazon may not effectively compete in the broader market [17][20]. Future Outlook - There is potential for a turnaround if The Trade Desk can demonstrate stronger revenue and earnings growth, as current valuations may already reflect existing fears [22]. - The stock trades at 22.1 times this year's adjusted EPS and 18.9 times next year's estimates, indicating a more favorable risk-reward ratio for potential buyers [22][23]. - The company's focus on maintaining neutrality and measuring ad effectiveness across the open internet could position it favorably against competitors in the long run [18][21].

Group 1 - The article discusses the investment positions of Parkev Tatevosian, CFA, in The Trade Desk, indicating a personal stake in the company [1] - The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends The Trade Desk, suggesting a positive outlook on the company's performance [1] - There is a disclosure policy mentioned, highlighting the potential for compensation related to promoting The Trade Desk, which may influence opinions [1]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest now [1] - The energy demands of AI technologies are highlighted, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities, leading to concerns about power grid strain and rising electricity prices [2] - A specific company is positioned as a critical player in the AI energy sector, owning essential energy infrastructure assets that will benefit from the increasing demand for electricity driven by AI [3][7] Investment Opportunity - The company in focus is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is crucial for supplying energy to AI data centers, making it a unique investment opportunity [3][6] - It is described as a "toll booth" operator in the energy sector, profiting from the export of American LNG and poised to benefit from the onshoring trend due to tariffs [5][14] - The company is debt-free and has significant cash reserves, equating to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which positions it favorably compared to other energy firms [8][10] Market Position - The company has a substantial equity stake in another AI-related venture, providing indirect exposure to multiple growth engines in the AI sector [9] - It is trading at less than 7 times earnings, indicating a potentially undervalued stock with significant upside potential [10] - The company is involved in large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction projects across various energy sectors, including nuclear energy, which is crucial for future power strategies [7][14] Industry Trends - The AI infrastructure supercycle, driven by increasing energy needs and the onshoring boom, is expected to create substantial growth opportunities [14] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is anticipated to lead to rapid advancements and innovative ideas, further solidifying AI's role as a disruptor in traditional industries [12][11] - The overall sentiment is that investing in AI is synonymous with investing in the future, with a call to action for investors to participate in this technological revolution [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk is a high-quality company in ad tech, but its investment potential is debated as competitive pressures increase going into 2026 [1] Reasons to Buy - The business remains fundamentally strong with revenue growth in the high teens and customer retention exceeding 95% in 2025, indicating continued advertiser reliance on the platform [3][4] - The growth of connected TV (CTV) and retail media provides long-term tailwinds as advertisers shift budgets to data-driven channels, positioning The Trade Desk to benefit from this structural market growth [4] - The AI-powered platform Kokai is gaining traction, leading to lower acquisition costs and improved engagement, which could provide a competitive advantage if it continues to deliver ROI [5][6] Reasons to Stay Cautious - Competition has intensified with Amazon's advertising business gaining traction, particularly through its partnership with Netflix, which poses risks to The Trade Desk's premium supply access [10][11] - The company's history of flawless execution has been disrupted, with a streak of beating revenue expectations ending in late 2024, leading to increased volatility and investor skepticism [12][13] - The stock carries a premium valuation with a P/E ratio of 46, requiring strong growth and stable margins to justify the price, which is uncertain given the current competitive landscape [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - Nasdaq announced changes to the Nasdaq-100 index, with six companies being added and six companies being removed, effective December 22 [1] Group 1: Companies Added - The following six companies will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index: - Enliven Therapeutics - Ferrovia Group - Insmed - Monolithic Power Systems - Seagate Technology Holdings - Western Digital [1] Group 2: Companies Removed - The following six companies will be removed from the Nasdaq-100 index: - Biogen - CDW - GlobalFoundries - Lululemon Athletica - ON Semiconductor - The Trade Desk [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk has experienced a significant stock decline of approximately 67% year-to-date, raising questions about its growth potential and market position [1][10]. Financial Performance - The Trade Desk reported revenue of US$739 million for the third quarter, marking an 18% year-over-year increase [2]. - Excluding political ad spending from the previous year, underlying growth accelerated to 22%, up from 19% in the prior quarter, indicating a solid financial foundation [3]. Competitive Landscape - Investor concerns are heightened due to competition from Amazon, whose advertising division grew over 23% year-on-year and generated nearly 24 times the revenue of The Trade Desk [5]. - CEO Jeff Green emphasized that Amazon's revenue primarily comes from sponsored listings, which differ from The Trade Desk's focus on open internet programmatic advertising [5][6]. Internal Developments - The Trade Desk has undergone significant internal restructuring, including the hiring of a new COO, CFO, and Chief Revenue Officer, the latter coming from Google, signaling a long-term strategic vision [7][8]. - The company's AI-driven platform, Kokai, has shown strong results, leading to improved client performance metrics such as a 26% better cost per acquisition and a 94% improvement in click-through rates [8][14]. Business Strategy - Joint Business Plans (JBPs) now account for approximately half of The Trade Desk's revenue and are growing faster than the overall business, with over 180 active JBPs [9]. - The current stock price around US$39 reflects a shift from hypergrowth expectations to a focus on profitability and strong cash flow, positioning the company for future growth despite competitive pressures [10][11].

The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk has seen its stock decline 71% from its record high, but analysts believe it is undervalued with a median target price of $60 per share, implying a 53% upside from the current price of $39 [10] - The company operates the largest demand-side platform (DSP) for the open internet, which allows media buyers to optimize digital campaigns without bias from owning media content [4][5] - The Trade Desk is particularly strong in connected TV (CTV) advertising, which is the fastest-growing segment in the industry [6] - Despite concerns about slowing growth and increased competition from Amazon, which is undercutting fees, analysts remain optimistic about The Trade Desk's ability to maintain its leadership position due to its independent business model [7][8] - The current valuation of The Trade Desk is 45 times earnings, with expected earnings growth of 20% annually over the next three years [9] MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre's stock has declined 24% from its record high, with a median target price of $2,842 per share, indicating a 42% upside from the current price of $1,999 [10] - The company operates the largest online marketplace in Latin America, benefiting from a strong network effect that enhances value for both buyers and sellers [11][12] - MercadoLibre reported a 39% increase in revenue to $7.4 billion, marking the 27th consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 30%, driven by strong performance in its fintech segment [13] - Although net income increased only 6% to $8.32 per diluted share due to strategic investments, these investments are expected to drive long-term growth [14] - Wall Street anticipates MercadoLibre's earnings will grow at 32% annually over the next three years, making its current valuation of 49 times earnings reasonable [15]