V i e w p o i n t | 16 Apr 2025 17:15:55 ET │ 23 pages China Internet Assessing Impact From Trade Dispute & Potential ADR Delisting Risks CITI'S TAKE Following escalation of tariff dispute since April 2nd, although the heightened tariff risk has limited direct impact on China internet companies' operations except for PDD's Temu and to a lesser extent AliExpress, the consequences from bilateral tension could lead to a global economic slowdown, investment outflow and FX fluctuation. With internet giants stepp ...

V i e w p o i n t | 17 Apr 2025 14:09:17 ET │ 107 pages Emerging Markets Economic Outlook & Strategy US-Led Trade Turmoil and its EM Implications CITI'S TAKE The global trading system has been drastically altered by Liberation Day turmoil and US-China tariff dispute, dealing a significant demand shock to EM. We simulate the growth impact by assuming US trading partners are bucketed into three groups – strong allies, "complicated partners" and China. In reality, we expect trade negotiations could be a lot me ...

CITI'S TAKE Materials demand in 1Q25 was mostly in line with our expectation, with stronger prints on steel and cement, and weaker on coal. As the trade war between the US and China escalates, we assess the impact from trade disruptions and potential RMB depreciation on materials. We believe the impact of tariffs has already kicked in for the battery supply chain (see note) and expect more to be felt through commodities in the coming months. This should call for more decisive policies from Chinese side to b ...

A c t i o n | 17 Apr 2025 11:23:20 ET │ 14 pages ASML Holding NV (ASML.AS) Lower estimates on tariff uncertainty, customer plans steady for now CITI'S TAKE ASML had the unenviable task of being the first major chip company to comment on the industry's state of play under the moving target of tariffs. It has kept its 2025 revenue range of €30-35bn and 2026 expectation of growth, but acknowledged greater uncertainty. ASML has not yet had any customers change plans or delay shipment schedules, but the longer/h ...

Flash | 17 Apr 2025 13:58:19 ET │ 12 pages Advanced Micro-Fabrication Eq (688012.SS) 2024 Results In-Line with Preliminary, Etcher Revenue Up 55% YoY CITI'S TAKE AMEC today (17 Apr) released its 2024 official results, with revenue and gross profit up 45% and 36% YoY in 2024, both of which are in line with its 2024 preliminary results. Despite strong gross profit growth, net profit dropped by 9% YoY to Rmb1.61bn in 2024, mainly due to lower investment incomes. GPM also contracted by 2.8pp YoY to 41.1% in 202 ...

Flash | Essential Energy: The Energy Industry is Unlikely to Panic CITI'S TAKE For the energy industry the scale of uncertainty – currently at least – we think sits far-removed from either of the last two economic shocks (GFC or covid). Oil prices are still well-within one standard-deviation of their 20Y average, while industry balance sheets sit significantly better than they were running into covid, both factors that allow the industry some financial leeway to figure out whether this is a V, U or L-shaped ...

16 Apr 2025 04:01:24 ET │ 34 pages Global Multi-Asset Tariff risk rally: The pause is the cause but macro-risk hasn't thawed CITI'S TAKE The pause in the imposition of higher-than-expected US tariffs, which sent shockwaves across global markets, has brought some respite but uncertainty remains. Citi economists still believe the tariffs will act as a supply shock, increasing inflation in the US and lowering GDP growth. The impact is likely asymmetric; disinflationary in the RoW and a big threat to "Factory A ...

V i e w p o i n t | 14 Apr 2025 15:50:07 ET │ 36 pages Equity Markets Positioning Model Tariff Pause Offers Limited Boost for US Positioning CITI'S TAKE Positioning levels across US equities edged higher following last Wednesday's announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs. However, uncertainty persists and there had been limited evidence of new long risk flows to US equities. Furthermore, recent market volatility has driven a sharp rise in losses for S&P 500 and EuroStoxx positions, and this could further a ...

花旗速度 --- Citi Velocity CitiPoint Asia: First Read Of Impact Of Tariffs On Global Trade - US Is Winning Trade War Game 花旗亚洲：⾸次解读关税对全球贸易的影响--美国正在赢得贸易战游戏 Markets 市场 Mohammed Apabhai 穆罕默德-阿帕巴伊 20 hours ago Asia Trading Strategies 亚洲交易策略 NOT A PRODUCT OF CITI RESEARCH ‒ INTENDED FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. ⾮花旗研究部产品，仅供机构客⼾使⽤。 MACRO: FIRST READ OF IMPACT OF TARIFFS ON GLOBAL TRADE - US IS WINNING TRADE WAR GAME 宏观：⾸次解读关税对全球贸易的影响--美国正在赢得贸易战游戏 Markets have been looking for signs of the impact of the Trade War on ...

V i e w p o i n t | 14 Apr 2025 02:12:21 ET │ 10 pages China Economics The Sequence of Monetary Policies Amid Tariff Escalations CITI'S TAKE New credit beat in March, and the economy should have stayed in a solid shape. That said, we look through this set of numbers as trade dispute escalated in April. The domestic economy also started to show more weakness in April, especially in the housing sector. More policy easing should be warranted. The next few weeks could be a window for monetary policy actions, in ...