China TransInfo Technology (002373.SZ) Quick Take: Mixed 1Q25 Print – Op. Profit Miss but Earnings Beat on Investment Income CITI'S TAKE Flash | Transinfo reported 1Q25 results with 1Q25 revenue edging up 2% YoY to Rmb1.6bn, 18% ahead BBGe, and 1Q25 GM expanded 0.6ppts YoY to 29.7%, 4.6ppts below BBGe. 1Q25 opex stood at Rmb555mn (flat YoY), 34% higher than BBGe, thus the 1Q25 operating loss came in at Rmb77mn. Helped by the gain from a fair value change in investment of Rmb302mn, 1Q25 net profit was Rmb221 ...

V i e w p o i n t | 27 Apr 2025 19:18:22 ET │ 11 pages China Technology Read-through from Shanghai Auto Show CITI'S TAKE Among our coverage, Xiaomi, ThunderSoft and NavInfo attended the Shanghai Auto Show as usual, while AAC attended for the first time post PSS consolidation in 2024 and First Light Auto in Mar 2025. Key takeaways: (1) AAC is expanding its auto product offerings and first showcases motor system; WLG adoption seems on track. (2) Xiaomi YU7 launch schedule remains unchanged for June/July, whil ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on Technology and upgrades Autos to Overweight within Cyclical Value, while Underweighting Construction, Energy, Telecoms, and Utilities [2][7][24]. Core Insights - European equities have stabilized amid moderating trade rhetoric from the Trump Administration, but EPS downgrades are accelerating, with the Earnings Revision Index (ERI) at "recessionary" levels around -60% [2][4][3]. - Historically, such negative ERI readings have been contrarian buy signals, with European equities averaging 25% returns over the following 12 months [4][8]. - The ongoing Q1 reporting season shows 61% of Stoxx 600 companies exceeding EPS expectations, indicating low expectations overall [5][6]. Summary by Sections Earnings - The ERI for Europe is at -61%, the lowest since COVID, indicating widespread downgrades across sectors, with expectations of further downgrades averaging around 20% [15][16]. - Analysts expect a 6 percentage point drag on MSCI ACWI EPS growth due to proposed tariffs, aligning with a global EPS growth forecast of +4% for 2025 [6][27]. Market Views & Sector Strategy - The report suggests that trading conditions may remain volatile due to macro and policy uncertainties, but there is potential for a 5-10% upside for European equities by year-end [7][24]. - The report recommends a balanced approach with Overweights in Tech and Autos, while maintaining Overweights in traditional Defensives like Health Care and Personal Care [2][7]. Valuation - The Pan-European Stoxx 600 index trades at a 12-month forward PE of 13-14x, in line with its long-run median, while traditional Cyclicals are trading at the lowest valuations [85][86]. - The report notes that the current 27% discount of Europe to the US remains significant despite narrowing [85][86].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shuanghuan Drive, with a target price set at Rmb42.0, indicating an expected share price return of 31.0% [4][7]. Core Insights - Shuanghuan's net profit for 2024 increased by 25% year-on-year to Rmb1.02 billion, aligning with market expectations, while the gross profit margin (GPM) expanded by 2.8 percentage points to 25.0%, surpassing both CitiE and consensus estimates [1][2]. - The growth in GPM is attributed to improvements in NEV gear and a reduced contribution from the low-GPM steel trading business, which saw a revenue decline of 46% year-on-year [1][2]. - The best-performing segments were plastic gear, which grew by 69% year-on-year, and NEV gears, which increased by 51% year-on-year [1][2]. Revenue and GPM by Product - Revenue growth in 2024 was notable in plastic gear (69% YoY) and NEV gear (51% YoY), while reducers and components and power tool gears also saw growth of 18% and 10% YoY, respectively [2]. - The steel trading business experienced the largest revenue decline due to a change in business model and efforts to mitigate bad debt risk [2]. - GPM improvements were observed across various segments, with plastic gear and passenger vehicle gear GPM expanding by 4.8 and 3.9 percentage points YoY, respectively [2]. Earnings Summary - The earnings summary indicates a projected net profit of Rmb1.026 billion for 2024, with a diluted EPS of Rmb1.202, reflecting a growth of 23.9% [3]. - The report forecasts continued earnings growth, with a projected net profit of Rmb1.279 billion for 2025, representing a 24.7% increase [3]. Valuation - Shuanghuan is valued at Rmb42.0 per share, based on a 28x 2025E EPS and a 25% earnings growth estimate for 2025 [20]. - The stock is considered to be trading at an undemanding valuation of approximately 21x 2025E P/E, which is attractive given the expected earnings growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to Aier Eye Hospital Group due to missed expectations and lack of growth visibility [16][5][12]. Core Insights - Aier reported FY24 revenue of Rmb21 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of Rmb3.6 billion, reflecting a 5.9% year-over-year growth, which was below consensus estimates [1][5]. - The company experienced a significant contraction in gross profit margin in 4Q24, dropping to 38.0% from 47.0% in 4Q23, attributed to increased promotions and lower margins from newly consolidated hospitals [2][5]. - Management indicated that while there was strong growth in January and February 2025, the overall growth prospects for FY25 remain uncertain due to market conditions [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 net profit was Rmb3.6 billion, with a diluted EPS of Rmb0.385, representing a 5.9% growth [6]. - The company expects revenue growth to be driven primarily by small hospitals in the domestic market, while overseas expansion lacks visibility [4][5]. - The target price is maintained at Rmb7, with the stock trading at a P/E ratio of 28x for FY25, indicating a stretched valuation given the limited growth visibility [5][17]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY25E and FY26E have been fine-tuned, with projected revenues of Rmb23.1 billion and Rmb24.9 billion respectively [5][12]. - The report anticipates a core net profit of Rmb4.3 billion for FY25E, reflecting a 20.7% growth [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for IT budgets, with the US expected to grow by 2.7% and Europe by 2.3% over the next twelve months, despite some downward revisions due to tariff impacts [2][29]. Core Insights - Data modernization and Generative AI (GenAI) have surpassed cybersecurity as the top investment priority for CIOs, reflecting a shift in focus towards analytics and digital transformation projects [3][36]. - The overall macroeconomic sentiment has worsened slightly, with 49% of US respondents expecting a decline in macro conditions, which may impact business services budgeting [10][40]. - CIOs have revised their IT budgets down by an average of 3% due to tariff impacts, with 42% expecting no impact from tariffs on their budgets [24][46]. Sector Summaries Software - Data analytics/GenAI is now the top investment priority, followed by digital transformation projects and customer-facing applications [36][8]. - Spending on public cloud infrastructure is expected to grow by 6.6% over the next twelve months, indicating strong demand driven by GenAI workloads [24][62]. Cybersecurity - Cybersecurity has dropped to the second investment priority, with a projected growth rate of approximately 5.3%, which is still higher than the overall IT budget growth [3][10]. - The emphasis on data analytics/GenAI is expected to benefit cybersecurity vendors that can secure GenAI deployments [11][19]. Communication Services and Infrastructure - Despite tariff uncertainties, the US budget for communication services remains resilient at 2.7%, with opportunities for digital transformation and GenAI adoption [10][23]. - Network infrastructure is expected to be negatively impacted by tariffs, ranking second among categories affected [10][49]. Hardware - Spending on PC storage and networking infrastructure is trending positively, while server spending is declining [27][28]. - A mixed recovery in IT hardware spending is noted, with 53% of respondents not expecting GenAI to impact their hardware budgets [28][91]. European Technology - European CIOs have shown increased caution, with a 3% negative impact on IT budgets due to tariffs, although growth expectations remain stable [24][33]. - Financial software and ERP applications are gaining prioritization, indicating resilience for companies like SAP [24][10]. GenAI Trends - Microsoft is the preferred vendor for GenAI investments, followed by Amazon, OpenAI, and Google, with a notable shift in budget allocation towards these technologies [4][67]. - 54% of CIOs expect GenAI investments to lead to a reduction in overall headcount within the next 1-2 years [26][75].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights uncertainty stemming from fluctuations in US trade policy, which has negatively impacted consumer and business sentiment in the US, while global sentiment remains relatively stable but low [1] - Despite the challenges, global retail sales and trade volumes have shown resilience, potentially due to preemptive purchasing ahead of tariff implementations [1] - Labor markets globally remain tight, and global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings indicate expansionary conditions in the first quarter [1] Summary by Sections Global Economic Indicators - US consumer and business sentiment has significantly declined due to rising tariff rates and trade policy uncertainty [1] - Global PMIs have generally remained above the expansion threshold of 50, indicating ongoing growth in manufacturing and services sectors [4][8][9] Retail Sales and Trade Volumes - Global retail sales value and volume have held up well, with year-over-year growth rates of 3.0% for value and 2.7% for volume [26][30] - Trade volumes have also shown positive growth, with a year-over-year increase of 5.7% for global trade [37] Labor Market Conditions - Labor markets are described as tight, with global unemployment rates projected to remain low [42] - Business confidence has seen fluctuations, but overall sentiment remains cautious [42][45] Inflation and Price Indices - Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is reported at 1.5% globally, with core CPI at 3.5% [54][55] - Input prices have shown an upward trend, indicating potential inflationary pressures in the near future [21][22] GDP and Economic Growth - Real GDP growth is projected at 4.6% for the global economy, with developed markets (DM) at 2.9% and emerging markets (EM) at 2.0% [26][30] - The report forecasts continued economic expansion, albeit at a moderated pace due to external uncertainties [41][74]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a conservative investment strategy focused on defensive stocks and sectors due to the anticipated double dip in Japanese stocks [1][4][35] Core Viewpoints - Japanese stocks are likely to experience a double dip in the short term, with potential for the next correction to fall below the recent bottom of TOPIX at 2,200 [2][3][19] - The report identifies three main risks contributing to this outlook: deterioration in US macroeconomic indicators, uncertainty in Japan-US tariff negotiations, and conservative initial guidance from companies during the FY3/25 earnings season [2][9][27] - A recovery in Japanese stocks may not occur until summer or later, contingent on specific conditions such as progress in tariff negotiations and aggressive monetary easing by central banks [27] Summary by Sections Short-term Risks - Japanese stocks currently lack upside momentum after a recent rebound to 2,500 from 2,200 [2][6] - The report highlights risks from US economic indicators, tariff negotiations, and conservative earnings guidance as key factors for the anticipated double dip [2][9][19] Market Correction Insights - The potential downside target for TOPIX is projected at 2,000, with a 12-month forward PER around 10x, aligning with historical downturn levels [3][19] - The report indicates that previous corrections of more than 10% have often led to double dips, particularly when rebounds do not exceed 50% of the initial correction [25][26] Defensive Investment Strategy - A focus on low-risk stocks, high EPS revisions, and strong balance sheets is recommended, as high-rated stocks are expected to underperform [4][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies likely to issue positive guidance and maintain dividends during the uncertain macroeconomic environment [35]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook on the Japan Electronics sector, indicating that sector stocks are attractive following an average decline of approximately 10% over the past month [1]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that US tariffs will be revised before causing a recession, with minimal to moderate impact on Japan's industrial and consumer electronics sectors compared to other export industries [1][2]. - Company-specific catalysts such as restructuring and buybacks are highlighted as potential growth drivers [1]. - The focus is on upcoming results from Hitachi and NEC, which are expected to be less affected by tariffs, while long-term growth prospects are emphasized for Mitsubishi Electric, Panasonic, and Fujitsu [1]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report suggests that tariffs could depress the sector's operating profit (OP) by 21% in gross terms for FY3/26, with varying impacts across companies: Sharp (174%), Yamaha (67%), Hitachi (5%), and Fujitsu (7%) [4][6]. - In a best-case scenario, the average impact on OP across the sector is estimated to be 9% [4]. Company-Specific Analysis - **Sony**: Expected to face the largest impact due to tariffs on PS5 sales, with a significant portion of production in China [8][9]. - **Panasonic**: Anticipated to be heavily affected due to its US sales of white goods and batteries, although some operations may mitigate tariff impacts [10][11]. - **Mitsubishi Electric**: Projected to experience a major impact primarily on air conditioner sales, with 17% of sales coming from North America [12]. - **Hitachi**: Expected to have a minimal impact with a 5% reduction in OP, potentially decreasing to 3% with strategic responses [15]. - **NEC**: Anticipated to be largely unaffected due to its low US sales weighting [16]. - **Casio and Yamaha**: Projected to see significant profit reductions of 47% and 67% respectively, as both companies are in a post-restructuring phase [17][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HK$681, indicating an expected share price increase of 47.9% from the current price of HK$460.40 [2][7]. Core Insights - The 2025 Spark Game Conference showcased a total of 46 game titles, including 26 new games, which is a 35% increase from the previous year. Key titles such as HoK: World, Roco Kingdom, Valorant, and The Finals received significant attention from viewers [1]. - Tencent's strength in self-development and publishing capabilities was highlighted, with a diverse range of game genres presented from both domestic and global studios [1]. - The report emphasizes the positive user feedback and engagement during the conference, suggesting a constructive outlook for Tencent's gaming segment [1]. Summary by Sections Self-Development Games - Tencent presented 18 games from its in-house studios, including notable titles like HoK and CODM, which achieved over 1 billion downloads in 2024 [4][5]. Publishing Games - A total of 13 new licensed titles were showcased, including Path of Exile 2 and The Finals, indicating a robust pipeline for Tencent's publishing segment [5]. Investment Games - Eight games from Tencent's investees were highlighted, including Phantom Blade Zero and Dune: Awakening, showcasing Tencent's strategic investments in the gaming industry [6]. Valuation - The target price of HK$681 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, applying various price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios to different segments, including online games, advertising, social networks, fintech, and cloud services [7].