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建筑行业跟踪报告:估值底部叠加春季躁动,推荐“低估值、筹码优”大建央国企
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-30 02:30
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the construction industry is at a valuation bottom, combined with a seasonal uptick in spring, recommending "undervalued & well-positioned" large state-owned enterprises [4] - The report highlights a positive trend in new orders for major construction state-owned enterprises, with a notable increase in overseas orders outpacing domestic orders [4] - The cash flow situation is improving due to local government debt management and enhanced cash flow control at the enterprise level [4] - The report suggests that market capitalization management is becoming mainstream, with an emphasis on increasing dividend rates and stabilizing dividend amounts [4] - Investment recommendations include major state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and others based on business performance, valuation, cash flow, and market capitalization management [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction sector is experiencing a recovery with improved order volumes and a focus on core engineering business [4] - The report notes that major state-owned enterprises have shown positive growth in new orders, with overseas orders increasing significantly [4] Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the price-to-book (PB) ratios for leading construction state-owned enterprises have returned to historical lows, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4] Cash Flow Management - The report states that the net cash flow from operating activities in the construction industry has improved, indicating better cash flow management practices [4] Market Capitalization Management - The report discusses the trend of increasing dividend payouts among major state-owned enterprises, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and others based on their strong fundamentals and attractive valuations [4]
东方甄选(01797):业务内生增长亮眼,看好自营品持续扩张
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-30 02:10
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 25.24 and a fair value of HKD 27.14 [8]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant internal growth, particularly in its self-operated products, which are expected to continue expanding [2]. - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 2.312 billion for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.72%, and a notable 17% growth when excluding revenue from a specific live-streaming partnership [13]. - The gross profit margin increased by 2.8 percentage points to 36.4%, driven by a rise in self-operated product revenue, which grew by 18.1% to RMB 2 billion, accounting for 52.8% of the total GMV [14]. Summary by Sections 1. FY26H1 Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 2.312 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.72%. Excluding the impact of a specific partnership, the revenue growth was 17% [13]. - The net profit reached RMB 239 million, marking a return to profitability [13]. 2. Main Business Tracking - Self-operated products have expanded significantly, with SKU numbers exceeding 800, becoming a major component of GMV [21]. - The self-operated app's revenue increased from RMB 500 million in FY25H1 to RMB 600 million in FY26H1, indicating a growing preference for self-operated products among paid members [31]. - The company is actively expanding its presence on Douyin (TikTok) with multiple specialized accounts to cover various consumer needs [37]. 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 4.978 billion and adjusted net profits of RMB 492 million for the fiscal year 2026 [43]. - The report suggests a PE valuation of 52X for the company, leading to a fair market value of RMB 255.81 billion, or HKD 27.14 per share, maintaining the "Buy" rating [43].
网宿科技(300017):公司有望受益于CDN等云服务涨价趋势
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 23:30
[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|IT 服务Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 网宿科技(300017.SZ) 公司有望受益于 CDN 等云服务涨价趋势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: 1 / 6 972918116公共联系人2026-01-30 01:08:14 | 盈利预测: | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入 | 4,705 | 4,932 | 5,176 | 5,403 | 5,629 | | 增长率( % ) | -7.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | | EBITDA | 759 | 687 | 799 | 865 | 922 | | 归母净利润 | 613 | 675 | 826 | 758 | 821 | | 增长率( % ) | 221.7% | 10.0% | 22.5% | -8.2% | 8.2% | | EPS ...
广发证券晨会精选-20260130
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 23:30
[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪(1 月第 7 期) [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: | [分析师: Table_Author]许可 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号:S0260523120004 | | SFC CE No. BUY008 | | | 0755-88285832 | | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师: | 符蓉 | | | SAC 执证号:S0260523120002 | | SFC CE No. BWC944 | | | 021-38003552 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | | [联系人: Table_Contacts] 毕露露 bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2026-01-30 00:22:10 1 / 3 识别风险,发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 ⚫ 交通运输:美伊冲突对油运的潜在影响:供给扰动主导,运价具备上行 弹性。未来的发展存在三种可能性:1.极限施压 ...
汽车行业:25年四季度末公募基金超配汽车行业0.62pct
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 11:52
[Table_Page] 深度分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业 25 年四季度末公募基金超配汽车行业 0.62pct [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-29 [分析师: Table_Author]张力月 SAC 执证号:S0260524040004 021-38003727 zhangliyue@gf.com.cn 分析师: 闫俊刚 SAC 执证号:S0260516010001 021-38003682 yanjungang@gf.com.cn 分析师: 陈飞彤 SAC 执证号:S0260524040002 SFC CE No. BWZ819 021-38003726 gfchenfeitong@gf.com.cn 分析师: 周伟 SAC 执证号:S0260522090001 021-38003684 gfzhwei@gf.com.cn 分析师: 罗英 SAC 执证号:S0260525110001 0755-82557403 shluoying@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6 ...
粤海投资(00270):预告25年归母净利润同比增长43%,股息价值突出
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 09:30
[Table_Page] 公告点评|公用事业Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发 环 保 & 海 外 】 粤 海 投 资 (00270.HK) 预告 25 年归母净利润同比增长 43%,股息价值突出 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: 备注:除非特别说明,否则报告货币为港元 | 盈利预测: | | --- | | [Table_ 单位Finance] :港元百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 20,322 | 18,505 | 18,528 | 18,667 | 18,769 | | 增长率( % ) | -12.4% | -8.9% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | | EBITDA | 9,920 | 9,909 | 10,272 | 10,309 | 10,326 | | 归母净利润 | 4,370 | 4,297 | 4,493 | 4,638 | 4,770 | | 增长率( % ) | -8.3% | -1.7% ...
周大福(01929):业绩表现超预期,定价首饰占比提升强化盈利韧性
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 07:09
业绩表现超预期,定价首饰占比提升强化盈利韧性 [Table_Title] 【广发批零社服&海外】周大福 (01929.HK) [Table_Summary] 核心观点: 盈利预测: | [Table_ 单位Finance] :港元百万元 | | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | | 108,713 | 89,656 | 94,150 | 101,463 | 108,211 | | 增长率( ) | % | 14.8% | -17.5% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | | EBITDA | | 11,535 | 10,499 | 13,212 | 15,441 | 16,688 | | 归母净利润 | | 6,499 | 5,916 | 8,161 | 9,803 | 10,716 | | 增长率( ) | % | 20.7% | -9.0% | 38.0% | 20.1% | 9.3% | | EPS(元/股) | | 0.65 | 0.59 | ...
四川成渝(601107):蜀道集团唯一公路平台,扩容外延并举发力
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 04:34
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A/Accumulate-H" rating to the company, with a current price of 6.26 CNY and a reasonable value of 6.43 CNY for A shares, and 5.38 HKD with a reasonable value of 5.75 HKD for H shares [4]. Core Views - The company is the only highway platform under Shudao Group, focusing on both expansion and optimization of existing assets. It is backed by the Sichuan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [9]. - The company has a strong cash flow and has increased its dividend payout ratio to 60%, highlighting its asset dividend characteristics [9]. - The strategic location of the company's assets supports steady growth in toll revenue, with an expected toll income of 4.777 billion CNY in 2024, showing a strong CAGR over the past three years [9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the Sichuan Province's transportation planning, which is among the fastest in the country, and the integration of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [9]. - The company aims to optimize existing assets while expanding its portfolio through upgrades, asset integration, and acquisitions, which are expected to enhance performance and shareholder returns in the medium to long term [9]. Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to decline from 11.652 billion CNY in 2023 to 9.812 billion CNY by 2027, with a significant drop in 2024 due to the end of construction-related income [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 3.577 billion CNY in 2023 to 4.475 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 1.187 billion CNY in 2023 to 1.784 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.39 CNY in 2023 to 0.58 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected to remain stable around 10.7 to 11.9 [2]. Company Overview - The company operates a total of approximately 900 kilometers of highways, with 858 kilometers being toll roads, and has a competitive average remaining toll collection period of 12.38 years [22][27]. - The company’s core assets include major highways such as Chengyu, Chengya, Chengle, and Chengren, which are critical for connecting economically developed and tourist areas in Sichuan [9][23]. - The company has shown a robust performance in toll revenue, with a CAGR of 11.01% from 2021 to 2024, reaching a peak of 4.777 billion CNY in 2024 [29].
吉比特(603444):新品推动业绩表现出色,关注产品储备
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 03:49
[Table_Page] 公告点评|游戏Ⅱ [公司评级 Table_Invest] 买入 当前价格 446.00 元 合理价值 541.76 元 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-29 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 吉比特(603444.SH) 新品推动业绩表现出色,关注产品储备 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: | 盈利预测: | | --- | | [Table_ 单位:Finance] 人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 4,185 | 3,696 | 6,589 | 8,269 | 9,481 | | 增长率( % ) | -19.0% | -11.7% | 78.3% | 25.5% | 14.6% | | EBITDA | 1,718 | 1,303 | 2,694 | 2,921 | 3,268 | | 归母净利润 | 1,125 | 945 | 1,776 | 1,951 | 2,159 | | 增长率( % ...
青岛银行(002948):业绩领跑,经营质效全面提升
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 02:49
[Table_Page] 公告点评|城商行Ⅱ 证券研究报告 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 02/25 04/25 06/25 08/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 青岛银行 沪深300 | [分析师: Table_Author]倪军 | | --- | | SAC 执证号:S0260518020004 | | 021-38003646 | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师: 林虎 | | SAC 执证号:S0260525040004 | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | 021-38003643 | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | | 请注意,倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | | 持牌人,不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究: | | | --- | --- | | 青岛银行 | 2025-10-29 | | (002948.SZ/03866.HK):业绩 | | | 高增持续,中收单季回正 | | | 青岛银行 | 2025-08-29 | | (002948.SZ/03866 ...