[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 证券研究报告 | 分析师： [Tabl | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003674 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 美联储 2026 年 1 月 27-28 日举行议息会议1，FOMC 官员投票保持联邦基金利率在 3.5%-3.75%，这是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第一次暂停。理事沃勒和米兰投反对票，倾向于在此次会议上降息 25 个基点。本次议息 会议决议在市场预期之内，相对更为重要的信息是：（1）美联储 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 44.31 CNY per share based on a 31x PS valuation for 2026 [7]. Core Insights - The company, Gaolun Electronics, focuses on device modeling and circuit simulation, leveraging the DTCO methodology to drive its operations. It has established a competitive product system in key EDA tool areas and aims to build a regional EDA platform through ecosystem development [7][13]. - The EDA industry is expected to grow faster than the economic cycle, driven by increasing chip complexity, advancements in process technology, and the expansion of the ASIC market. Domestic EDA companies are currently in a phase of consolidation and integration, enhancing their growth potential [7][63]. - The company has a robust project pipeline and is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its product offerings and market position. Recent acquisitions include companies like Boda Micro and Entasys, which are expected to enhance its semiconductor IP capabilities [7][13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Gaolun Electronics, established in 2010, is the first listed EDA company in China, providing manufacturing and design EDA tools, semiconductor device testing systems, and technical development solutions. The company has formed long-term partnerships with leading global IC design and manufacturing firms [13][14]. Main Business - The company’s EDA tools cover both manufacturing and design phases, with a focus on device modeling and circuit simulation. Its revenue is primarily generated from EDA tool licensing, semiconductor testing systems, and one-stop technical development solutions, with respective revenue shares of 61.38%, 28.02%, and 10.14% in 2024 [14][17]. Financial Analysis - Revenue has steadily increased from 137 million CNY in 2020 to 419 million CNY in 2024, with a CAGR of 32.13%. The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025 after experiencing losses in 2023 and 2024. The gross margin has remained above 80%, indicating strong pricing power and technical barriers [51][58]. - The company’s R&D expenses have peaked but are expected to decline as revenue scales up, improving overall profitability [59]. EDA Industry - The global EDA market is projected to grow from under 10 billion USD in 2018 to over 15 billion USD currently, while the domestic market is expected to expand from approximately 5 billion CNY in 2016 to nearly 20 billion CNY by 2025, reflecting a double-digit growth rate [63]. - The demand for EDA tools is driven by the increasing complexity of chips, advancements in process technology, and the rapid expansion of the ASIC market, which collectively enhance the usage intensity and budget allocation for EDA tools [66][75].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 67.05 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 57.32 CNY [3][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with net profit projected between 785 million CNY and 950 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 40% to 70% [8][9]. - The commercialization of AI large models is progressing steadily, with a project bid amount of 2.316 billion CNY for 2025 [9][10]. - The developer community for the company's open platform has surpassed 10 million, including 564,000 overseas developers, indicating strong ecosystem growth [9][10]. - The company has improved its cash collection, with total sales receipts expected to exceed 27 billion CNY in 2025, an increase of over 4 billion CNY from 2024 [9][10]. - R&D investment is projected to grow by over 20% in 2025, supporting the performance of the company's AI large models across various industries [10][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 19.65 billion CNY in 2023 to 40.205 billion CNY by 2027, with annual growth rates of 4.4%, 18.8%, 18.7%, 20.4%, and 20.5% respectively [2][12]. - The company's net profit is expected to increase from 657 million CNY in 2023 to 1.426 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 17.1%, -14.8%, 55.5%, 48.3%, and 10.4% [2][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.28 CNY in 2023 to 0.62 CNY in 2027 [2][12]. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic AI technology application sector, with a strong market presence and a broad customer base across various industries, including education, healthcare, and finance [12][13]. - Compared to peers, the company has made significant investments in AI large models and has achieved faster product iteration, creating a competitive edge [12][13]. - The integration of B2B and B2C business models enhances the company's revenue potential and market positioning [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 55.37 RMB and a fair value of 69.74 RMB [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a forecasted growth of 27.6% to 37.9%, reaching 370 to 400 million RMB. The non-recurring net profit is projected to grow by 24.9% to 36.0%, amounting to 340 to 370 million RMB [7][8]. - The company has established a new division focused on computing power support, which is anticipated to be a key growth area. The global demand for new generation computing center products is high, and the company aims to leverage its overseas production capabilities to meet this demand [8][9]. - The company has made progress in its European standard pre-installation business, having already launched its products in the European market, which is expected to create a significant annual revenue opportunity of 1 to 1.5 billion USD [8][9]. - In the autonomous driving sector, the company is promoting its Robobus solution for various applications, including public transport and logistics, indicating a strategic expansion into new market opportunities [9]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 2.68 billion RMB, 3.51 billion RMB, and 4.36 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of -3.5%, 31.0%, and 24.1% [4][10]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 390 million RMB, 500 million RMB, and 620 million RMB, with growth rates of 33.5%, 30.2%, and 22.8% [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.14 RMB, 2.79 RMB, and 3.43 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The acquisition of a 29.06% stake in Puma is a significant strategic move for the company, positioning it as the largest shareholder and enhancing its global market presence [8] - The company aims to leverage its multi-brand strategy and global reach to revitalize Puma's brand value, despite recent performance challenges [8] - Earnings forecasts indicate a projected EPS of 4.70, 5.12, and 5.79 CNY per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target PE of 18 times for 2026, leading to a fair value estimate of 102.91 HKD per share [8] Financial Summary - Main revenue is expected to grow from 62,356 million CNY in 2023 to 94,684 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, 9.4%, 10.0%, and 11.1% respectively [2] - EBITDA is projected to increase from 19,708 million CNY in 2023 to 29,797 million CNY in 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 10,236 million CNY in 2023 to 16,198 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 34.9% in 2023 [2][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the transformative impact of AI agents on human-computer interaction and workflows, indicating a significant shift in user mindset [1][6] - The emergence of various AI agents, such as MoltBot and Claude Cowork, is reshaping productivity tools and enhancing operational efficiency across different sectors [10][31] - The report anticipates a new wave of AI application catalysis, driven by decreasing inference costs and increasing demand for AI solutions in cybersecurity, IT operations, and data governance [54][55] Summary by Sections MoltBot: AI Agent for Developers - MoltBot has gained significant traction among developers, with over 62,400 stars on GitHub and a tenfold increase in search volume from January 25 to 27, 2026 [14][17] - It operates as a multi-terminal automation hub, integrating various tools and allowing users to interact through popular messaging platforms [17][18] - Despite its flexibility, MoltBot faces challenges such as high deployment barriers for non-technical users and potential security vulnerabilities [23][28] Claude Cowork: Office Agent Integration - Claude Cowork is designed for non-technical users, facilitating local workflow automation and task execution [31] - It can manage files and generate complex documents, significantly improving efficiency in various roles, including administrative, marketing, and project management [32][36] - The tool's ability to integrate deeply with local file systems addresses previous limitations of cloud-based models [31][32] Rapid Development of Domestic Agent Products - MiniMax Agent 2.0 has emerged as a comprehensive productivity tool, enhancing user workflows by actively sensing and processing information from local environments [45][49] - Coze 2.0 introduces new capabilities, including skill functions and long-term planning, improving task execution and project management [50][51] - The report emphasizes the growing trend of AI agents in the market, suggesting a shift towards more integrated and user-friendly solutions [54][55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in cybersecurity, IT operations, and data governance, with specific mentions of Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, and Datadog as potential investment opportunities [54][55] - It also highlights the importance of established tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent, as well as emerging players in the AI space, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the sector [54][55]

[Table_Page] 深度分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 一文纵览全国分省份财政社融特征 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： （5）地方债务：2024 年所有省份狭义赤字率平均为 16.4%，广义赤 字率平均为 20.0%，处于 2010 年来偏低水平；债务率平均为 357.0%， 2016 年来持续上行。 [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-28 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 01/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 林虎 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | | 021-38003643 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 28.05 CNY and a fair value of 34.67 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company plans to issue H shares to accelerate overseas expansion and enhance R&D investments, aiming to establish a global smart manufacturing base and develop high and low voltage direct current power supply equipment for data centers [6]. - The company focuses on smart box-type power equipment and electric vehicle charging networks, with significant market presence in public charging facilities, holding an 18.88% market share [6]. - The company has been actively winning overseas projects, including a 700 million CNY high-voltage mobile substation for Saudi Arabia's national grid, which supports long-term performance [6]. - The company has accumulated SST technology, expected to provide integrated solutions for data centers, with plans to launch a 1.0 product by 2027 [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.13 CNY in 2025, 1.39 CNY in 2026, and 1.84 CNY in 2027, with a reference P/E ratio of 25x for 2026, leading to a fair value of 34.67 CNY per share [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 14,602 million CNY in 2023 to 25,094 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 25.6% in 2023 and 24.1% in 2027 [2][9]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 2,047 million CNY in 2023 to 3,809 million CNY in 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise from 491 million CNY in 2023 to 1,942 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 80.4% in 2023 and 32.6% in 2027 [2][9]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 7.3% in 2023 to 17.1% in 2027 [2][9]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 23,877 million CNY in 2023 to 34,241 million CNY in 2027 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The hard discount market in China is entering a golden development period with significant growth potential, as the penetration rate is only about 8%, compared to 42% in Germany and 31% in Japan. The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next decade is 5.6%, significantly higher than traditional retail formats like hypermarkets [6][35]. - The essence of hard discounting lies in the deep restructuring of the supply chain, focusing on a limited number of SKUs (1500-2000 core items) and a high proportion of private label products (up to 90%) to achieve structural cost reductions [6]. - The domestic operational model is evolving from the "631" model, which emphasizes fresh produce, to the "523" model, which balances product effectiveness and consumer scenarios, optimizing profitability by increasing the share of ready-to-eat (3R) foods [6]. - Local players are leveraging digital empowerment and scalable replication, with companies like Super Box NB utilizing Alibaba's ecosystem to achieve structural cost reductions and increase private label share to over 60% [6]. - Global giants like Aldi are adapting their strategies to the Chinese market, maintaining high private label ratios and efficient management, achieving a gross margin of around 20% and daily sales per store of 105,000 to 110,000 yuan [6]. - Investment recommendations focus on retail companies that return to the essence of retail, emphasizing supply chain sovereignty, operational efficiency, and consumer trust. Key recommendations include Yonghui Supermarket, Huijia Times, and Chongqing Department Store, with a watch on Bubu Gao and Jiajiayue [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Background - Discount retail is not merely a price war; it aims to provide quality products at lower prices by stripping away brand premiums and reducing unnecessary costs in traditional retail channels [15]. - Hard discounting is characterized by a systematic restructuring of the traditional retail value chain, focusing on high cost-performance ratios [19]. Development History of Hard Discount Supermarkets - The hard discount model originated in post-war Germany, with Aldi establishing the low-price principle in 1948, leading to the emergence of a dual oligopoly in the German market [22]. - The U.S. market saw the rise of membership warehouse stores like Costco, which integrated low-price strategies with membership fees [23]. Market Landscape - Hard discounting has become a significant force in global retail, with a projected 12.6% share in the top 50 global retailers by 2025, indicating its growth momentum [31]. - In China, the hard discount market is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2024, with a penetration rate of only 8%, highlighting substantial growth potential compared to mature markets [35]. Competitive Landscape - Local players like Super Box NB and Happy Monkey are emerging as strong competitors, leveraging supply chain efficiencies and digital tools to enhance their market positions [44]. - Global benchmarks like Aldi and Sam's Club are adapting their models to the Chinese market, focusing on high private label ratios and efficient operations [6][43].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [2] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the functional sugar segment, with significant growth potential anticipated [1] - The company has achieved a high revenue growth rate, with a projected increase in revenue from 1.38 billion RMB in 2025 to 2.22 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.1% [6][44] - The company is expected to maintain a strong profit margin, with net profit projected to grow from 365 million RMB in 2025 to 611 million RMB in 2027, representing a CAGR of 30.9% [6][46] Summary by Sections 1. Market Growth Potential - The dietary fiber market shows a significant gap in global intake, indicating a strong demand for products in this category [13] - The global dietary fiber market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.03% from 2023 to 2030, with production projected to reach 427,000 tons and sales of 1 billion USD by 2030 [15][19] 2. Company Overview - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to improved profitability, with a notable increase in the sales proportion of high-margin resistant dextrin [7][32] - The company is the first in China to obtain production licenses for resistant dextrin and industrial-scale production of allulose, establishing a competitive edge [32][37] - The company has expanded its production capacity, with new facilities in Thailand expected to enhance its international competitiveness and revenue [40][41] 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.38 billion RMB, 1.73 billion RMB, and 2.22 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 19.7%, 25.8%, and 28.1% [44] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.66 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected increase to 6.11 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting strong growth in profitability [6][46] - The report suggests a target price of 30.02 RMB per share based on a 27x PE ratio for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [46][47]