据万得数据（下同），2025 年规上工业企业营业收入同比增长 1.1%，较前值回落 0.5 个点。 2022-2025 年营业收入年度同比分别为 5.9%、1.1%、2.1%、1.1%。 [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 1 月 27 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 同比转正，新旧分化：2025 年工业企业利润数据点评 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 王丹 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260521040001 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn bjwangdan@gf.com.cn 请注意，王丹并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 2025 年规上工业企业营业收入同比增长 1.1%，略低于 2024 年的 2.1%，持平于 2023 年，营收同比连续 3 年 在 1%-3%的低位区间内徘徊。边际变化看，12 月单月营收同比下降 3.2%，连续 3 个月同比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 7.64 CNY and a fair value of 8.97 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 570 million CNY and 630 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.92% to 53.54%. This growth is primarily attributed to gains from the sale of financial assets and fair value changes of held financial assets, contributing approximately 170 million CNY to net profit [6]. - The fabric business is anticipated to face challenges, while the clothing business is expected to grow rapidly. In the first half of 2025, fabric revenue is projected to decline by 7.85% to 1.851 billion CNY, while shirt revenue is expected to increase by 24.82% to 772 million CNY. The capacity utilization rate for fabric is forecasted at 72%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, while clothing capacity utilization is expected to rise to 95%, up 13 percentage points [6]. - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of improved overseas customer orders as U.S. tariff policies clarify. The company’s fabric business is set to benefit from the rapid release of capacity from its Vietnam project, and the clothing business is expected to perform better due to zero tariffs on exports to Europe from Vietnam [6]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 5,961 million CNY - 2024: 6,091 million CNY - 2025: 6,298 million CNY - 2026: 6,727 million CNY - 2027: 7,322 million CNY - The expected growth rates are -14.1% for 2023, 2.2% for 2024, 3.4% for 2025, 6.8% for 2026, and 8.9% for 2027 [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are: - 2023: 0.47 CNY - 2024: 0.50 CNY - 2025: 0.73 CNY - 2026: 0.64 CNY - 2027: 0.77 CNY [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The poultry industry is expected to see an improvement in the supply chain in 2026, driven by a rebound in prices and a gradual recovery in profitability for the breeding sector [5][91] - The integration trend within the industry is becoming more pronounced, with leading companies benefiting from their downstream channel advantages and collaborative efforts across the supply chain [5][24] - The domestic poultry sector is experiencing a shift towards self-breeding and the replacement of imported breeds due to disruptions caused by avian influenza outbreaks abroad [5][39] Summary by Sections 1. 2025 Poultry Industry Maintains Marginal Profitability, Clear Integration Trend - The poultry industry maintained marginal profitability in 2025, with upstream breeding segments performing better than downstream farming and processing sectors [5][14] - The average price of parent stock chicks in 2025 was 44.75 CNY/set, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, while the average price of commercial chicks was 2.51 CNY each, down 13% year-on-year [5][17] - The total slaughter volume of the top 10 companies reached 4.274 billion birds, accounting for 45.99% of the market, indicating a trend towards consolidation [5][24] 2. Avian Influenza Disrupts Imports, Accelerates Domestic Breed Replacement - In 2025, the cumulative update of grandparent stock chickens was 1.574 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with domestic breeds accounting for approximately 60% of the updates [5][39] - The outbreak of avian influenza in France in December 2025 led to a halt in overseas imports, increasing the uncertainty of supply from abroad [5][46] - Domestic breeds are showing improved performance, with the replacement rate of domestic breeds rising to 34% in 2025 [5][57] 3. 2026 Supply Chain Expected to Improve, Capacity Elasticity Remains a Concern - The inventory of grandparent stock chickens is expected to decline in early 2026, with estimates showing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 3.3% and 12% in March and April, respectively [5][69] - The overall supply of the poultry industry is anticipated to gradually improve in 2026, with profitability expected to return to the breeding sector [5][87] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring parent stock chick sales as a key indicator of supply trends [5][76] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng, Minhe, Xiantan, and Hefeng, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing integration and recovery in the poultry industry [5][91]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the commercial aerospace sector, emphasizing the long-term investment value in this area [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that SpaceX's Starship aims to reduce the cost of space access by 100 times, with a target of producing 10,000 Starships annually, which could redefine global logistics [3][12]. - The learning curve in aerospace manufacturing suggests that as production scales, costs will decrease significantly, potentially lowering the cost per kilogram to around $15.6 [3][49]. - The report discusses the diminishing marginal returns of rocket reusability, indicating that future cost reductions will rely more on mass production rather than just reusability [3][14]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report introduces the concept of drastically reducing space access costs and the ambitious production goals of SpaceX's Starship, which could transform the space economy [3][12]. Cost Reduction Analysis - Current rocket reusability has led to significant cost reductions, but the report notes that the benefits may diminish over time [14]. - The learning curve in aerospace indicates that cumulative production will lead to lower unit costs, with typical learning rates between 85% and 90% [32][39]. - If SpaceX achieves its goal of producing over 10,000 Starships annually, the cost per kilogram could drop to approximately $15.6, driven by both reusability and mass production [49][50]. Business Model Revolution - The report draws parallels between the standardization of shipping containers and the modular approach of SpaceX's rockets, which allows for diverse customer needs while reducing costs [57]. - A launch cost of around $15 per kilogram could revolutionize logistics networks, making space transportation more accessible and efficient [57]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of technological upgrades and the need to capitalize on industry trends and commercialization rhythms, reiterating the long-term investment potential in the commercial aerospace sector [3].

[Table_Page] 深度分析|建筑材料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 12 月投资端降幅扩大，2026 年有望开门红 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 持有 前次评级 持有 报告日期 2026-01-27 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 25 972918116公共联系人2026-01-27 16:41:57 ⚫ 12 月地产/基建投资降幅环比扩大，2026 年有望开门红。12 月固定资 产投资当月同比-15.1%，前值-12.0%；其中制造业/地产/狭义基建/广 义基建投资单月同比分别为-10.5%/-35.8%/-12.2%/-15.9%，增速环比 分别-6.1/-5.5/-2.5/-4.0pct，可能和"推动投资止跌回稳"政策方向既定 的情况下，地方政府会更倾向于把投资节奏集中于 2026 年初有关。 2025 年 1-12 月房地产开发投资/新开工面积/销售面积/竣工面积分别同 比-17.2%/-20.4%/-8.7%/-18.1%，12 月地产相关指标继续低位徘徊， 2026 开年之后二手房成交回暖 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 1 月 27 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（1 月第 6 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]郑恺 | | | --- | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | | 021-38003559 | | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 张力月 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524040004 | | | 021-38003727 | | | zhangliyue@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，张力月并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | [联系人： Table_Contacts] 戴亚敏 daiyamin@gf.com.cn 联系人： 毕露露 bilulu@gf.com.cn 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 3 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 ⚫ 计算机：国产 AI 大模型性能的提升有望推动 AI ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 1 月 27 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（1 月第 6 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]郑恺 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 张力月 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524040004 | | 021-38003727 | | zhangliyue@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，张力月并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | [联系人： Table_Contacts] 戴亚敏 daiyamin@gf.com.cn 联系人： 毕露露 bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2026-01-27 09:07:40 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 3 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 ⚫ 计算机：国产 AI 大模型性能的提 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 3.38 CNY per share for 2026, and a corresponding target price of 1.56 HKD per share for its H-shares [7]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in energy construction, with a comprehensive layout in hydrogen energy and data centers, marking a second growth curve [7]. - The company has a strong position in the energy construction sector, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7% for revenue and 15.8% for net profit from 2020 to 2024 [7]. - The company aims to enhance its overseas business and expand into emerging sectors such as hydrogen energy and data centers, which are expected to drive performance and valuation improvements [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Energy Construction Leader - The company is formed by the merger of China Gezhouba Group, China Electric Power Engineering Consulting Group, and other entities, providing a full-cycle development solution in energy and infrastructure [15]. - It has a complete service capability that includes planning, consulting, construction, manufacturing, and investment operations [15]. 2. Competitive Advantages - The company focuses on four core industries: new energy, new infrastructure, new equipment, and new materials, aiming to reshape its operational framework to adapt to new production forces [48]. - It has established a robust overseas presence with six regional headquarters and 256 branches, covering over 140 countries [50]. 3. Business Development - The company has a significant market share in the domestic thermal power market (over 80%) and large hydropower market (over 50%) [7]. - It has integrated investments in hydrogen energy and data centers, with substantial projects underway, including a total investment of 5.5 billion CNY in the Gansu Qingyang data center project [7]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 8.7 billion CNY in 2025, 9.4 billion CNY in 2026, and 10.2 billion CNY in 2027 [2]. - The report highlights a stable financial structure with a healthy cash flow, despite a slight decline in profit margins [35][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the computer industry [2] Core Insights - The commercialization of AI programming is accelerating, with significant efficiency improvements in software development driven by AI models like Claude and IDE tools like Cursor [6][11] - Domestic AI programming tools are gaining traction, with companies like DeepSeek and卓易信息 showing promising commercial outcomes [6][11] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with domestic AI models increasingly utilized in local programming tools, offering better cost-performance ratios compared to foreign counterparts [6][25] Summary by Sections AI + Programming Commercial Prospects - AI significantly enhances programming efficiency, potentially lowering the migration barriers for CUDA ecosystems [11] - The integration of AI models into various stages of software development is expanding, with notable improvements in code generation accuracy and flexibility [12][18] Acceleration of AI Programming Industrialization - Domestic players are rapidly advancing in the AI + programming sector, with tools like Cursor and GitHub Copilot demonstrating effective commercial applications [32] - Cursor's approach focuses on holistic software development processes, enhancing overall business efficiency compared to traditional tools [32][33] Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics - The market share of AI models in programming is dominated by Anthropic's Claude, which has a significant presence in tools like Cursor [39][41] - The revenue growth of companies like Cursor reflects the increasing adoption of AI-assisted programming tools among major enterprises [43][47] - Domestic AI models are expected to benefit from the market opportunities left by the withdrawal of foreign models, enhancing their commercial viability [53]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading private engineering design firm in China, actively innovating and expanding new business lines to create a second growth curve. It is the only firm in the country with comprehensive design capabilities across all transportation sectors [10][18]. - The company is focusing on low-altitude economy initiatives, having signed strategic cooperation agreements to establish six core benchmarks in this area. The low-altitude business segment saw a 96% year-on-year increase in orders in 2024 [10][47]. - The digital transformation is a key focus, with the integration of digital technologies into the transportation sector, providing comprehensive digital solutions. The digital intelligence business is expected to generate revenues of 421 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 7.9% [10][48]. - Profit forecasts indicate that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 352 million yuan in 2025, with a corresponding reasonable value of 10.30 yuan per share based on a 20x PE valuation for 2025 [10][9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview and Business Expansion - The company has a unique position as the only firm with comprehensive design capabilities in the transportation sector, having received numerous awards and maintaining a strong market presence [18][20]. - Traditional business lines are being complemented by new ventures in comprehensive testing, low-carbon and environmental services, and digital intelligence, with significant revenue contributions from these new areas [23][24]. Section 2: Low-Altitude Business Development - The company has established a robust low-altitude business framework, integrating research, planning, and application across the entire industry chain. It has formed strategic partnerships with over 20 leading enterprises in the sector [47][53]. - The low-altitude business segment is expected to continue growing, with new contracts signed in the first half of 2025 amounting to 42.33 million yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year [10][66]. Section 3: Water Transport and Digital Solutions - The company is enhancing its water transport business, aiming to benefit from canal construction projects while implementing digital design solutions for smart transportation [10][48]. - The integration of digital technologies is expected to provide significant growth opportunities, with the digital intelligence segment showing faster revenue growth compared to traditional business lines [10][48]. Section 4: Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The company’s revenue is projected to decline slightly in the near term, with a forecasted revenue of 4.32 billion yuan in 2025, but is expected to stabilize and grow thereafter [9][10]. - The investment recommendation is to "Buy," with a target price of 10.30 yuan per share based on future earnings potential and market positioning [10][9].