[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|医药生物 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 医药生物行业 Vertex JPM 会议更新：关注国内企业疼痛 和肾病领域进展 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-18 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]罗佳荣 -24% -12% -1% 11% 22% 34% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 医药生物 沪深300 | SAC 执证号：S0260516090004 | | | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BOR756 | | | 021-38003671 | | | luojiarong@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李安飞 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520100005 | | | 021-38003669 | | | lianfei@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，李安 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 保险Ⅱ行业 12 月保费点评-25 年寿险行业景气度有望 | 保险Ⅱ行业:预定利率动态调 | 2025-01-11 | | --- | --- | | 整机制出台，降低利差损风 | | | 险 | | | 保险Ⅱ行业:11 月行业保费点 | 2024-12-27 | | 评-人身险行业转战开门红， | | | 财险保费增速小幅走扩 | | | 保险Ⅱ行业:"偿二代"过渡 | 2024-12-22 | | 期延长，缓解偿付能力压力 | | 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 5 [Table_Contacts] 上市险企寿险单月保费增速分化明显，预计主因全年收官和开门红节 奏的差异。据月度保费公告数据显示，1-12 月的平安/国寿/新华/太保 寿险原保费同比增速分别为 7.6%/4.7%/2.8%/2.4%，较 1-11 月的 8.5%/4.8%/2.1%/2.2%有所分化，2024 年全年实现了较好的正增长， 其中太保和新华 12 月单月保费增速较高，分别为+8.9%、19.1%，推 动累计保费增速小幅走扩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports, with a current price of HKD 78.10 and a fair value of HKD 93.67 [5]. Core Views - Anta Sports has demonstrated high operational quality in Q4, with Fila's sales recovery exceeding expectations. The main brand's revenue growth is driven by e-commerce channels and store renovations, maintaining a healthy inventory turnover ratio [8]. - The multi-brand strategy of Anta Group is showing robust development, with strong performance from brands like Descente and Kolon, indicating strong consumer purchasing power in the outdoor market [8]. - The earnings forecast for Anta Sports predicts EPS of RMB 4.70, RMB 4.81, and RMB 5.38 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a PE valuation of 18 times for 2025, leading to a fair value of HKD 93.67 per share [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 53,651 million in 2022 to RMB 81,594 million in 2026, with growth rates of 8.8%, 16.2%, 8.1%, 9.7%, and 10.4% respectively [4][10]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 12,483 million in 2022 to RMB 26,330 million in 2026 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from RMB 7,590 million in 2022 to RMB 15,187 million in 2026, with growth rates of -1.68%, 34.86%, 29.60%, 2.26%, and 11.94% [4][10]. - The report indicates a stable gross margin, with projections of 58.2% in 2022 and increasing to 62.9% by 2026 [10]. Operational Insights - The main brand's operational quality is expected to remain stable, with online discounts maintained and a healthy inventory turnover ratio [8]. - The report highlights the successful adjustment of Fila's brand positioning, contributing to overall brand growth and maintaining healthy operational quality [8]. Market Position - Anta Sports is positioned to benefit from its strong channel management capabilities and cost control, which are expected to support steady growth in an uncertain retail environment [8].

[Table_Page] 公告点评|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 华立科技（301011.SZ） 收入及利润均超预期，关注 IP 业务拓展 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 盈利预测： | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 605 | 816 | 1008 | 1154 | 1290 | | 增长率（ % ） | -3.5% | 35.0% | 23.4% | 14.6% | 11.8% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 119 | 193 | 201 | 212 | 245 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -71 | 52 | 85 | 108 | 140 | | 增长率（ % ） | -235.6% | 173.0% | 64.5% | 26.1% | 30.3% | | EPS（元/股） | -0.49 | 0.35 | 0.58 | 0.73 | 0.96 | ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业：AI 行业周报 OpenAI Tasks 新功能诞生， AI Agent 迈向新阶段 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Author] 分析师： 旷实 SAC 执证号：S0260517030002 SFC CE No. BNV294 010-59136610 kuangshi@gf.com.cn 分析师： 叶敏婷 SAC 执证号：S0260519110001 021-38003665 yeminting@gf.com.cn 分析师： 罗悦纯 SAC 执证号：S0260524120001 luoyuechun@gf.com.cn 请注意，叶敏婷,罗悦纯并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员 -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 传媒 沪深300 会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | 传媒行业：AI 行业周报:CES | 2025-01-10 | | --- | --- | | 2025 发布多款 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 5.68 HKD and a fair value of 6.71 HKD [7]. Core Insights - The main brand of the company is experiencing steady growth, with a healthy recovery in inventory levels. In Q4 2024, the main brand's total channel revenue is expected to grow at a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with retail discounts improving to a level of 70-75% [7]. - The subsidiary brand, Saucony, continues to show strong growth momentum, with total channel revenue in Q4 2024 expected to increase by approximately 50%, surpassing the previous guidance of over 60% for the entire year [7]. - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 1.26 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.51 billion CNY respectively, and maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, leading to a fair value estimate of 6.71 HKD per share [7]. Financial Summary - The company's main revenue for 2023 is reported at 12,930 million CNY, with a growth rate of 29.1%. The EBITDA is projected to be 1,515 million CNY, and the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 922 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 1.5% [6]. - For the years 2024 to 2026, the main revenue is expected to be 14,396 million CNY, 15,077 million CNY, and 16,462 million CNY respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 0.4%, 4.7%, and 9.2% [6]. - The report indicates that the company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.0%, 11.6%, 13.1%, 13.5%, and 13.8% from 2022 to 2026 [6].

[Table_Title] 批零社服行业 12 月社零同比+3.7%，延续温和复苏 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | | | 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-17 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]嵇文欣 SAC 执证号：S0260520050001 SFC CE No. AOB364 -24% -12% -1% 11% 22% 34% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 商贸零售 沪深300 | 021-38003653 | | --- | jiwenxin@gf.com.cn [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 海外高端品牌观察:2024 年全 | 2024-12-31 | | --- | --- | | 球奢侈品市场普遍承压，日 | | | 本、南欧、美国表现较好 | | | 批零社服行业:11 月社零同比 | 2024-12-16 | | +3.0%，重 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|纺织服饰 2025 年 1 月 17 日 证券研究报告 1 / 13 ⚫ 2024 年四季度业绩前瞻：上游纺织制造板块以出口业务为主，2024Q4，板块内多数公司虽然上年同期基数恢 复正常，但是下游需求稳定，接单形势保持良好，2025 年春节提前，也使得部分订单提前至 2024Q4，另外人 民币汇率变化也带来一定程度利好，因此预计业绩有望保持稳健增长。下游服装家纺板块以内销业务为主， 2024Q4，虽然暖冬对服装家纺消费构成一定扰动，但是伴随国内政策转向，消费市场略有回暖，加之部分品类 如家纺、童装受益政府补贴，板块内多数公司业绩预计较 2024Q3 有所改善，其中休闲装及童装子行业龙头公 司、专业运动及运动休闲子行业龙头公司、家纺子行业龙头公司预计业绩领跑行业。 ⚫ 2024 年四季度纺织品出口金额持续向好，服装出口金额恢复增长，2024 年四季度服装家纺社零回暖。据 wind， 2024 年纺织品出口金额（美元计）同比+5.7%，2024 年一季度、二季度、三季度、四季度分别同比+2.6%、 +3.9%、+2.1%、+14.32%；2024 年服装出口金额（美元计） ...

金融工程|定期报告 2025年1月19日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程:融资余额增加,ETF资 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金流入 | | | | | | | A 股量化择时研究报告 | | | | | | | 市场回顾(本期是指2025年1月13日—2025年1月17日) | | | | | | | 中证 结构表现 | 沪深 | 中证 | 中证 | 中证 | 国证 | | 100 (涨幅) | 300 | 500 | 800 | 1000 | 2000 | | 1.67% | 2.14% | 4.06% | 2.62% | 5.35% | 5.46% | | 强度前五:社会服务、传媒、计算机、通信、机械设备。 行业表现 | | | | | | | 强度后五:家用电器、银行、公用事业、煤炭、食品饮料。 | | | | | | | 市场估值 | | | | | | | 分析师: | 安宁宁 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号: S0260512020003 | | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of HKD 15.48 and a target value of HKD 19.11 [5]. Core Views - The company has partnered with the Chinese Olympic Committee, which is expected to enhance its brand value. It will provide official sportswear for major events from 2025 to 2028, including the Winter Olympics and Asian Games [10]. - The company is anticipated to achieve stable growth in 2025, with improvements in discount and gross margin. Despite increased marketing expenses, the net profit margin is expected to remain above 10% [10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, particularly through direct sales, and is expected to launch more cost-effective products in response to consumer trends [10]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is CNY 30.7 billion, CNY 30.4 billion, and CNY 33.7 billion, respectively. The report assigns a PE ratio of 15 for 2025, leading to a target value of HKD 19.11 per share [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 25.803 billion in 2022 to CNY 30.306 billion in 2026, with a growth rate of 14.3% in 2022, slowing to 6.0% by 2026 [4][14]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from CNY 5.162 billion in 2022 to CNY 6.906 billion in 2026, with a notable dip in 2023 [4][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline from CNY 4.064 billion in 2022 to CNY 3.374 billion in 2026, reflecting a challenging market environment [4][14]. - The company's EPS is projected to decrease from CNY 1.54 in 2022 to CNY 1.31 in 2026, indicating a potential decline in profitability [4][14]. Key Financial Ratios - The report highlights a decrease in ROE from 16.7% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2025, suggesting a decline in return on equity [13]. - The net profit margin is expected to decrease from 15.7% in 2022 to 11.1% in 2026, indicating potential profitability challenges [13]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is projected to improve from 27.7% in 2022 to 23.8% in 2026, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [13].