Global Economic Focus - The 2026 World Economic Forum highlighted geopolitical economic risks as the primary concern, with multilateralism declining and global trade facing severe disruptions[8] - Countries are increasingly seeking strategic autonomy in energy, food, and critical minerals, as emphasized by leaders like Canadian Prime Minister Carney[9] - Investment in key resources and industries is rising, with Canada planning $1 trillion in sectors like energy and AI, while Germany focuses on renewable energy and advanced manufacturing[10] Market Performance Insights - Global asset performance remains chaotic, with non-economic factors dominating market dynamics; gold and silver show strength while U.S. stocks underperform[13] - The S&P 500 fear and greed index rose to 50, indicating a shift in market sentiment despite ongoing volatility[14] - A-share market saw a mild increase of 1.81%, with significant sectoral divergence; nearly 80% of industries recorded gains, led by materials and energy[21] Inflation and Economic Indicators - January's actual and nominal GDP growth is projected at 4.86% and 4.35%, respectively, amid fluctuating production rates and improving PPI[13] - The CPI is under pressure from high base effects, but seasonal price increases in pork and oil are creating a counterbalance[13] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have decreased, with a 14.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut by March[19] - China's fiscal policy is set to become more proactive in 2026, focusing on enhancing total volume and structural efficiency[13] Risk Factors - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected pressures in the domestic real estate market[13]

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|电子 2026 年 1 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] AI 的 Memory 时刻 4 | | | AI DRAM | | 需求旺盛，行业供需紧张有望延续 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tabl 分析师： | 王亮 | 分析师： 耿正 | | 分析师： 焦鼎 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260519060001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520090002 | SAC 执证号：S0260522120003 | | | SFC CE.no: BFS478 | | | | | | 021-38003658 | | 021-38003660 | 021-38003658 | | | gfwangliang@gf.com.cn | | gengzheng@gf.com.cn | jiaoding@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 张大伟 | | | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050001 | | | | | | 021-38003657 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [31]. Core Insights - The demand for CPU is increasing due to AI agents, driven by three main factors: increased application call volume, orchestration becoming a bottleneck, and elevated overhead from sandbox isolation [2][11]. - The CPU ratio is expected to rise, with projections indicating that by Q2 2026, the CPU ratio per MW of GPU will increase from below 10% to 15% [2][17]. - There is significant growth potential in memory modules and interface chips, with a shift from traditional RDIMM to MRDIMM expected to enhance performance and capacity [2][19]. - The value of AI memory is transitioning from a cost item to an asset item, highlighting the increasing importance of related upstream infrastructure [2][25]. Summary by Sections AI Agent's Impact on CPU Demand - AI agents are driving a substantial increase in CPU demand due to higher application call volumes, orchestration challenges, and increased overhead from sandboxing [2][11]. Increasing CPU Ratio - Current estimates suggest that the CPU ratio per MW of GPU will rise to 15% by Q2 2026, with significant implications for the overall demand for CPUs in AI clusters [2][17]. Expanding Memory and Interface Chip Market - The transition to MRDIMM solutions is expected to significantly enhance bandwidth and capacity, creating opportunities in the memory and interface chip markets [2][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of AI memory as a foundational capability for AI applications, recommending a focus on key beneficiaries within the industry chain [2][25].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the textile and apparel industry, indicating an expectation that stock performance will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [46]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in FY2026Q1, with revenue reaching 102.77 billion JPY, a year-on-year increase of 14.81%, driven by the opening of flagship UNIQLO stores and strategic information dissemination [3][4]. - Gross margin for FY2026Q1 was 55.24%, up by 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, while operating profit increased by 33.87% to 21.09 billion JPY [3][4]. - The company expects record revenue and profit for FY2026, projecting total revenue of 380.0 billion JPY (up 11.7% year-on-year) and net profit of 45.0 billion JPY (up 3.9% year-on-year) [3][4]. Revenue Breakdown - UNIQLO brand revenue for FY2026Q1 was 90.29 billion JPY, a 17.51% increase year-on-year, accounting for 87.86% of total revenue [3][4]. - Revenue by region for UNIQLO in FY2026Q1: - Japan: 29.91 billion JPY, up 12.18% - Greater China: 19.12 billion JPY, up 7.03% - Other Asia and Oceania: 18.71 billion JPY, up 22.15% - North America: 8.87 billion JPY, up 30.41% - Europe: 13.70 billion JPY, up 34.26% [3][4]. Store Count and Financial Position - As of the end of the reporting period, the total number of stores reached 3,594, a decrease of 68 stores year-on-year [3][4]. - Cash and cash equivalents (excluding short-term investments) at the end of FY2026Q1 were 92.36 billion JPY, down 22.95% year-on-year [3][4]. Operational Metrics - Accounts receivable turnover days for FY2026Q1 were 19.42 days, an increase of 0.89 days year-on-year [3][4]. - Inventory turnover days for FY2025Q1 were 124.32 days, a decrease of 5.29 days year-on-year [3][4].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing prosperity in the commercial aerospace and military sectors, highlighting opportunities in overseas markets and the importance of technological advancements in the industry [2][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing upward momentum, driven by SpaceX's advancements in reusable rocket technology, which could reduce space access costs by 100 times [13] - The military aviation sector is expected to benefit from increased demand for large aircraft and military trade, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [14] - The report identifies a focus on supply chain reforms and the integration of AI technologies as key trends shaping the future of the defense and aerospace industries [15] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies that align with the "S-curve" evolution, focusing on supply chain reforms and automation, including firms like航发动力 (Aero Engine Corporation) and 中航沈飞 (AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation) [15] - Companies positioned for expansion in military trade and civil aviation, such as 国睿科技 (Guorui Technology) and 中国动力 (China Power), are highlighted for their growth potential [15] - Emerging industries like commercial aerospace, AI, and quantum computing are also recommended, with firms like 睿创微纳 (Ruichuang Micro-Nano) and 菲利华 (Feilihua) noted for their innovative capabilities [15] Group 3: Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - 航发动力 (Aero Engine Corporation) is projected to have a 2025E EPS of 0.22 CNY, with a PE ratio of 216.82 for 2025 [6] - 中航高科 (AVIC High-tech) is expected to achieve a 2025E EPS of 0.90 CNY, with a PE ratio of 29.16 for 2025 [6] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating growth in EPS and improvements in PE ratios across the sector, reflecting a positive outlook for the defense and aerospace industries [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Beike (BEKE), with a target price of HKD 58.37 for the Hong Kong stock and USD 22.45 for the US stock based on a 18x adjusted PE for 2026 [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the second-hand housing market is stabilizing, which positively impacts Beike's performance. In January 2026, the number of second-hand housing transactions in 79 cities increased by 33% year-on-year, indicating a potential rebound in the market [9][15]. - Beike's market share remains stable and is expected to grow, with a market share of 32% in 2025, up 1 percentage point from 2024. The company is well-positioned to benefit from market recovery in core cities [9][54]. - The report provides a sensitivity analysis for Beike's performance under different market scenarios for 2026, indicating a high confidence in earnings recovery driven by cost reduction and market improvement [9][64]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Stability and Performance Impact - The total residential transaction volume in 2025 was 1.4 billion square meters, down 5% year-on-year, but showed signs of stabilization when excluding policy effects from Q4 2024. The second-hand market accounted for 47% of this volume, marking a continuous increase over four years [13][14]. - In early 2026, the annualized second-hand transaction volume is projected to be 860 million square meters, a 24% increase from 2025, suggesting a strong start to the year [15][18]. 2. Core Business Resilience and Market Share Growth - Beike's estimated gross transaction value (GTV) for 2025 is projected at RMB 2.1 trillion, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, with Q4 2025 GTV expected to be RMB 432.3 billion, down 42% [20][29]. - The company has a long-term strategy focused on enhancing operational capabilities, with a significant portion of GTV (over 80%) coming from first and second-tier cities, which are expected to show market elasticity during recovery phases [39][42]. - Beike's market share in 2025 is estimated at 32%, with a stable growth trajectory despite market challenges, indicating strong defensive capabilities [54][62]. 3. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report outlines three scenarios for Beike's earnings in 2026: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic, with expected adjusted net profits of RMB 87 billion, RMB 73 billion, and RMB 60 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 59%, 33%, and 10% [67][71]. - The valuation is based on a general cash flow approach and adjusted PE method, with a target price reflecting the company's potential in a recovering market [9][64].

Core Insights - The report indicates a rebound in pig prices, with the average price for lean pigs at 13.09 CNY/kg as of January 23, reflecting a 4.8% week-on-week increase, although down 17.6% year-on-year. The industry is returning to profitability, with self-breeding operations reportedly earning about 40 CNY per head [2][10] - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of piglets, which rose to 353 CNY/head, a 7% increase week-on-week, suggesting a positive outlook among farmers for pig prices in the second half of the year [2][10] - The report recommends major breeding companies such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential in smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group [2][10] Livestock Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is reported at 3.7 CNY/jin, down 1.3% week-on-week, with supply concerns due to avian influenza affecting imports from France [2][10] - The dairy sector shows a slight increase in fresh milk prices to 3.03 CNY/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week, while some regions report prices rebounding to 3.3-3.4 CNY/kg [2][11] - The report notes that the supply of beef is expected to tighten due to new import tariffs, which may lead to increased domestic beef prices and improved earnings for companies like Yurun Food and Modern Farming [2][11] Feed and Animal Health - The report indicates a continued upward trend in aquaculture prices, driven by supply-demand imbalances and seasonal factors, which may benefit feed demand in the short term [2][12] - The feed industry remains competitive, with leading companies expected to gain market share due to their comprehensive advantages [2][12] - The report suggests that leading animal health companies are expanding into pet healthcare, with growth potential in pet vaccines and pharmaceuticals [2][12] Agricultural Sector Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 1 percentage point, with the sector rising by 0.4% while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.6% [2][18] - Sub-sectors such as planting, agricultural processing, and fisheries showed notable gains, with increases of 4.1%, 4.0%, and 2.9% respectively [2][18] Agricultural Product Prices - The report tracks significant price movements in agricultural products, noting a 4.8% increase in pig prices and a 1.3% decrease in chicken prices [2][20] - The report also highlights the current prices of corn at 2375 CNY/ton, up 0.5% week-on-week, and soybean meal at 3194 CNY/ton, down 0.1% [2][44][53] - The report indicates that the price of wheat has also increased by 0.5% to 2527 CNY/ton [2][55]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the space photovoltaic sector, driven by the increasing demand for UTG glass, which is essential for flexible solar wings in low-orbit satellites. SpaceX and Tesla plan to build a total of 200GW photovoltaic capacity in the U.S. over the next three years, indicating a robust market outlook for UTG glass [13][14][15]. - Intel's announcement of mass production of semiconductor glass substrates marks a major breakthrough in the semiconductor packaging field, enhancing the stability and reliability of AI processors. This development is expected to accelerate the adoption of glass substrates across the industry [16][17][18]. - The supply-demand tension in PCB materials, particularly CCL, has led to a price increase of over 30% starting March 2026, driven by rising raw material costs and supply chain constraints. This trend is expected to impact the profitability of companies in the CCL supply chain [19][20][21]. Group 2 - The construction materials industry is showing signs of stabilization, with a focus on leading companies that exhibit strong operational resilience. The demand for consumer building materials is expected to recover, supported by the renovation of existing properties and the resilience of leading firms [32][33]. - The cement market remains stable, with prices holding steady. The industry's valuation is at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities in leading companies such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [34]. - The glass market is characterized by stable prices for float glass and strong demand for photovoltaic glass. Leading glass companies are expected to maintain their profitability due to their competitive advantages and low valuations [37].

Core Insights - The report indicates a sustained optimistic sentiment in the real estate sector, suggesting that the market performance is likely to continue positively throughout the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Environment - Central policies have seen few new measures, maintaining a loose stance towards the real estate sector. Recent actions include the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing and a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][16]. - Local policies focus on long-term strategies in major cities, with initiatives aimed at urban renewal and optimizing land use policies [5][16]. Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in the first 22 days of January, while second-hand home transactions have shown a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5][9]. - The number of second-hand home subscriptions has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 59.8% in the same period [5][9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The new housing supply is in a seasonal downturn, with a 12% decrease in new home launches week-on-week. However, the transaction volume slightly exceeds the supply, indicating a market adjustment [5][9]. - The land supply and transaction scale have contracted sharply, with a 67% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value [5][9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.2% increase in the SW real estate index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.8 percentage points [5][9]. - Major real estate companies have experienced notable stock price increases, with leading firms like Greentown and China Merchants Shekou seeing significant gains [5][9]. Group 5: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector has seen a 2.29% increase in the comprehensive return index, with 68 out of 78 REITs reporting gains this week [5][9].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the internet media sector, particularly driven by AI advancements and strong performance in gaming and e-commerce segments [2][9][12] - It highlights the significant growth of Kuaishou's AI product, Keling, which has surpassed 12 million MAU and is expected to generate $140 million in revenue for 2025, exceeding initial targets [10][12] - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong product pipelines and innovative capabilities, particularly in gaming and AI applications [16][19] Group 1: Internet Sector - E-commerce: Continuous attention is recommended on AI narratives influencing stock prices, with Alibaba's recent developments expected to catalyze further stock performance [12][13] - Social Entertainment Media: Bilibili and Tencent are noted for their strong advertising momentum, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving and new game releases expected to enhance performance [13][16] - Internet Healthcare: JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, leading to robust revenue and profit growth [13][19] Group 2: Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, with recommendations for leading companies like Tencent and NetEase, as well as promising titles from Century Huatong and Giant Network [16][18] - The report highlights the success of Giant Network's game "Supernatural Action Group," which has seen a rise in rankings and is expected to perform well during the upcoming Spring Festival [10][16] Group 3: AI Developments - Recent advancements in AI models and applications are noted, with significant releases from major players like Baidu and Tencent, indicating a competitive landscape in AI technology [11][19] - The report suggests monitoring AI applications in various sectors, including e-commerce, gaming, and healthcare, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their innovative capabilities [19][20] Group 4: Media and Advertising - The report discusses the impact of asset impairment on Focus Media, predicting a reduction in net profit for Q4 2025 but an increase in Q1 2026, indicating a one-time effect on performance [18] - It also highlights the potential for growth in the advertising sector, driven by increased investment from internet advertisers and upcoming major events that may boost advertising spending [18][19] Group 5: Long Video and Music Streaming - The long video sector is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in drama approvals and the release of quality content expected to enhance performance for platforms like iQIYI and Mango TV [15][16] - In music streaming, Tencent Music and NetEase Music are noted for their stable performance, despite concerns over competition, with a focus on the importance of quality content in driving subscriptions [15][16]