Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the environmental sector, including Lianmei Holdings, Shanggou Environmental, Longkun Technology, Weiming Environmental, Hanlan Environment, Dadi Ocean, Shanghai Industrial Holdings, and Conch Venture [1]. Core Insights - The transition from "energy consumption dual control" to "carbon emission dual control" is emphasized, with a focus on circular reduction and green energy industries. The year 2026 marks the first year of full transition to carbon emission dual control, with significant efforts expected in carbon reduction [1][11]. - The report highlights the impact of the EU carbon tariff, which will officially be implemented on January 1, 2026, significantly increasing the cost of exports from China to the EU. Current carbon prices in the EU are around 80-90 euros per ton, compared to approximately 81 yuan per ton in China [1][16]. - Companies involved in the circular economy, such as those in recycling and green energy, are recommended for investment due to their potential to reduce carbon emissions and adapt to new regulations [1][17]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Carbon Emission Dual Control Implementation - The "14th Five-Year Plan" shifts focus to carbon emission control, emphasizing the need for a new energy system and the integration of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and green growth [11][12]. Section 2: Fund Holdings in Environmental Stocks - As of Q4 2025, the fund allocation for environmental stocks is only 0.23%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend since the lows of 2020 [21][26]. Section 3: Biodiesel Market Insights - The price of UCO (Used Cooking Oil), a key raw material for biodiesel, has increased by 7.6% to $1,060 per ton, while SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices have decreased slightly but remain high at $2,150 per ton [31][35]. Section 4: Policy and Event Tracking in the Dual Carbon Field - Recent policies emphasize the construction of zero-carbon factories and the promotion of green development, with specific targets set for various industries by 2030 [39][40]. Section 5: Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key companies, including earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and return on equity (ROE), indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [4].

Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the Wind All A Index increased by 27.6% compared to the last trading day of 2024[3] - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (94.7%), electronics (47.9%), and communications (84.8%)[3] - The profit growth rate for major industrial enterprises in 2025 was 0.1% year-on-year from January to November[4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The leading industries in profit growth from January to November 2025 were non-ferrous mining (32.3%) and transportation equipment (27.8%)[5] - Significant profit declines were observed in coal (-47.3%) and oil and gas extraction (-13.6%) sectors[5] - The PPI (Producer Price Index) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in 2025, with traditional raw material industries contributing 89% to this decline[8] Group 3: Demand and Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment fell by 3.8% year-on-year in 2025, while equipment investment rose by 11.8%[8] - The demand side was primarily driven by high-end product exports and domestic policy incentives[6] - The economic "supply-demand ratio" rose to 5.6 in 2025, indicating a supply surplus[14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The 2026 policy focus is on addressing demand shortfalls, with expectations for fixed asset investment recovery to around 3.8%[13] - The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026, slightly lower than 2025's 3.2%[16] - The emphasis on enhancing service consumption and traditional industries is expected to drive economic recovery in 2026[20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in insurance holdings, with public fund holdings in the non-bank financial sector rising from 1.49% in Q3 2025 to 2.48% in Q4 2025, driven by market style rebalancing and marginal support from the sector's fundamentals [24][34] - The report notes that despite the ongoing pursuit of high-elasticity technology sectors, the non-bank financial sector is at a historical low valuation, with strong performance in the insurance sector and increased trading volumes in brokerage firms, indicating fundamental resilience [24][34] - The report suggests that the public fund holdings in the securities sector increased slightly from 0.63% in Q3 2025 to 0.71% in Q4 2025, reflecting improved performance trends and the appeal of low valuations [33] Summary by Sections New Public Fund Issuance - In Q4 2025, the number of newly issued funds remained stable at approximately 477, with a year-on-year increase of 81% compared to 264 in Q4 2024, while the issuance volume decreased by 15.19% year-on-year [12][19] - The share of newly issued equity funds decreased from 41% in the previous quarter to 32%, while mixed fund shares increased from 15% to 19% [12] Non-Bank Financial Fund Holdings - Public fund holdings in the non-bank financial sector increased, with the total market capitalization share rising to 2.48% in Q4 2025 [24] - The report attributes this increase to a shift in funds from crowded technology sectors to undervalued defensive sectors, alongside a recovery in northbound capital allocations [24] Major Non-Bank Companies' Holdings - The report indicates that major non-bank companies saw slight increases in public fund holdings, with China Ping An leading at 1.11% and China Pacific Insurance at 0.35% [41] - The report recommends focusing on key companies such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Ping An for potential investment opportunities [24][41]

证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 分众传媒（002027.SZ） 数禾一次性影响落地，高分红+强韧性逻辑不变 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Page] 公告点评|广告营销 | Table_Invest] [公司评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 7.44 元 | | 合理价值 | 9.45 元 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-25 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 01/25 03/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 分众传媒 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]旷实 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030002 | | | SFC CE No. BNV294 | | | 010-59136610 | | | kuangshi@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 廖志国 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525060001 | | | 021-3 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the automotive sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [5][22]. Core Insights - The change in subsidy policies has led to the disappearance of the tail effect in Q4 2025, resulting in a reduction of demand overdraw for 2026. In December 2025, the number of insured vehicles was 2.278 million, down 16.4% year-on-year but up 13.6% month-on-month. The total number of insured vehicles for the year reached 23.047 million, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rising to 54.0%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][7][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Subsidy Policies - The report highlights that the changes in subsidy policies have caused consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to a decrease in demand overdraw for 2026. The expectation is that as replacement subsidy application channels open, pent-up demand will materialize, and the domestic terminal market will trend towards "price increase and stable volume" [4][7]. 2. PHEV Market Share Tracking - The focus is on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as the "mid-level assisted driving equity" leads to share differentiation. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring configuration adjustments and terminal discount changes to understand further market share differentiation [9][16]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The report notes that the passenger vehicle inventory saw a slight reduction in December 2025, with an estimated 1.5 million vehicles in demand waiting to be fulfilled. The overall industry theme for 2025 was "emerging from deflation," with a judgment of "stable volume and slow price increase" being validated. The outlook for 2026 remains "price increase and stable volume," differing from market consensus due to regulatory changes and risk-return assessments [16][17]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain. Right-side targets include Geely, BYD, and others, while left-side targets include Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile. In the commercial vehicle chain, recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [17].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the State Grid's capital expenditure during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a projected investment of approximately 4 trillion yuan during the "15th Five-Year Plan," representing a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [15][18][21] - The report recommends focusing on power engineering companies, specifically China Electric Power Construction, China Huadian Engineering, and China Energy Engineering, which are well-positioned to benefit from the increased capital expenditure [21][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with strong fundamentals and low valuations based on ROE and valuation percentiles, recommending firms such as China Chemical, China National Materials, and Donghua Technology [23][24] Group 2 - Weekly tracking indicates steady progress in coal chemical projects, with significant contract awards for the coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang, totaling over 15 billion yuan [28][29] - The hydrogen energy sector is gaining momentum, with government initiatives promoting zero-carbon factory construction and the launch of major projects like the Baowu Green Hydrogen Industrial Park, which has a total investment of 110.9 billion yuan [31][32] - The report notes a slight decline in steel prices, with average prices for medium-thick plates and rebar decreasing by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a stable but low price environment [31]

Group 1 - Since September 2024, the proportion of southbound capital in transaction volume has rapidly increased to 20%-30%, nearly doubling compared to before 2024, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [3][8] - Historical reviews of two rounds of competition for pricing power in the Hong Kong stock market occurred in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021, typically initiated by policy optimizations and inflows of incremental capital [15][28] - The current southbound capital inflow is characterized by a higher proportion of medium to long-term funds, with insurance capital making 41 stakes in 2025, 35 of which were in H-shares, marking a record high in the past decade [3][31] Group 2 - The industries where southbound capital and Chinese capital have pricing power include semiconductors and dividend-paying sectors, while industries lacking pricing power include internet, hardware, software services, home appliances, and media [3][36] - The top five industries by southbound capital holdings include coal (41.8%), semiconductors (32.7%), environmental protection (24.5%), oil and petrochemicals (24.1%), and pharmaceutical biology (20.5%) [37] - The active management public funds have a low preference for Hong Kong stocks, with significant holdings concentrated in AI-related CSP giants, electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [46] Group 3 - The current sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has fully reflected negative factors such as US-China trade friction and the high unlock peak at the end of last year, suggesting potential upward investment opportunities if liquidity pressure eases [53][54] - The spring rally in the Hong Kong stock market has a high probability of success, with southbound capital and foreign capital expected to net inflow at the beginning of the year, driven by the demand for core Chinese assets [53][54] - The pricing power of southbound capital is rapidly increasing, with expectations of a potential upward beta in the Hong Kong stock market at the beginning of the year [3][53]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector's heavy stockholding ratio continues to decline, with a slight recovery in the allocation of consumer goods [6][14] - The white liquor sector has seen a slight decrease in stockholding ratios, while consumer goods have shown some recovery [6][31] - The report highlights a potential for recovery in the white liquor sector after a four-year adjustment period, with expectations for both valuation and performance to stabilize [6][31] Summary by Sections 1. Fund Holding Overview - As of Q4 2025, the food and beverage sector's heavy stockholding ratio is 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from Q2 2025, with a total market value of 43.998 billion CNY [14][21] - The allocation of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector has decreased to 32.3%, while passive funds have increased to 63.3% [21][22] 2. Sub-industry Holding Analysis (1) White Liquor Sector - The heavy stockholding ratio for white liquor has decreased to 5.1%, with an allocation of +2.7 percentage points [31][33] - Active equity funds' heavy stockholding ratio for white liquor is 2.9%, down 0.3 percentage points [31][33] (2) Consumer Goods - The heavy stockholding ratio for consumer goods has increased to 0.97%, but remains in a low allocation state [47][51] - Key sub-sectors such as dairy and seasoning products have shown a recovery in stockholding ratios [47][51] 3. Individual Stock Analysis - Among the top 20 heavy stocks, only Kweichow Moutai remains in the food and beverage sector, dropping from second to fourth place [6][31] - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yili [6][31] 4. Sector Overview - The report indicates that the food and beverage sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with expectations for moderate price increases in 2026 [6][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of new products and channels for individual stock performance [6][31]

[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|软件与服务 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发计算机&海外】金山云（03896.HK） 前瞻：预计25Q4 AI云高增长，26年延续高资本开支 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测：备注：报告中汇率为 1 港元=0.893 人民币；货币若无特别说明均为人民币。 | [Table_ 单位:Finance] 人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 7,047 | 7,785 | 9,481 | 12,215 | 14,687 | | 增长率 （ % ） | -13.8% | 10.5% | 21.8% | 28.8% | 20.2% | | 经调整EBITDA（百万元） | -265 | 639 | 2,292 | 4,072 | 5,657 | | 经调整净利润（百万元） | -1,291 | -825 | -567 | -519 | -387 | | EPS（元/股） | -0.61 ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to analyze price-volume data and predict future prices. The model standardizes price-volume data into graphical representations and maps learned features to industry theme indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme Index, and CSI Nonferrous Metals Index[78][80][81] - The construction process of the CNN model involves transforming individual stock price-volume data within a specific window into standardized graphical charts. These charts are then input into the CNN for feature extraction and prediction modeling. The learned features are subsequently applied to identify and allocate industry themes[78][80] - The evaluation of the CNN model highlights its ability to capture complex patterns in price-volume data and effectively map these patterns to industry themes. This approach provides a novel perspective for quantitative investment strategies[78][81] - Backtesting results indicate that the CNN model's latest configuration suggests a focus on themes such as petrochemicals, chemicals, machine tools, semiconductors, and nonferrous metals. Specific indices include the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme Index, and CSI Nonferrous Metals Index[80][81]