[Table_Page] 公告点评|媒体Ⅱ | [Table_ 单位：人民币 | Finance] | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | | | 8,436 | 11,239 | 12,391 | 11,514 | 13,914 | | 增长率 | （ % | ） | 25.3% | 33.2% | 10.2% | -7.1% | 20.8% | | 增长率 （ | % | ） | 25.3% | 33.2% | 10.2% | -7.1% | 20.8% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EBITDA（百万元） | | | 1,268 | 2,825 | 4,577 | 4,740 | 5,506 | | NonGaap归母净利润 （百万元） | | | 2,797 | 4,020 | 4,767 | 4,901 | 5,241 | | 增长率 （ | % | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2]. Core Insights - The large-scale application of AI agents is expected to drive the demand for CPUs and foundational software tools, as AI agents require substantial computational resources for their operations [6][19]. - The report highlights that the demand for CPUs is anticipated to grow due to the CPU-intensive nature of tasks performed by AI agents, which cannot be easily replaced by GPUs [19][22]. - The report suggests that the current tight capacity in wafer fabs is leading to an increase in CPU prices, with Intel's LGA1700 products experiencing a price rise of 23% from October 2025 to January 2026 [22]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a dual trend of quantity expansion and performance upgrades in CPUs driven by the penetration of AI agents across various industries [19][22]. - Key companies to watch include domestic CPU leaders and IT firms such as StarRing Technology and Deepin Technology, which are expected to benefit from this trend [26][29]. Summary by Sections AI Agent and Infrastructure Demand - AI agents rely on runtime environments that provide the necessary tools and resources for their operations, which include task planning, data processing, and tool invocation [9]. - Virtual machines play a crucial role in determining the hardware resources available to AI agents, as they manage the allocation and scheduling of CPU and memory resources [11][16]. CPU Market Dynamics - The report notes that the configuration of server CPUs is evolving from traditional 8-16 cores to 32-64 cores and higher, indicating a shift towards more powerful processing capabilities [19]. - The report also mentions that the growth in storage demand is impacting CPU production capacity, further tightening the supply of CPUs [22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in the software and hardware infrastructure related to AI, including: 1. AI foundational software tools: StarRing Technology, Paradigm Intelligence 2. Virtual machines: Deepin Technology, UCloud 3. CPUs: China Great Wall [26][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 10.42 CNY and a reasonable value of 14.72 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company continues to experience high profit growth, with a reported operating income growth of 10.48% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 8.08% year-on-year for the year 2025 [8]. - The total assets of the company increased by 16.6% year-on-year, surpassing 3 trillion CNY, with both deposits and loans maintaining double-digit growth [8]. - The company has a strong asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83% and a provision coverage ratio of 313.31% [8]. - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio remains stable at 9.31% [8]. - A mid-term dividend of 0.3062 CNY per share was distributed, with a payout ratio of 30% based on the net profit for the first half of 2025 [8]. - The forecasted net profit growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are 7.53% and 7.48%, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.80 CNY and 1.94 CNY per share [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The operating income for 2025 is projected to grow by 10.48% year-on-year, with a significant increase in interest income by 31.1% [8]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to reach 18.63 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 8.08% year-on-year [8]. Asset Quality - The company maintains a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83%, consistent with the previous quarter, and a provision coverage ratio of 313.31% [8]. - The company emphasizes optimizing risk management and enhancing value creation [8]. Capital Adequacy - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio is reported at 9.31%, showing stability compared to the beginning of the year [8]. Dividend Policy - A mid-term dividend of 0.3062 CNY per share was declared, with an expected total payout of 37.86 billion CNY, representing a 30% payout ratio based on the net profit for the first half of 2025 [8]. Earnings Forecast - The expected net profit growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are 7.53% and 7.48%, with corresponding EPS of 1.80 CNY and 1.94 CNY per share [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The public fund allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has decreased by 0.15 percentage points, currently at a low allocation level of approximately 1.01%, which is 0.38 percentage points below the standard allocation ratio of 1.39% [15][21] - The report highlights a continued decline in holdings across various sub-sectors, with the feed sector experiencing the most significant drop of 0.14 percentage points [21] - Major public fund holdings are concentrated in leading companies within the livestock breeding industry and related agricultural sectors, with notable stocks including Muyuan Foods (0.28%), Wens Foodstuffs (0.07%), and others [22][24] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Allocation - The public fund allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is approximately 1.01%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a low allocation level compared to the standard ratio of 1.39% [15] 2. Sub-sector Holdings - The holdings in the feed and breeding sectors have both decreased, with the feed sector at 0.47% (down 0.14 percentage points) and the breeding sector at 0.43% (down 0.01 percentage points) [21] 3. Major Holdings - The report indicates that public fund holdings are primarily in leading companies in the livestock breeding chain and related agricultural sectors, with significant holdings in Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others [22] 4. Investment Recommendations - In the pig farming sector, the report suggests that companies with cost advantages will have a significant competitive edge, recommending major players like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential in smaller firms like Tian Kang Biological and Shennong Group [37] - For the poultry sector, the report notes potential supply declines due to avian influenza, recommending attention to companies like San Nong Development and Yisheng Biological [37] - In the feed sector, the report remains optimistic about leading companies expanding their market share domestically and internationally, emphasizing the importance of cost efficiency [37] - The report also suggests monitoring developments in biotechnology and industry consolidation in the planting sector, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [37] - In the pet industry, the report highlights the trend towards market consolidation and recommends companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [37]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited (01209.HK) with a current price of HKD 43.44 and a fair value of HKD 48.72 [6][33]. Core Insights - The shopping center segment shows strong performance, with both scale and quality being emphasized. The company is expected to experience significant growth in its commercial operations, particularly in shopping centers, which are projected to drive revenue growth [2][33]. - The company is entering a critical development phase over the next five years, focusing on both expansion and high-quality service delivery. This includes a strategy to enhance customer flow and membership engagement [33]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: - 2023A: RMB 14,767 million - 2024A: RMB 17,043 million (22.9% growth) - 2025E: RMB 18,026 million (5.8% growth) - 2026E: RMB 19,218 million (6.6% growth) - 2027E: RMB 20,434 million (6.3% growth) [3][14]. - EBITDA is forecasted to grow from RMB 4,304 million in 2023A to RMB 6,985 million in 2027E [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 2,929 million in 2023A to RMB 4,824 million in 2027E, with a growth rate of 32.8% in 2023A and 10.6% in 2027E [3][14]. Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue is segmented into commercial and property channels: - Commercial channel revenue is projected to grow significantly, with shopping center revenue expected to increase by 16.5% in 2025, 14.0% in 2026, and 14.0% in 2027 [14][21]. - Property channel revenue is expected to grow at a slower pace, with community space revenue projected to decline by 2% in 2025, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [21][22]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin is expected to improve from 35.6% in 2025 to 37.9% in 2027, driven by enhanced profitability in the commercial segment [22][24]. - The core net profit margin is projected to rise from 21.7% in 2025 to 23.5% in 2027, reflecting improved operational efficiency [30][32]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing scale and quality in the company's growth strategy, with a focus on expanding its commercial footprint while maintaining high service standards [33]. - The fair value assessment is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 23x, reflecting the company's historical performance and future growth potential [33].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of HKD 28.76 and a fair value of HKD 48.16 [8]. Core Insights - The company maintains a strong position in sales, ranking among the top three in the industry, with a focus on increasing investment efforts [9]. - Rental income from shopping centers has shown double-digit growth, indicating robust performance in the investment property segment [25]. - The company is expected to achieve a core net profit of CNY 21 billion in 2025, with a projected growth trajectory for the following years [8]. Summary by Sections Development Business - In 2025, the company achieved sales of CNY 233.6 billion, a decrease of 10.5% year-on-year, with a sales area of 9.23 million square meters, down 18.6% [9]. - The average sales price increased by 10% to CNY 25,000 per square meter [9]. - The company secured land in 18 cities with a total investment of CNY 91.6 billion, up 18% year-on-year, and an equity land acquisition amount of CNY 68.3 billion, up 30% [19][14]. Regular Business - The total rental income for 2025 is projected at CNY 329.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [34]. - The company’s shopping centers saw a rental income increase of 9.9% in the first half of 2025, driven by a 36% increase in foot traffic [25]. - Overall regular income for the year is expected to reach CNY 512 billion, a 6.5% increase year-on-year [40]. Performance Forecast - The core net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 21 billion, with expectations of CNY 23.2 billion and CNY 25.6 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively [8]. - The company’s performance structure is improving, with non-development core net profit expected to account for 56% of total profits in 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 2.23 and a fair value of HKD 2.93 [8]. Core Insights - The issuance of HKD 2.338 billion convertible bonds aims to enhance trading activity and mitigate equity market volatility risks for bondholders. The company plans to use the net proceeds for operational funding, loan repayment, and vessel acquisition [2][8]. - The bond issuance is accompanied by a stock borrowing arrangement to facilitate short selling, ensuring a smooth issuance process and balancing supply and demand [2][8]. - The company anticipates a net profit of HKD 2.431 billion in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.44% [8]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections (in million HKD) are as follows: - 2023A: 3,745.1 - 2024A: 4,441.0 - 2025E: 4,655.6 - 2026E: 4,768.9 - 2027E: 5,200.8 - The growth rates for revenue are projected at 12.37% for 2023, 18.58% for 2024, and 4.83% for 2025 [3]. - Net profit forecasts (in million HKD) are: - 2023A: 1,901.6 - 2024A: 2,105.7 - 2025E: 2,284.2 - 2026E: 2,431.2 - 2027E: 2,746.7 - The expected EPS (in HKD) is projected to be 0.31 for 2023, increasing to 0.44 by 2027 [3]. Relative Market Performance - The report includes a comparative performance analysis of the company against the Hang Seng Index, indicating a positive trend in the company's stock performance [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a significant recovery in core profits, driven by the optimization of its asset structure and the anticipated decline in financing costs due to expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][13] - Despite a projected net loss of 2.5 billion to 5 billion yuan in 2025 due to one-time goodwill impairment, the core net profit is expected to increase significantly when excluding this impact [9] - The company is expected to generate substantial cash flow from asset disposals, which will help reduce high-interest debt and improve financial conditions [9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023, 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 33,675 million, 38,431 million, 49,115 million, 39,287 million, and 37,222 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 5.5%, 14.1%, 27.8%, -20.0%, and -5.3% [8] - The expected EBITDA for the same years is 22,757 million, 23,534 million, 16,332 million, 17,387 million, and 20,410 million yuan [8] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023, 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 1,281 million, 904 million, -315 million, 2,784 million, and 3,487 million yuan, with growth rates of 164.5%, -29.5%, -134.8%, 984.2%, and 25.3% [8] Valuation and Price Target - The reasonable value per share is estimated at 5.26 yuan, based on a 1x price-to-book ratio for 2026 [9][13] - The company is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in 2026, with a projected net profit of 27.84 billion yuan and a book value per share of 5.26 yuan [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit, reaching 1.9 billion RMB, which represents a year-on-year growth of 253%, exceeding expectations. The fourth quarter performance was particularly strong, driven by improved profitability in thermal power and a reduction in financial costs [6][9]. - The company completed a total electricity generation of 48.6 billion kWh in 2025, with a focus on increasing installed capacity through new thermal power projects. The expected increase in installed capacity is projected to contribute positively to profits [6][9]. - A market value management plan has been implemented, emphasizing shareholder returns through cash dividends. The company has maintained a consistent dividend policy over the past decade, with a notable dividend payout of 180 million RMB in the third quarter of 2025 [6][9]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 1.877 billion RMB, 1.818 billion RMB, and 1.948 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.4, 1.2, and 1.1 for the respective years [6][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 18.946 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 3.5%. For 2024, revenue is expected to rise to 23.517 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 24.1% [2][9]. - EBITDA is forecasted to increase significantly from 1.922 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.943 billion RMB in 2025, indicating strong operational performance [2][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 1.7% in 2023 to 16.0% in 2025, showcasing enhanced profitability [2][9]. - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is projected to decrease from 67.5% in 2023 to 59.0% in 2025, indicating improved financial stability [2][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 14.16 and a fair value of HKD 19.75 [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 69.5-70.5 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 11.1%-12.7%, and is projected to turn profitable with a net profit of RMB 0.6-1 billion [9][10]. - The operating cash flow (OCF) and adjusted net profit are expected to exceed market expectations, indicating improved operational quality [10]. - The company's pricing power is expected to increase, supported by the ongoing implementation of AI applications, which is anticipated to enhance profitability [10][11]. - The company is projected to maintain a revenue growth rate of 11.4% in 2025, 12.9% in 2026, and 13.9% in 2027 [11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: RMB 5,679 million - 2024: RMB 6,256 million - 2025: RMB 6,970 million (growth rate: 11.4%) - 2026: RMB 7,868 million (growth rate: 12.9%) - 2027: RMB 8,960 million (growth rate: 13.9%) [8][11]. - EBITDA Forecast: - 2023: RMB 136 million - 2024: RMB 331 million - 2025: RMB 913 million - 2026: RMB 1,286 million - 2027: RMB 1,771 million [8]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: RMB -210 million - 2024: RMB -142 million - 2025: RMB 81 million - 2026: RMB 325 million - 2027: RMB 640 million [8][11]. Business Segment Analysis - Cloud Services Revenue: - Expected growth rates for 金蝶云星空 are 12% in 2025, 13% in 2026, and 14% in 2027 [12]. - Expected growth rates for 金蝶云苍穹 are 30% in 2025, 28% in 2026, and 25% in 2027 [12]. - Management Software Revenue: - Expected decline in revenue with growth rates of -3% in 2025, -3% in 2026, and -2% in 2027 [12][13].