Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [2] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 old-for-new policy is expected to boost household appliance demand, with an increase in the number of supported product categories and funding scale [6][15] - The central government has allocated 81 billion yuan for the 2025 old-for-new policy, which will support the replacement of eight major household appliances and expand the subsidy to additional products [6][15] - In 2024, over 36 million consumers purchased more than 56 million units of major appliances, generating sales of 240 billion yuan, indicating significant market activity [6][16] - The leading companies in the industry are expected to benefit more from the policy due to their better product positioning and wider distribution channels [6][33] - Investment recommendations include Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances for white goods, as well as Aima Technology and Ninebot for two-wheeled vehicles [6][44] Summary by Sections Policy Review and Outlook - The 2025 old-for-new policy will continue to support eight categories of household appliances, with subsidies remaining consistent with 2024 levels and additional support for air conditioning products [15] - The funding for the 2025 policy is significantly increased compared to the previous year, with 81 billion yuan allocated to support local implementation [15] Investment Recommendations - White goods are expected to see stable growth, with companies like Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances recommended for investment due to their stable ROE and high dividend advantages [44] - Recommendations also include leading companies in two-wheeled vehicles and black goods, such as TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual [44]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy and its impact on sales elasticity, indicating that the policy is expected to stimulate sales by approximately 1.9 million units in 2024, with a manageable demand pull-forward effect [6][16] - The report anticipates a slight positive growth in passenger vehicle terminal sales for 2025, driven by the extended duration of the replacement policy and a significant number of vehicles eligible for scrappage subsidies [22][29] Summary by Sections 1. Event - The scope of support for vehicle scrappage and replacement has been expanded, with the subsidy per vehicle remaining unchanged from 2024. The central government has allocated 81 billion CNY for the 2025 consumption upgrade policy [15][17] 2. Review - The 2024 vehicle replacement policy is projected to stimulate an additional 1.9 million units in sales, with the effective stimulation period lasting about four months. The impact of demand pull-forward is expected to be limited compared to previous tax incentive policies [16][20] 3. Outlook - For 2025, the report forecasts a slight positive growth in terminal sales of passenger vehicles, supported by a large number of vehicles eligible for scrappage subsidies and a longer effective period for the replacement policy [22][23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report provides a "shelf-style" investment suggestion, highlighting key companies in the passenger vehicle chain, including BYD, Li Auto, and Great Wall Motors, among others. It also identifies potential turning point companies such as SAIC Motor [29]

Group 1 - Industry investment rating: Buy [2] - Core viewpoint: NVIDIA's CES 2025 keynote highlighted the launch of the RTX 50 series graphics cards, Cosmos series world models, and AI Agent key tool components [9][10] - Blackwell chip has been fully produced, with superior performance and deployment by major cloud service providers, supporting up to 200 configurations and offering 360 PFLOPS (FP16) computing power per cabinet [10][11] Group 2 - The Cosmos model is designed for content generation in applications such as autonomous driving and robotics, reflecting the trend of AI large models integrating with specific application scenarios [14][19] - NVIDIA provides three key tools—NIM, NeMo, and AI Blueprints—to assist developers in building and deploying AI Agents, significantly lowering the barriers to AI Agent construction [16][18] - The next-generation automotive processor Thor has been fully produced, with partnerships established with leading companies like Toyota and Continental for automated driving solutions [17][19] Group 3 - Recommended companies in AI application: Fourth Paradigm, Wanjun Technology, Kingsoft Office, and others [19] - Recommended companies in AI computing power: Cambricon, Unisoc, Inspur Information, and others [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 17.92 CNY and a fair value of 20.01 CNY [4]. Core Views - The implementation of the national network identity certification service is expected to bring new business opportunities for the company, particularly in the CTID (Citizen Trusted Identity) sector, which could lead to a demand for approximately 210 million terminal devices [10][36]. - The company's payment business is experiencing revitalization through international expansion, with overseas POS machine shipments increasing significantly from 400,000 units in 2018 to 3.5 million units in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 54% [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach 1.08 CNY in 2024, 1.33 CNY in 2025, and 1.61 CNY in 2026, with a target price based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025 [10]. Financial Forecast - Revenue (in million CNY) is forecasted as follows: - 2022: 7370 - 2023: 8250 - 2024: 8416 - 2025: 9408 - 2026: 10921 - EBITDA (in million CNY) is projected to be: - 2022: 562 - 2023: 1363 - 2024: 1325 - 2025: 1647 - 2026: 2005 - Net profit (in million CNY) is expected to be: - 2022: -382 - 2023: 1004 - 2024: 1110 - 2025: 1377 - 2026: 1667 - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 19.80 in 2023 to 11.10 in 2026 [3][10]. Business Overview - The company operates in two main segments: smart terminal clusters and industry digitalization clusters, focusing on digital payment and intelligent recognition technologies [53][56]. - The company is the only supplier of QR code security chips and one of four suppliers of QR code modules in the CTID ecosystem, indicating a strong position in the market [27][10]. - The company has established a significant presence in the overseas market, with over 85% of its revenue coming from international operations in the first half of 2024 [10]. Market Potential - The CTID terminal device market is estimated to reach a scale of 10 billion CNY from 2025 to 2030, with the company positioned as the sole chip supplier [36]. - The module market for CTID is projected to reach 88 billion CNY over the same period, further enhancing the company's revenue potential [38]. Recent Developments - The company has been actively involved in the development of the CTID platform, which has already been integrated into various government and financial institutions, providing millions of identity verifications [22][23]. - The company has a diversified product matrix, including digital payment terminals and intelligent recognition products, which are crucial for its growth strategy [53][56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, with a current price of 379.60 HKD and a target value of 478.17 HKD per share [5][22]. Core Views - Tencent Video's strategy of enhancing collaboration with WeChat IP and focusing on quality content has led to significant improvements in its competitive position, with four out of the top five new series in 2024 being aired on Tencent Video [10][11]. - The synergy between WeChat IP and Tencent's content ecosystem is strengthening, with a focus on high-quality IP adaptations across various media formats, including series, animations, and games [10][13]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for Tencent, projecting revenues of 657.9 billion RMB and 713 billion RMB for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to reach 221.8 billion RMB and 244.4 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 45.0% and 10.2% [10][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2022 was 554.6 billion RMB, with projections of 609 billion RMB for 2023, 657.9 billion RMB for 2024, 713 billion RMB for 2025, and 768.9 billion RMB for 2026, indicating a growth rate of 9.8% in 2023 and 8.0% in 2024 [3][10]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow from 115.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 221.8 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 45.0% increase [3][10]. - The report anticipates an EPS of 12.00 RMB for 2022, increasing to 24.04 RMB in 2024, with a P/E ratio projected to decrease from 25.5 in 2022 to 14.5 in 2024 [3][10]. Business Performance - Tencent Video has successfully launched several high-performing series in 2024, with a focus on female-oriented themes and high-quality productions, which have significantly boosted viewership [10][11]. - The report highlights Tencent's comprehensive ecosystem from IP creation to content distribution, which is expected to enhance profitability and market share in the coming years [10][17]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the core business value at 4.03 trillion HKD, with a total company value of 4.4 trillion HKD, translating to a target price of 478.17 HKD per share [20][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 7.26 and a fair value of HKD 10.73 [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure in 2024, but there is potential for recovery in 2025 due to an increase in content supply [3][8]. - The overall performance in 2024 is anticipated to decline, primarily due to a weak domestic film market and underperformance of certain films [8][9]. - The company maintains a strong position in the ticketing and film promotion sectors, with expectations of revenue growth in the coming years [10][11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 42.62 billion in 2024, RMB 50.19 billion in 2025, and RMB 55.99 billion in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.42% in 2024 [4][12]. - **Net Profit**: The expected net profit for 2024 is RMB 1.85 billion, significantly down from 2023, but projected to recover to RMB 7.14 billion in 2025 and RMB 9.18 billion in 2026 [4][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to be RMB 0.16 in 2024, increasing to RMB 0.62 in 2025 and RMB 0.80 in 2026 [4][12]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is expected to have a P/E ratio of 41.7 in 2024, decreasing to 10.8 in 2025 and 8.4 in 2026 [4][12]. Revenue Breakdown - **Online Entertainment Ticketing Services**: Expected revenues of RMB 20.44 billion in 2024, RMB 24.34 billion in 2025, and RMB 27.02 billion in 2026, with a decline of 9.52% in 2024 [10][12]. - **Entertainment Content Services**: Projected revenues of RMB 20.16 billion in 2024, RMB 23.53 billion in 2025, and RMB 26.42 billion in 2026, reflecting a decrease of 12.37% in 2024 [10][12]. - **Advertising Services and Others**: Anticipated revenues of RMB 2.02 billion in 2024, RMB 2.33 billion in 2025, and RMB 2.56 billion in 2026 [10][12]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the ticketing and film promotion industry, with a stable market share in the film ticketing sector and significant growth in the live performance market [9][10].

[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|专业工程 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） Q4 新签金额小幅承压，产量略增 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-01-07 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -42% -28% -13% 1% 16% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 01/25 鸿路钢构 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]耿鹏智 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260524010001 | | 021-38003620 | | gengpengzhi@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 谢璐 | | SAC 执证号：S0260514080004 | | SFC CE No. BMB592 | | 021-38003688 | | xielu@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，耿鹏智并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | [联系人： Table_Contacts]张子峻 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 zhangziju ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [3]. Core Views - Aima Technology is a leader in the electric two-wheeler industry, with annual production and sales exceeding 10 million units. The company has a robust growth trajectory, with a revenue CAGR of 17.2% from 2015 to 2023 and a net profit CAGR of 22.3% during the same period. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.59 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and a net profit of 0.95 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [9][19]. - The company is expected to benefit from new regulations and subsidies in the short term, while long-term demand in the domestic market remains promising. The upcoming revisions to the national standards and the inclusion of electric two-wheelers in the trade-in subsidy program are anticipated to accelerate the replacement of old vehicles and enhance industry concentration [9][37][44]. - Aima's product matrix is diverse, with a focus on electric bicycles, which accounted for 61% of revenue in 2023. The company is positioned in the mid-to-high-end market, with a competitive pricing strategy compared to peers [22][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 21.04 billion yuan in 2023 to 29.93 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 12.2% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.88 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.82 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15% [2]. - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 2.21 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.65 billion yuan in 2026 [2]. Company Overview - Aima Technology was established in 1999 and has been a key player in the electric two-wheeler market since 2004. The company operates seven manufacturing bases, primarily in Tianjin and Jiangsu, and has over 30,000 retail outlets [19][20]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the chairman holding 68.8% of the shares, indicating strong control and commitment to the company's future [20][21]. Industry Outlook - The electric two-wheeler industry is expected to experience a new wave of growth driven by regulatory changes and subsidies. The introduction of stricter safety standards is likely to phase out smaller manufacturers, leading to increased market concentration [37][44]. - The domestic market shows potential for growth, with increasing demand from both consumer and business sectors. The overseas market, particularly in Southeast Asia, is also seen as a significant growth area, with projections indicating a potential sales volume of 53.9 million units by 2027 [54][60].

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|机械设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 机械设备行业周报 海外燃机高景气，AI 敞口值得重点关注 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-07 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 机械设备 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]代川 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260517080007 | | | SFC CE No. BOS186 | | | 021-38003678 | | | daichuan@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 孙柏阳 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260520080002 | | | 021-38003680 | | | sunboyang@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 王宁 | ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 回首与展望，地产年度总结：房企 销售 下行压力一视同仁，买方市场适者生存 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-07 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 房地产 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 | | SFC CE No. BNN906 | | | 021-38003639 | | | guoz@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： 谢淼 | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 | | SFC CE No. BVB342 | | | 021-38003637 | | | | xiemiao@gf.c ...