Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the environmental sector, including Huanlan Environment, Sanfeng Environment, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [5]. Core Insights - The environmental industry is entering a critical phase of carbon reduction, with a focus on recycling and waste incineration. The demand for green energy and recycling industries is expected to rise significantly as China transitions to a dual control system for carbon emissions starting in 2026 [4][17]. - The introduction of the EU carbon tariff in 2026 is anticipated to increase the cost of exports from China, prompting companies to adopt greener practices to mitigate carbon emissions [4][17]. - High dividend assets in the environmental sector are expected to remain attractive in 2026, with companies like Guangda Environment and Huanlan Environment showing significant stock price increases in 2025 [4][5]. - The bio-diesel sector is experiencing a rise in UCO prices, which are expected to benefit companies involved in waste oil processing and bio-fuel production [19][25]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The environmental sector has shown strong performance in 2026, with water treatment, energy-saving, and recycling sectors leading the gains. Companies are diversifying into secondary businesses to enhance growth [11][14]. Section 2: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The report highlights the implementation of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Governance Action Plan" aimed at reducing industrial solid waste and enhancing recycling efforts [33]. - The introduction of the carbon trading market and the EU carbon tariff are significant regulatory changes that will impact the industry [17][31]. Section 3: Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Huanlan Environment, Shanghai Industrial Holdings, and others, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and policy support [4][5]. - The report notes that the environmental sector's valuation is currently at a historical low, suggesting potential for future growth [45][52]. Section 4: Financial Analysis - The financial metrics for key companies indicate a positive outlook, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios suggesting undervaluation relative to historical performance [5]. Section 5: Market Trends - The report tracks the performance of various sub-sectors within the environmental industry, noting that energy-saving manufacturing and recycling have shown the most significant growth [49]. Section 6: Export and Pricing Trends - UCO prices have remained strong, with recent data showing a 6.1% increase compared to early 2025, indicating robust demand for bio-diesel feedstock [19][23]. Section 7: Carbon Market Activity - The carbon market has seen significant trading volumes, with recent data indicating a closing price of 78.50 CNY per ton, reflecting ongoing market activity and interest [31]. Section 8: Company Announcements - Recent announcements from companies like Dongjiang Environmental and Zhongyuan Environmental indicate strategic acquisitions aimed at enhancing operational capabilities and market positioning [42].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 87.20 and a fair value of HKD 121.32 [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from both same-store sales growth and expansion, with a 2025 profit forecast slightly exceeding expectations. The projected net profit for 2025 is between RMB 4.95 billion and RMB 5.25 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 50%-60% [7]. - The management's background in e-commerce has allowed the company to effectively capture the benefits of the takeaway market, enhancing user acquisition and retention capabilities. The main brand is expected to maintain resilience in same-store sales growth [7]. - The company has opened 905 new franchise stores and closed 645 in the first half of 2025, with a net increase of approximately 2,000 stores expected by the end of the year [7]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 5.7 billion, RMB 6.6 billion, and RMB 7.7 billion, respectively, indicating a clear growth strategy [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 3.348 billion in 2023, RMB 3.285 billion in 2024, RMB 4.348 billion in 2025, RMB 4.917 billion in 2026, and RMB 5.719 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 52.3%, -1.9%, 32.4%, 13.1%, and 16.3% respectively [4][11]. - The EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 610 million in 2023 to RMB 988 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 52.3%, -1.9%, 32.4%, 13.1%, and 16.3% [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase from RMB 416 million in 2023 to RMB 775 million in 2027, with growth rates of 169.8%, 0.4%, 37.5%, 14.6%, and 17.7% [4][11]. - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of 49.6% in 2023, expected to decrease gradually to 29.8% by 2027 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 8.70 CNY and a fair value of 10.50 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company, Qingsong Co., Ltd., has transitioned to focus on the cosmetics ODM sector, with a significant recovery in profitability expected as operational efficiencies improve and customer orders rebound [10]. - The company has undergone a strategic shift by divesting its turpentine business and acquiring 100% of the cosmetics OEM leader, Norsbel, enhancing its competitive position in the cosmetics manufacturing industry [15][16]. - The report forecasts a positive trend in revenue and net profit, with expected net profits of 1.3 billion CNY in 2025, 1.8 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.3 billion CNY in 2027, supported by a robust customer base and product focus [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Qingsong Co., Ltd. has evolved from a turpentine producer to a leading player in the cosmetics ODM market, acquiring Norsbel to strengthen its business model [15]. - The company has faced challenges due to the pandemic and regulatory pressures but is now on a recovery path with improved operational efficiency [16]. Financial Analysis - The company reported revenues of 19.69 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected slight decline to 19.40 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 21.11 billion CNY in 2025 [9][27]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, with significant growth projected in subsequent years, reflecting a recovery from previous losses [10][27]. Industry Analysis - The global beauty and personal care market is projected to grow to 651.6 billion USD by 2024, with a steady recovery anticipated in the cosmetics sector [43]. - The Chinese cosmetics market is expected to reach 73.7 billion USD by 2025, indicating a shift towards stable growth as the industry matures [46]. - Regulatory changes are expected to benefit compliant companies, leading to increased market concentration and the exit of non-compliant players [51]. Strategic Focus - The company is concentrating on high-value product categories, particularly facial masks, and aims to enhance its customer base by focusing on key clients [10]. - The operational strategy includes optimizing product offerings and improving supply chain efficiency, which is expected to enhance profitability and market share [10].

Market Overview - The commodity market has shown significant differentiation since 2025, with precious metals like gold and silver leading the market, increasing by 63% and 111% respectively, while energy and agricultural products have underperformed, with crude oil down 16% and agricultural indices only slightly up by 3% [5][12] - As of early 2026, metals such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminum continue to rise, with smaller metals like nickel and tin experiencing sharp increases, indicating a clear rotation in the market and heightened investor sentiment regarding the potential onset of a new super cycle in commodities [5][12] Historical Super Cycles - Since 1850, there have been five historical super cycles in commodities, characterized by a pattern of "bull short, bear long," with the average upward phase lasting about 13 years and a price increase of approximately 75%, while the downward phase averages 21 years with a price decline of about 47% [5][13][21] - The first cycle (1850-1898) was driven by the spread of the Industrial Revolution and global infrastructure development, while the second cycle (1899-1932) was influenced by the Second Industrial Revolution and World War I, leading to price increases in strategic resources like copper and oil [14][16][21] Bullish Logic: Financial Attributes and Industrial Trends - The bullish argument is primarily based on the safe-haven value and industrial demand, with global monetary easing and fiscal expansion contributing to a noticeable recovery in economic sentiment across major economies [23][25] - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization has positioned commodities as a preferred option for sovereign nations to hedge against credit devaluation, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves, indicating a potential rise in commodity ETF allocations [25][30] Bearish Views: Demand Slowdown and Policy Constraints - Bearish concerns focus on the demand side, highlighting a lack of new engines for growth, particularly as emerging economies like India exhibit "dematerialization" growth, leading to lower metal consumption per unit of GDP [64] - Central banks are increasingly prioritizing inflation control, which may lead to a tightening response to rapid commodity price increases, potentially suppressing overall commodity market space [64][66]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业周报 乘用车库存 25 年 12 月小幅去化，静待观望需求落地 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-18 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 01/25 04/25 06/25 08/25 11/25 01/26 汽车 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]张力月 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524040004 | | | 021-38003727 | | | zhangliyue@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 闫俊刚 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516010001 | | | 021-38003682 | | | yanjungang@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈飞彤 | | | SAC 执证号：S02605 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the internet sector, particularly e-commerce, social entertainment media, internet healthcare, short videos, and IP-related markets, driven by advancements in AI applications and product innovations [3][17][22]. E-commerce - The report continues to recommend Alibaba in the e-commerce sector, highlighting the recent AI application developments that are expected to catalyze growth. The MAU of the Qianwen app has surpassed 100 million, indicating strong user engagement [3][17]. - JD.com is projected to experience marginal improvements after a weak growth quarter in Q4 2025, maintaining a buy rating [3][17]. Social Entertainment Media - Bilibili and Tencent are noted for their strong advertising momentum, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving. The report anticipates the release of new games from both companies, enhancing their product offerings [3][17][22]. - Tencent's game "Delta Action" is expected to become a significant title alongside "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [3][17]. Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their leading platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [3][17]. Short Videos - Kuaishou is recognized for its stable core business and technological leadership in AI, with ongoing efforts to optimize user engagement and monetization through advanced recommendation systems [3][17][22]. IP and Trendy Toys - Pop Mart is expanding its overseas supply chain, with recent shipments from partners in Indonesia, Cambodia, and Mexico, indicating a robust international strategy [3][17]. Long Videos - The report notes a recovery in the number of TV series registrations, with multiple platforms releasing high-quality content, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like iQIYI and Mango TV [3][17]. Music Streaming - Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music have shown stable performance, although concerns about competition have led to a valuation adjustment. The report emphasizes the importance of quality content in driving subscription growth [3][17][22]. Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is expected to maintain its growth trajectory into 2026, with a focus on leading companies like Tencent and NetEase, as well as emerging players with strong product pipelines [3][22]. Advertising - The report indicates stable advertising spending from Q1 flash purchase advertisers, with AI applications like Canva and Afu being utilized in advertising strategies, suggesting continued growth in the advertising sector [3][22]. AI Developments - The report highlights the current phase of intensive AI development in China, recommending attention to companies involved in AI model iterations and applications across various sectors [3][22].

Core Insights - The report indicates that coal imports in December increased by 12% year-on-year, and the daily consumption of power plants is expected to continue growing [1][85]. Market Dynamics - Coking coal prices have seen significant increases, with the first round of price hikes for coke expected to be implemented next Monday [5][11]. - The CCI 5500 kcal thermal coal index reported at 702 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1 RMB/ton [11][86]. - The average daily consumption of coastal power plants was 218,000 tons, with a stock availability of 15.4 days [28]. Industry Outlook - The coal price is expected to maintain stability due to high daily consumption and a potential decrease in production in the first quarter [5][86]. - The overall supply-demand balance in the medium to long term is expected to remain tight, with a potential increase in the price center compared to 2025 [5][86]. - The total profit of the coal mining industry from January to November 2025 was 297 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 47% [5]. Key Companies - Companies with stable profits and dividends include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal, and others [5]. - Companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction include Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others [5]. - Companies with long-term growth potential include Huayang Co., New Energy, and others [5]. Recent Focus Areas - Industry policies have remained stable, with stricter safety regulations limiting production [5][88]. - The demand growth rate for coal has generally declined, but December saw a significant increase in coal imports [5][92].

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on cleanroom segments due to ongoing overseas demand and accelerated domestic substitution in the construction and decoration industry [1][4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Capital Expenditure - TSMC and Micron are significantly increasing their capital expenditures in 2026, with TSMC's actual capital expenditure expected to reach $40.9 billion, a 37% increase from $29.8 billion in 2025, marking a historical high for the company [12][16]. - Micron has raised its capital expenditure forecast for the 2026 fiscal year to $20 billion, up from an initial estimate of $18 billion, indicating strong growth in the semiconductor sector [12][17]. - Domestic semiconductor companies, including Changxin Technology and SMIC, are also in critical phases of expansion and technological upgrades, with capital expenditures expected to grow significantly [12][18]. Group 2: IDC Construction and Internet Companies - The construction of domestic IDC projects is progressing, with major internet companies and operators accelerating their investments. For instance, China Mobile's data center project in Hohhot is valued at CNY 5.244 billion, while China Telecom's smart cloud base project is valued at CNY 880 million [22][23]. - Leading internet companies like Alibaba and ByteDance are planning substantial investments in AI-related infrastructure, with Alibaba set to invest CNY 380 billion over the next three years [22][24]. - The report suggests that construction companies can leverage their resources to participate in IDC operations and maintenance, enhancing their value-added services [22][24]. Group 3: Coal Chemical Projects and Steel Prices - Coal chemical projects are steadily advancing, with significant contracts being awarded, such as the CNY 1 billion contract for the Shenhua Yulin project [26][27]. - Steel prices have seen a slight decline, with the average price of medium and thick plates at CNY 3,359 per ton, down 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a stable but low pricing environment [28][29].

Core Insights - The report highlights that new regulations in derivatives are expected to release positive signals for the non-bank financial sector, with a focus on companies likely to announce performance increases [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14% to 14281.08 [10]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.50% month-on-month [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - Listed insurance companies are expected to continue high growth, with improvements in long-term interest rate spreads anticipated [12][16]. - As of January 12, 2026, the total scale of private equity securities investment funds by insurance capital reached 184.5 billion yuan, with 11 funds established [16]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life for potential investment opportunities [16]. Securities Sector - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized stability and quality improvement in its 2026 work meeting, aiming to prevent market volatility and enhance internal stability [17][18]. - The CSRC's new derivatives regulations aim to standardize the market, encourage risk management, and improve the income structure of brokerage firms [25][26]. - The report indicates that the derivatives market is expected to grow significantly, with the scale of over-the-counter derivatives increasing from 0.32 trillion yuan in 2015 to 2.38 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 29% [26]. Group 3: Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a current price of 66.33 yuan, with a target value of 85.17 yuan, indicating a buy rating [6]. - New China Life (601336.SH) is rated as a buy with a current price of 82.09 yuan and a target value of 94.21 yuan [6]. - China Life (601628.SH) is also rated as a buy, with a current price of 47.52 yuan and a target value of 55.47 yuan [6].

- The report discusses the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to model price-volume data and predict future prices. The learned features are mapped to industry theme indices, including the CSI Satellite Industry Index, CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, CSI Biotechnology Theme Index, CSI Big Data Industry Index, and CSI Computer Theme Index[79][81] - The CNN-based model standardizes price-volume data into graphical representations for analysis, leveraging deep learning techniques to identify patterns and trends in stock price movements[79][80] - The latest thematic configurations derived from the CNN model focus on sectors such as satellites, nonferrous metals, biotechnology, and computing, reflecting the model's ability to capture sectoral trends[79][81]