Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The New Year holiday travel showed strong growth, with a total of 803 million people traveling across regions from December 31, 2025, to January 3, 2026, averaging 201 million people per day, a year-on-year increase of 19.75%. The total passenger transport volume reached 209 million, with a daily average of 52 million, up 31.1% year-on-year [4][7] - The aviation sector experienced both volume and price increases, with daily flight numbers averaging 14,900 during the holiday, a 2.9% increase compared to 2025 and a 13.2% increase compared to 2019. The average ticket price for domestic economy class reached 684.6 CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [4][9] - The railway and waterway transport sectors outperformed the market, with year-on-year growth rates of 54.5% and 32.7%, respectively, during the holiday period [4][7] Summary by Sections Holiday Travel Data - Total national passenger transport volume reached 20,943.4 million, with a year-on-year growth of 31.1% [7] - Railway passenger transport volume was 6,476.9 million, with a year-on-year growth of 54.5% [7] - Road passenger transport volume was 13,374 million, with a year-on-year growth of 23.2% [7] - Waterway passenger transport volume was 287.4 million, with a year-on-year growth of 32.7% [7] - Civil aviation passenger transport volume was 805.1 million, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on airlines with stable volume growth and improving prices, specifically mentioning Hainan Airlines, China National Aviation Holding, and Spring Airlines [4] - In the railway sector, it highlights the growth potential of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway due to increased capacity and network effects [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth potential of the domestic intelligent driving chip industry, with a significant increase in penetration rates expected in the coming years. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend [10][17]. - The company has a strong R&D team with extensive experience, which enhances its product development capabilities and market competitiveness [49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration with Tier 1 manufacturers and algorithm providers to drive commercialization and expand market presence [61]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Dimension - The intelligent driving chip market is expected to grow rapidly due to increasing penetration rates driven by technological advancements, policy support, and rising consumer demand. The penetration rates for L2, L2.5, and L2.9 configurations are projected to increase significantly by 2030 [17][20]. - The report notes that only a few OEMs are likely to achieve self-developed chips due to high costs and complexities involved in chip development [29][33]. - Geopolitical factors are expected to drive the domestic market share of intelligent driving chips, with a focus on increasing localization [41][42]. 2. Product Dimension - The company is continuously iterating its products, with a focus on developing a mature ecosystem. The A1000 series has already achieved significant market penetration, and the upcoming C1200 family is expected to meet evolving automotive architecture needs [49][55]. - The C1200 family is designed to support central computing architectures and is expected to be commercially viable soon, with significant advancements in safety and performance [55][57]. 3. Ecosystem Dimension - The company positions itself as a Tier 2 supplier, collaborating with leading Tier 1 manufacturers and algorithm firms to enhance its market offerings. This strategy aims to provide OEMs with substantial value and differentiation in their intelligent driving solutions [61]. - The report discusses the limitations of a tightly integrated hardware-software model, as seen in the case of Mobileye, and suggests that a more flexible approach will be beneficial for OEMs [61]. 4. Growth Potential - The company is expanding its capabilities into the robotics sector, leveraging its automotive-grade chip technology to capture new market opportunities. The SesameX platform is a key initiative in this regard [10][27]. - Revenue forecasts indicate substantial growth, with expected revenues of 834 million in 2025, 1.38 billion in 2026, and 2.11 billion in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 75.8%, 65.5%, and 52.8% respectively [8].

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 1 月 5 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（1 月第 1 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]郑恺 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 孙柏阳 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520080002 | | 021-38003680 | | sunboyang@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 周源 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523040001 | | 0755-23948351 | | shzhouyuan@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，孙柏阳,周源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 | | 的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2026-01-0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, which includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles. The policy is expected to significantly boost the sales of mid-to-high-end passenger cars [6][9][18]. - The report maintains a judgment of "price increase and stable volume" for domestic passenger car demand in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the industry despite potential market fluctuations [18]. Summary by Sections 1. 2026 Vehicle Replacement Policy - The policy supports scrapping and replacing personal vehicles with subsidies of 12% (up to 20,000 CNY) for new energy vehicles and 10% (up to 15,000 CNY) for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [9][10]. - It also includes support for scrapping old commercial vehicles and promoting the electrification of city buses [9][10]. 2. Market Share Tracking in PHEV Segment - The report focuses on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as they adjust their market strategies and configurations [11]. - The analysis indicates significant variance in market shares due to increased supply and competitive strategies [11]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy aligns with expectations, and the report anticipates a rise in the proportion of mid-to-high-end passenger car sales due to the subsidy structure [18]. - The report reflects on the previous year's strategy of "emerging from deflation," which has proven to be correct, and emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes and strategic adjustments by leading companies [18]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain, including Geely, BYD, and others for potential growth [19]. - Specific companies are categorized into "right-side" and "left-side" targets based on their operational performance and market positioning [19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the value of oil transportation is becoming prominent against the backdrop of the US-Venezuela conflict. Short-term impacts on oil trade flows are expected to be limited, but long-term prospects may lead to increased production from Venezuela as the country could potentially re-enter compliant markets [6]. - The report suggests that the core logic of Venezuelan oil exports will shift from evading sanctions to compliance, which may increase short-distance transportation demand as US refineries are designed to process Venezuelan heavy crude oil [6]. - The supply side of the oil tanker market remains constrained, with limited growth expected in the coming years due to a low proportion of new ship orders and an aging fleet. The report notes that as of January 2026, the total order backlog represents only 17.62% of the existing fleet, with VLCC orders at 17.19% [6]. - Investment recommendations include maintaining a bullish stance on leading oil transportation companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping Company and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, as their performance is expected to continue to rise amid increasing oil transportation rates [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the geopolitical context of the US-Venezuela conflict and its implications for oil transportation, emphasizing the potential for increased production and compliance in the Venezuelan oil market [6]. Supply Constraints - The report identifies several factors contributing to supply constraints in the oil tanker market, including a historically low percentage of new ship orders, an aging fleet, and regulatory pressures that may increase operational costs for older vessels [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the oil transportation sector, particularly for leading companies, due to anticipated increases in oil transportation rates driven by geopolitical tensions [6].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the construction materials industry, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing market challenges [2][3] - Key companies like China Jushi and China National Materials have initiated stock incentive plans, indicating confidence in long-term growth [6][21] Group 1: Stock Incentives and Market Management - China Jushi announced a stock incentive plan for 2025, proposing to grant up to 34.52 million shares (approximately 0.86% of total shares), with performance targets set for net profit growth [6][17] - China National Materials also introduced a stock option plan, aiming to grant 15.4 million options (about 0.92% of total shares), with ambitious profit growth targets [6][18] - An article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need for improved management of real estate market expectations, suggesting that timely policy measures could stabilize the market [22][23] Group 2: Industry Fundamentals Tracking - The construction materials sector is experiencing a downturn, with leading companies showing early signs of revenue and profit recovery [34] - In the cement sector, national prices fell by 0.3% week-on-week, with an average price of 353 RMB/ton as of January 2, 2026 [6][35] - The glass market is mixed, with float glass prices showing slight declines, while photovoltaic glass remains stable [6][39] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - The report highlights that the construction materials industry is at a historical valuation low, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies [6][34] - Key companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China Jushi are noted for their strong market positions and potential for profit recovery [6][35][36] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 [7]

Group 1 - The report forecasts a total of 112 new stocks issued in 2025 across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges, with a total fundraising amount of 1308.35 billion [11][14] - The main board led in both the number of new stocks issued (38 stocks, 33.9% of total) and the fundraising amount (616 billion, 47.1% of total), followed by the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [13][14] - The issuance pace of new stocks in 2025 showed signs of acceleration despite being at a relatively low level [12] Group 2 - The average yield for offline subscription in 2025 was approximately 4.1% for Class A investors and 3.0% for Class B investors at a 1.5 billion scale [45] - The average subscription rate for Class A investors was 94.4%, with a median of 2.63% for the winning rate, indicating a stable participation level [28][30] - The average first-day price increase for new stocks was 231.2%, with no instances of stocks breaking below their issue price [34] Group 3 - The report predicts that the offline subscription yield for 2026 will be influenced by the scale of new stock listings, the increase in stock prices, and the number of investors participating in the subscription [88] - The estimated yields for Class A investors with a 1.5 billion scale account in 2026 are projected to be 2.1% under pessimistic assumptions, 3.3% under neutral assumptions, and 4.4% under optimistic assumptions [97] - The report suggests that the overall market conditions in 2026 may lead to a gradual recovery, with an expected increase in the number of new stock listings and their corresponding fundraising amounts [95]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The annual long-term contract electricity prices are reaching a bottom, with a focus on the dividend value of the sector. The electricity price in Guangdong is 0.372 CNY/kWh, down 0.02 CNY/kWh year-on-year, reflecting a 20% decrease from the benchmark. In Jiangsu, the price is 0.344 CNY/kWh, down 0.07 CNY/kWh year-on-year, a 12% drop from the benchmark. The market has reacted negatively to these price drops, but the long-term outlook suggests limited further declines as supply and demand improve [6][17][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Annual Long-term Contract Electricity Results - The annual electricity trading results for 2026 show significant price reductions in Guangdong and Jiangsu, with declines of 20% and 12% respectively. The transition from annual to monthly contracts is noted, with a high proportion of medium to long-term market electricity remaining stable [17][24]. 2. Weekly Review - The report highlights the recent implementation of local electricity pricing mechanisms, with a focus on the impact of coal prices and the stability of natural gas prices compared to previous years [10][18]. 3. Industry High-frequency Data Tracking - The report tracks the rapid decline in spot coal prices and the decrease in coal inventories at northern ports. The domestic natural gas prices are lower than the previous year, while overseas prices are fluctuating upwards [10][18]. 4. Key Company Announcements and Sector Performance Tracking - The report emphasizes the acquisition by Guiguan Electric Power of assets from its parent group, which is expected to enhance its growth potential. The company plans to lead the development of hydropower and new energy in Tibet, which could significantly boost profits in the coming quarters [6][10][18]. 5. Focus on Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several companies with strong dividend yields and market management strategies, including Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Guiguan Electric Power. The focus is on high dividend stocks and companies with robust market management practices, which are expected to enhance their valuation [6][10][18]. 6. Valuation and Financial Analysis of Key Companies - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis of key companies in the sector, indicating potential upside in their stock prices based on projected earnings and dividend increases. For instance, Guiguan Electric Power's acquisition is valued at 2.025 billion CNY, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.06 [7][10]. 7. Market Positioning and Future Outlook - The report concludes with a positive outlook for the public utility sector, suggesting that the current valuation levels are attractive for new investments, especially as the market begins to stabilize and recover from recent price declines [6][10][18].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the formal implementation of the EU carbon tariff in 2026, which is expected to boost demand for China's circular economy and green energy industries. The carbon price in the EU is currently 80-90 euros per ton, significantly higher than China's current carbon price, which will increase export costs for Chinese companies. Companies can reduce carbon emissions through green energy and recycled resources [7][11] - There is a notable acceleration in local government debt reduction efforts, with several companies in the environmental sector announcing debt recovery measures. This includes one-time payments for historical receivables and debt restructuring, which are expected to improve cash flow for many companies [7][30] - High dividend assets in the environmental sector remain attractive, with companies like Guangda Environment and Huanlan Environment showing significant stock price increases in 2025. The expectation of continued dividend growth is supported by reduced capital expenditure needs due to fewer new project orders [7][30] Summary by Sections 1. Receivables Recovery Announcements - Numerous announcements regarding receivables recovery from listed companies indicate a trend towards debt reduction in the industry. For instance, Chuangye Environmental has signed agreements to improve cash flow by adjusting payment cycles for wastewater treatment fees [15][16] - Mengcao Ecology has announced the termination and debt restructuring of four PPP projects, expecting to recover approximately 1 billion yuan in receivables, which will enhance cash flow and fund utilization efficiency [23][24] 2. Carbon Tariff Implementation - The EU carbon tariff will officially be implemented in 2026, impacting various industries including cement, steel, and electricity. This is expected to expand to additional sectors by 2027, influencing downstream products and commodities [7][11] 3. Policy Review and Trends - The report reviews policies aimed at resolving local government debts and emphasizes the importance of addressing overdue payments to enterprises. Recent policies have allocated special bond quotas to address these issues [27][28][29] 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant receivables from government projects, as they are likely to see improved market valuations and profit recovery. Key companies to watch include Chengfa Environment, Wuhan Holdings, and others in the solid waste and water treatment sectors [30]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for major liquor companies to focus on supply-demand matching and price-volume balance, especially in light of the weak demand and inventory reduction strategies being adopted by distributors [8][15][16] - The overall investment recommendation for the liquor sector remains "Buy," with a focus on companies that are expected to achieve a dual bottom in valuation and performance [8][9] Group 1: Industry Overview - The 2026 liquor distributor conference highlighted that major liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are setting more pragmatic growth targets for 2026, with a general trend of lower revenue growth expectations compared to previous years [8][15] - The report notes that the liquor industry is increasingly emphasizing the importance of core products within various price segments, with clearer distinctions between product price bands [16][19] - Companies are prioritizing the interests of distributors, focusing on price order reinforcement and inventory management, while also exploring new sales models such as consignment and instant retail [16][19] Group 2: Company-Specific Strategies - Kweichow Moutai is focusing on market-oriented reforms to ensure consumers can access its products fairly and quickly, while also maintaining a stable supply of its flagship products [19][20] - Wuliangye aims to achieve high-quality sales through a focus on core products and enhancing brand value, with a strategy that includes performance evaluations and a mechanism for eliminating underperforming distributors [22][23] - Shanxi Fenjiu is pursuing a dual strategy of national expansion and targeting younger consumers, while also enhancing its brand collaboration across its product lines [24][25] Group 3: Market Performance and Valuation - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.6% in the week of December 29 to January 2, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.7 percentage points [31][34] - As of January 2, the food and beverage sector's PE-TTM valuation stands at 21.1X, while the liquor sector's PE-TTM is at 18.3X, indicating a relative valuation of 1.49 and 1.29 times compared to the CSI 300 [47][52] - The report tracks the pricing of key liquor products, noting a decrease in the price of Moutai and an increase in the price of Wuliangye, reflecting market dynamics [53]