证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 青岛银行(002948) | | | | | | [Table_Author] 张晓辉 银行业分析师 ➢ 规模扩张势头强劲，存贷业务同步发力。截至 2025 年末，青岛银行资 产总额突破 8000 亿元大关，达 8149.60 亿元，同比增幅高达 18.12%， 在同业"慢扩表"趋势下实现逆势高增。贷款端，客户贷款总额达 3970.08 亿元，同比增长 16.53%，信贷投放聚焦本土实体经济，紧扣科技金融、 绿色金融等特色赛道，投放力度持续加大；存款端，客户存款总额达 5028.99 亿元，同比增长 16.41%，存贷规模协同增长，资金端根基愈 发稳固，为业务发展提供坚实支撑。 ➢ 盈利表现亮眼，效率持续提升。2025 年，青岛银行实现营业收入 145.73 亿元，同比增长 7.97%；归母净利润 51.88 亿元，同比增长 21.66%， 盈利弹性凸显。公司积极应对资产收益率下行等经营挑战，扩规模、调 结构、降成本，同时，加权平均净资产收益率回升至 12.68%，同比提 高 1.17 个百分 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 康耐特光学(2276.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 [Table_Title] 康耐特光学：募资加速 XR 业务投资，贡献长期成长 动能 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 29 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布公告，已同意不少于 ummary] 6 名承配人按照每股 52 港元 （较 1 月 26 日折价 11.1%；较 20 日均价折价 7.8%）认购公司 2700 万股份（占总股本比例约 5.63%）。总募集资金（剔除佣金 后）约 14 亿港元。根据公司公告，1）40%资金将用于建设 XR 配 套业务量产产线及购置计量与检测设备；2）约 20%将用于持续提 升研发能力，并就 XR 智能眼镜业务建立精密光学 ...

[Table_StockAndRank] 中烟香港(6055.HK) 投资评级 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 上次评级 [Table_Title] 中烟香港：提升烟叶采购上限，加码区域布局 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 29 日 [Table_S 事件：公司近日发布公告。 ummary] 1）签订与 Leaf Trading（关联公司）的烟草销 售框架协议，26-28 年年度交易上限分别为 670/840/980 万港元；2）与中 烟国际（北美）签订烟叶产品出口至新地区的框架协议（公司及中烟北美均 为中国烟草总公司附属公司），并上调 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Tobacco Hong Kong (6055.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on recent developments and financial projections [1]. Core Insights - The company has signed a framework agreement with Leaf Trading, increasing the annual trading limit for tobacco sales to HKD 6.7 million, HKD 8.4 million, and HKD 9.8 million for the years 2026 to 2028 respectively [1]. - A framework agreement has also been established with China Tobacco International (North America) for the export of tobacco leaves to new regions, with the annual trading limits raised significantly for 2026 and 2027, reflecting increases of 538.4% and 456.8% respectively [1][2]. - The adjustments in trading limits are based on past orders, current orders, expected demand, and the company's business expansion, indicating strong confidence in future business growth [2]. - The company aims to diversify its customer base and attract potential buyers from broader regions, particularly in Southeast Asia [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 13,074 million in 2024 to HKD 18,823 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 16%, 12%, and 11% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from HKD 854 million in 2024 to HKD 1,310 million in 2027, with growth rates of 43%, 19%, 16%, and 11% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 1.23 in 2024 to HKD 1.89 in 2027 [4]. - The company is positioned as the exclusive operational entity for international business expansion and related trade for China Tobacco International, with a strong potential for mergers and acquisitions to accelerate growth [3]. Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported tobacco leaf import/export revenues of HKD 839.9 million and HKD 115.6 million, representing year-on-year increases of 23.5% and 25.9% respectively [2]. - The company’s cigarette export revenue was HKD 115.6 million, showing a slight increase of 0.8%, while new tobacco products experienced a significant decline of 66.5% [2]. - The Brazilian operations reported a revenue of HKD 19.5 million, down 50.3% year-on-year, indicating some operational challenges [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 康耐特光学 (2276.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's growth potential and investment in XR business [1]. Core Insights - 康耐特光学 is accelerating its investment in XR business, with a total fundraising of approximately 1.4 billion HKD, aimed at enhancing production capabilities and R&D [1]. - The company is focusing on building a precision optical center to develop specialized materials and optical components for XR smart glasses, which is expected to strengthen its supply chain from materials to end applications [2]. - The main business is stable, with anticipated revenue growth driven by the recovery in North America and the increasing contribution from smart glasses [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 570 million, 690 million, and 890 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 45.8X, 37.5X, and 29.0X [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,061 million CNY in 2024 to 3,401 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 14%, 18%, and 23% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 428 million CNY in 2024 to 894 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 31%, 32%, 22%, and 29% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.03 CNY in 2024 to 1.86 CNY in 2027 [2]. - Key financial metrics indicate a gross margin improvement from 38.58% in 2024 to 41.47% in 2027, and a net profit margin increase from 20.78% to 26.30% over the same period [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the metal packaging industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The metal packaging industry is experiencing steady expansion, with supply-demand pressure alleviating. The two-piece can segment is benefiting from increased beer canning rates, while the three-piece can segment maintains stable demand and superior profitability [9][37] - The industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with expectations for leading companies to recover profitability as capital expenditure cycles peak and production capacity expansion slows [46][65] - The trend of overseas expansion is gaining momentum, with leading companies prioritizing international markets to enhance profit structures [4][65] Summary by Sections 1. Metal Packaging: Industry Steady Expansion, Supply-Demand Pressure Alleviated - The two-piece and three-piece can segments have distinct characteristics, with the two-piece can being lighter and more cost-effective, while the three-piece can offers better strength and print quality [9] - The two-piece can segment saw national sales grow from 47 billion cans in 2019 to 58 billion cans in 2023, with a CAGR of 5.4%. The beer canning rate is projected to rise from 28.9% in 2023 to 36.5% by 2028, contributing to further growth [12][19] - The three-piece can segment's production and demand were approximately 31.05 billion and 30.53 billion cans respectively in 2022, with a stable competitive landscape and superior profitability compared to the two-piece can segment [23][37] 2. Cyclical Turning Point Emerging, Awaiting Profit Recovery for Leaders - The capital expenditure cycle is nearing its peak, with significant production capacity expansion expected to slow down in 2024-2025. The industry is currently experiencing low profitability levels, with limited room for further deterioration [46][50] - The profitability of leading companies is anticipated to improve as supply-demand dynamics stabilize, with potential for slight price increases in 2026 [65] 3. Accelerated Overseas Capacity Layout, Profit Center Expected to Optimize - Leading companies such as Baosteel Packaging, Aorui Jin, and Shengxing have reported significant growth in overseas revenues, with Baosteel's overseas revenue reaching 1.359 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.14% [4] - The overseas market offers better competitive dynamics and higher pricing, leading to improved profit margins compared to domestic operations [4][65] 4. Key Company Profiles - Baosteel Packaging focuses on the two-piece can segment, showing stable performance [4] - Aorui Jin is expanding through acquisitions, particularly with the purchase of COFCO Packaging, indicating strong growth potential [4] - Shengxing has a diversified product matrix, with expected profitability recovery [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" [3] Core Insights - The company plans to invest up to 35 million yuan in Jiangyin Qixin Linghang through a newly established partnership, acquiring a 6.48% stake [3] - Jiangyin Qixin Linghang is in its cultivation and development stage, with projected revenues of 51.71 million yuan in 2024 and 29.10 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, alongside net losses of 36.03 million yuan and 12.91 million yuan respectively [3] - The investment is expected to benefit from the domestic substitution boom in the EDA industry, where U.S. companies dominate with a combined market share of 74% globally and over 80% in the domestic market [3] - The founding team of Qixin Linghang has over 20 years of experience in EDA, which positions the company well for industrialization in this sector [3] - The partnership is anticipated to create synergies in vocational education within the EDA field, leveraging the company's extensive network and resources in vocational training [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,213 million yuan in 2023 to 4,931 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.2% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from 154 million yuan in 2023 to 345 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 1035.2% in 2024 [4] - The company's EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.26 yuan in 2023 to 2.83 yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 31.28 to 13.95 [4]

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Buy [2] - Core Logic: Tianyi Medical, a leading manufacturer of blood purification consumables in China, has strategically acquired to complete the CRRT (Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy) product matrix, establishing a complete ecosystem of "equipment + consumables + services" [5][6] - Expected Performance Growth: The company is anticipated to achieve rapid performance growth driven by the continuous increase in ESRD (End-Stage Renal Disease) patients, policy benefits, and expansion into overseas markets [5][6] Group 2 - Industry Demand: The number of ESRD patients in China is projected to grow from 4.12 million in 2023 to 5.27 million by 2027, with a CAGR of 6.32% from 2023 to 2027, indicating a significant market opportunity [6][15] - Market Expansion: The blood dialysis market in China is expected to reach 51.515 billion yuan by 2030, driven by increasing patient awareness, improved healthcare policies, and advancements in blood purification technologies [6][15] - Treatment Rate: The treatment rate for ESRD patients in China remains low at 24.40%, significantly below developed countries, indicating room for growth in the market [15][46] Group 3 - Business Structure: The company has established three main business pillars: blood purification consumables, CRRT, and ward care, enhancing its competitive advantage through both organic growth and acquisitions [7][8] - Strategic Partnerships: A strategic cooperation with Fresenius Medical is expected to accelerate the growth of the blood purification consumables business, with an estimated first-year supply contract worth 40 million USD starting in 2026 [7][16] - Acquisition Strategy: The company has completed acquisitions to solidify its CRRT product line, becoming one of the few companies globally with a full range of CRRT products, which will enhance its operational capabilities [8][18] Group 4 - Revenue Forecast: The company expects revenues of 514 million yuan, 936 million yuan, and 1.556 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.7%, 82.1%, and 66.3% [9][11] - Net Profit Projection: The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21 million yuan, 96 million yuan, and 234 million yuan, with significant year-on-year growth rates of 2967.9%, 350.4%, and 143.3% [9][11] - Valuation Metrics: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 162, 36, and 15 times respectively, indicating a favorable investment outlook [10][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Tianyi Medical, as a leading manufacturer of blood purification consumables in China, is strategically enhancing its product matrix through acquisitions, establishing a complete ecosystem of "equipment + consumables + services" [5][6] - The company is expected to achieve rapid growth in performance driven by the continuous increase in ESRD patients, the release of policy dividends, and the expansion into overseas markets [5][6] Industry Overview - The demand for blood dialysis is expected to expand significantly, with the number of ESRD patients in China projected to reach 5.27 million by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 6.32% from 2023 to 2027 [6][15] - The treatment rate for ESRD patients in China remains low at 24.40%, indicating substantial room for market growth compared to developed countries [15][46] - The blood dialysis market in China is anticipated to grow to 51.515 billion yuan by 2030, driven by increasing patient awareness, improved healthcare policies, and advancements in blood purification technologies [15][51] Company Overview - Tianyi Medical has established three main business pillars: blood dialysis consumables, CRRT (Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy), and ward care, continuously strengthening its competitive advantage through both organic growth and acquisitions [7][8] - The company has entered into a strategic partnership with Fresenius, which is expected to significantly boost its blood dialysis consumables business, with an estimated first-year supply contract worth 40 million USD starting in 2026 [7][16] - The acquisition of CRRT business assets from Japan's Nikkiso and Italy's BELLCO S.R.L. will enable the company to offer a complete CRRT product line, enhancing its global market presence [8][18] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Tianyi Medical are as follows: 514 million yuan in 2025, 936 million yuan in 2026, and 1.556 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.7%, 82.1%, and 66.3% respectively [9][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 0.21 billion yuan in 2025, 0.96 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.34 billion yuan in 2027, with significant growth rates of 2967.9%, 350.4%, and 143.3% respectively [9][11]

Overview - The funding sentiment has shown a divergence, with a continuous improvement in the funding environment throughout 2025. The net inflow of funds accounted for 6.8% of the free float market value, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to 2024. The net inflow of funds (considering half of dividends) accounted for 4.6% of the free float market value, up by 0.6 percentage points from 2024 [4][11][12]. Group 1: 2025 Funding Environment - Various types of funds, including trading funds, high-net-worth investors, insurance funds, and industrial capital, have shown a strong inflow, leading to a robust funding environment [4][12]. - The leverage funds have seen a significant increase in inflow speed, and private equity funds have surged due to improved regulatory policies and increased demand from high-net-worth investors [12][13]. - The scale of company dividends has reached a historical high, and share buybacks have remained at elevated levels, supporting a strong supply-demand balance in the stock market [12][13]. Group 2: 2026 Funding Outlook - The incremental funding for 2026 is expected to remain promising, with potential structural changes. Resident funds are anticipated to have new inflow channels, continuing the trend of "deposit migration" [12][13]. - Long-term funds, including social security funds and enterprise annuities, are expected to provide a "ballast" effect as their equity positions are currently low [12][13]. - Foreign capital is expected to improve its return speed, with an increase in passive allocation funds to Chinese assets anticipated in 2026 [12][13]. Group 3: Monthly Trends - In December 2025, the net inflow of funds accelerated, primarily due to increased net inflow into ETFs and high dividend payouts from listed companies. The number of new accounts also saw a month-on-month increase [21][22]. - In January 2026, the activity of trading funds significantly increased, with a rapid growth in financing balances, while broad-based ETFs experienced substantial net outflows [21][22]. - The net inflow of thematic and industry ETFs, which are favored by resident funds, maintained a positive trend [21][22]. Group 4: Resident and Institutional Funds - In December 2025, the number of new accounts at the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 2.5967 million, a month-on-month increase of 215,300 accounts [25]. - The financing balance increased by 167.8 billion yuan from January 1 to January 20, 2026, indicating a high level of inflow [21][24]. - The net inflow of private equity funds has also shown a significant increase, with the management scale reaching 70,383.54 billion yuan by November 2025 [24].