2025 年 5 月 23 日 顺丰单量增长超预期，电商快递价格继续承压 [Table_Industry] 物流 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 快递行业月度专题：顺丰单量增长超预期， 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 物流 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 电商快递价格继续承压 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事件：顺丰控股、圆通速递、韵达股份、申通快递发布 Table_Summa ...

[Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com [Table_Industry] 物流 2025 年 5 月 23 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 物流 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 顺丰单量增长超预期，电商快递价格继续承压 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 快递行业月度专题：顺丰单量增长超预期， 电商快递价格继续承压 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事件：顺丰控股、圆通速递、韵达股份、申通快递发布 Table_Summa ...

[Table_StockAndRank] 众生药业(002317) 唐爱金 医药首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 昂拉地韦获批上市，创新药布局进入兑现期 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 宣布 RAY1225注射液治疗肥胖/超重患者的 II期临床试验与 2 型糖尿病 患者的 II 期临床试验两项研究均达到主要终点，同时 III 期临床试验已 陆续完成筹备工作并先后启动。 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]5 月 22 日，国家药品监督管理局网站发布《国家药监局批 准昂拉地韦片上市》的通知，上市公司控股子公司众生睿创自主研发的一类 创新药物昂 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 众生药业(002317) 唐爱金 医药首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 昂拉地韦获批上市，创新药布局进入兑现期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]5 月 22 日，国家药品监督管理局网站发布《国家药监局批 准昂拉地韦片上市》的通知，上市公司控股子公司众生睿创自主研发的一类 创新药物昂拉地韦片（商品名：安睿威®）获得国家药监局批准上市。 RAY1225 注射液是公司研发、具有全球自主知识产权的创新结构多肽 药物，具有 GLP-1 受体和 GIP 受体双重激动活性，得益 ...

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 特朗普"大漂亮"法案闯关进行时 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 23 日 | 一、特朗普减税 2.0 的第一重阻力逐步破除 3 | | --- | | 二、我们预计减税 2.0 快则 7 月落地，慢则 9 月落地 5 | | 三、下半年美债可能还会走高 8 | | 风险因素 9 | | 表 1：美国共和党内部强硬派和温和派的博弈 3 | | --- | | 表 2：2017 年，特朗普税改法案 ...

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 特朗普"大漂亮"法案闯关进行时 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 23 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 特朗普减税法案快速落地存在的阻力，主要源自共和党内部强硬派和温 和派的博弈。自特朗普第二任期以来，其关税和移民政策都已经得到了落 地，而作为三大纲领之一的减税政策尚未落地。除了法案落地需要时间以 通过立法 ...

影石创新招股书梳理：智能影像技术先驱，产品创新驱动成长 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 龚轶之 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030005 邮 箱：gongyizhi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 影石创新招股书梳理：智能影像技术先驱，产 品创新驱动成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信 ...

影石创新招股书梳理：智能影像技术先驱，产品创新驱动成长 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 龚轶之 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030005 邮 箱：gongyizhi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 影石创新招股书梳理：智能影像技术先驱，产 品创新驱动成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue decreased by 8.0% year-on-year to 1.19 yuan, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and route optimization [4] Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for a package volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion parcels in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24%, which is expected to further consolidate its leading market position [5] - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6][7] - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow and profitability, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 10.324 billion, 11.655 billion, and 13.388 billion yuan, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a total revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% increase year-on-year, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue was 1.19 yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and optimized route planning [4] Market Position and Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for high-quality volume growth, targeting a parcel volume of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion in 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 20% to 24% [5] - The report indicates that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6] - The company is expected to maintain its leading market position and achieve steady growth in both volume and profit due to its scale and management advantages [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 10.324 billion yuan, 11.655 billion yuan, and 13.388 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.42%, 12.89%, and 14.87% respectively [8] - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express's current valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for significant upside [7][8]