Core Views - The recent collective rise of the A-share market indices is attributed to the temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, which has improved global market sentiment [2][8] - The market has recovered above 3200 points, indicating a potential end to the recent downward trend driven by emotional short-term selling [2][9] - Despite the positive sentiment, concerns remain regarding the substantial impact of tariffs and the overall market fundamentals, as corporate earnings have not yet fully improved [2][9] Market Overview - On Thursday, the A-share market indices continued to rebound, supported by several favorable factors including state intervention, a wave of stock buybacks by listed companies, and expectations of interest rate cuts [4][5] - The trading volume reached 16,095 billion, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,223.64 points, up 1.16%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.25% [5] - The precious metals sector saw significant activity, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global tariff tensions [6] Sector Performance - The precious metals and consumer sectors, including dairy, food and beverage, and retail, showed strong performance, indicating a shift towards domestic consumption as a key driver for economic recovery in 2025 [7][8] - The recent announcement by the State Taxation Administration to promote "immediate refund" services for overseas travelers has boosted the performance of duty-free and tax refund concept stocks [6][7] Future Market Outlook - Continued attention is required on trade negotiations, as successful outcomes could lead to a rebound in industries with strong export recovery expectations [9] - The report anticipates increased fiscal and monetary policy support in response to the economic goals set during the Two Sessions, which is expected to bolster market sentiment in the medium term [3][9]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 不过，当前关税的实质性影响以及市场基本面仍有隐忧。企业盈利尚未全面 改善，担忧仍有延续。此外，外部扰动未消除。美国加征关税的潜在影响及美股 波动仍可能影响 A 股风险偏好。 后续要关注国内政策的对冲力度。考虑两会中设定的 2025 年的经济目标， 预计后续财政、货币政策都会加大刺激力度。中期支撑基础和提振动力依旧下， 我们仍看好市场中期向好的趋势。因此，短期波动不改中期慢牛格局。接下来又 该如何应对呢？操作上，首先，规避出口关联度高的行业；其次，短期聚焦政策 红利与防御性资产。政策受益方面：军工、半导体、农业等板块仍具弹性。而防 御性配置上，消费、公用事业等低估值高股息资产；最后，中长期布局盈利改善 与成长逻辑。短线高手可高抛低吸。 分析师：惠祥凤 2025 年 4 月 10 日 四大利好助力 A 股反弹，但外部扰动仍未消除，高抛低吸或是占优策略 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三沪深三大指数继续反弹，半导体板块及军工概念股大涨。主要有以下几 个方面的利好：一是国家队紧急驰援。中央汇金等国家队迅速出手。通过 ETF 增 持，给市场注入流动性；二是上市 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 对于 A 股市场来说，短期对出口链影响较大。从行业角度来看，出口关联度 高的行业无疑将受到最直接且显著的影响。风险偏好方面,"对等关税"使得避 险情绪升温，资金流向或发生改变。在 A 股市场，资金流向或出现变化。一方面， 资金涌入避险板块，另一方面，资金从高风险、不确定性较高的板块流出，导致 部分科技股、成长股遭受抛售。市场整体观望情绪浓厚。上周四的市场也验证了 上述逻辑，上周四沪深三大指数集体调整。盘面上看，大消费、贵金属及电力等 防御性板块走强，出口占比较高的板块个股表现不佳，科技股也出现大面积下跌。 每 周 投 资 早 参 2025 年 4 月 7 日 美国"对等关税"落地，对 A 股有哪些影响？地量是否见地价？ 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当地时间 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税"的 行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴征 收更高关税。具体关税税率可查阅相关新闻报道。 商务部新闻发言人就美方宣布"对等关税"发表谈话：中方对此坚决反对， 并将坚决采取反制措施维护 ...

Core Views - Recent market adjustments are attributed to a divergence in market styles, with high-flying technology stocks experiencing volatility while undervalued large-cap stocks perform relatively well [2][15][16] - The market is currently in a phase of cautious sentiment, influenced by factors such as tightening liquidity, upcoming earnings reports, and external uncertainties like U.S. tariffs on China [3][16][19] Market Overview - The A-share market has seen a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.40%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.75%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.12% over the past week [7][19] - The total trading volume across the two exchanges was 11,190 billion, indicating a significant reduction in market activity [6][19] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector has shown resilience, with pharmaceutical stocks gaining traction due to their low valuations and potential for recovery in 2025 [8][9] - Precious metals have seen renewed interest as investors seek safe-haven assets amid rising global trade tensions and declining inflation rates [9][10] - Chemical stocks experienced fluctuations, with some segments like titanium dioxide seeing price increases, but overall performance remains mixed [10][11] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its phase of adjustment, with potential opportunities for low-cost acquisitions as conditions stabilize [4][17] - Short-term pressures on small-cap stocks are anticipated, while large-cap stocks with stable dividends may continue to attract investment [4][17][18] - The industrial machinery sector is highlighted as a promising area for investment, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing manufacturing capabilities [14][18]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment, influenced by uncertainties related to overseas tariffs and the upcoming earnings season, suggesting that the downward trend may not yet be over [3][9] - The total trading volume in the market remains below 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of strength in the overall rebound, with market participants showing a cautious sentiment [3][11] Industry Insights - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in January-February 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 910.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. For the entire year of 2024, the total profit was 74,310.50 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, although December 2024 saw a turnaround with profits increasing by 11.0% compared to November [4][9] - The chemical sector has shown strength, particularly with the price of chemical products like double-seasoned tetramethylol increasing significantly, from 20,000 yuan per ton in October 2024 to 55,000 yuan per ton in March 2025, marking a 175% increase [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests avoiding stocks that have been excessively speculated without clear earnings support, while focusing on sectors expected to outperform during the earnings season [5][10] - It recommends positioning in sectors such as large financials, cyclical stocks, and high-dividend or undervalued consumer stocks during market dips, while maintaining flexibility in trading strategies to capitalize on market fluctuations [5][10] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the current market adjustment may create favorable buying opportunities in the future, with a medium to long-term positive outlook supported by economic resilience and ongoing policy support [4][10] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain cautious in the short term, but the potential for a gradual recovery exists, indicating a slow bull market trend [10]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline in trading volume, dropping to less than 1.3 trillion yuan, primarily due to a pullback in the technology sector and tightening liquidity at the end of the quarter [2][5][9] - Investor risk appetite has decreased, influenced by uncertainties surrounding domestic economic validation and U.S. tariffs on China, leading to increased cautious sentiment among investors [3][9][12] - The market showed a narrow fluctuation with the three major indices closing slightly lower, indicating a lack of strength in the overall rebound [10][12] Sector Performance - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a rise, supported by substantial growth in new installed capacity and improving profitability for downstream companies as silicon material prices stabilize [7][8] - The industrial mother machine concept stocks also experienced gains, driven by the establishment of a high-end intelligent equipment industrial base in Shanghai, which aligns with national policies promoting manufacturing upgrades [8][9] Future Outlook - The report maintains a cautious outlook, suggesting that the downward trend in indices may not have ended, with potential for further declines in the short term [3][11] - Investors are advised to avoid speculative stocks lacking performance support and focus on sectors with strong earnings expectations during the upcoming earnings season [11] - Long-term support for the market remains due to resilient economic growth, ongoing policy support, and expectations of profit recovery, indicating a slow bull market despite short-term adjustments [3][11]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 26 日 成交大幅萎缩，观望情绪增加 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二晨报提醒，周一 A 股市场盘中显著分化，阶段性的调整或未结束。造成 这种分化的原因可能如下：一方面，财报效应与风格切换预期；另一方面，流动 性收缩与资金偏好转向。自 3 月科技股分化以来，市场存量资金博弈明显，资金 倾向于规避业绩不确定性高的小盘股，转向分红稳定、估值低的大盘蓝筹之际， 资金更趋于谨慎。接下来又将如何演绎呢？我们认为，首先，短期小盘股或仍有 压力。其次，中期看，市场风格可能趋于均衡。操作上，一是短期内应避开前期 被过度炒作且业绩尚未明朗的题材股；二是可逢低布局大金融、顺周期、高股息 率或低估值消费板块。 市场走势如我们预期，周二沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，尾盘收绿，短期延续调 整态势。盘面上看，煤炭、电力、银行、消费等防御性板块走强，前期热门的 TMT 赛道回调，泛 AI 主题、人行机器人等概念股跌幅居前。 周二两市成交萎缩至不 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 26 日 成交大幅萎缩，观望情绪增加 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二晨报提醒，周一 A 股市场盘中显著分化，阶段性的调整或未结束。造成 这种分化的原因可能如下：一方面，财报效应与风格切换预期；另一方面，流动 性收缩与资金偏好转向。自 3 月科技股分化以来，市场存量资金博弈明显，资金 倾向于规避业绩不确定性高的小盘股，转向分红稳定、估值低的大盘蓝筹之际， 资金更趋于谨慎。接下来又将如何演绎呢？我们认为，首先，短期小盘股或仍有 压力。其次，中期看，市场风格可能趋于均衡。操作上，一是短期内应避开前期 被过度炒作且业绩尚未明朗的题材股；二是可逢低布局大金融、顺周期、高股息 率或低估值消费板块。 市场走势如我们预期，周二沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，尾盘收绿，短期延续调 整态势。盘面上看，煤炭、电力、银行、消费等防御性板块走强，前期热门的 TMT 赛道回调，泛 AI ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 25 日 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn A 股市场分化下，后市如何演绎？ 接下来又将如何演绎呢？我们认为，首先，短期小盘股或仍有压力。退市制 度深化、年报业绩披露在即，叠加一季度经济数据落地前的观望情绪，小盘股尤 其是 ST 板块可能继续承压，而一旦阶段调整后，部分基本面扎实、行业前景向 好（如科技）的中小盘股可能迎来超跌反弹；其次，中期看，市场风格可能趋于 均衡。在财报季和政策过渡期，业绩确定性高、分红稳定的蓝筹股或持续受益。 后市若稳增长政策发力见效，小盘股中的高景气赛道仍会有估值修复，市场有望 逐步迎来均衡。 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 造成这种分化的原因可能如下：一方面，财报效应与风格切换预期。市场 进入 3 月下旬以及 4 月的业绩验证临界点，市场预期资金可能提前转向业绩确定 性更高的大盘蓝筹股，导致中小市值风格胜率和超额收益回落；另一方面，流动 性收缩与资金偏好转向。近期市场成交基本于 1.5 万亿元附近 ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is facing pressure as it has fallen below the 3400-point mark, with significant selling pressure from last year's trapped investors in the 3400-3500 point range [4][19] - The recent trading volume has shrunk, suggesting a lack of upward momentum in the short term, and the market may experience further adjustments [4][19] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the report maintains a positive outlook for the medium term, supported by economic resilience, ongoing policy support, and profit recovery expectations [4][19] Sector Analysis Marine Economy - Marine economy stocks, particularly shipbuilding and marine engineering, have shown resilience and growth, driven by government policies promoting the development of the marine economy [10][12] - The report highlights the strategic importance of deep-sea technology as a key area for development, which is expected to bolster the shipbuilding industry [10][12] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - The TCM sector has been active, with government initiatives aimed at enhancing quality and promoting the industry, indicating potential structural upgrades and increased market concentration [13] - The report suggests that 2025 may see significant improvements in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly for TCM products, due to the aging population and recovery in consumer demand [13] Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector, particularly wind power equipment, is showing signs of strength, with expectations for a technical rebound as the market adjusts from previous declines [14] - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for renewable energy solutions in line with national carbon neutrality goals, making this sector attractive for investment [14] Financial and High Dividend Stocks - The report recommends focusing on financial stocks and high dividend yield stocks as they are expected to perform well in the current low-interest-rate environment [16] - It advises investors to selectively enter these stocks during market dips, as they typically come from stable and profitable companies [16] Precious Metals - Precious metals, particularly gold, have seen increased interest as a safe-haven asset amid rising global trade tensions and declining inflation rates [17] - The report warns of potential corrections in gold prices after recent increases, advising investors to be cautious [17] Brain-Computer Interface Technology - The brain-computer interface sector has gained attention due to recent technological advancements and government support for neurotechnology, indicating a promising investment opportunity [18] - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for this sector while advising short-term trading strategies [18]