| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n市场指数 指数名称 | —— \n收盘价 | 晨会聚焦 \n 涨跌 | % | 2024 年 12 月 17 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241217 | | 上证综指 | | 3386 ...

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宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 宏观策略评论 2024 年 12 月 16 日 经济形势跟踪： 稳增长政策态度如何落地 是市场关注焦点 积极的政策态度再次被确认：在 12 月 9 日的政治局会议，以及 12 月 11-12 日的中央经济工作会议上，党中央体现了比 9 月政治局会议更为明确的 稳增长态度，释放了更为积极的政策态度。 市场预期已经因为政策态度而明显上扬：从政策转向后的 10 月和 11 月 经济数据来看，实体经济中各经济主体对政策态度早已没有疑虑，对经 济预期也明显提升。受预期改善的带动，实体经济中自发的经济活动已 经有所回暖。第一，制造业 PMI 显示我国内需在 10 月和 11 月明显修复； 第二，地产销售改善带动地产开发商售房回款改善。但地产销售的回暖 并未向地产投资传导；第三，餐饮零售和汽车销售的绝对规模在 11 月进 一步走高，但商品零售规模有所回落；第四、投资品相关行业"淡季不太 淡"。 当下市场的关注焦点已经转向稳增长的政策态度如何落地：后续各部委 如何对中央经济工作会议的方针做细化，会明显影响市场对政策态度落 地效果的预期。因为对未来刺激政策效果仍然有疑虑，且宽松货币政策 向实体经 ...

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Core Insights - The macroeconomic policy for 2024 will be more proactive and coordinated, focusing on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [2][3] - The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining stable economic growth, employment, and overall price stability by 2025 [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of promoting consumption as a key task for expanding domestic demand in 2024 [4] Industry Performance - The report indicates that the light manufacturing and comprehensive sectors are expected to perform well, with projected increases of 19.8% [5] - The banking sector is also expected to see a growth of 5.1%, while the real estate sector is projected to decline by 3.26% [5] Transportation Sector - The domestic civil aviation fleet has grown from 204 aircraft in 1990 to 4,270 in 2023, representing over 20 times growth [9][10] - The average growth rate of the fleet is expected to be 3.72% over the next three years, with passenger volume projected to exceed 700 million in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [9][11][12] Real Estate Sector - The "Big Old Renovation" initiative will be a primary focus for the real estate industry in 2025, with an emphasis on urban village renovations and dilapidated housing [15][16] - The report estimates that the initial phase of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations could require an investment of approximately 1.45 to 2.11 trillion yuan [15] - The acquisition of idle land and unsold properties is highlighted as a key strategy for inventory reduction [16][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in core first- and second-tier cities, as they are likely to benefit from market recovery [21][22] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines in the aviation sector, and several real estate firms in the property sector [12][22]

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Economic Data Overview - In November, new social financing (社融) was 2.34 trillion yuan, below the expected 2.9 trillion yuan, and down 119.7 billion yuan year-on-year[2][4] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 7.8%, slightly below the expected 7.9%[2][4] - New RMB loans in November were 522.3 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 920.8 billion yuan, and down 589.7 billion yuan year-on-year[5][4] Monetary Supply and Trends - M2 growth was 7.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from October[10] - M1 decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed by 2.4 percentage points compared to October[10] - M0 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from October[10] Deposit and Loan Dynamics - Total new deposits in November were 2.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of 360 billion yuan year-on-year, influenced by declines in non-bank and resident deposits[12] - New loans totaled 580 billion yuan, with corporate loans down 572.1 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak demand from enterprises[13] - Resident medium- and long-term loans improved, reflecting a recovery in the real estate market[13] Policy Implications - The shift in monetary policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose" aims to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, with liquidity expected to be "ample" going forward[17] - The effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating real economic growth remains uncertain, particularly regarding sustained financing demand from the real economy[17] Risk Factors - Global inflation is declining slowly, and the pace of economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S. is accelerating, posing risks to the domestic economy[18]