证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 3 月 17 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250317 ■重点关注 【计算机】软通动力*杨思睿 郑静文。软通动力是国内 IT 服务领军企业， 收购同方计算机后开启"软硬一体"战略，在鸿蒙加速发展、信创政策落地、 人形机器人训练速度有望加快的背景下，软通动力有望迎来较大发展机遇。 市场指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3419.56 | 1.81 | | 深证成指 | 10978.30 | 2.26 | | 沪深 300 | 4006.56 | 2.43 | | 中小 100 | 6815.11 | 2.12 | | 创业板指 | 2226.72 | 2.80 | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料 | 5.41 | 钢铁 | (0.52) | | 非银金融 | 3.97 | 煤炭 | (0.12) | | 商贸零售 | 3.18 | 国防军工 | 0.13 | | 汽车 | 2.91 | 公用事业 ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 17 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20250316 国际油价震荡，维生素、聚合 MDI 价格下跌 3 月份建议关注：1、三四月份旺季可能涨价的品种，如农化、纺织化学用品、制冷剂等；2、年 报季报行情，如大型能源央企、轻烃裂解子行业龙头公司等；3、下游行业快速发展，建议关注 部分电子材料、新能源材料公司；4、宏观经济整体预期改善，行业龙头价值公司进入长期可配 置区间。 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 联系人：赵泰 行业动态 投资建议 风险提示 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20250309》20250309 《《2025 年政府工作报告》化工行业相关要点 及解读》20250306 《化工行业周报 20250302》20250303 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 一般证券业务证书编号：S130 ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 17 日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 3月 第 2 周周报 新能源汽车销量强劲，光伏产业链价格调涨 光伏方面，本周光伏产业链各环节均出现涨价迹象；供给侧改革持续推进， 中央经济工作会议明确提出综合整治"内卷式"竞争，发改委主任表示将出台 化解重点产业结构矛盾的具体方案，光伏供给侧改革力度有望加强。在供需 双方作用下，我们预计当前涨价具备一定持续性，但需考虑 6 月后需求持续 性。重点关注 2025 年硅料、电池片、头部企业格局优化、盈利提升以及金 属化新技术渗透率提升。风电方面，国内海陆风招标及建设有望稳步推进， 2025 年需求向好或带动整机与零部件环节盈利修复；同时伴随国内项目招标 动工、海外利率下行及项目规划推进，海外及出海需求亦相对旺盛。建议优 先配置盈利有望改善的整机及锻铸件环节，受益于海风、出海逻辑的整机、 桩基、海缆环节。新能源车方面，政府工作报告提出大力发展智能网联新能 源汽车，全年销量有望保持高增，带动电池和材料需求增长。近期受供需影 响，部分材料环节出现涨价，有望带动盈利回升，2025 年或迎来量利齐升。 新技术方面，固态 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 3 月 16 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 美国关税政策从不确定性到确定性 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 人民币风险资产价格表现好于避险资产。本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.59%， 沪深 300 股指期货上涨 1.59%；焦煤期货本周上涨 0.32%，铁矿石主力合 约本周上涨 1.68%；股份制银行理财预期收益率持平于 1.90%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率下跌 5BP 至 1.28%；十年国债收益率上行 3BP 至 1.83%，活 跃十年国债期货本周下跌-0.04%。 资产配置建议 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。特朗普自 2025 年 1 月就职 以来，以关税政策威胁国际贸易伙伴，截至目前其关税政策的进展情况包 括：对全球，2025 年 2 月 10 日宣布对所有进口钢铁和铝征收 25%关税， 并于 3 月 12 日正式生效；对加墨两国，进口商品加征 25%关税于 3 月 4 日生效，后对符合《美墨加协定》优惠条件的商品免征关税；对中国，自 2025 年 2 月 4 日起，对所有原产于中国（含香港）的 ...

中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 策略周报 指数延续上行需要的条件 短期市场出现高低切换再均衡，静待宏观政策发力续补指数上行动力。 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 3 月 16 日 风格的短期均衡化与长期反转。本周市场延续中枢上行的震荡格 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 3 月 16 日 2 月金融数据点评 5 月之前货币政策或有望继续宽松 2 月新增社融和新增信贷低于万得一致预期；2 月央行公开市场净回笼带动 M0 同比增速回落；关注居民存款向人民币资产搬家的情况。 相关研究报告 《中银量化大类资产配置双周报 – 20250310》20250311 《春节因素扰动 CPI 回落，推动价格合理回升 任重道远》20250310 《周度金融市场跟踪》20250310 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 风险提示：全球通胀二次上行；欧美经济回落速度偏快；国际局势复杂化。 2 月新增社融 2.23 万亿元，较去年同期多增 7374 亿元，较 1 月少增 4.82 万亿元，低于万得一致预期的 2.65 万亿元。2 月社融 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance forecast for the company in 2024, with expected revenue growth of 32.39% year-on-year, reaching 17.907 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 34.29%, amounting to 1.878 billion yuan [6][5][7] - The PCB business is positioned to capitalize on structural opportunities, particularly in the AI computing and automotive electronics markets, with a revenue increase of 29.99% year-on-year, totaling 10.494 billion yuan [7][8] - The packaging substrate business is also expected to grow, with a revenue increase of 37.49% year-on-year, reaching 3.171 billion yuan, despite facing challenges such as rising raw material costs and fluctuating market demand [8][6] Summary by Sections Stock Recommendations - The report lists a selection of stocks to focus on, including Jitu Express (1519.HK), China Petroleum (601857.SH), and others, indicating a diversified investment strategy [1] Market Performance - The report provides an overview of market indices, noting a decline in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which closed at 3358.73, down 0.39% [3] Company Financials - The company is projected to achieve a gross margin of 24.83% in 2024, an increase of 1.40 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 10.48%, up 0.15 percentage points [6][7] - In Q4 2024, the company is expected to report a revenue of 4.858 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.51% [6] Business Segments - The PCB segment is expected to see significant growth driven by demand in telecommunications and data centers, with a gross margin of 31.62% [7] - The packaging substrate segment is focusing on capability building and market development, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing production capacity [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high growth in its PCB business by leveraging structural opportunities, while its packaging substrate business is accelerating the introduction of high-end products [3][5]. - The company is projected to generate revenues of RMB 21.33 billion, RMB 24.96 billion, and RMB 29.04 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 2.73 billion, RMB 3.20 billion, and RMB 3.58 billion [5][7]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 17.91 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.39%, and a net profit of RMB 1.88 billion, up 34.29% year-on-year [8]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is RMB 5.33, with a PE ratio of 23.9 times [5][7]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is expected to be RMB 4.16 billion, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [7][8]. Business Performance - The PCB segment achieved a revenue of RMB 10.49 billion in 2024, growing by 29.99% year-on-year, driven by demand in the communication and automotive electronics sectors [8]. - The packaging substrate business generated RMB 3.17 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 37.49%, despite facing challenges such as rising raw material costs [8]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the potential recovery in the packaging substrate market and the continuous optimization of the company's project capabilities, driven by AI and automotive electronics [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with new home sales in first-tier cities experiencing significant growth due to favorable policies, while lower-tier cities remain under pressure [1][4] - The land auction premium rate has reached a new high in 42 months, indicating increased competition for land in key cities [1][4] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In February, new home sales in 40 cities totaled 775.7 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.2% [4][9] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year increase in new home sales, with Shenzhen up 138%, Shanghai up 90%, Beijing up 44%, and Guangzhou up 19% [4][10] - Cumulatively, new home sales in first-tier cities increased by 9.0% year-on-year for January-February [4][10] Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales in February showed a year-on-year increase of 62.8%, marking the ninth consecutive month of positive growth [4][5] - The cumulative sales for January-February in 18 cities increased by 21.4% year-on-year [4][5] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of February, the tracked new home inventory in 12 cities was 11.33 million square meters, down 1.3% month-on-month and down 15.1% year-on-year [4][10] - The overall absorption cycle for new homes is 14.5 months, reflecting a slight increase month-on-month but a decrease year-on-year [4][10] Land Market - The land market saw a seasonal decline in transaction volume in February, but the average premium rate reached 8.7%, the highest since August 2021 [4][10] - The average land price in first-tier cities was 23,019 yuan per square meter, up 55.4% year-on-year [4][10] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales amount of 192.2 billion yuan in February, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [4][10] - The land acquisition amount for these companies in February was 76.4 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 84.4% [4][10] Policy Environment - The government has emphasized the need to boost demand in the real estate sector, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting urban renewal [4][10] - The government work report outlines comprehensive measures to support the real estate market, including the promotion of affordable housing and urban renewal projects [4][10] Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market in February, with an absolute return of 5.4% and a relative return of 3.5% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [4][10] - The sector's performance is attributed to pre-conference policy expectations and positive sales during the Spring Festival [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Over Market" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market continues to show positive year-on-year growth in transaction volumes, with government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [1][3]. - New housing transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month, while year-on-year growth has expanded [3]. - The report highlights four key measures from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to stabilize the housing market, including policy adjustments and urban renewal initiatives [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of March 1 to March 7, 2025, new housing transaction area decreased month-on-month, while year-on-year growth increased [12]. - The transaction volume for new homes in 40 cities was 21,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 27.2% but a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [13]. - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 8,882 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.1% [40]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions in 100 cities was 1,688.3 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 17.1% and a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [9]. - The total price of land transactions was 47.42 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 34.8% and a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [9]. 3. Industry Policy Review - The government work report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market and implement measures to boost housing demand while preventing risks [3]. - The Ministry of Housing has proposed four initiatives to support the market, including urban renewal and the acquisition of existing housing stock [3]. 4. Sector Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was -0.9%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous week [10]. - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) was 20.97X, a slight increase from the previous week [10]. 5. Company Announcements - The report includes a summary of key company announcements within the real estate sector for the week [10]. 6. Real Estate Company Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 20.09 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 111.0% and a year-on-year increase of 40.8% [10].