行业研究 战新产业聚焦 半导体材料国产替代破局之道：从技术突围到生态构建 文/王婷 摘要 受半导体产业景气周期、终端需求迭代等因素影响，全球半导体材料市场规模呈现 "长期增长、周期波动"的特征，区域版图正随产业链转移与国产化浪潮加速重构。我 国半导体材料整体在中低端领域已形成一定产能规模并取得阶段性成果，但是在高端领 域仍存在较高进口依赖，核心"卡脖子"环节尚未全面突破，破局需以技术攻坚与生态 构建双轮驱动，一方面推动产学研协同与数字化赋能，打通研发到转化关键环节；另一 方面加强产业生态系统性构建，夯实可持续发展基础。近年来，我国出台一系列专项支 持政策，为半导体材料产业发展提供坚实支撑，形成全方位赋能体系，通过明确战略方 向、布局中试平台、实施保险补偿等举措，推动产业高质量发展。当前受行业周期性波 动、技术和认证壁垒以及企业产能布局节奏等因素影响，半导体材料细分领域盈利分化 显著，需关注业绩承压企业的经营变化。展望未来，在技术突破、生态完善、政策赋能 等多重因素驱动下，半导体材料行业将向质量与安全并重、自主与开放协同的高质量发 展进阶，同时，企业需依托自身优势探索突围路径。 正文 3 行业概况 半导体材料作 ...

| 作者 | | 萧瑟 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编辑 | | 小白 | 近期，深南电路（002916.SZ）发布了业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润31.54亿至33.42亿，同比增长 68.0%至78.0%；扣非净利润29.93亿至31.67亿，同比增长72.0%至82.0%。 PCB内资第二、封装基板内资第一。 （来源：深南电路公告） AI服务器带来的海量需求下，只要不是技术实力特别差的PCB公司，年内都能取得不错的业绩，这是 我们事先能猜到的。 但除此之外，这家公司是否还有其他值得关注的地方呢？ 其中四季度的盈利情况尤其亮眼，单季归母净利润8.28亿至10.16亿，同比增幅高达112.7%至 160.9%。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | | | | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 | 315,431.00 | | N | 334,206.66 | 187,756.55 | | 股东的净利润 | 比上年同期增长 | 68.00% | 2 | 78.00% | | | 扣除非经常性损 | | 299,258. ...

Group 1 - The Digital Economy ETF ICBC (561220) opened at a decline of 0.26%, priced at 1.535 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Digital Economy ETF include companies like SMIC, which fell by 1.89%, and Haiguang Information, which dropped by 1.54% [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the China Securities Index for State-Owned Enterprises in the Digital Economy, managed by ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management [1] Group 2 - Since its inception on May 21, 2025, the fund has achieved a return of 54.05%, while its return over the past month has been -0.65% [1] - The fund manager is Shi Baojiao, indicating a specific leadership in managing the ETF [1]

行 2026 年 02 月 10 日 AI PCB/存储/服务器业绩高增，封 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《生益电子（688183）深度：受益 AI ASIC 与交换机速率升级（AI 硬件系列之 6）》 2025/12/30 《江丰电子（300666）点评：定增拟募资 19.5 亿元，投资靶材及静电吸盘等项目》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 袁航 A0230521100002 yuanhang@swsresearch.com 杨紫璇 A0230524070005 yangzx@swsresearch.com 陈俊兆 A0230124100001 chenjz@swsresearch.com 联系人 姜安然 A0230125070008 jiangar@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the PCB industry chain, anticipating high growth in 2025 and sustained prosperity in 2026 [1]. Core Insights - The PCB industry is expected to experience significant growth in 2025, driven by increasing demand for AI computing power and the upgrade of PCBs towards high-performance and high-density products. This includes a rise in demand for high-layer boards and advanced HDI products, which will also boost related sectors such as high-end copper-clad laminates, drilling consumables, and equipment [4][61]. - Despite some disruptions in Q4 2025 performance, the growth logic for 2026 remains intact, with new computing platforms and technologies like orthogonal backplanes and CoWoP expected to enhance product value significantly [4][61]. Summary by Sections PCB - Q4 2025 performance may face disruptions, but the growth logic for 2026 remains unchanged. The demand for high-layer and advanced HDI PCBs is increasing, leading to high growth rates for companies like Shenghong Technology, Huadian Co., and Shennan Circuit, with projected net profits of 43.60 billion, 38.22 billion, and 32.48 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 277.68%, 47.74%, and 73.00% [13][14]. Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) - The CCL sector is expected to see high growth in 2025, benefiting from increased demand for high-end products driven by AI computing power and price adjustments. Major CCL manufacturers are projected to achieve significant profit increases, with companies like Shengyi Technology expected to report a net profit of 33.50 billion, a year-on-year increase of 92.50% [36][41]. Drilling Tools and Equipment - The drilling tool sector is anticipated to exceed market expectations in 2025, with companies like DingTai High-Tech projected to achieve a net profit of 4.35 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 91.74%. This growth is driven by increased demand for high-end PCBs and the optimization of product structures [48][49]. - Equipment demand is expected to rise due to the expansion of PCB production capacity, with companies like Dazhu CNC and Chip Quik projected to see significant profit increases, driven by the growing market for PCB-specific processing equipment [55][57].

Summary of Shennan Circuits Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shennan Circuits (002916.SZ) - **Industry**: Printed Circuit Board (PCB) and Integrated Circuit (IC) substrate manufacturing Key Points Financial Performance - **4Q25 Preliminary Net Income**: Rmb828 million to Rmb1.0 billion, with a midpoint of Rmb922 million, representing a **137% YoY increase** and **7% higher** than estimates [1][4] - **Revenue Growth**: Expected revenue for 2025E is revised to Rmb23.1 billion, up **1%** from previous estimates, with further increases projected for 2026E and 2027E [10] Business Expansion and Strategy - **AI PCB Capacity Expansion**: The company is expanding its AI PCB production capacity in Nantong and Thailand, aiming to improve production yield rates [1] - **Product Mix Upgrade**: Focus on high-end products such as AI PCBs for AI servers, optical transceivers, and switches [1] - **IC Substrate Business**: Benefiting from rising demand in the memory sector, leading to increased pricing and utilization rates [1] Market Position and Outlook - **Market Leadership**: Shennan is expected to maintain its leading position in the local AI PCB market and expand into the ASIC AI server PCB supply chain by 2027E [1] - **Positive Growth Outlook**: The company is projected to see continuous growth driven by product mix upgrades and capacity expansions [1] Earnings Revisions - **Net Income Estimates**: Revised upwards by **3%** for 2025E, with **7%** and **12%** increases for 2026E and 2027E respectively, reflecting higher revenues from AI PCB and BT substrate [4][10] Valuation and Price Target - **12-Month Price Target**: Increased to Rmb290, based on a target P/E of **38x** for 2026E EPS, reflecting higher expected growth rates [10][16] - **Current Price**: Rmb246.05, indicating an upside potential of **17.9%** [17] Risks - **Downside Risks**: Include slower-than-expected expansion into AI PCB, increased competition leading to ASP erosion, customer concentration risks, and slower growth in server/automotive PCB and IC substrate markets [16] Additional Insights - **Revenue Mix**: The contribution from Datacom PCB and IC substrate is expected to rise significantly from 2025 to 2027E [2] - **Gross Margin Trends**: Projected gross margins are expected to stabilize around **28.2%** for 2025E, with slight fluctuations in subsequent years [10][15] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Shennan Circuits, highlighting its financial performance, strategic initiatives, market outlook, and associated risks.

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of February 6, the margin trading balance in A-shares is 26,636.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.6% of the A-share circulating market value [1] Group 1: Margin Trading Data - The margin trading transaction amount on the same day was 191.166 billion yuan, down by 8.185 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 8.83% of the A-share transaction amount [1] - All 31 primary industries in Shenwan showed a net repayment status, with the non-ferrous metals industry having the highest net repayment amount of 2.052 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - A total of 21 individual stocks had a net buying amount exceeding 100 million yuan, with Hunan Gold leading at a net buying amount of 404.146 million yuan [2] - Other notable stocks with significant net buying amounts include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Shenzhen South Circuit, Shuangliang Energy, Jiangfeng Electronics, Hongda Shares, Starlight Intelligent Drive, CITIC Securities, Zhongtung High-Tech, and Tianfu Communication [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview 1. PCB (Printed Circuit Board) - The PCB sector has shown weak performance since Q4 of last year, primarily due to divergent market views on orthogonal backplane solutions, with some believing they may be replaced by copper cables/CPO or delayed until 2028. However, the orthogonal backplane is currently progressing steadily and is expected to enter mass production in H2 2027. Leading companies are experiencing stock price stagnation due to these divergences, highlighting their cost-effectiveness. Recommended companies include Dongshan Precision, Shenghong Technology, and Huidian Co. [1] - The CoWoP (Chip on Wafer on PCB) solution has stronger certainty, can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and bypass the shortage of substrate capacity. The value per square meter of PCB may increase several times, potentially reaching tenfold, with product launches expected by the end of 2027 and full implementation in 2028. Recommended companies in this direction include Pengding Holdings, Shennan Circuit, and Xinsong Technology. [1] 2. Storage - Contract prices remain in an upward cycle despite fluctuations in spot prices. Module companies are expected to see explosive Q1 performance, with Jiangbolong and Demingli realizing low-priced inventory. Recommended design companies include Zhaoyi Innovation (with a profit expectation of 6 billion) and Puran Co., Beijing Junzheng, and Hengshuo Co. [2] - Demand for memory modules is driven by AI servers and general servers, with recommendations for Lanke Technology (long-term profit of 10 billion) and Jucheng Co. (long-term profit of 1.5 billion). [2] 3. Communication - The recent decline in optical modules is related to the pullback of US tech stocks and speculation around CPO concepts. However, industry sources (such as Coherent and Xuchuang) indicate that CPO's potential to replace optical modules in ScaleOut scenarios is low, suggesting that short-term speculation may be excessive. [2] - North American cloud service providers have exceeded capital expenditure guidance for 2026 (620 billion, up 65% year-on-year), indicating potential accelerated demand for optical modules in 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include Nvidia's quarterly report (February 26), GTC conference (March), and OFC exhibition (NPO product showcase). Recommended companies include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng, and Dongshan Precision. [2] - For copper connections as a Plan B alternative to orthogonal backplanes, companies to watch include Luxshare Precision, Wokai Nuclear Materials, and Huiju Technology (with potential for stock doubling). [2] - The price of scattered fiber has surged in the short term (from 25 to 50 yuan), but the low willingness of operators to raise prices raises doubts about long-term sustainability. [2] 4. Computing - Domestic computing resources are in short supply, with the recent downtime of Qianwen highlighting the scarcity of AI foundational resources. The demand for CPUs is expected to rise due to increased usage of agents compared to chatbots. Recommended companies include Haiguang Information (benefiting from both CPU and GPU), Cambrian (leading domestic AI chip manufacturer), and Tianshu Zhixin (expected to accelerate integration with leading players). [2] - Cloud infrastructure resources are expected to benefit from price increases, with recommendations for Kingsoft Cloud, Wangsu Technology, and Fourth Paradigm. [2] - In the AI application sector, the recent drop in overseas software and restructuring of SaaS business models may lead to a narrative reversal with the launch of native agent products in Q3 2026. Companies to watch include Alibaba for 2C entry reconstruction and third-party AI agents like TaxFriend, Zhongkong Technology, and Dingjie Smart. [2] 5. Media - Tencent has faced a decline due to market concerns over potential tax increases on internet platforms, although there is no space for increased game value-added tax. The company remains recommended despite rumors of Q4 earnings downgrades, maintaining a PE ratio of 15 times, which still offers value. [3] - The download situation for the Yuanbao app remains stable, and Tencent's AI capabilities may be closing the gap with larger competitors. [3] - In gaming, companies with upcoming catalysts such as Giant Network and Perfect World are recommended for short-term focus, while Century Huatong and Kaiying Network are suggested for medium to long-term attention due to expected catalysts. [3] - Tencent's establishment of a separate AI comic app is beneficial for the production side, which is entering a period of profitability. Recommendations include Kuaishou, Huanrui, and Rongxin. [3] 6. Pharmaceuticals - Attention is drawn to the update of the essential drug catalog, which may accelerate progress. [4] - The probability of inclusion in the essential drug catalog is high for unique products, with several specific products from companies like Jichuan Pharmaceutical and Panlong Pharmaceutical being highlighted. [4] - Emphasis on the global competitiveness of the innovative drug industry chain, with a focus on new-generation ADCs, IOs, small nucleic acids, and CGT. Recommended companies include Kanghong, Yingen, Yunding, and Chengdu Xian Dao. [4] - The brain-computer interface theme is noted, with a potential showcase of non-invasive products during the Spring Festival and a semi-invasive product approval for Borui Kang in March. [4] - Recommendations include Meihua Medical, Dongwei Semiconductor, and Sanbo Brain Science. [5] - The surgical robot sector is expected to see comprehensive implementation of charging policies before August, with overseas orders doubling and maintaining high growth in 2027. Key types include laparoscopic and orthopedic robots, with strong overseas performance for laparoscopic robots. Recommended companies include MicroPort, Jingfeng Medical, Tianzhihang, and Sanyou Medical. [6]

Group 1 - On February 6, a total of 3,771 A-shares received financing funds for purchase, with 378 stocks having purchase amounts exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - The top three stocks by financing purchase amount were Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, with amounts of 2.579 billion yuan, 2.098 billion yuan, and 1.696 billion yuan respectively [1] - One stock had a financing purchase amount accounting for over 30% of the total transaction amount, with Zhend Medical, Chutian Expressway, and Xiechang Technology ranking highest at 38.43%, 27.3%, and 25.42% respectively [1] Group 2 - There were 21 stocks with a net financing purchase exceeding 100 million yuan, with Hunan Gold, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Shenzhen South Circuit ranking highest at 404 million yuan, 404 million yuan, and 283 million yuan respectively [1]

持股过节，关注成长 ——2026年2月五维行业比较观点 策略组 张宇生 SAC编号：S0930521030001 策略组 王国兴 SAC编号：S0930524070013 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 核心观点 2026年2月8日 证券研究报告 1 国海富兰克林基金 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 五维行业比较框架介绍。股价表现受多重因素影响，单一指标难以有效指导行业比较。想要做好行业比较，需要对各种可能 影响股价的因素均进行分析并做出综合判断，并且对于未来可能的市场主导因素，应该赋予更高的权重。基于此，我们综合 市场风格、基本面、资金面、交易面、估值五个维度，构建了"五维行业比较框架" ，在非财报季时期，我们对于五个维 度进行等权打分，而在财报季，则给予基本面维度更高权重，并降低市场风格及估值维度的权重。 历史回测来看，五维行业比较框架表现优异，得分越高的行业表现往往更好。通过复盘2016年至2025年2月期间五维行业比 较框架的历史表现，可以发现该框架下得分越高的行业股价表现往往更好，按得分高低将行业依次分为第1组、第2组 、第3 组、第4组、第5组，各组的年化收益率分别为11.8%、1.3%、-1.4%、 ...