策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 3 月 2 日 市场进入"两会"交易窗口期，风格或有轮动，科技虽有调整但预期幅度有 限，"两会"后、财报季，波动过后或将开启新一轮行情。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 策略周报 科技波动无需悲观，蓄力后仍有向上动力 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522 ...

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 3 月 2 日 中银量化大类资产周报 市场短期回调，融资余额创新高，但增幅比例 未处于较大压力位 股票市场概览 本周 A 股下跌，港股下跌，美股下跌，其他海外权益市场走势分化。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位；红利风 格拥挤度当前仍处于历史较低位置，近期快速下降。 小盘 vs 大盘：小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度持续处于历史低位；大盘风 格近期拥挤度下降至历史较低位置。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓：微盘股拥挤度持续处于历史极高分位，超额净值 近期下跌；基金重仓拥挤度近一年波动剧烈，当前处于历史高位，超额 累计净值处于历史低位。 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 资金面与动量/反转风格：当前资金总量处于长期下降阶段，反转较动量 长期占优，与经验一致。 A 股行情及成交热度 本周领涨的行业为钢铁、建筑、非银行金融；领跌的行业为通信、传 媒、计算机。 A 股估值与股债性价比 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为商贸零售、非银行金融、汽 车，居后的行业为医药、电力设备及新能源、石油石化。 利率市场 本周中国国债利率下跌，美国国债利率下 ...

光伏方面，新能源上网电价市场化改革有望推动我国光伏抢装推动需求增 长；供给侧改革持续推进，中央经济工作会议明确提出综合整治"内卷式" 竞争，供给侧改革力度有望加强。在供需双方作用下，短期光伏产业链可期 待涨价。重点关注 2025 年硅料、电池片、头部企业格局优化、盈利提升以 及金属化新技术渗透率提升。风电方面，国内海陆风招标及建设有望稳步推 进，2025 年需求向好或带动整机与零部件环节盈利修复；同时伴随国内项目 招标动工、海外利率下行及项目规划推进，海外及出海需求亦相对旺盛。建 议优先配置盈利有望改善的整机及锻铸件环节，受益于海风、出海逻辑的整 机、桩基、海缆环节。新能源车方面，2025 年汽车以旧换新政策细则出台， 有望带动 2025 全年销量继续提升，产业链需求有望增长。近期受供需影响， 部分材料环节出现涨价，有望带动盈利回升，2025 年或迎来量利齐升。新技 术方面，固态电池产业化持续发酵，2027 年或实现量产，在相关领域有布局 的电池、材料和设备企业有望受益。建议优先布局格局较优的电芯环节，海 外客户放量以及一体化布局较优的部分中游材料环节。电力设备领域，国内 持续推动电力体制改革，有望推动特高压 ...

人民币资产价格本周普遍调整。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 2.13%；焦煤期货本周下跌 3.27%，铁矿石主力合约本周下 跌 4.41%；股份制银行理财预期收益率收于 1.90%，余额宝 7 天年化收益 率上涨 10BP 至 1.35%；十年国债收益率持平于 1.72%，活跃十年国债期 货本周下跌 0.05%。 资产配置建议 本期观点（2025.3.2） 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 3 月 2 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 两会即将召开，稳增长或从三方面入手 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注'增量'政策落实情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注四季度稳增长政策出台情况和实际效果 | 不变 | | 一年内 | - | 欧美经济前景仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注'增量'政策落实情况 | 超配 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 3 月 2 日 2025 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评 2 月制造业产、需均有回升 2 月制造业产、需均有回升。"抢出口"对部分上游行业需求有所支撑。2 月非制造业 PMI 指数环比小幅回升。 qi.chen@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110003 2 月制造业产、需均有回升。2025 年 2 月，制造业 PMI 指数为 50.2%， 环比（1 月，下同）回升 1.1 个百分点；春节假期后，制造企业复工复产 加速，景气度回升至扩张区间。着眼重要细分项，2 月新订单指数 51.1%， 环比回升 1.9 个百分点，其中，新出口订单指数环比回升 2.2 个百分点， 实现 48.6%。生产指数实现 52.5%，环比回升 2.7 个百分点；原材料库存 指数为 47.0%，继续下滑 0.7 个百分点；产成品库存指数为 48.3%，环比 回升 1.8 个百分点；从业人员指数为 48.6%，环比回升 0.5 个百分点；供 货商配送时间指数为 51.0%，环比回升 0.7 个百分点。企业预期方面，制 造业生产经营活动预期指数实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, suggesting a "stronger than the market" rating for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new and second-hand housing transaction volumes have shown positive growth on a month-on-month basis, although the year-on-year growth rates have narrowed due to the impact of the Spring Festival [2][5]. - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle have both decreased, indicating a tightening market [5][11]. - The land market has seen both volume and price increases, with a notable rise in land transaction values and a decrease in premium rates [5][9]. - The issuance of domestic bonds by real estate companies has increased significantly, reflecting a recovery in financing conditions [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes and market indicators, particularly in the lead-up to the Two Sessions, which could influence market stability and recovery [5][9]. Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market Tracking - In the 8th week, new housing transaction volumes in 40 cities reached 2.0 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 20.8% and a year-on-year increase of 42.7% [12]. - The new housing transaction area was 213.8 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 21.3% and a year-on-year increase of 47.7% [21]. - Transaction growth rates for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities varied, with first-tier cities showing the highest growth [12][21]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 12.14 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 25.2% and a year-on-year increase of 322.0% [5][9]. - The total land transaction value reached 23 billion yuan, marking a month-on-month increase of 73.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2786.4% [5][9]. - The average floor price of land was 1895 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 38.5% and a year-on-year increase of 568.1% [5][9]. 3. Policy and Market Performance - The report notes that the issuance of local government bonds in Beijing and Guangdong is aimed at supporting urban renewal and land recovery projects, which are crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [5][9]. - The report suggests that the market is showing signs of recovery, with improved land auction premium rates and opening sales absorption rates, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate sector [5][9]. - The report advises focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and market presence in key cities, as well as those benefiting from policy support and market recovery [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the market index in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 3.45% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 8th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.25 percentage points [1][11]. - The tourism market remains robust, with expectations for steady growth in cultural tourism and consumer spending throughout the year, supported by favorable visa-free policies for inbound travel [1][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The social services sector's performance was highlighted by a 3.45% increase, ranking 8th among 31 industries, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.20% during the same period [11]. - Sub-sectors such as education (+7.22%) and professional services (+4.78%) showed significant gains, while tourism and scenic areas increased by 0.63% [14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a strong recovery in travel demand during the Spring Festival, with over 2.3 billion people traveling, a 6% increase from the previous year [24]. - The implementation of visa-free policies for ASEAN countries is expected to boost inbound tourism, particularly in regions like Xishuangbanna, which saw a 264.67% increase in foreign visitors in 2024 [1][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth prospects in the travel chain and related industries, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [4][38]. - It also highlights the potential of hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [4][38]. Company Announcements - Notable company announcements include the establishment of new business divisions by Lingnan Holdings to enhance market competitiveness and the investment by Miao Exhibition in a wholly-owned subsidiary to expand its professional exhibition business [30].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.00% this week, while the CSI 300 Index futures increased by 1.09%[2] - Thermal coal futures surged by 3.86%, and iron ore main contracts rose by 3.07% this week[2] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao decreased by 4 basis points to 1.25%[2] Asset Allocation Insights - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[3] - As of February 20, 2025, the price of London gold reached $2,939.0 per ounce, marking a 12.0% increase since the beginning of the year and a 60.7% increase compared to 2022[3] - The geopolitical threat index averaged 159.1 from February 1 to February 18, significantly higher than the level on January 1[3] Economic Indicators - The ten-year government bond yield rose by 7 basis points to 1.72% this week, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.53%[2] - Global gold reserves increased by 0.81% year-on-year as of February 2025, with 0.77 percentage points attributed to purchases by central banks[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a second rise in global inflation, a rapid decline in the US and European economies, and increasing complexity in international relations[3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Star Bulk achieved a net profit of $300 million in 2024, with total revenue of $1.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. The average TCE for the fleet reached $18,329 per day, up 16.2% year-on-year. HMM is planning to acquire SK Shipping for over $1.4 billion [2][14][15][16] - China Eastern Airlines reported a 19.71% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in January 2025, with a capacity increase of 11.89%. The new T5 terminal at Xi'an Airport officially opened on February 20, 2025 [2][18][19] - In 2024, China's express delivery volume reached 175.08 billion pieces, a year-on-year growth of 21.5%. The postal industry completed a total of 193.7 billion pieces, growing 19.2% year-on-year [2][23][24][25] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - Star Bulk's financial performance in 2024 includes a net profit of $300 million and a total revenue of $1.26 billion, with a significant acquisition plan by HMM for SK Shipping [14][15][16] - China Eastern Airlines saw a 19.71% increase in passenger turnover in January 2025, and the T5 terminal at Xi'an Airport commenced operations [18][19] - The express delivery sector in China achieved a volume of 175.08 billion pieces in 2024, marking a 21.5% increase [23][24] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo demand remains stable, with January 2025 showing an increase in domestic and international cargo flights [27][31] - Shipping rates have declined, with the SCFI index at 1595.08 points, down 9.31% week-on-week and 26.37% year-on-year [35][36] - The express delivery business saw a 22.30% increase in December 2024, with total revenue reaching 137.89 billion yuan [44][45] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the industrial goods export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy, and Huamao Logistics [4] - It highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy trends and the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending companies such as Bohai Ferry and Haixia Co [4] - The report also emphasizes opportunities in the e-commerce express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the rapid development of downstream industries, suggesting a focus on certain electronic materials and new energy materials companies [2][7] - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies for their reform and performance improvement [2][7] - The report identifies high-performing companies in the refrigerants and vitamins sectors, as well as undervalued industry leaders and light hydrocracking sector leaders due to overall macroeconomic improvement [2][7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance and Price Changes - Among 101 tracked chemical products, 31 saw price increases, 33 saw declines, and 37 remained stable during the week of February 17-23 [28] - The average price of TDI in China dropped to 13,162.5 CNY/ton, a decrease of 11.21% from the previous week [30] - The average price of titanium dioxide increased slightly to 14,546 CNY/ton, up 0.43% from the previous week [31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in rapidly developing downstream sectors, particularly in electronic materials and new energy materials [2][7] - It recommends investing in energy state-owned enterprises and oil service companies due to their ongoing reforms and performance improvements [2][7] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand supported by policy measures, particularly in the fluorochemical and vitamin sectors [2][7] Key Stocks to Watch - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several technology and chemical companies [2][7] - The report identifies "golden stocks" for February as China Petroleum and Anji Technology [4][8][14]