证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 12 月 15 日 策略周报 重回跨年配置行情主线 重要会议定调下，新兴消费与"AI+应用"作为跨年主线的线索明确。 ◼ 政策预期落地，短期预期兑现行情不改市场中枢上行趋势。本周备受关注 的政治局会议及中央经济工作会议召开，会议延续了 9 月政治局会议的 政策基调，对于 2025 年宏观政策的定调较为积极，基本处于此前市场预 期上沿。明年财政发力，政府端加杠杆有望带动信用周期的企稳修复，但 幅度尚有分歧。短期来看，货币宽松仍是市场最确定主线，信用回稳仍有 待传导，内需数据有效修复前，宏观流动性宽松、无风险利率低位的环境 或将延续。未来一周市场或面临预期兑现后的短期震荡，但市场下行风险 较低，整体大概率呈现箱体震荡，中枢上行趋势仍在。市场结构上仍将延 续小票占优、主题偏强的格局。 ◼ 政策预期助力下，消费结构迈向"全方位"。2024 年 12 月 9 日的政治局会 议及 2024 年 12 月 12 日 ...

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Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][20]. Core Viewpoints - The civil aviation fleet in China has grown from 204 aircraft in 1990 to 4,270 in 2023, achieving over 20 times growth in more than 30 years. However, the growth rate has slowed post-pandemic, with an average fleet growth rate of 3.72% expected over the next three years [2][3]. - In 2024, China's civil aviation passenger volume is expected to exceed 700 million, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, indicating a new cycle for air travel in the country [2][3]. - The demand for air travel is anticipated to steadily increase as the government implements policies to promote high-quality economic development [2][3]. Summary by Sections Fleet Growth and Supply Chain Impact - The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet has decreased post-pandemic, with an average growth rate of 2.84% from 2020 to 2023, compared to 10.44% from 2010 to 2019. The fleet size increased from 3,903 aircraft in 2020 to 4,270 in 2023 [3][5]. - Global supply chain disruptions have affected the delivery capabilities of major aircraft manufacturers, with Boeing and Airbus experiencing significant declines in annual aircraft deliveries post-pandemic [3][6][10]. Future Passenger Volume and Airline Recommendations - The projected passenger volume for 2024 is approximately 741 million, which would be the first time it exceeds the 660 million recorded in 2019 [3][14]. - Investment opportunities are recommended in the following airlines: Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines, as they are expected to benefit from the new cycle in aviation [2][3].

市场指数 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 上证综指 3432.49 0.29 深证成指 10848.42 0.33 沪深 300 3988.83 (0.17) 中小 100 6589.70 (0.09) 创业板指 2261.58 (0.11) 行业表现（申万一级） 指数名称 涨跌% 指数名称 涨跌% 商贸零售 3.29 银行 (1.20) 纺织服饰 2.68 非银金融 (0.62) 轻工制造 2.48 电力设备 (0.34) 房地产 2.28 计算机 (0.07) 综合 2.20 机械设备 0.21 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20241212 证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2024 年 12 月 12 日 ■重点关注 【基础化工】百龙创园*余嫄嫄。公司立足于功能糖赛道，客户结构优秀， 不断完善产品布局、优化产能。肠道健康与减糖需求共同促进行业持续扩容， 公司具备多品类规模化生产能力，在抗性糊精等产品方面具备领先优势。中 长期来看，公司持续研发拓展新品及海外产能布局有望打开成长空间。首次 覆盖，给予买入评级。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 (8621)2032 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a market price of RMB 16.64 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [1][2]. Core Insights - The company, Baolong Chuangyuan, is a leading enterprise in the functional sugar sector, focusing on health-oriented sugar products. It has a strong customer base and is continuously optimizing its product layout and capacity [2][4]. - The company has maintained high revenue growth over the past five years, with a CAGR of 19.83% in revenue and 23.49% in net profit from 2019 to 2023. In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue increased by 25.48% year-on-year [2][62]. - The dietary supplement market is expected to expand, benefiting from the increasing awareness of health among consumers. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth due to its diverse product offerings [2][4]. - The new sugar substitute, allulose, presents significant opportunities, with a projected CAGR of 14.60% from 2023 to 2032 in the global market. The company has a technological edge in producing allulose [2][4]. - The company is set to release new production capacity, with projects coming online in May 2024, which will enhance its growth trajectory [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Baolong Chuangyuan focuses on health-oriented sugar products, continuously expanding its product and customer matrix. It has developed a wide range of functional food ingredients, producing over 90 different specifications [51][62]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the actual controllers holding 49.76% of the shares, ensuring stable management [57][60]. 2. Market Potential - The dietary supplement market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increased consumer health awareness and dietary upgrades. The global and Chinese prebiotic markets are projected to reach RMB 18.548 billion and RMB 3.814 billion by 2026, respectively [2][4]. - The new sugar substitute, allulose, is gaining traction, with the global market expected to grow from USD 128 million in 2023 to USD 440 million by 2032 [2][4]. 3. Production Capacity and Growth - The company is set to launch new production projects in May 2024, including a 30,000-ton soluble dietary fiber project and a 15,000-ton crystalline sugar project, which will alleviate capacity constraints [2][4]. - The company is also expanding its international footprint with a production base in Thailand, which will help reduce costs and enhance its global market presence [2][4]. 4. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with revenues increasing from RMB 421 million in 2019 to RMB 868 million in 2023, and a projected net profit of RMB 250 million in 2024 [2][62]. - The gross margin improved to 32.73% in 2023, driven by product structure optimization and stable raw material prices [70][72].

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宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2024 年 12 月 10 日 11 月通胀点评 消费好转是通胀企稳回升的重要条件 11 月 CPI 同比增速低于万得一致预期；CPI 同比增速较 10 月走低，主要是 受食品价格拖累，此外服务业价格的季节性回落也有一定影响；2025 年低基 数对 CPI 的影响比较大，预计 CPI 同比增速有望平缓上行；11 月 PPI 同比 增速超出万得一致预期，主要是受政策发力带动；但是春节前到一季度是投 资和生产的淡季，关注工业品价格向好能否持续。 ◼ 11 月 CPI 环比增速-0.6%，同比增长 0.2%，核心 CPI 同比增长 0.3%，服 务价格同比增长 0.4%，消费品价格同比持平。 ◼ 从环比看，11 月食品价格下降 2.7%，降幅超近十年同期平均水平 2.5 个 百分点，较 10 月增速下行 1.5 个百分点，非食品价格由上月持平转为下 降 0.1%；从同比看，食品价格上涨 1.0%，涨幅比上月回落 1.9 个百分点， 非食品价格由上月下降 0.3%转为持平。 ◼ 食品继续拖累 11 月 CPI 增速表现。11 月 CPI 同比增速较 10 月下降 0.1 个 ...