| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|----------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n | | 2024 年 11 月 20 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 | | 股票代码 600383.SH | | 股票名称 金地集团 | | -20241120 | | | | 极兔速递 | | | | 1519.HK | | | -W | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 688019.S ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 11 月 19 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 10 月 M1 同比降幅有所收窄 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 ◼ 经济数据：国家统计局公布数据显示，10 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值 同比增长 5.3%，社会消费品零售总额增长 4.8%，全国服务业生产指数增 长 6.3%。1-10 月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长 3.4%，其中房地产开发 投资下降 10.3%。10 月份，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.0%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。（万得） ◼ 要闻：财政部等三部门发布多项楼市税收优惠新政。其中提出，购买家庭 唯一及第二套住房，140 平方米及以下按 1%税率征收契税，并明确北京、 上海、广州、深圳可以与其他地区统一适用二套房契税优惠。在城市取消 普通住宅标准后，对个人销售已购买 2 年及以上住房一律免征增值税。土 地增值税预征率下限统一降低 0.5 个百分点。（万得） 资产表现回顾 ◼ A 股指数表现弱势。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 3.29%，沪深 300 股指期货下 跌 2.94%；焦煤期货本周下跌 5.26%，铁矿石主 ...

| --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

| --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company is capitalizing on the trend of small parcel delivery, implementing cost reduction strategies to maintain profitability. The company's express delivery volume growth outpaces the industry average, and it is effectively lowering costs while enhancing profit margins [2][3]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.257 billion RMB, an increase of 8.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 367 million RMB, up 24.25% year-on-year. The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 35.509 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.408 billion RMB, a 20.93% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total express delivery volume of 16.943 billion pieces in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, surpassing the industry growth rate by 5.7 percentage points. In Q3 2024 alone, the volume was 6.019 billion pieces, up 23.72% year-on-year [2][3]. - The average revenue per piece for Q1-Q3 2024 was 2.10 RMB, down 15.32% year-on-year, indicating a successful strategy of price reduction to increase volume. The average cost per piece was 1.89 RMB, down 15.06% year-on-year, showcasing effective cost management [2][3]. Digitalization and Innovation - The company is enhancing its digital capabilities and actively exploring the low-altitude economy. It has implemented a comprehensive digital strategy to improve operational efficiency and service quality, including the introduction of new intelligent sorting equipment [2][3]. - The company is conducting pilot projects for drone deliveries in certain regions, aiming to shorten delivery times and improve service efficiency [2][3]. Valuation Adjustments - Due to a significant reduction in average revenue per piece, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.075 billion RMB, 2.405 billion RMB, and 2.857 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.7%, 15.9%, and 18.8% respectively. The corresponding EPS is expected to be 0.72 RMB, 0.83 RMB, and 0.99 RMB per share, with PE ratios of 11.3, 9.8, and 8.2 times [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's credit impairment has negatively impacted profitability, but there is an expectation for recovery as the commodity market stabilizes [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 94.218 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.11 billion, down 61.80% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 297.699 billion, a decline of 19.24%, and a net profit of RMB 8.90 billion, down 24.67% year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes that weak procurement demand from downstream manufacturing clients and pressure on commodity prices have led to a decrease in the company's operating scale [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the expectation that the company's performance will improve as the commodity market stabilizes and impairment risks are cleared [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 94.218 billion, a decrease of 30.25% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.11 billion, down 61.80% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was RMB 297.699 billion, a decline of 19.24%, with a net profit of RMB 8.90 billion, down 24.67% year-on-year [2] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be RMB 1.218 billion, RMB 2.219 billion, and RMB 2.448 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -22.6%, +82.1%, and +10.3% respectively [2][3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the company will continue to expand its advantages and optimize its business model, actively increasing its customer base [2] - It is anticipated that the overall economic fundamentals in China remain stable, and the commodity market is expected to gradually stabilize and recover [2] Valuation - The report adjusts the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 to RMB 0.54, RMB 0.98, and RMB 1.08, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.5, 6.3, and 5.7 [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its semiconductor business advantages and new product development progress [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid growth in performance, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit driven by its semiconductor business, which has become a key revenue and profit growth driver [1][2]. - The semiconductor segment's revenue reached 1.086 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a 93% year-on-year increase, and its contribution to total revenue rose from 32% in 2023 to 45% in 2024 [1][6]. - The company achieved a record high monthly sales of over 30,000 polishing pads in September 2024, reflecting strong market penetration and product stability [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.426 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 29.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million RMB, up 113.51% [1][6]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 46.51%, an increase of 10.68 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.46%, up 7.76 percentage points [1][6]. Semiconductor Business - The semiconductor business, including materials and integrated circuit design, generated 1.086 billion RMB in revenue in the first three quarters, with a 93% year-on-year growth [1][6]. - The company has made significant advancements in its polishing pad products, achieving a sales revenue of 523 million RMB in the first three quarters, a 95% increase year-on-year [1][6]. Product Development - The company is actively expanding its product lines, including CMP polishing liquids and advanced packaging materials, with sales of CMP polishing liquids reaching 140 million RMB in the first three quarters, a 190% increase year-on-year [1][6]. - The company is also progressing in the development of semiconductor display materials, with sales of 282 million RMB in the first three quarters, reflecting a 168% year-on-year increase [1][6]. Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 491 million RMB, 675 million RMB, and 877 million RMB respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.52 RMB, 0.72 RMB, and 0.93 RMB [1][6].

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 11 月 18 日 美国大选落地短期或刺激集运出货，双十一快 递业务量创历史新高 航运方面，美国大选落地短期或刺激集运出货，进入 12 月传统淡季航运市 场维持增长态势。航空方面，多家中外航司调整对华航线航班，低成本航空 再次挑战长航线。快递物流方面，双十一快递业务量创历史新高，跨境电商 让"双 11"好物走向世界。 ◼ 核心观点： ①美国大选落地短期或刺激集运出货，进入 12 月传统淡季航运市场维 持增长态势。美国大选短期刺激出货，长期航运市场将迎来改变。中远 海控副总经理于涛表示，美国大选结果的出炉将带来航运市场短期波动 和中长期的结构性变化。短期来看，航运市场会出现一波行情，基于未 来的加税预期，今年年底至明年年初可能会有强烈出货需求。从中长期 来看，航运市场会迎来一些结构性的变化。在整体贸易需求没有太大变 化的前提下，一系列贸易保护措施的出台将导致货物供给地可能发生调 整，一些货物会加快向东南亚、墨西哥等市场转移，但中欧、中日、中 韩之间的贸易可能会迎来新的机遇。尽管进入 12 月份的传统淡季，航 运市场的运费依旧维持增长态势。中远海控副总经理于 ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 11 月 18 日 强于大市 食品饮料行业周报 10 月餐饮类零售额表现平淡，提振内需背景下优先 关注大众消费 上周食品饮料板块涨跌幅-3.6%，在申万一级行业中排名第 15。10 月限额以 上餐饮数据增速低于整体餐饮类收入，烟酒、饮料类社零数据受淡季影响， 表现平淡。行业步入业绩真空期，在提振内需背景下优先关注具有口红效应 的大众消费。白酒基本面仍处于底部调整阶段，但龙头分红意愿提升，重视 股东回报。 市场回顾 上周食品饮料板块涨跌幅为-3.6%，在申万一级行业中排名第 15。子板块中，啤 酒、软饮料涨跌幅排名靠前，分别为-1.7%、-2.2%，保健品、零食涨跌幅排名靠 后，涨跌幅分别为-6.8%、-6.9%。截至 11 月 15 日，白酒板块估值（PE-TTM）为 21.0X，食品饮料板块估值（PE-TTM）为 21.9X。 行业数据 根据今日酒价、百荣酒价及同花顺数据，11.9-11.15 整箱飞天批价 2307-2390 元， 散瓶飞天批价 2207-2270 元。普五批价 930 元，国窖 1573 批价为 860 元。 截至 11 月 15 ...