Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Zhongtian Technology (600522 SH) with a "Buy" rating [2][5] Core Views - The company is a leader in the submarine cable and optical communication sectors, with strong growth potential driven by accelerating offshore wind construction and the development of the optical communication industry [4][5] - Offshore wind power construction is accelerating both domestically and internationally, with China's offshore wind turbine bidding volume reaching 7 6 million kW in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24 59% [4] - The company's submarine cable business is expected to benefit from the trend of higher voltage levels and longer distances, with the mainstream voltage levels for array cables and export cables increasing to 66kV and 330kV/500kV respectively [4] - The optical communication sector remains robust, with the company leading in market share and securing significant orders in centralized procurement bids [20][27] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 50 11 billion yuan in 2024 to 62 4 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing from 3 34 billion yuan to 4 79 billion yuan over the same period [5] - The company's PE ratio is lower than the industry average, with a 2024 PE of 15 4x compared to the industry average of 24 1x [5] - Historical financial performance shows steady growth, with revenue increasing from 38 7 billion yuan in 2019 to 45 1 billion yuan in 2023, and net profit attributable to shareholders growing from 1 97 billion yuan to 3 12 billion yuan over the same period [59] Industry Trends - Offshore wind power is entering a high-growth phase, with Europe aiming for at least 60GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, and China's offshore wind market also showing strong growth potential [67][92] - The submarine cable market is characterized by high barriers to entry, including technical, certification, and capital requirements, leading to a concentrated competitive landscape dominated by a few key players [117] - The optical communication industry is benefiting from the acceleration of 5G and gigabit optical network construction, with China's 5G base stations reaching 3 377 million by the end of 2023 [135][137] Company Strengths - Zhongtian Technology has a leading position in the submarine cable market, with advanced technology and a strong track record of securing major projects both domestically and internationally [4][114] - The company has a diversified product portfolio in the optical communication sector, with a strong presence in fiber optic cables, ODN, and other related products [146] - The company has a global presence, with overseas factories in India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and Morocco, and products exported to over 160 countries and regions [172] Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to fluctuations in raw material prices and potential challenges in overseas expansion due to geopolitical factors [155]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shengquan Group (605589 SH) [2] Core Views - High value added projects are progressing steadily highlighting high growth potential [4] - Special electronic resin business is performing well with 300 tons PPO production line at full capacity and new 1000 tons PPO project operational since June 2024 [4] - Silicon carbon anode porous carbon material developed by the company has gained recognition from top battery manufacturers with 300 tons capacity already built and 1000 tons project expected to reach full production by end of 2024 [4] - Biomass refining integration project in Daqing has achieved over 70% capacity utilization by Q3 2024 and is expected to reach full production in Q4 2024 aiming for monthly breakeven by Q1 2025 [4] - The company conducted two share repurchases in 2024 demonstrating confidence in long term development [7] - First repurchase completed on November 27 2024 with 2 5 billion yuan repurchasing 12 84 million shares (1 52% of total shares) [7] - Second repurchase announced on December 2 2024 with planned amount between 2 5 billion yuan and 5 0 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance - Revenue and profit growth expected from 2024 to 2026 [19] - Forecasted net profit attributable to parent company: 9 12 billion yuan in 2024 (+15 6% YoY) 12 25 billion yuan in 2025 (+34 3% YoY) and 14 71 billion yuan in 2026 (+20 1% YoY) [19] - EPS forecast: 1 08 yuan in 2024 1 45 yuan in 2025 and 1 74 yuan in 2026 [19] - Main business operations remain stable with effective cost control [27] - Phenolic resin casting resin and electronic chemicals sales volumes in 2024Q1 Q3: 377 700 tons (+3 6% YoY) 130 900 tons (+13 1% YoY) and 49 600 tons (-2 0% YoY) respectively [27] - Revenue from these products: 2 742 billion yuan (+7 6% YoY) 1 131 billion yuan (-3 1% YoY) and 881 million yuan (+1 8% YoY) respectively [27] - Q3 2024 gross margin: 23 1% (+0 5pct YoY) net margin: 10 1% (+2 8pct YoY) [27] Industry and Market - The company operates in the basic chemicals plastics industry [2] - AI and optical module market boom is expected to drive demand for PCB and CCL related industries potentially increasing company profits [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10][15] Core Views - The company has achieved record production and sales in the first three quarters, with total production and sales of tires increasing by over 30% year-on-year, leading to significant revenue and profit growth [3][15] - The company is actively expanding its global footprint, with tire production bases established in Vietnam and Cambodia, and plans for projects in Mexico and Indonesia [4][15] - The company has launched a price increase for certain products to offset rising costs, which is expected to improve profit margins in the fourth quarter [3][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company reported tire product revenue of 8.173 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.99%, with production and sales volumes of 19.2163 million and 19.3339 million tires, respectively, reflecting increases of 17.61% and 22.81% year-on-year [3][15] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 28.38%, up 2.92 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.73%, up 3.08 percentage points year-on-year [3][15] - The company forecasts net profits of 4.278 billion, 5.171 billion, and 5.797 billion yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 38.4%, 20.9%, and 12.1%, respectively [15] Global Expansion - The company has established tire production bases in Vietnam and Cambodia, with plans for additional projects in Mexico and Indonesia, enhancing its global supply chain [4][15] - The company is increasing its investment in the Mexico project, raising the registered capital from 120 million to 240 million USD and increasing its ownership stake from 51% to 75% [4][15] Product Development and Market Position - The company is focusing on technological innovation and brand building, with R&D expenses increasing by 19.43% year-on-year [14][15] - The launch of the "Liquid Gold" product line has expanded into the engineering tire sector, showcasing the company's R&D capabilities and enhancing its market presence [14][15]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 电气设备 2024 年 12 月 22 日 彭广春 资格编号：S0120522070001 邮箱：penggc＠tebon.com.cn 新能源发电投资建议：建议关注几条主线：1）新电池片技术叠加优势的一体化组 件企业：晶科能源、隆基绿能、晶澳科技、天合光能；2）新型技术涌现的电池片 环节：通威股份、爱旭股份、钧达股份等；3）自身效率或具有量增逻辑的硅片企 业：TCL 中环、双良节能；4）受益于总量提升的逆变器龙头企业：锦浪科技、阳 光电源、德业股份；5）储能电池及供应商：宁德时代、亿纬锂能、派能科技等。 风电板块建议关注：1）海风相关标的建议关注：起帆电缆、海力风电、振江股份； 2）风电上游零部件商建议关注：广大特材、力星股份等；3）整机商建议关注：三 一重能，明阳智能等。 风险提示：原材料价格波动风险、产业链价格波动风险、行业竞争加剧风险。 市场表现 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观周报 [Table_Main] 2024 年 12 月 22 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|--------------------------------|-------| | 宏观周报 | 本周看什么？市值考核、鹰派降息 | | | | -- 宏观周报（ | | | 证券分析师 | | | 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy@tebon.com.cn 连桐衫 邮箱：liants＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Summary] 摘要： 核心观点：本周聚焦两个方向，其一，美联储"鹰派降息"。其二，韩国国会通过 总统弹劾案。 高频宏观数据：高频数据继续支撑交通运输、煤炭钢铁维持较高景气度，地产、文 旅消费、建筑建材景气度待修复。 短期投资建议：债市关注增量宽货币可能的落地时点；股市关注进一步的流动性宽 松配合其他政策共同发力。 热点观察 1：美联储"鹰派降息"。北京时间周四(12 月 19 ...

行情回顾：本周 A 股汽车板块跑输大盘。（1）本周沪深 300 指数跌幅 0.14%，其 中汽车板块跌幅 0.94%，涨跌幅位居 A 股中信一级行业第 7 位。（2）本周 SW 乘 用车跌幅 0.20%，理想汽车-W、零跑汽车领涨。（3）本周 SW 商用车跌幅 1.77%， 宇通客车、安凯客车领涨。（4）本周 SW 汽车零部件跌幅 1.19%，科博达、华懋科 技领涨。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 理想汽车申请"L4"商标。12 月 19 日，理想汽车关联公司北京车和家信息技 术有限公司申请注册"L4"商标，国际分类为运输工具，目前商标状态为等待实质审 查。这一动作引发了外界对理想汽车未来产品线的猜测。理想汽车 L 系列已推出 L9、L8、L7、L6 四款 SUV 车型，CEO 李想曾表示将推出非 SUV 形态的 L5 车 型，但未提及 L4。此次注册"L4"商标，可能是为未来产品规划做准备，也可能是 出于商标保护的考虑。目前，关于"L4"商标的具体用途尚不明确。（第一电动网） [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 汽车 | --- | --- | |---------------- ...

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform the Market (Maintain)" [9] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that policy support is increasing, and the value of dividend assets is continuously emerging. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has issued guidelines to enhance market value management for state-owned enterprises, which includes increasing cash dividends and establishing regular stock repurchase mechanisms [9][33] - The report predicts that coal prices are expected to rebound in the short term due to increased winter storage demand driven by cold weather and resilient non-electric demand [6][31] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Overview**: The price of thermal coal and coking coal has decreased. As of December 20, 2024, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 767 CNY/ton, down 23 CNY/ton (-2.91%) from the previous week [54][76] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The railway input volume has decreased, and domestic and international freight rates are diverging. The total inventory at major ports has decreased by 104.9 million tons (-1.40%) [94][110] - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao has decreased by 11 million tons (-1.60%), while key power plants' inventory has increased by 246 million tons (+1.88%) [113][95] - **International Coal Market**: International coal prices have declined, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal price at 83.5 USD/ton, down 3.5 USD/ton (-4.02%) [121] 2. Market Review - The coal sector has underperformed the broader market, with significant price declines observed across various coal products [38][121] 3. Recent Events - The report highlights recent policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing investment growth, which are expected to support coal prices in the medium to long term [31][33]

王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 内需与出口共振，需求端有望稳健向好。长丝下游主要集中在纺服领域，年初以来 在我国居民收入及消费信心趋稳、国家促消费政策逐步显效等因素支撑下，国内纺 服链稳步复苏，根据 Wind，1-10 月国内纺织业、服装业规模以上工业增加值同比 分别+5.1%、+0.5%。直播带货、即时零售等电商新模式持续激发市场消费潜力， 1-10 月服装鞋帽针织品类、服装类企业零售额同比分别+1.1%、+0.6%。此外，原 料端，长丝出口延续近六年来的高位水平，根据钢联，1-10 月累计出口 317 万吨， 同比-6.1%；应用端，我国纺织产业链竞争力持续释放，前三季度对美国、欧盟、 东盟、加拿大、乌克兰等贸易伙伴纺织品服装出口额均实现正增长。根据百川盈孚， 2024 年 1-11 月我国涤纶长丝表观消费量合计 3099 万吨，同比+19.1%，增速表现 亮眼。向后展望，在 2025 年国家层面大力提振消费的预期下，长丝内需有望加速 回暖，同时海外补库周期渐进，长丝出口有望迎来量增。 行业点评 基础化工 资料来源：Wind、绸都网、钢联、德 ...

2 / 3 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 行业点评 基础化工 信息披露 分析师声明 本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告所采用的数据和信 息均来自市场公开信息，本人不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观 点，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，特此声明。 投资评级说明 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 | --- | --- | |------------------|-------------------------------| | | 2024 年 12 月 22 日 | | 2025 基础化工 | 年制冷剂配额公示，看好 | | 优于大市（维持） | 行业景气延续 | 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《关注制冷剂、维生素等涨价品 种》，2024.10.19 2.《供需侧双重利好，制冷剂景气有 望超预期》，2024.12.20 事件：12 ...

表 1：基本金属价格及变动概览 资料来源：Wind，COMEX，德邦研究所 资料来源：Wind，COMEX，IPE，德邦研究所 行业周报 有色金属 图 9：2024 年 11 月，美国:失业率:季调 4.20%...............................................................8 图 10： 2024 年 12 月 17 日，COMEX:黄金:非商业净持仓 262041 张 ..........................8 图 11：本周 SHFE 铜价下跌 1.3%,LME 铜价下跌 2.2%..................................................9 厂精炼费 RC0.83 美分/磅...............................................................................................10 图 18：本周 SHFE 铝库存减少 4.3%,LME 铝库存减少 1.9% ......................... ...