[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 通信 2024 年 12 月 21 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 49% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 通信 沪深300 1.《垣信和星网接力，互联网全面加 速》，2024.12.17 2.《政治局会议解读，科技引领，提 升产业链韧性和安全》，2024.12.14 3.《垣信密集发射 54 颗卫星，规模 化发射带来弹性》，2024.12.7 4.《商业航天发射场投入使用，规模 化发射开启》，2024.12.3 5.《通宇通讯(002792.SZ)：5G-A 带 来传统业务新场景，卫星铸就第二增 长曲线》，2024.12.3 2.1 中国版星链正式升空，首批发射 1.3 万颗卫星。据快科技、C114 通信网，12 月 16 日，我国在海南文昌卫星发射中心使用长征五号乙运载火箭，以一箭 10 星 方式成功将卫星互联网低轨 01 组卫星发射升空，卫星顺利进入预定 ...

餐饮供应链：促消费政策落地，资金面及政策面显著改善。2023H2 开始餐饮 供应链标的开始逐步承压，主要系"性价比"消费趋势下终端门店需求相对疲软。 从三季报来看，板块整体业绩承压。从估值角度来看，大部分公司估值水平已经 休闲食品：微信灰度测试"送礼物"功能，关注 Q4 备货和高势能标的。回 顾 24Q3，休食板块在经历 Q1 高景气度、Q2 传统销售淡季影响后景气度环比有 所恢复。但由于板块渠道的变迁，板块内各标的业绩出现进一步分化趋势，高势 能头部企业积极顺应渠道变化，围绕"质价比"打造大单品，不断通过完善产品 和渠道力持续提高市占率，布局上下游降本增效保证合理利润率水平；业绩表现 不佳标的也积极寻求变革，寻求实现困境反转。微信近日宣布正式开启"送礼物" 功能灰度测试，目前除珠宝、教育培训两大类目外，其他类目下原价小于 1 万元 的商品，都将默认支持"送礼物"功能。由于微信生态拥有广泛的用户场景和流 量渠道优势，因此我们看好微信小店"送礼物"功能加快商家入驻以及作为新兴 线上销售渠道。12 月下旬后重点节假日密集，"送礼物"功能有望加速上游休食 企业动销速度。因此建议关注：1）红利延续标的如盐津铺子、甘源 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from rising aluminum product prices, with a projected net profit growth of 95% for the fiscal year 2024 compared to the previous year [6] - The increase in alumina prices and stable electrolytic aluminum prices are the main drivers for the significant improvement in the company's performance [6] - The company has a large-scale alumina production capacity, which supports its ongoing performance growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - The average price of alumina in Shandong reached 5,720.00 CNY/ton as of December 17, 2024, with an annual average of 3,963.50 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.5% [6] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 19,750.00 CNY/ton as of December 18, 2024, with an annual average of 19,927.25 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.6% [6] - The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 229 billion CNY, 256 billion CNY, and 286 billion CNY respectively [7] Market and Operational Insights - The alumina price is expected to remain strong, potentially driving industry capacity to continue being released in 2025 [7] - The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan has remained high, with a capacity utilization rate of 99.32% in June 2024 [7] - The company is actively expanding its green aluminum production, which is anticipated to provide a competitive advantage due to lower carbon emissions compared to traditional methods [7]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 煤炭开采 2024 年 12 月 19 日 | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------------| | | | | | | | 煤炭开采 | 煤炭行业点评：政策支持力度提 | | | | | 优于大市（维持） | 升，红利价值持续显现 | 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 31% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 煤炭开采 沪深300 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：上调回 购 价 格 上 限 ， 投 资 价 值 凸 显 》， 2024.12.18 2.《淮北矿业(600985.SH)：股东增持 彰显信心，未来成长空间广阔》， 2024.12.17 3.《煤炭月报：供给延续回升，非电 需求边际改善》，2024.12.17 4.《煤炭周报：政策托底内需，坚定 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 永泰能源(600157.SH) 2024 年 12 月 18 日 相关研究 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|----------------------------| | 买入（维持） 永泰能源（ | 600157.SH ）：上调 | | 所属行业：煤炭 / 煤炭开采 当前价格 ( 元 ) ： 1.81 | 回购价格上限，投资价值凸显 | | 证券分析师 | | | 翟堃 | | | | | 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 57% 永泰能源 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------------|--------------|-------| | 2023-12 \n沪深 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Outperform (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The communication industry is experiencing comprehensive acceleration with the relay of Yuanxin and Starnet, leading to a significant boost in internet development [2] - China's large constellation systems are progressing rapidly, with both low-orbit and high-orbit satellite internet constellations entering the deployment phase [4] - Commercial aerospace infrastructure and rocket capabilities are improving, with low-cost launch era approaching [4] - Mobile phone direct-to-satellite services are advancing, with China's low-orbit satellite direct connection expected soon [4][6] Market Performance - Communication industry performance shows a significant upward trend, with a notable increase from -29% to 39% between December 2023 and August 2024 [3] Satellite Internet Development - China's satellite internet is entering a large-scale construction phase, with Yuanxin's "Qianfan Constellation" and Starnet's low-orbit satellites being deployed [4] - As of November 2024, SpaceX has launched 7324 satellites, while China has over 900 satellites in orbit [4] - Yuanxin Satellite Technology has signed a memorandum with Brazil's TELEBRAS to provide satellite communication services, aiming for commercial use by 2026 [4] Commercial Aerospace Infrastructure - China's commercial launch sites are becoming more sophisticated, with Wenchang Commercial Launch Site enabling rapid satellite production and launch [4] - Multiple rocket products are available to meet different satellite launch needs, with Long March 5 having a payload capacity comparable to Falcon 9 [4] - Domestic commercial aerospace companies are expected to launch reusable rockets by 2025, with costs potentially dropping to 10,000 RMB/kg [4] Mobile Phone Direct-to-Satellite Services - SpaceX has partnered with T-Mobile and other international carriers to provide direct-to-satellite services [6] - China Telecom and China Mobile are also advancing in this area, with Huawei expected to launch low-orbit satellite direct connection services by the second half of 2025 [6] Key Companies to Watch - Antennas and chip components: Aerospace Huanyu, Chengchang Technology, Leidian Weili, etc [7] - Communication payloads: Chuangyi Information, Shanghai Hanxun, Xinke Mobile, etc [7] - Satellite manufacturing and key components: Haige Communications, Tianyin Electromechanical, Shaanxi Huada, etc [7] - Ground and user equipment: Aerospace Huanyu, Mengsheng Electronics, Haige Communications, etc [7] - Satellite operations: China Satcom, China Telecom, China Mobile, etc [7]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's controlling shareholder, Huaibei Mining Group, plans to increase its shareholding by RMB 300-500 million within 6 months, demonstrating confidence in the company's future development [5][6] - The company is a leading coking coal producer in East China, with over 70% of its reserves being high-quality coking coal and fat coal [7] - The Taohutu coal mine, currently under construction, is expected to contribute significant profits upon completion, with an estimated annual profit of RMB 1.671 billion [7] - The ethanol project has entered the harvest period, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons/year, making it the largest single-series production facility globally [8] - The company's revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of RMB 74.8 billion, RMB 79.8 billion, and RMB 85.3 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [8] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's net profit is expected to be RMB 5.006 billion, RMB 5.250 billion, and RMB 5.756 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 7.73x, 7.37x, and 6.72x, respectively [8] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 16.9%, 17.0%, and 17.3% for 2024-2026, respectively [10] - The company's ROE is expected to be 12.4%, 11.9%, and 12.0% for 2024-2026, respectively [10] Industry and Market Position - The company is a major coal producer in East China, with 17 coal production mines and a total approved production capacity of 35.85 million tons [7] - The company's coal reserves are characterized by low sulfur, very low phosphorus, medium volatility, strong cohesiveness, and good coking properties [7] - The company's ethanol project is the largest single-series production facility globally, with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year [8] Growth Drivers - The Taohutu coal mine, expected to be completed by the end of 2025, will add an annual production capacity of 8 million tons of high-calorific value thermal coal [7] - The company is accelerating the construction of 5 non-coal mines, which are expected to be completed by the end of 2024 [8] - The company is also expanding its chemical business, with projects including 100,000 tons of dimethyl carbonate, 30,000 tons of carbonate esters, and 30,000 tons of ethylamine under construction [8]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 煤炭开采 2024 年 12 月 17 日 证券分析师 | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤炭 | 煤炭月报：供给延续回升，非电 | | 优于大市（维持） | 需求边际改善 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 31% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 煤炭开采 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：政策托底内需，坚定 红利投资价值》，2024.12.14 2.《煤炭行业 2025 年度策略：行业 底 部 显 现 ， 先 价 值 后 弹 性 》 ， 2024.12.11 3.《陕西煤业（601225.SH）：收购 陕煤电力，煤电一体协同发 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 消费电子 2024 年 12 月 17 日 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|----------------------------------| | 消费电子 | 消费电子：更多补贴政策或将出台， | | 优于大市（维持） | | | | | | 证券分析师 [Table_Summary] | | 陈蓉芳 资格编号：S0120522060001 邮箱：chenrf＠tebon.com.cn 张威震 资格编号：S0120524110001 邮箱：zhangwz5＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 消费电子 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《安卓链：10 月旗舰新机密集发布， SoC 和 AI OS 加速迭代 》， 2024.10.14 2《. iPhone16 首发钢壳电池创新，终 端 AI 应用驱动电池持续升级》， 2024.09.24 3.《华为 ...