证券分析师 姓名：陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 证券分析师 姓名：李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 0 证券研究报告 | 行业年度策略 计算机 行业投资评级 | 优于大市（维持） 2024年11月19日 围绕自主可控的新质生产力再创新 ——计算机行业2025年年度策略 研究助理 姓名：王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 核心逻辑 新一轮创新周期正在蓄能，重拾信心研发投入有望回暖加速产品迭代。 复盘移动互联网和云计算两大创新周期，都表现出流动性宽松&技术爆发下研发投入增加、新品供给活跃度提升的特征，最终形成科技牛市行情。12-15年（移动互联网）：创业板指和计算机（申万）指数最高点，分别为 3982.25、10340.48，相较12年初，最高累计涨幅达到463.18%、607.75%；19-21年（云计算）：创业板指和计算机（申万）指数最高点，分别为3563.13、6724.39，相较12年初，累计涨幅分别为403.90%、360.25%。 新一轮创新大周期的条件正在完善：一 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) [1] Core Views - Baofeng Energy is a leading domestic coal-to-olefins enterprise with a comprehensive "coal-coke-olefins" integrated industrial chain, currently holding coal mining rights capacity of 11.02 million tons/year, coke capacity of 7 million tons/year, and olefins capacity of 2.2 million tons/year [4][25] - The company has shown strong growth potential with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% in revenue and 23.9% in net profit from 2013 to 2023, with a gross margin of 37% and a net margin of 22% [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Baofeng Energy: Domestic Coal-to-Olefins Leader - The company has expanded its scale through acquisitions and project developments, establishing three main business segments: olefins, coking, and fine chemicals [25][29] 2. A Reliable Chemical Growth Leader: Steady Capacity Release and Cost Advantages 2.1. Strong Growth Momentum: Capacity Enters High-Speed Release Period - The company is entering a significant production phase in 2024, with the Inner Mongolia Phase I 3 million tons olefins project expected to start production in November 2023, increasing total olefins capacity to 5.2 million tons/year, approximately 2.4 times the current capacity [5][53] - Future plans include a 500,000 tons/year olefins capacity in Ningdong Phase IV and a 4 million tons/year capacity in Xinjiang, potentially increasing total olefins capacity to 9.7 million tons/year, 4.4 times the current capacity [5][53] 2.2. Significant Cost Advantages: Olefins Cost Curve on the Left Side - The company benefits from a cost advantage in coal-to-olefins production, with a cost saving of 1,490 RMB/ton compared to China Shenhua in 2023 [6][56] - The Inner Mongolia project is expected to further reduce costs by approximately 873 RMB/ton due to advanced technology and shorter transportation distances [6][56] 3. Price Judgments on Olefins: Weakening Correlation with Oil Prices - The correlation between olefins prices and oil prices has weakened, with the sensitivity of olefins prices to oil prices decreasing as production capacity expands [7][9] - The global olefins production capacity growth is expected to slow down, with a projected CAGR of 3.5% for polyethylene and 3.7% for polypropylene from 2024 to 2026 [9][9] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 65.58 billion RMB, 141.35 billion RMB, and 169.90 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.89 RMB, 1.93 RMB, and 2.32 RMB [9][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the beauty and personal care industry [2]. Core Insights - Traditional agency operators like Liren Lizhuang and Yiwang Yichuang are experiencing significant declines, with Liren Lizhuang's revenue in 2023 being only 60% of its peak in 2020, and Yiwang Yichuang showing stagnation from 2020 to 2023 [8][19]. - The report identifies several factors contributing to the decline of traditional operators, including reliance on a single market segment, failure to adapt to new sales channels like Douyin, and the shift of brands from agency partnerships to in-house teams [8][19]. - Companies like Qingmu Technology and Ruoyuchen are showing high growth by adapting their business models and expanding into new markets [19][20]. Summary by Sections Traditional Agency Operators - Liren Lizhuang's revenue in 2023 was only 60% of its 2020 peak, with a continued decline in net profit growth in Q1-Q3 of 2024 compared to 2023 [8]. - Yiwang Yichuang's performance has been stagnant from 2020 to 2023, with a noticeable drop in profits [8]. - Key reasons for the decline include a narrow focus on specific product categories, rapid changes in sales channels, and the inability to maintain brand partnerships as brands shift to self-managed teams [8][19]. New Business Models - Water Sheep Co. has transitioned from a traditional TP model to a CP model, focusing on sustainable partnerships with brands and offering comprehensive operational services [11]. - Qingmu Technology has embraced high-growth sectors, maintaining a stable revenue share from agency operations while expanding into new categories and leveraging technology for growth [16][19]. - Both companies are actively acquiring or incubating their own brands, with Water Sheep's acquisition of the luxury brand Ifidan showing promising results [20][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that traditional agency operators should seek transformation by diversifying product categories, exploring new sales channels, and collaborating with new brands to sustain growth [27]. - The shift from agency to brand ownership is highlighted as a strategic move for companies like Ruoyuchen and Qingmu Technology, which have the operational resources and e-commerce expertise to support this transition [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2]. Core Insights - North American AI application companies have exceeded performance expectations, and the future demand for infrastructure is becoming clearer [4]. - The acceleration of AI applications by major internet companies is expected to lead to bulk orders for domestic training cards to meet high-speed inference needs [6]. - The development of AI terminals is promising, with advancements in AI glasses and smart driving technologies anticipated [7]. Summary by Sections Application Developments - Companies like AppLovin, Palantir, and Salesforce have shown significant progress in their respective fields, driving stock performance. AppLovin's stock rose by 630.46% from the beginning of 2024 to November 15, 2024, while Palantir's revenue reached $726 million, a 30% year-on-year increase, with a stock rise of 283.05% in the same period. Salesforce's new Agentforce platform has also contributed to a 24.16% stock increase [5]. Cloud Computing and AI Infrastructure - The report highlights three catalysts for domestic computing power: 1. Overseas policies restricting advanced chip supplies to mainland China, increasing the urgency for domestic production. 2. Domestic policies supporting AI computing power, particularly in the context of self-controlled innovation. 3. The expected increase in domestic AI chip production as a response to these policies [5]. AI Terminal Innovations - The report notes advancements in AI glasses, with companies like Meta and Apple making significant moves in this space. Additionally, Tesla's upcoming FSD V13 is expected to enhance autonomous driving capabilities significantly [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in domestic computing power, AI glasses, smart driving, and AI smartphones, including HaiGuang Information, Huafeng Technology, and others [7].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 有色金属 2024 年 11 月 18 日 | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | 有色金属 | 铝：退税政策变动，内外价差要 | | 优于大市（维持） | 缩到多少？ | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《有色金属周报：化债政策落地， 氧化铝价格维持强势》，2024.11.10 2.《氧化铝深度：供给扰动短期难解， 价格高位有望延续》，2024.11.7 3.《有色金属周报：PMI 升至 50 以 上 ， 氧 化 铝 价 格 维 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 | --- | --- | |------------------|-------------------------------| | | 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | | | | | 基础化工 | 关注化工品涨价与新疆煤化工 | | 优于大市（维持） | 两条主线 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《十万亿元化债政策落地，看好 顺周期与内需复苏》， 2024.11.10 2.《美国大选落地，化工影响几 何？》，2024.11.10 3.《——基础化工行业 2024 年三 季报总结-化工盈利或筑底，产能 周期见拐点》，2024.11.5 4.《民爆 9 月数据向好，政策利好 生物航煤》，2024.11.4 5.《中爆协 9 月数 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业周报 商贸零售 2024 年 11 月 17 日 商贸零售 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 2023/1…2023/1…2023/1… 商贸 零售 沪深 300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《中国中免：盈利能力略有下降， 静待客单价复苏》，2024.11.13 2.《——商社周报 11.10-大选落地后 关税担忧升级，出口链影响几何？》， 2024.11.10 3.《——商贸社服周专题 1103-为何 达播主导今年双十一？》，2024.11.3 4.《——商社周报 1026-宠物三季报 总结：板块延续高景气，双十一开售 数据亮眼》，2024.10.26 5.《——商贸社服周报 1020-双十一 首周总结：胶原成分爆发，品牌表现 分化》，2024.10.20 双十一总结：美妆赛道国货领先， 宠食赛道高景气度 ——商贸社服周专题 1117 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 周专题：2024 年双十一结束，平台端 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------------| | 有色金属 | 有色金属周报：取消铜、铝等产 | | 优于大市（维持） | 品出口退税，氧化铝价格维持强 | | 证券分析师 | | | 翟堃 | 势 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《有色金属周报：化债政策落地， 氧化铝价格维持强势》，2024.11.10 2.《氧化铝深度：供给扰动短期难解， 价格高位有望延续》，2024.11.7 3.《有色金属周报：PMI 升至 50 以 上 ， 氧 化 铝 ...

证券分析师 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|----------------------------------|-------| | | | | | 基础化工 | 叶酸价格大幅上涨，本轮行情有望超 | | | | | | | 优于大市（维持） | 预期 | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：据百川盈孚，11 月 15 日，叶酸主流接单价上涨 5-15 元/公斤至 205-215 元 /公斤，部分高位报价上调至 220-230 元/公斤。本轮涨价之前市场主流接单价在 172-176 元/公斤左右，前期市场库存量较低，叶酸经销商市场报价大幅提升。 点评： 叶酸用途相对刚性，下游需求稳定增长。叶酸（又称维生素 B9）是生物健康所必 须的水溶性维生素，对包括细胞生长和发育、DNA 合成和红细胞生成等多种功能 至关重要，需求具备相对刚性。从需求结构来看，饲料行业是叶酸最大的下游应用 领域，占比约 43%，2019-2023 年，我国饲料产量从 2.17 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | |------------------|----------------------------------| | | | | 基础化工 | 国家政策大力推动，新疆煤化工未来 | | | | | 优于大市（维持） | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《十万亿元化债政策落地，看好顺 周期与内需复苏》，2024.11.10 2.《美国大选落地，化工影响几 何？》，2024.11.10 3.《——基础化工行业 2024 年三季 报总结-化工盈利或筑底，产能周期 见拐点》，2024.11.5 4.《民爆 9 月数据向好，政策利好生 物航煤》，2024.11.4 5.《中爆协 9 月数 ...