证券研究报告 | 行业周报 道信 2024 年 11 月 03 日 | --- | --- | |-----------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 通信 | 美国宣布对华投资限制,聚焦硬和 | | 优于大市 (维持) | 投资机会 | 证券分析师 投资要点: 。 1.投资策略 1.1 中美科技博弈激化,美国禁止对华半导体、Al 等领域进行投资。美国政 府 10月28日宣布,限制美国企业和美国人在半导体、人工智能（AI）和量子领域 向中国投资的新规将从 2025年 1 月起生效。根据此前公布的概要,确定了内容并 做出了最终决定。希望防止有可能用于军事的尖端技术通过民间投资流入中国。我 们判断,此次美国政策更新标志着中美科技博弈的进一步激化,同时也将为我国国 产替代,尤其是军事及其他领域的尖端技术提供更多上升空间。1、中东传呼机事 件、英特尔安全问题以及精密地图数据泄露事件暴露国际供应链存在可信皮风险, 对于国内敏感、尖端领域进行国产替代存在必要性;2、《北斗规模应用三年行动计 划(2023-2025)》要求 2024-12-31 前停用所有不支 ...

邪健全 资格编号: S0120523100001 邮箱: dengjq@tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 资格编号：S0120523100002 郎箱: zhaoyy5@tebon.com.cn 赵启政 资格编号: S0120523120002 部箱: zhaoqz@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 秦梓月 邮箱：qinzy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 沪深300 26% 17% 9% 0% -9% -17% -26% 24-03 2024-07 -34% 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《双环传动:2024Q3 业绩稳健增 长,降本增效成效显著》,2024.10.30 2.《明新旭勝 (605068.SH): 产品结 构变化,费用及折旧增加,短期业绩 承压》, 2024.10.30 3.《长安汽车(000625.SZ): 销量下滑 及合联营企业投资亏损影响 Q3 业 绩，新能源&智能化转型加速》, 2024.10.30 4.《伯特利(603596.SH):业绩稳步 增长，主要产品持续放量》, 2024.10.29 5.《松原股份 (300893.SZ): 业绩稳 健增长，毛利率短期承 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for Cambricon (688256 SH) [1] Core Views - Cambricon's revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 reached 190 million yuan, a YoY increase of 27 1%, indicating a recovery in market expansion despite being on the "entity list" [2] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 51 2%, a QoQ decline of 14 9 percentage points, primarily due to procurement costs [3] - Cambricon's R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 660 million yuan, reflecting continued high investment in innovation [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1 476 billion yuan, 3 491 billion yuan, and 5 003 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of -748 million yuan, -55 million yuan, and 504 million yuan [5] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Cambricon achieved revenue of 120 million yuan, a QoQ increase of 208 3%, and a net loss of 190 million yuan, a QoQ reduction of 110 million yuan [3] - Prepaid accounts and inventory increased significantly, with prepaid accounts reaching 850 million yuan and inventory reaching 1 02 billion yuan at the end of Q3 2024, indicating active preparation for future deliveries [3] - The company's R&D team consists of 727 members, with 78 82% holding master's degrees or higher, supporting its technological innovation [4] Industry and Market Performance - Cambricon operates in the electronics/semiconductor industry, with its stock price showing significant growth, including a 380% increase in market performance [1] - The company's absolute and relative stock price increases were 84 77% and 79 76%, respectively, compared to the CSI 300 index [1] Strategic Adjustments - Cambricon is developing a new generation of intelligent processor microarchitecture and instruction sets, focusing on optimizing scenarios such as natural language processing, video image generation, and recommendation systems [4] - The company has adjusted its R&D strategy by suspending projects with lower expected gross margins, which is expected to alleviate financial pressure in the short term and improve profitability in the long term [4]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 陕西煤业(601225.SH) 2024 年 10 月 31 日 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|--------------------------| | 买入(维持) | 陕西煤业(601225.SH):盈利 | | 所属行业:煤炭/煤炭开采 当前价格(元): 24.72 | 维持稳健,煤电成长未来可 | | 证券分析师 | | | | | 程 堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 郎箱: zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢估圆 邮箱：xiejy@tebon.com.cn 市场景观 20% 0% | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|---------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | 资料来源:聚源数据、德邦研究所 | | | | | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -7.01 | 0.68 | 8.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue and profit growth in 2024 Q1-Q3, with revenue reaching 12.558 billion yuan (+45.34% YoY) and net profit attributable to parent company reaching 2.707 billion yuan (+63.53% YoY) [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 4.668 billion yuan (+47.29% YoY), with net profit attributable to parent company reaching 977 million yuan (+78.42% YoY) [3] - The company's second curve products, particularly "Dongpeng Bula," showed explosive growth, with Q1-Q3 revenue reaching 1.211 billion yuan (+292.11% YoY) and Q3 revenue accounting for 61% of the total [4] - The company is making significant progress in national expansion, with all regions outside Guangdong achieving over 40% YoY growth in Q3 2024 [4] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin improved to 45.05% in Q1-Q3 2024 (+2.53pct YoY) and 45.81% in Q3 2024 (+4.29pct YoY) [5] - Net profit margin increased to 21.56% in Q1-Q3 2024 (+2.40pct YoY) and 20.85% in Q3 2024 (+3.64pct YoY) [5] - The company's expense control improved, with sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios decreasing in Q1-Q3 2024 [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 16.18 billion yuan (+43.7% YoY) in 2024, 20.74 billion yuan (+28.1% YoY) in 2025, and 25.25 billion yuan (+21.8% YoY) in 2026 [6] - Net profit is forecasted to reach 3.24 billion yuan (+58.9% YoY) in 2024, 4.28 billion yuan (+32.1% YoY) in 2025, and 5.34 billion yuan (+24.7% YoY) in 2026 [6] - The company will continue to improve its national production and sales network, strengthen channel penetration, and actively develop other health-functional beverages [6] Market Performance - The company's stock showed strong performance with absolute gains of 12.38%, 22.07%, and 20.17% over 1M, 2M, and 3M respectively [2] - Relative gains were 7.32%, 4.92%, and 4.69% over the same periods [2]

2024.1.28 资料来源：公司年报（2022-2023），德邦研究所 备注：净利润为归属母公司所有者的净利润 买入(维持) 所属行业:社会服务/酒店餐饮 当前价格(元): 26.95 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱: yidy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 铝江酒店 沪深300 23% 11% 0% -11% -23% -34% -46% 2024-10 2024-02 2024-06 2023-10 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|--------|-------|-------| | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -5.37 | 12.19 | 21.39 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -10.43 | -4.96 | 5.91 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《商社周报 0310: 38 大促国货持续 崛起，多品牌积极推新》，2024.3.10 2.《商社周报 0303:北美零售库存低 位, ...

资料来源：公司年报（2022-2023），德邦研究所 备注：净利润为归属母公司所有者的净利润 买入(维持) 所属行业:医药生物/中药 || 当前价格(元): 14.87 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号: S0120524060001 郎箱: zhouxm@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 桂林三金 26% 17% 000 0% -9% -17% -26% 2024-06 2023-10 2024-02 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 2.84 | 12.06 | 21.09 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -2.18 | -5.04 | 5.66 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，紧深数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《桂林三金 (002275.SZ): Q3 业绩 短期承压,看好后续一线+二线品种共 同放量》，2023.10.31 桂林三金 24 年三季报点评: 键增长,复苏态势明显 投资买点 。 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Jiangnan Chemical (002226.SZ) [1][6]. Core Views - Jiangnan Chemical is a leading player in the civil explosives industry, backed by the Weapon Industry Group, and is positioned for growth through dual-core operations in civil explosives and new energy [34][36]. - The company has a significant production capacity, with explosives capacity reaching 654,500 tons and industrial detonators capacity at 76.7 million units as of H1 2024, placing it at the forefront of the industry [34][36]. - The report highlights the company's strategic acquisitions and asset injections from the Weapon Industry Group, which are expected to enhance its market position and profitability [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Growth Potential - Jiangnan Chemical, established in 1985, has evolved into a major player in the civil explosives sector, with a history of mergers and acquisitions that have bolstered its production capacity and market presence [34][36]. - The company is actively pursuing further acquisitions, with a commitment from the Weapon Industry Group to achieve overall listing of its civil explosive assets by the end of 2025, indicating ongoing growth potential [34][36]. 2. Market Dynamics and Regional Performance - The civil explosives market in China is experiencing varied performance across regions, with some areas like Xinjiang and Tibet showing significant growth, while others face declines due to high debt risks [3][49][56]. - The report notes that the overall production and sales value of civil explosives in China decreased by 6.64% and 6.18% respectively in the first eight months of 2024, but profits increased by 12.30% [3][49]. 3. Supply Chain and Industry Trends - The civil explosives industry is seeing increased concentration, with expectations for the CR10 concentration to rise from 49% in 2020 to over 60% by 2025, benefiting leading companies like Jiangnan Chemical [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the scarcity of core resources in the industry, which is expected to lead to higher valuations for key players as new capacity approvals are restricted [4][5]. 4. Financial Performance and Forecast - Jiangnan Chemical's revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.5% from 2015 to 2023, with a projected net profit of 862 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [6][40]. - The report forecasts continued growth in net profit for 2025 and 2026, with expected figures of 984 million yuan and 1.255 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong future performance [6][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance remains under pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and an expected recovery driven by its computing power layout [1][4] - The company reported a revenue of 590 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 43.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -70 million yuan, with losses widening by 30 million yuan year-on-year [4] - The company is actively expanding its product and market lines, launching new products such as smart audio glasses and Bluetooth headsets, and is also developing new PCIe 5.0 SSDs and expanding its DDR5 memory product line [5] - The company is positioning itself in the computing power application field, collaborating with local government and industry leaders to enhance data center construction and digital transformation [5][6] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenues of 740 million yuan, with net profits projected at -70 million yuan, improving to 200 million yuan in 2025 and 1 billion yuan in 2026 [6] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 7.5%, with a gradual increase to 11.3% by 2026 [7] - The company's total assets are projected to be 1.24 billion yuan in 2024, with a total market value of approximately 4.66 billion yuan [7] - The company has a total share capital of 200.4 million shares, with a current price of 23.05 yuan [1][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a significant absolute increase of 23.37% over the past month, outperforming the market [3] - The relative performance against the CSI 300 index indicates a strong performance, with a relative increase of 17.40% over the same period [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving a revenue of 2.47 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 58.1%, and a net profit of 290 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 145.5% [2][3]. - The growth is primarily driven by the increasing demand in the smart wearable and smart home sectors, as well as the continuous expansion of the smartwatch market [3][4]. - The company has successfully launched its new generation smart wearable chip, BES2800, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [4][5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product array and has made significant progress in its AIoT platform strategy, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.47 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 33.8%, and a net profit of 290 million yuan [3][4]. - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported a revenue of 940 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 44.0%, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.2% [3]. - The company’s R&D expenses for Q1-Q3 2024 amounted to 470 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 29.1% [5]. - The projected revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to reach 3.4 billion yuan, 4.28 billion yuan, and 5.24 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 420 million yuan, 560 million yuan, and 770 million yuan [6][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has been actively expanding its market share in the smart wearable and smart home sectors, with a focus on high-end smartwatches [4][5]. - The introduction of new products, including Wi-Fi 6 chips, is aimed at penetrating additional markets such as smartphones and tablets [4]. - The company’s long-term commitment to R&D is expected to drive future growth, particularly in AI-driven products [5][6].