[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 03 月 02 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•汽车 汽车行业周报（2.24-2.28） 特斯拉 FSD 入华落地，高阶智驾渗透率提升 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑连声 执业证号：S1250522040001 电话：010-57758531 邮箱：zlans@swsc.com.cn 分析师：冯安琪 执业证号：S1250524050003 电话：021-58351905 邮箱：faz@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 股票家数 | 264 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 45,105.21 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 38,889.47 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 21.87 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 -8% 2% 13% 23% 34% 45% 24/2 24/4 24/6 24/8 24/10 24/12 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qiaqia Food (002557) with a target price of 34.02 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 26.37 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 71.3 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.5 billion CNY, up 6.2% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a revenue of 23.7 billion CNY, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 23.8% due to increased competition and rising costs [7][8]. - The company is focusing on category innovation and channel expansion, with a strategic emphasis on high-quality and cost-effective products. The nut category is expected to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates projected at 10.0%, 9.0%, and 8.0% for 2024-2026 [8][9]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the long term, driven by scale effects and successful product launches in new categories such as nut milk and peanuts [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 68.06 billion CNY, with a slight decline of 1.13%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 71.31 billion CNY, 75.65 billion CNY, and 79.52 billion CNY, respectively, indicating growth rates of 4.79%, 6.08%, and 5.11% [2][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 8.03 billion CNY, with forecasts of 8.52 billion CNY, 9.59 billion CNY, and 10.75 billion CNY for the following years, reflecting growth rates of -17.75%, 6.19%, 12.48%, and 12.10% [2][10]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates an improvement in the overall net profit margin for 2024, which increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. However, the Q4 net profit margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year due to rising costs and increased marketing expenses [7][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 26.8% in 2023 to 31.2% by 2026, driven by lower raw material costs and scale effects in the nut category [10][13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its market presence by penetrating lower-tier cities and enhancing its product offerings in the nut and seed categories. The strategy includes increasing SKU counts in bulk channels and promoting high-margin products through e-commerce [8][9]. - The competitive landscape is challenging, with intense price competition in the gift box segment and reduced foot traffic in key sales channels impacting revenue growth [7][8]. Valuation - The report assigns a PE ratio of 18 for 2025, leading to a target price of 34.02 CNY, which reflects a favorable valuation compared to peers in the industry [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qiaqia Food (002557) with a target price of 34.02 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 26.37 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 71.3 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.5 billion CNY, up 6.2% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a revenue of 23.7 billion CNY, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 23.8% due to increased competition and rising costs [7][8]. - The company is focusing on category innovation and channel expansion, with a strategic emphasis on high-quality and cost-effective product offerings. The nut category is expected to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates projected at 10.0%, 9.0%, and 8.0% for 2024-2026 [8][9]. - The overall profitability is expected to improve in the long term, driven by scale effects and cost management, despite short-term pressures from rising raw material prices and increased marketing expenses during peak seasons [7][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 68.06 billion CNY - 2024E: 71.31 billion CNY (4.79% growth) - 2025E: 75.65 billion CNY (6.08% growth) - 2026E: 79.52 billion CNY (5.11% growth) [2][10] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 8.03 billion CNY - 2024E: 8.52 billion CNY (6.19% growth) - 2025E: 9.59 billion CNY (12.48% growth) - 2026E: 10.75 billion CNY (12.10% growth) [2][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 1.58 CNY - 2024E: 1.68 CNY - 2025E: 1.89 CNY - 2026E: 2.12 CNY [2][10] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 14.52% - 2024E: 14.35% - 2025E: 14.53% - 2026E: 14.65% [2][10] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2023A: 17 - 2024E: 16 - 2025E: 14 - 2026E: 12 [2][10] Market Position and Competitive Analysis - Qiaqia Food's product innovation and market promotion capabilities have been validated in the nut and seed categories. The company is expected to open new growth avenues through the introduction of new product lines such as nut milk and peanuts [9]. - The company is actively expanding its distribution channels, particularly in lower-tier cities, and increasing the number of SKUs in bulk channels to enhance market penetration [8][9].

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 03 月 01 日 证券研究报告•宏观简评报告 数据点评 重回扩张区间，节后复工成色如何？ ——2025 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评 [Table_Summary] 制造业 PMI：景气度再次扩张，产需两端均有改善。春节假期后，企业陆续复 工复产，生产经营活动有所加快，2025 年 2月制造业 PMI 较 1月回升 1.1个 百分点至 50.2%，再度回到扩张区间，略高于市场预期。从季节性表现来看， 2015 年-2024年（剔除 2020年）2月的平均制造业 PMI 为 50.28%，2025年 2 月制造业 PMI略低于季节性水平。从需求端看，前期政策组合落地见效，人 工智能等新产业发展加快，2月新订单指数较上月回升 1.9个百分点至 51.1%， 重返临界线上；从生产端看，市场需求回升，企业复工复产加快，2 月生产指 数回升 2.7个百分点至 52.5%。2月，生产指数高于新订单指数 1.4个百分点， 生产指数的回升幅度大于新订单指数。从企业预期来看，企业对后市保持乐观 态度，2月生产经营活动预期指数较上月小幅回落 0.8个百分点至 54.5% ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 28 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（2.24-2.28） AI+迎来投资机遇，德国大选结果出炉 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：农业新质生产力引发关注，AI+迎来投资机遇。2 月 23 日，2025 年中 央一号文件发布，首次提出"农业新质生产力"概念，强调科技创新在农业现 代化中的核心作用，政策红利催化农业板块大涨，农业科技类企业投资机会凸 显；25日，中国央行开展 3000亿元 MLF操作，净回笼 2000亿元，延续精准 调控市场流动性的策略，关注未来降准可能性；同日，国务院总理李强调研中 国电信、中国联通、中国移动，强调科技创新引领产业发展，AI+产业在政策 与技术双轮驱动下迎来新的投资机遇，人工智能、云计算、通信设备等领域有 望获得持续增长动力；25 日，金融监管总局与国家发改委联合召开支持小微 企业融资协调工作机制推进会，强调强化融资支持，推动"直达基层、快速便 捷、利率适宜"的融资机制，小微企业的融资环境有望进一步改善。 海外：德国大选推动财政政策调整，美国众议院通过减税计划。2 月 23 日， ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 03 月 01 日 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（2.24-2.28） 短期回调，仍看好创新主线 2025年围绕新质生产力和高质量发展大背景，看好医药创新+出海、主题投资、 红利三大主线。 投资要点 西南证券研究院 相关研究 [Table_Author] 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：陈辰 执业证号：S1250524120002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：chch@swsc.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 369 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 47,370.32 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 42,688.94 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 30.9 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 12.5 | 创新+出海主线——创新药：政策端，2024 年 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 03 月 02 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（0224-0302） 各地区加速布局机器人产业集群，关注区域性机会 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn 联系人：叶明辉 电话：13909990246 邮箱：ymh@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 -13% -2% 8% 18% 28% 38% 24/2 24/4 24/6 24/8 24/10 24/12 25/2 机械设备 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | Table_BaseData] [股票家数 | 440 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 37,585.63 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 8.33, compared to the current price of HKD 6.88 [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for clean energy, particularly in the context of global green emission reduction initiatives. The demand for natural gas is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a 50% increase in global LNG demand by 2040 [6][24]. - The company's clean energy segment has shown substantial growth, with new orders for waterborne clean energy increasing by 128% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [6][36]. - Revenue and profit are on an upward trajectory, with a commitment to increasing dividends to enhance shareholder returns [6][51]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, CIMC Enric (中集安瑞科), is a key player in the energy sector, providing comprehensive solutions in clean energy, chemical environment, and liquid food equipment. It has a full industry chain layout in clean energy, focusing on natural gas and hydrogen [10][12]. Clean Energy Demand - Global initiatives for reducing emissions are driving the demand for clean energy. The average annual increase in natural gas demand is about 60 billion cubic meters, with LNG demand expected to rise significantly [6][24][20]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 23.63 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.3% from 2020 to 2023. The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from HKD 5.8 billion in 2020 to HKD 11.1 billion in 2023 [39][40]. Revenue Growth Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to HKD 26.45 billion in 2024, HKD 30.65 billion in 2025, and HKD 34.88 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to reach HKD 10.9 billion, HKD 13 billion, and HKD 15.4 billion respectively [55]. Dividend Policy - The company has progressively increased its dividend payout ratio, reaching 50% in 2023, with a dividend of HKD 0.3 per share [51][53]. Business Segments - The clean energy segment accounted for 63.1% of total revenue in 2023, with significant contributions from both waterborne and land-based clean energy solutions. The chemical environment segment saw a decline, while the liquid food segment remained stable [12][40].

[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 02 月 25 日 证券研究报告•公司研究报告 中集安瑞科（3899.HK）交通运输 目标价：8.33 港元 买入 （首次） 当前价：6.88 港元 清洁能源需求旺盛，造船利润加速释放 | 指标/年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 23626.28 | 26445.84 | 30653.34 | 34878.05 | | 增长率 | 20.53% | 11.93% | 15.91% | 13.78% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 1113.97 | 1091.79 | 1303.51 | 1541.18 | | 增长率 | 5.58% | -1.99% | 19.39% | 18.23% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.64 | 0.76 | | 净资产收益率 | 9.92% | 9.16% | 10.23% | 11.24% | | PE | 11.56 | 11.80 | 9.88 ...

Core Insights - The GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to remain around 5%, with a weighted average of local GDP growth targets at approximately 5.34%, down from 5.61% in 2024, indicating a more conservative outlook from local "Two Sessions" [3][8] - Investment growth is projected to be relatively stable at an average target of 6.6%, while social consumption is expected to decline to an average target of 5.6%, and export growth targets are anticipated to drop significantly by about 3.4 percentage points to 6.1% [3][9] - Fiscal policy is expected to adopt a more aggressive stance through measures such as increasing the deficit ratio to 3.5-4%, issuing long-term special bonds, and expanding local government special bond issuance, with an estimated issuance scale of 1.5 trillion yuan [3][5] - Monetary policy may see adjustments with a potential reserve requirement ratio cut of around 25 basis points in the first half of the year, as the central bank aims to stabilize the currency and prevent excessive fluctuations [4][5] Economic Growth Targets - The economic growth targets for various provinces show that 13 provinces maintain their 2024 targets, while 15 provinces have lowered their targets for 2025, particularly in western regions [3][8] - Specific provinces like Hebei, Liaoning, and Tianjin have increased their growth targets compared to 2024, indicating localized optimism [3][8] Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors related to innovation, technology, and modernization, with a focus on the "first-store economy" and AI applications [5][11] - The "first-store economy" is expected to thrive in diverse consumption scenarios, particularly in retail, digital technology, and cultural tourism, with major cities leading in new store openings [5][11] - The AI sector is projected to see significant growth, with the core industry expected to exceed 1.73 trillion yuan by 2035, accounting for over 30% of the global market [5][11] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy will focus on three main strategies: increasing the deficit ratio, issuing long-term special bonds, and enhancing local government special bond issuance, which is expected to improve the efficiency of fund utilization [3][5] - The monetary policy will remain flexible, with potential adjustments based on domestic and international economic conditions, aiming to balance growth and stability [4][5] Sectoral Focus - The report highlights the importance of digital economy initiatives across various provinces, emphasizing the integration of digital technologies in traditional industries and the promotion of AI applications [11][12] - Provinces are encouraged to enhance their digital infrastructure and foster innovation-driven economic growth, with specific actions outlined for sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, and environmental sustainability [11][12]